Could happen…

I love doing this every year. There are only a few weeks left in the season, so it’s time to look at the possible-but-unlikely playoff scenarios. In most cases below, I’ve listed a single way that the specified outcome can happen, but there may be more than one.

Just for clarification, “win out” means a team wins all of the rest of their games (also known as “runs the table”), while “lose out” means that a team loses all the rest of their games (also known as “defecating in one’s sleeping apparatus”).

Swarm and Bandits tie for first

Swarm win out, and the Bandits win out except they lose to Toronto. Then Georgia and Buffalo finish tied for first and tied 1-1 in the season series as well. The Swarm would end up with a 10-3 division record while the Bandits would be 9-4, so the Swarm finish first.

Rock win the east

Rock win out. Bandits lose any one game and Georgia loses any two. Then the Rock are 13-5, the Bandits are at best 13-5 (and Toronto owns the tiebreaker), and the Swarm are at best 12-6.

Photo credit: Rene Johnston

Black Wolves win the east

Black Wolves win out. Bandits lose out, Georgia loses three and Toronto loses one. Then the Bandits and Black Wolves are both 12-6, 1-1 against each other, and 8-5 in their division. The tiebreaker in this case is head-to-head goal differential. The Bandits beat the Black Wolves 15-5 in January, so the only way the Black Wolves win the division is if all those things listed above happen and they beat the Bandits by more than ten goals on April 20.

Four-way tie at 12-6 in the east

New England wins out, Buffalo loses out, Georgia wins one and loses the other two, and Toronto wins out except for a loss to New England. Then those four are all 12-6. Georgia wins the first tiebreaker, New England wins the second, and Toronto wins the third, leaving Buffalo in fourth.

Three-way tie at 8-10 in the east

Toronto loses out, Philly wins out, and New England beats Toronto but loses all the rest of their games. Then those three are tied for third at 8-10 while the Bandits and Swarm finish first and second in some order. New England wins the three-way tiebreaker and finishes third, and Toronto wins the tiebreaker against Philadelphia and takes fourth. The Wings and Knighthawks are out.

Rush finish last in the west

If the Rush lose out (including one to Vancouver) and the Warriors win two of their other three games, the Rush are last. Let me say that again: at the end of March, it’s still possible for the Saskatchewan Rush to finish last in their division. I think the Rush clinched a playoff berth in February last year.

Warriors win the west

OK, this one is complicated. Vancouver wins out. Rush lose to Philly and twice to Colorado but beat San Diego and Calgary. San Diego loses out. Calgary beats San Diego and Philly but loses to Georgia and Saskatchewan. Colorado loses to Vancouver, San Diego, and Rochester but beat Saskatchewan twice. In that case, the Warriors win the west at 9-9, while the other four teams are all 8-10. That completes the proposed scenario but we still need to find out what happens, so we need to break the four-way tie.

The first tiebreaker is each team’s record against the other teams involved in the tiebreaker, but that doesn’t help here. Colorado and Saskatchewan would be 5-4 while San Diego and Calgary would be 4-5. The second tiebreaker is each team’s record within the division, in which case Saskatchewan wins at 9-3. Thus the Rush finish second, and we go to a three-way tiebreaker.

Again, the first is not helpful as each team is 3-3 against the other two. Back to the division record where the Seals are 8-4 and so they come third. The final tiebreaker is won by Colorado with a 2-1 record over the Roughnecks. Colorado finishes fourth and Calgary is out.

Seals finish first in the league

If San Diego wins out, that would put them at 14-4 and give them a win over Buffalo, which means the best Buffalo could do is also 14-4. With that win, San Diego would own the tiebreaker, so all San Diego has to do to finish first overall is to win out. No other conditions need to be met.

Four way tie for first in the west

San Diego loses out except they beat Georgia. The Rush beat Vancouver, San Diego, and Calgary but lose to Colorado twice and Philadelphia. Calgary beats San Diego and Philly and loses to Georgia and Saskatchewan. Colorado beats Saskatchewan twice and San Diego but loses to Rochester. Then all four are 9-9 while the Warriors are at best 7-11. Interestingly, the tiebreaker scenario listed above (under “Warriors win the west”) works out exactly the same way, so we have Rush, Seals, Mammoth, Roughnecks, and Warriors.

