I imagine the last few weeks have been a nightmare for NLL GMs, and the next couple won’t be much better. The second expansion draft in two years is coming up in a couple of weeks so each GM had to go through their roster and choose eleven players to protect, knowing they could lose anyone not on that list. Then you need to call more than half of your players and tell them they’re not protected. Then you will lose two of them and need to adjust your team afterwards. Luckily they have five months or so before the season starts to do that. Just like last year’s draft, some GMs will have some big holes to fill after the draft, others might barely notice the difference.
This is the time when we look back over the season and pick the players who were the best of 2019. It’s also fun to see how close my
random guesses predictions from the beginning of the season were. Every year, I pick a player for each team who I think will have an exceptional year, so let’s take a look at my “Look out for…” picks from the East and West previews as well.
- Dane Dobbie
- Matt Vinc
- Callum Crawford
- Mark Matthews
- Dan Dawson
I don’t always like picking the guy with the highest point total as the MVP. It seems too easy and since I’m known to be a stats guy, it looks like I just went with the big numbers and ignored everything else. But this year, Dane Dobbie epitomized “most valuable” in every way. Not only did he lead the league in points (and finished second in goals, assists, and power-play goals), but he blew away his previous career high by 25 points. Most importantly, he carried the Roughnecks at the beginning of the season when Curtis Dickson, Wes Berg, and Jesse King were all out.
Goaltender of the Year
Original pick: Dillon Ward
- Matt Vinc
- Mike Poulin
- Frank Scigliano
- Christian Del Bianco
- Dillon Ward
Vinc led the league in GAA and save percentage among starters. He kept his opponents to single-digits seven times – and three of those were five or fewer. But most importantly he turned the Bandits struggling defense from last year into the stingiest in the league. Of course, he didn’t do it by himself but his play and the confidence he inspires in the rest of the defenders was obviously a huge part of that transformation.
Transition Player of the Year
Original pick: Challen Rogers
- Challen Rogers
- Steve Priolo
- Kiel Matisz
- Zach Currier
- Tyler Pace
Rogers plays excellent defense, is almost always the first guy up the floor in transition, and took many shifts on offense. He played on the man-up and man-down, and when watching the Rock play, it seems that he’s just always on the floor. He does it all, does it all well, and always looks like he’s having fun while doing it.
Defensive Player of the Year
Original pick: Graeme Hossack
- Graeme Hossack
- Kyle Rubisch
- Brad Kri
- David Brock
- Mike Messenger
Hossack and Rubisch are both masters of the stick check. They don’t just make it difficult for offensive players to get to or even see the net, leaving them with a bad shot or no shot at all, though they’re great at that too. These guys prefer to simply strip them of the ball and toss it to one of their teammates in transition. It’s clean, it’s quick, it gives your team a chance to score, and if you watch these guys do it, you might think it’s easy. It’s not.
Rookie of the Year
- Austin Staats
- Steph Charbonneau
- Kyle Killen
- Trevor Baptiste
- Ian MacKay
Before he got injured, Staats was on pace for 78 points which was 17 short of the rookie record (held by his big brother). Other rookies have scored more goals and picked up more loosies, but few have had the overall impact that Austin Staats had this season. His goal-scoring, energy, and obvious love for the game was the talk of the league all season. In a non-traditional lacrosse market, having a young, exciting, dynamic player like Staats had to be a huge help in trying to build their brand and fanbase. Hopefully he is fully recovered from his ACL surgery by next season because his career will be an amazing one to watch.
- Casey Jackson
- Matt Hossack
- Bryan Cole
- Greg Downing
- Keegan Bal
When you think of the Seals offense, you think Staats, Dawson, Billings, Buchanan, but Casey Jackson doesn’t jump to mind. But Jackson led the Seals in goals and after playing all of four games in his career before this season, fit in very nicely among the rookie phenom and veteran scorers.
Comeback Player of the Year
- Garrett Billings
- Jordan McBride
- Tyler Digby
- Dan Coates
- Cam Holding
Billings missed all of 2018 and only played four games in 2017. Between work commitments and injuries, it seemed that his NLL career might be over. But Billings matched the points total from his 2010 rookie season and looked a lot like the old Billings, which was likely a little scary for Seals opponents. He certainly scored some beautiful goals but as we’ve come to expect, in every game he played he had more assists than goals, sometimes many more.
