Recently, I wrote about Matt Vinc and Nick Rose and how their career stat lines are quite similar, other than the Goaltender of the Year awards they’ve won, where Vinc is ahead 8-0. My initial thesis was that their stat lines were very similar but Vinc has had more post-season success, which implies that the teams he’s been on have been better than Rose’s. So can we conclude that Rose, with similar stats on worse teams, is actually the better goalie? The conclusion, based on the GSAA (Goals Saved Above Average) stat, was that no, Vinc has been the better goalie.

But how does the GSAA stat tell us this? Specifically, if Nick Rose’s save percentage is very close to Matt Vinc’s, why is Vinc’s GSAA so much higher than Rose’s? Today, we’re going to see if we can answer that question by looking at this stat, how it’s calculated, and what it really means.

For the examples below, we’re using numbers from the 2023 NLL season. In 2023, Rose had a save percentage of 80.47% and a GSAA of 23.50. Vinc had a save percentage of 80.30% and a GSAA of 25.16. We can see that Rose’s save percentage was actually higher than Vinc’s, but he had a lower GSAA. Let’s find out why.

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I happened to notice a while ago that Matt Vinc and Nick Rose had very similar stats lines over their careers. Vinc’s career GAA is 10.73, Rose’s is 10.53. Vinc’s save percentage is 78.8%, Rose’s is 78.6%. Each was ahead of the other in these stats in some seasons. But Vinc has won an amazing eight Goaltender of the Year awards and is widely considered the GOAT, while Rose has been a finalist four times but hasn’t won any. Does it make sense that Vinc’s stats were that similar to Rose’s but Vinc has received far more accolades?

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