 

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Top ten surprises of the NLL 2019 season

Surprising things happen every year in every sport. This is partially why we love sports, isn’t it? If all of your predictions were correct every year, it’d get pretty boring pretty quick. Here are my top ten surprises from the 2019 season so far. At least these were surprises to me, you will probably have different opinions. Feel free to leave a comment if I missed any.

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2018-19 NLL Preview: West division

Every year, I go through the teams and give my analysis for each one. I also pick a player who I think will have a great year, and give a prediction on where I think the team will end up. And every year, I write a haiku for each team. Why? Just because. Here’s the West, and we’ll do the East tomorrow.

RoughnecksCalgary Roughnecks

Curtis Dickson and Wes Berg haven’t signed yet but it looks like the Roughnecks are preparing for the possibility of playing without one or both of them, at least for a while. They traded for Jesse King and Dan Taylor and signed Rhys Duch the second the Warriors released him. If Dickson and Berg both return, they could have an embarrassment of riches with all of those guys plus Dane Dobbie up front. Tyler Richards is backing up Christian Del Bianco and while Richards was an excellent goalie in his prime, he didn’t play at all last year and had a GAA of about 13½ the year before. Of course, if Del Bianco has his way, Richards will play about 17 minutes this year anyway.

Look out for

Rhys Duch apparently had some injury trouble last season which is why it was a down year for him. Assuming he’s healthy (and five goals in last weekend’s scrimmage implies that he is), he’s going to be out to show the Warriors that releasing him was a bad move. I don’t see him hitting 100 points again but 80 isn’t out of the question.

Prediction

Second in the west.

Haiku

No Dickson or Berg?
Maybe but Rhys Duch will help
King and Taylor too


MammothColorado Mammoth

Very few changes for the Mammoth, but they didn’t really need big changes. They have a solid offense with a good mix of young players and vets. Their strong defense lost Bryce Sweeting and Cam Holding (who didn’t play last year anyway) but they’re getting Dan Coates back and adding John Lintz. They also have one of the best goalies in the league, and three coaches who were excellent NLL players. Williams and McBride have no NLL coaching experience but have coached at various other levels, and there’s no reason to think they won’t excel at this level as well.

Look out for

Tim Edwards dominated the face-off dot in the Mammoth’s scrimmage against the Rock. I don’t think he’ll replace Joey Cupido as the top transition guy on the team but with Jay Thorimbert out of the league (at least for now), Edwards could be the top face-off guy in the NLL.

Prediction

Third in the west.

Haiku

Captain Coates returns
Willy and McBride help coach
Benny leads the O


SealsLogoSan Diego Seals

The Seals are a first-year expansion team so they’re gonna suck, right? Maybe not. There are some big-name players here. Dawson and Merrill may be past their prime (though Merrill’s only a year removed from his most recent Transition Player of the Year award) but not far enough past that they can’t be productive, and having all the young players learning from these two is invaluable. It’s funny that when they acquired 31-year-old Kyle Buchanan, I thought he‘d be the veteran leader on the team. I had a comment here about Billings and Walters not having played much in the last two years but they can still be productive. Then the rosters were released. Walters was cut and Billings is on the “inactive roster” so, um, never mind.

Add in guys like Holding, Evans, Clelland, Reinholdt, MacIntosh, Jackson, Scigliano, and Sorichetti and you have young guys with experience, and scoring phenom Austin Staats will be amazing. As I said in my IL Indoor comment: If everything works out, the Seals could be very good but even if it doesn’t, I don’t think they’ll be that bad.

Look out for

Kyle Buchanan has bounced between 50 and 70 points per season for the last five years but I think he’ll make the jump to the next level. Not sure I see 100+ points for him but 80+ or even 90 is definitely possible.