Les Bartley Award
Original pick: Pat Coyle
- Patrick Merrill
- Matt Sawyer
- John Tavares/Rich Kilgour
As a GM, Merrill put together a great bunch of players. As a coach, he turned them into a great team. Of course having vets like Dawson, Billings, and Buchanan on his team really helped too, but clearly the Seals players bought (and dove) in early in the season and that teamwork was obvious all year.
GM of the Year
Original pick: Steve Dietrich
- Patrick Merrill
- Steve Dietrich
- John Arlotta
When you look at an expansion team’s roster, you usually hope that the team might be pretty good in a couple of years. The Seals looked very good from the beginning and didn’t disappoint. Even after the season started, Merrill wasn’t done. He brought in Paul Dawson to give the defense even more toughness and leadership. He took chances on Garrett Billings and Kyle Hartzell and they paid off. When he lost Austin Staats, he brought in Joe Walters. He put together a great mix of leaders who could still produce on the floor and a solid young group that can be the core of this team for years.
East: My picks were Buffalo, Georgia, Toronto, New England, Rochester, Philadelphia. In that order. Nailed it.
West: My picks were Saskatchewan, Calgary, Colorado, San Diego, Vancouver. Move San Diego to second and I nailed the west too, but I really only got two right: first and last.
Look out for…
I got some of the above picks right, and missed on others. But of the eleven below, I’d say I nailed five (Duch, Buchanan, Staats, Digby, Lintner) and got four more pretty close. Only two were really wrong.
Calgary: Rhys Duch. Calling that a win. He didn’t get back into the 90’s in points, but then he wasn’t expected to be the guy on the Roughnecks like he was on the Stealth. He helped set up the guy (Dobbie) and the other guy (Dickson) and had a great year.
Colorado: Tim Edwards. 53.5% at the dot this year, fourth among face-off guys. Not a bad season at all.
San Diego: Kyle Buchanan. 67 points, 28 goals, a veteran presence and lots of hustle – exactly as expected from Buchanan.
Saskatchewan: Travis Cornwall. We all thought he was brought in to basically replace his brother Jeff on the transition but he played more of a defensive role for the Rush. As such, the numbers don’t tell us much but the fact that Cornwall played all 18 games for the first time in his career tells you what the Rush coaching staff thought of his play.
Vancouver: Colton and Zack Porter. More defenders so the numbers don’t tell you much but these guys were tough on opposing forwards. Not big guys (each is 5’8″) but tenacious. The Warriors players voted Zack as their rookie of the year.
Buffalo: Shawn Evans. 94 points, which is excellent for most but only very good for Evans. Like Duch, he had to get used to not being the guy on the Bandits offense but his presence helped make them one of the strongest in the league.
Georgia: Randy Staats. 96 points makes this the best year of his career, narrowly eclipsing his 95 in his rookie year.
New England: Tyler Digby. 72 points in 17 games, almost back to his 74 in 18 back in 2015. In fact, he had a higher points-per-game average so I’d call that a career year.
Philadelphia: Brett Hickey. Would have been a career year for Hickey, I’m sure, if he didn’t get injured after only three games.
Rochester: Pat Saunders. Only played four games.
Toronto: Dan Lintner. Played in all eighteen games and set career highs in goals, assists, points, loose balls, and CTOs.
I love doing this every year. There are only a few weeks left in the season, so it’s time to look at the possible-but-unlikely playoff scenarios. In most cases below, I’ve listed a single way that the specified outcome can happen, but there may be more than one.
Just for clarification, “win out” means a team wins all of the rest of their games (also known as “runs the table”), while “lose out” means that a team loses all the rest of their games (also known as “defecating in one’s sleeping apparatus”).
Swarm and Bandits tie for first
Swarm win out, and the Bandits win out except they lose to Toronto. Then Georgia and Buffalo finish tied for first and tied 1-1 in the season series as well. The Swarm would end up with a 10-3 division record while the Bandits would be 9-4, so the Swarm finish first.
Rock win the east
Rock win out. Bandits lose any one game and Georgia loses any two. Then the Rock are 13-5, the Bandits are at best 13-5 (and Toronto owns the tiebreaker), and the Swarm are at best 12-6.
Black Wolves win the east
Black Wolves win out. Bandits lose out, Georgia loses three and Toronto loses one. Then the Bandits and Black Wolves are both 12-6, 1-1 against each other, and 8-5 in their division. The tiebreaker in this case is head-to-head goal differential. The Bandits beat the Black Wolves 15-5 in January, so the only way the Black Wolves win the division is if all those things listed above happen and they beat the Bandits by more than ten goals on April 20.
Four-way tie at 12-6 in the east
New England wins out, Buffalo loses out, Georgia wins one and loses the other two, and Toronto wins out except for a loss to New England. Then those four are all 12-6. Georgia wins the first tiebreaker, New England wins the second, and Toronto wins the third, leaving Buffalo in fourth.
Three-way tie at 8-10 in the east
Toronto loses out, Philly wins out, and New England beats Toronto but loses all the rest of their games. Then those three are tied for third at 8-10 while the Bandits and Swarm finish first and second in some order. New England wins the three-way tiebreaker and finishes third, and Toronto wins the tiebreaker against Philadelphia and takes fourth. The Wings and Knighthawks are out.
Rush finish last in the west
If the Rush lose out (including one to Vancouver) and the Warriors win two of their other three games, the Rush are last. Let me say that again: at the end of March, it’s still possible for the Saskatchewan Rush to finish last in their division. I think the Rush clinched a playoff berth in February last year.
Warriors win the west
OK, this one is complicated. Vancouver wins out. Rush lose to Philly and twice to Colorado but beat San Diego and Calgary. San Diego loses out. Calgary beats San Diego and Philly but loses to Georgia and Saskatchewan. Colorado loses to Vancouver, San Diego, and Rochester but beat Saskatchewan twice. In that case, the Warriors win the west at 9-9, while the other four teams are all 8-10. That completes the proposed scenario but we still need to find out what happens, so we need to break the four-way tie.
The first tiebreaker is each team’s record against the other teams involved in the tiebreaker, but that doesn’t help here. Colorado and Saskatchewan would be 5-4 while San Diego and Calgary would be 4-5. The second tiebreaker is each team’s record within the division, in which case Saskatchewan wins at 9-3. Thus the Rush finish second, and we go to a three-way tiebreaker.
Again, the first is not helpful as each team is 3-3 against the other two. Back to the division record where the Seals are 8-4 and so they come third. The final tiebreaker is won by Colorado with a 2-1 record over the Roughnecks. Colorado finishes fourth and Calgary is out.
Seals finish first in the league
If San Diego wins out, that would put them at 14-4 and give them a win over Buffalo, which means the best Buffalo could do is also 14-4. With that win, San Diego would own the tiebreaker, so all San Diego has to do to finish first overall is to win out. No other conditions need to be met.
Four way tie for first in the west
San Diego loses out except they beat Georgia. The Rush beat Vancouver, San Diego, and Calgary but lose to Colorado twice and Philadelphia. Calgary beats San Diego and Philly and loses to Georgia and Saskatchewan. Colorado beats Saskatchewan twice and San Diego but loses to Rochester. Then all four are 9-9 while the Warriors are at best 7-11. Interestingly, the tiebreaker scenario listed above (under “Warriors win the west”) works out exactly the same way, so we have Rush, Seals, Mammoth, Roughnecks, and Warriors.
Surprising things happen every year in every sport. This is partially why we love sports, isn’t it? If all of your predictions were correct every year, it’d get pretty boring pretty quick. Here are my top ten surprises from the 2019 season so far. At least these were surprises to me, you will probably have different opinions. Feel free to leave a comment if I missed any.
Here it is: a complete summary of all the roster changes for each team, all in one place.
Note that these are the changes as of the final roster from last season, so a player might be listed as “In” even if he played for that team during 2018. And a player who’s injured but still part of that team will be listed as “out”. Not all teams have announced who’s on their IR, PUP, or holdout lists and only the Seals seem to have an “inactive roster”.