Prediction

Fourth in the west

Haiku

Lacrosse in the sun
Brodie and Dan are leaders
Seals are surfacing


RushSaskatchewan Rush

Losing guys like Ryan Dilks and Jeff Cornwall would be devastating to some defenses, but not the Rush. They have enough great D guys that they will be able to weather the storm but just in case, they brought in Travis Cornwall. They also lost Dan Dawson to free agency and Adrian Sorichetti to the expansion draft, so this is likely the biggest single-season roster “overhaul” that we’ve seen in Saskatchewan in several years. Will the changes be enough to drop them from their standard spot of favourite in the west? Nope.

Similar to Dickson and Berg in Calgary, I’m assuming they re-sign their holdouts Church, Messenger, and Bilic.

Look out for

Travis Cornwall will be given more playing time than he got in Vancouver last year, and I think he will make the most of it.

Prediction

First in the west

Haiku

Minimal changes
No Dilks but different Cornwall
Rush are still the faves


PrintVancouver Warriors

I hate to put Vancouver at the bottom again. In previous off-seasons, I thought they should have been making big changes to their lineup but they didn’t. It seemed that they made a few changes here and there in the hopes that things would magically work this time. This season, they changed everything – the announced roster has only eight guys (out of 21) who were on the roster at the end of last season (though that doesn’t include Salt and McCready, who were on the IR). They acquired a solid #1 goalie and they’ve made significant changes to their lineup, knowing the lineup that got them to 2-16 last year wasn’t good enough, and that’s good. But they lost their top two scorers (Duch and Small) and Pat Saunders and Casey Jackson and replaced them all with Mitch Jones. Jones is a great player, but he can’t replace all four of them. They lost Chris O’Dougherty, Travis Cornwall, Cliff Smith and Andrew Suitor and replaced them with rookies. Building for the future is great and sometimes necessary. It’s short term pain for long term gain, but I think this season might be painful.

Look out for

I don’t know much about them but I’m going to go with the Porter brothers. I did see them play in the Mann Cup in Six Nations a couple of years ago and was impressed with their effort and grit. Maybe there’s a reason that nobody’s given them a chance in the NLL up to now, but now that they have that chance, I think they’ll play their hearts out to make sure people know they deserve to be there.

Prediction

Fifth in the west.

Haiku

Changes in BC
Stealth are now the Warriors
Roster is all new

2019 NLL Predictions

Here are my predictions for the final regular season standings as well as the major annual awards. The “Dark Horse” predictions are my “not as likely but could happen” picks.

Final Standings

East

  1. Buffalo Bandits
  2. Georgia Swarm
  3. Toronto Rock
  4. New England Black Wolves
  5. Rochester Knighthawks
  6. Philadelphia Wings

West

  1. Saskatchewan Rush
  2. Calgary Roughnecks
  3. Colorado Mammoth
  4. San Diego Seals
  5. Vancouver Warriors

Individual Awards

MVP

Winner: Tom Schreiber
Short list: Shawn Evans, Mark Matthews
Dark horse: Ryan Benesch

Tom Schreiber

Goaltender of the Year

Winner: Dillon Ward
Short list: Christian Del Bianco, Evan Kirk
Dark horse: Frank Scigliano

Defensive Player of the Year

Winner: Graeme Hossack
Short list: Robert Hope, Kyle Rubisch
Dark horse: Brett Mydske

Transition Player of the Year

Winner: Challen Rogers
Short list: Zach Currier, Joey Cupido
Dark horse: Jordan MacIntosh

Rookie of the Year

Winner: Austin Staats
Short list:
Dark horse:

Full disclosure: I don’t follow MSL or WLA in enough detail to know any of them. In previous years I’d seen a few players here and there but not this year. I have seen Staats play in Six Nations and was impressed so I have some basis on which to list him, but anything else I put here is pure guesswork.

Les Bartley Award

Winner: Pat Coyle
Short list: Glenn Clark, Derek Keenan
Dark horse: Matt Sawyer

GM of the Year

Winner: Steve Dietrich
Short list: Derek Keenan, Mike Board
Dark horse: Patrick Merrill

2018-19 NLL: Who’s in, who’s out

Here it is: a complete summary of all the roster changes for each team, all in one place.