In: Matthew Bennett, Chase Fraser, Matt Gilray, Rich Kilgour (head coach), Ian MacKay, Ethan O’Connor, Corey Small, Matt Spanger, Bryce Sweeting, John Tavares (head coach), Matt Vinc
Out: Reid Acton, Alex Buque, Troy Cordingley (coach), Ryan Fournier, Vaughn Harris, Mitch Jones, Rich Kilgour (assistant coach), Bill O’Brien, Zack Reid, Mark Steenhuis, John Tavares (assistant coach)
IR: Jon Harnett, Mark Steenhuis
Practice Roster: Dallas Bridle, Zach Herreweyers, Devlin Shanahan
In: Brendan Bomberry, Holden Cattoni, Matt Dunn, Joel Tinney, Adam Wiedemann
Out: Jordan Hall, Warren Hill, Brayden Hill, Jesse King, Kiel Matisz, Ethan O’Connor, Joel White
Practice Roster: Tyler Ferreira, LeRoy Halftown, Steven Orleman, Craig Wende
In: Kevin Buchanan, Alex Buque, Tyler Digby, Greg Downing, Dereck Downs, Ryan Fournier, Darryl Gibson (offensive coach), JP Kealey, Jackson Nichimura, Seth Oakes, Andrew Suitor
Out: Aaron Bold, Kyle Buchanan, Mark Cockerton, Kevin Crowley, Dylan Evans, Anthony Joaquim, Tracey Kelusky (offensive coach), Johnny Powless, Derek Suddons, Jay Thorimbert
Practice Roster: Tal Bruno, Dave Emala, Ethan Woods
IR: Blaze Riorden
Practice Roster: Chris Collins, Isaiah Davis-Allen, Justin Guterding
In: James Barclay, Dylan Riley, Darryl Robertson, Pat Saunders, Luke Van Schepen, Warren Hill
Out: Frank Brown, Josh Currier, Eric Fannell, Billy Dee Smith, Sid Smith, Matt Vinc
IR: Sid Smith
PUP: Eric Fannell
Practice Roster: Cam Milligan, Leland Powless, Brandon Robinson
In: Sheldon Burns, Creighton Reid, Phil Caputo, Dan Craig, Riley Hutchcraft, Adam Jay, Johnny Powless, Brandon Slade
Out: Drew Belgrave, Sandy Chapman, Brett Hickey, Jordan Magnuson, Brodie Merrill, Brandon Miller, Reid Reinholdt, Dan Taylor
IR: Jordan Magnuson
PUP: Reid Reinholdt, Scott Dominey
Practice Roster: Mitch Gustavsen, AJ Kluck, Brad Lyons
Protected: Paul Rabil
In: Chris Boushy, Reece Callies, Rhys Duch, Jesse King, Tyler Richards, Eli Salama, Shane Simpson, Dan Taylor
Out: Wes Berg, Holden Cattoni, Curtis Dickson, Tyler Digby, Garrett McIntosh, Curtis Manning, Creighton Reid, Frank Scigliano
IR: Curtis Manning
PUP: Ryan Martel
Practice Roster: Carter Dickson
In: Brent Adams, Dan Coates, Pat Coyle (interim GM), Julian Garritano, John Lintz, Andrew McBride (assistant coach), Shawn Williams (assistant coach)
Out: Dan Carey (GM), Greg Downing, Chris Gill (assistant coach), Zack Greer, Dan Stroup (assistant coach), Bryce Sweeting
Practice Roster: Rowan Kelly, Kyle Killen, Steven Lee, Jeff Wittig
Practice Roster: Jules Heningburg, Nick Ossello, Mikie Schlosser
Inactive Roster: Garrett Billings, Zach Bryant, Austin Divitcos, Connor Fields, Marcus Holman, Quinn MacKay, Brandon Ranford
In: Travis Cornwall, Nick Finlay, Tyler Gaulton, Jordi Jones-Smith, Mason Pynn, Ryan McLean, Connor Robinson, Adam Shute, Jeremy Tallevi (assistant coach)
Out: Nic Bilic, Tyler Carlson, Robert Church, Jeff Cornwall, Dan Dawson, Ryan Dilks, Mike Messenger, Jimmy Quinlan (assistant coach), Adrian Sorichetti
Practice Roster: Zach Gould
In: Keegan Bal, Owen Barker, Aaron Bold, Jean-Luc Chetner, Tyler Codron, Chris Gill (coach), Mitch Jones, Dan Lomas, Jordan McBride, Joel McCready, Cole Porter, Zack Porter, Dan Richardson (GM), Justin Salt, Jarrett Toll
Out: Jamie Batley (coach), Tye Belanger, Casey Jackson, Brandon Clelland, Travis Cornwall, Rhys Duch, Brandon Goodwin, Doug Locker (GM), Seth Oakes, Chris O’Dougherty, Pat Saunders, Corey Small, Andrew Suitor, Cody Teichroeb
IR: Brandon Goodwin, Brody Eastwood, Andrew Gallant
PUP: Chris O’Dougherty
Practice Roster: Travis Burton, Dallas Wade, Nate Wade