Note that these are the changes as of the final roster from last season, so a player might be listed as “In” even if he played for that team during 2018. And a player who’s injured but still part of that team will be listed as “out”. Not all teams have announced who’s on their IR, PUP, or holdout lists and only the Seals seem to have an “inactive roster”.

 

BanditsBuffalo Bandits

In: Matthew Bennett, Chase Fraser, Matt Gilray, Rich Kilgour (head coach), Ian MacKay, Ethan O’Connor, Corey Small, Matt Spanger, Bryce Sweeting, John Tavares (head coach), Matt Vinc
Out: Reid Acton, Alex Buque, Troy Cordingley (coach), Ryan Fournier, Vaughn Harris, Mitch Jones, Rich Kilgour (assistant coach), Bill O’Brien, Zack Reid, Mark Steenhuis, John Tavares (assistant coach)
IR: Jon Harnett, Mark Steenhuis
PUP:
Holdout:
Practice Roster: Dallas Bridle, Zach Herreweyers, Devlin Shanahan


SwarmGeorgia Swarm

In: Brendan Bomberry, Holden Cattoni, Matt Dunn, Joel Tinney, Adam Wiedemann
Out: Jordan Hall, Warren Hill, Brayden Hill, Jesse King, Kiel Matisz, Ethan O’Connor, Joel White
IR:
PUP:
Holdout:
Practice Roster: Tyler Ferreira, LeRoy Halftown, Steven Orleman, Craig Wende


BlackWolvesNew England Black Wolves

In: Kevin Buchanan, Alex Buque, Tyler Digby, Greg Downing, Dereck Downs, Ryan Fournier, Darryl Gibson (offensive coach), JP Kealey, Jackson Nichimura, Seth Oakes, Andrew Suitor
Out: Aaron Bold, Kyle Buchanan, Mark Cockerton, Kevin Crowley, Dylan Evans, Anthony Joaquim, Tracey Kelusky (offensive coach), Johnny Powless, Derek Suddons, Jay Thorimbert
IR:
PUP:
Holdout:
Practice Roster: Tal Bruno, Dave Emala, Ethan Woods


WingsPhiladelphia Wings

In: Everybody
Out: Nobody
IR: Blaze Riorden
PUP:
Holdout:
Practice Roster: Chris Collins, Isaiah Davis-Allen, Justin Guterding


KnighthawksRochester Knighthawks

In: James Barclay, Dylan Riley, Darryl Robertson, Pat Saunders, Luke Van Schepen, Warren Hill
Out: Frank Brown, Josh Currier, Eric Fannell, Billy Dee Smith, Sid Smith, Matt Vinc
IR: Sid Smith
PUP: Eric Fannell
Holdout:
Practice Roster: Cam Milligan, Leland Powless, Brandon Robinson


RockToronto Rock

In: Sheldon Burns, Creighton Reid, Phil Caputo, Dan Craig, Riley Hutchcraft, Adam Jay, Johnny Powless, Brandon Slade
Out: Drew Belgrave, Sandy Chapman, Brett Hickey, Jordan Magnuson, Brodie Merrill, Brandon Miller, Reid Reinholdt, Dan Taylor
IR: Jordan Magnuson
PUP: Reid Reinholdt, Scott Dominey
Holdout:
Practice Roster: Mitch Gustavsen, AJ Kluck, Brad Lyons
Protected: Paul Rabil


RoughnecksCalgary Roughnecks

In: Chris Boushy, Reece Callies, Rhys Duch, Jesse King, Tyler Richards, Eli Salama, Shane Simpson, Dan Taylor
Out: Wes Berg, Holden Cattoni, Curtis Dickson, Tyler Digby, Garrett McIntosh, Curtis Manning, Creighton Reid, Frank Scigliano
IR: Curtis Manning
PUP: Ryan Martel
Holdout:
Practice Roster: Carter Dickson


MammothColorado Mammoth

In: Brent Adams, Dan Coates, Pat Coyle (interim GM), Julian Garritano, John Lintz, Andrew McBride (assistant coach), Shawn Williams (assistant coach)
Out: Dan Carey (GM), Greg Downing, Chris Gill (assistant coach), Zack Greer, Dan Stroup (assistant coach), Bryce Sweeting
IR:
PUP:
Holdout:
Practice Roster: Rowan Kelly, Kyle Killen, Steven Lee, Jeff Wittig


SealsSan Diego Seals

In: Everybody
Out: Nobody
IR:
PUP:
Holdout:
Practice Roster: Jules Heningburg, Nick Ossello, Mikie Schlosser
Inactive Roster: Garrett Billings, Zach Bryant, Austin Divitcos, Connor Fields, Marcus Holman, Quinn MacKay, Brandon Ranford


RushSaskatchewan Rush

In: Travis Cornwall, Nick Finlay, Tyler Gaulton, Jordi Jones-Smith, Mason Pynn, Ryan McLean, Connor Robinson, Adam Shute, Jeremy Tallevi (assistant coach)
Out: Nic Bilic, Tyler Carlson, Robert Church, Jeff Cornwall, Dan Dawson, Ryan Dilks, Mike Messenger, Jimmy Quinlan (assistant coach), Adrian Sorichetti
IR:
PUP:
Holdout:
Practice Roster: Zach Gould


WarriorsVancouver Warriors

In: Keegan Bal, Owen Barker, Aaron Bold, Jean-Luc Chetner, Tyler Codron, Chris Gill (coach), Mitch Jones, Dan Lomas, Jordan McBride, Joel McCready, Cole Porter, Zack Porter, Dan Richardson (GM), Justin Salt, Jarrett Toll
Out: Jamie Batley (coach), Tye Belanger, Casey Jackson, Brandon Clelland, Travis Cornwall, Rhys Duch, Brandon Goodwin, Doug Locker (GM), Seth Oakes, Chris O’Dougherty, Pat Saunders, Corey Small, Andrew Suitor, Cody Teichroeb
IR: Brandon Goodwin, Brody Eastwood, Andrew Gallant
PUP: Chris O’Dougherty
Holdout:
Practice Roster: Travis Burton, Dallas Wade, Nate Wade

The 2019 NLL Schedule: Byes, doubles, and runnin’ back to Saskatoon

The 2019 NLL schedule was released this past week. Once fans see their team’s schedule, the first thing fans say about it is how “difficult” it is. Usually that involves what teams they’re playing but today I’m going to look at it a little differently.

Each team plays 18 games and the season is spread over 21 weeks, so each team has at least three weeks with no games (called a “bye” week). Each bye week you get beyond three means you have to make up that missed game by playing two games in a weekend (which I’m calling a “double”). If you’re lucky, one will be Friday night at home and the other will be Saturday night or Sunday afternoon in a city not far away, giving you lots of time for travel and potential delays – remember the NLL plays during the winter. If you’re not lucky… well, we’ll get to that.

Let’s look at how many bye weeks each team has as well as how many double weekends they have (and where those games are).

San Diego's Kyle BuchananBuffalo: Five bye weeks, but two of them are the last four weeks. They have two double weekends: first Rochester and New England in week 9 and then Philadelphia and Buffalo in week 15. Last year, they also had five byes and two doubles.

Calgary: Four byes, one double weekend: San Diego and Colorado in week 8. Last year the Roughnecks had three byes and no double weekends at all.

Colorado: Four byes but three of them come in the first six weeks including weeks five and six. The Mammoth play twice in week 17, in Vancouver and at home. Last year, they had five byes and two double weekends.

Georgia: Five bye weekends, all spread out. The Swarm have two double weekends: In week 8 they play in Toronto and then New England, then week 9 is a bye, then in week 10 they play at home on Friday and in Rochester on Saturday. Last year the Swarm had six byes and three double weekends. All three of their doubles last year followed a bye.

New England: Four byes and similar to the Mammoth, they have three in the first six weeks. Only one double weekend: Philly and New England in week 12. Last year, the Black Wolves had four byes and one double weekend.

Philadelphia: Five byes including two back-to-back. They play one game in the first four weeks of the season. They have two doubles: Philly and New England in week 12 (coincidentally, the same as the Black Wolves!) and Saskatchewan and Vancouver in week 20.

Rochester: Five byes and similar to the Wings, they play only once in the first four weeks. Also similar to the Wings, they have two double weekends: Philadelphia and Rochester in week 10 and Rochester and Toronto in week 16. Last year was roughly the same: five byes and two doubles.

San Diego: Five byes including one back-to-back – between January 19 and March 2, the Seals only play twice. They have two doubles: San Diego and Vancouver in week 8 and Georgia and New England in week 19.

Saskatchewan: Four byes including weeks 3 and 4. One double weekend but it’s a doozy: San Diego on Friday and back at home in Saskatchewan on Saturday of week 20. After a brief perusal on Expedia, I found that you can get from San Diego to Saskatchewan in about 7½ hours if you really push it (about 45 minute stopover in Minneapolis) or over 14 hours if you don’t mind a 7+ hour stopover. Either way, that’s going to be a brutal travel day for the Seals and Rush. Five byes and two doubles last year for the Rush.

Toronto: Five byes including weeks 3 and 4 as well as the final weekend of the season. The Rock play two doubles late in the season: Georgia and Buffalo in week 17 and Toronto and Rochester in week 19. Last year, the Rock had three byes and no double weekends.

Vancouver: Four byes and one double weekend: Vancouver and Colorado. Last year the Stealth had four byes and one double.


For my money, the most difficult schedule would be one where you have byes near the end of the season. If you are in the playoff hunt (i.e. every team in the East last season), you want to be playing during those last weeks to control your own fate, not watching others play hoping for the right result. In the last five weeks of the season, the Buffalo Bandits play the Rock twice, the Black Wolves once, and have two byes. Playing teams from their own division is helpful for the Bandits if they’re fighting for a playoff spot but two weeks off is not. On the upside, byes can help players recover from injuries without missing games. If Dhane Smith has a sore knee, a week off before a game with playoff implications could be a godsend.

There are a number of teams that have multiple byes near the beginning of the season but only the Bandits have more than one in the last six weeks or so. In terms of the criteria I’m going by here, nobody has a really terrible schedule. The Bandits byes near the end of the season make them a strong candidate but I’m going to say that the San Diego Seals have the most difficult schedule. They have one game in the first three weeks and then a span of five weeks in the middle with only two games. The game before those five weeks, the game after, and one of the two games in the middle are against the same team – Vancouver. However this schedule challenge is offset by the fact that they get to play half their games in southern California.

I’ll let you, the reader, insert your own joke here: Maybe we should say that [insert team name] has the worst schedule because they have to play half of their games in [insert city you don’t like]. Ha ha!

The league lengthened the season last year in order to try and cut down on the double weekends. The teams that used to be hit the most by long travel days were the Black Wolves and Rush. From most major airports in North America, you can fly directly to Denver or Calgary or Toronto but not Saskatoon, so most flights would have included a stopover. Some of those stopovers can be long, but really, who doesn’t love sitting in an airport for five hours? To get to Mohegan Sun, you need to fly to Hartford CT (also requiring stopovers from many airports, particularly in the west) and then take a several hour bus ride.

Update: Taking public transportation from Hartford airport to Mohegan Sun would be several hours. I would assume teams would charter a bus, in which case travel time is not much more than an hour. Thanks to Thomas for the correction.

In 2019, both of these teams only have one double weekend, so mission accomplished, right? For the Black Wolves, they’re coming from Philadelphia on their double, which is probably the closest NLL city. But as I mentioned above, the Rush have to get from San Diego to Saskatoon in a day. Last year, the Rush had two doubles, playing at home on the back half of each. While one was coming from Vancouver, which is likely a direct flight, the other was coming from Colorado which is almost as bad as San Diego. Those Colorado/Saskatoon travel days were part of the reason for the schedule change in the first place, and yet the Rush still have to deal with one.

It’s not like the people who make the NLL schedule haven’t thought about this, and so it’s likely that as crappy as that weekend will be, it was the best option available.

2018 Expansion Draft results: The expected and the unexpected

The 2018 NLL expansion draft was held on Monday. This was the first expansion draft in ten years so it was kind of new for many fans, but get used to it. This was also the first of at least three over the next few years as the league continues to expand. There were lots of predictions about what would happen in this draft; off the top of my head, I can think of at least three full mock drafts that were done, and there were probably more.

I made my own predictions back in May and got 6 right out of 18 picks, but in my defense I made my choices before the protected lists were announced by the teams. If I’d redone my predictions afterwards, I wouldn’t have predicted Curtis Knight or Eric Fannell to be chosen since they were protected, and I would have predicted Brett Hickey, Josh Currier, and Adrian Sorichetti since they weren’t.

Here’s the list of players chosen (and the team they were chosen from):

Round

Philadelphia

San Diego

1 Brett Hickey – TOR Turner Evans – TOR
2 Kiel Matisz – GEO Brett Mydske – SSK
3 Jordan Hall – GEO Adrian Sorichetti – SSK
4 Josh Currier – ROC Cam Holding – COL
5 Frank Brown – ROC Bryce Sweeting – COL
6 Anthony Joaquim – NE Frank Scigliano – CAL
7 Matt Rambo – NE Garrett MacIntosh – CAL
8 Vaughn Harris – BUF Casey Jackson – VAN
9 Davide DiRuscio – BUF Brendan Ranford – VAN

Immediately following the draft, there were two trades announced, both involving the Bandits:

  • The Seals sent Bryce Sweeting to the Bandits for Ethan Schott and a 2nd round pick in this fall’s entry draft
  • The Bandits sent Zac Reid to the Wings in exchange for the Wings selecting Vaughn Harris

That second one is interesting – I reasoned on Twitter that the Wings wanted Chase Fraser and the Bandits offered them Reid if they didn’t pick Fraser. This was confirmed.

The draft

Before the draft, NLL VP Brian Lemon announced the rules, most of which we already knew. He also said that each team would have two minutes to make their picks, and each could ask for one five-minute extension. But not one of the eighteen picks took as long as it took Lemon to read that rule. The draft was done so quickly that it was very unlikely that it was actually done live. It was probably done earlier in the day and the live stream was just the announcement of who was drafted, and they went back and forth to make it look like a live draft. But when you look at the players that were drafted and where they came from, there’s even more to it than that.

Brett Hickey (Photo: Scott Pierson)

All of the players available from western teams went to San Diego, and all players from eastern teams except Turner Evans went to Philly. Even more telling was the order in which they were announced: Toronto’s two players went first, one to Philly and one to San Diego. Then Philly’s next two picks were from Georgia and San Diego’s were from Saskatchewan. Then Philly took two from Rochester while the Seals took two from Colorado, then New England / Calgary, then Buffalo / Vancouver. Other than Toronto, each team’s two players were chosen in back-to-back picks by the same team, and the players from each division were chosen in the order their teams finished the 2018 regular season.

It seems likely that rather than an actual draft, the two GMs talked and together made up the lists of who gets who. The actual broadcast was them just announcing the results. Maybe they did the draft as intended, earlier in the day, then made some trades among themselves and decided to just skip announcing that part. If that’s the case, I’m OK with it. This is the NLL, so where a player lives very much matters with respect to where he wants to play. Some of the younger guys may not care and are happy to move around the country if they get traded. But there are lots of veteran players who have families and full-time jobs and are far more interested in playing half their games close to home. It makes total sense that the western players were picked by the western team and the eastern players were picked by the eastern team.

That said, if this is indeed how it was done, I’m a little annoyed that they dressed it up like a real draft. If the GMs got together and divided up the available players among them, following the two-players-per-team rule, why not just announce it that way?

The players taken

Given the quality of players available in this draft, it’s no surprise that both teams look pretty good to start with. The Wings have more firepower (Hickey, Matisz, Hall, Harris) while the Seals already have a strong defense (Mydske, Holding, Schott) and transition (MacIntosh, Sorichetti). If I had to pick a winner between the two teams, I’m not sure I could.

Both teams surprisingly picked players with zero NLL experience, Matt Rambo from New England heading to Philly (where he lives) and Brendan Ranford from Vancouver was picked by San Diego. Rambo is a field lacrosse star who was drafted by the Black Wolves last year but didn’t report. I have no idea if he even has any interest in the NLL; maybe he and Paul Rabil watch NLL games online together, saying “I could totally play there if I wanted to.” Ranford is a top prospect from BC but also plays pro hockey, and there was talk that he may play hockey in Europe next season. Perhaps that isn’t the case, or perhaps Patrick Merrill just decided to take a gamble anyway.

Only one UFA was chosen: Brett Mydske from the Rush. Merrill said that Mydske was just too good an option to pass up, and that’s hard to argue. Hopefully (for the Seals), they can sign Mydske to a contract before August 1st, at which time he’s free to sign with whoever he wants. They could also give him the franchise tag, which would prevent him from signing anywhere else but would also guarantee him 10% above the NLL’s maximum salary. Not a bad decision for Mydske to have: play in sunny San Diego and make max bucks, or choose which city you want to play in.

Davide DiRuscio (Photo: Bill Wippert)Philadelphia made a bit of a surprising pick for their goaltender: Davide DiRuscio, who’s been the Bandits backup goalie for a few years though he was injured all of last year. It was widely assumed that the two goalies picked in the draft were likely to be Frank Scigliano and one of Zach Higgins or Alex Buque, but we all picked the wrong Bandits goalie. In previous years DiRuscio has shown signs that he could someday be a starting goalie in the NLL, but has been inconsistent. He’s a big guy and only 26 and while it seems that forwards and defenders tend to peak around 27-28 years old, it can take goalies (those not named Christian, anyway) a couple of extra years to hit their stride. He may not be the next Dallas Eliuk next season but as an expansion team, the Wings are likely to be willing to wait a year or two.

The players lost

Each team lost two players from their roster, but some teams lost fewer than others. As mentioned, two players had never played an NLL game so from that point of view, New England and Vancouver got away a little easier than the other teams. The other guy Vancouver lost, Casey Jackson, has only played four games in the NLL so while he has a big upside for the future, the Vancouver team as it was yesterday is almost unchanged. Buffalo left three goalies unprotected and lost the one that’s recovering from injury. This may or may not be good news for the Bandits, as their goaltender situation was a little dicey last season and that hasn’t changed. They also lost defenders Ethan Schott and Zac Reid but gained another defender Bryce Sweeting. Colorado lost Sweeting and Holding but Holding didn’t play last season anyway, and they’ll be getting Dan Coates back next year, so they’re probably OK.

The teams that lost the most, in my opinion, are the Georgia Swarm and the Rochester Knighthawks. It’s not as though losing Matisz and Hall leaves the Swarm with no strong forwards, but they will be two tough players to replace. Both are versatile and can play forward or transition roles. As I mentioned in my expansion draft predictions article, Hall would be a good candidate for captain of the Wings, but Matisz has been around for a while too and it wouldn’t surprise me to see an A on his chest next season.

The Knighthawks lost Josh Currier, which was a certainty once it was discovered that he was unprotected, and Frank Brown, a defender (though listed as a forward in the Wings draft results article) with a ton of potential. Brown also played half of last year with the Swarm, so he has some familiarity with Matisz and Hall.

Now that the draft is over, I believe the rosters are now “unfrozen”, so teams are free to begin making trades once again. On August 1st, teams will be able to start signing free agents as well, and of course Philadelphia and San Diego will be busy there. They do have players now, but they each have less than half a team. It’s already been one of the most active off-seasons the NLL has seen in years and it ain’t over yet.