That’s more like it.
When the Rock hosted the Bandits on Saturday night, nobody knew what to expect. Would we see a repeat of each team’s first game of the season when Toronto’s offense didn’t show up and Buffalo played great? Would Buque rebound from his tough outing against the Knighthawks last week? Would the Rock transition show the improvements that they hoped for with the additions of Challen Rogers and Sheldon Burns? The answers were no, no, and yes.
Here are my predictions for the final regular season standings as well as the major annual awards. The “Dark Horse” predictions are my “not as likely but could happen” picks.
East
West
Winner: Lyle Thompson
Short list: Mark Matthews, Curtis Dickson
Dark horse: Rob Hellyer
Winner: Nick Rose
Short list: Dillon Ward
Dark horse: Tye Belanger
Defensive Player of the YearWinner: Graeme Hossack
Short list: Kyle Rubisch, Steve Priolo
Dark horse: Mitch de Snoo
Winner: Justin Salt
Short list: Latrell Harris, Mike Messenger
Dark horse: Jeff Cornwall
Winner: Josh Byrne
Short list: Zach Currier, Austin Shanks
Dark horse: Drew Belgrave
This one is always a crapshoot. The Bartley award is frequently decided by the question “which team played better than we expected them to”, which by definition is impossible to predict. If a team is stacked and plays well, then the coach isn’t always considered which is unfair. This is why Derek Keenan only has three of these awards and not six or seven.
Winner: Matt Sawyer
Short list: Derek Keenan, Jamie Batley
Dark horse: Pat Coyle
This one is also tough because trades and signings that happen during the regular season could change the landscape completely, and they’re impossible to predict as well.
Winner: Rich Lisk
Short list: Jamie Dawick, Doug Locker unless the Stealth tank
Dark horse: Curt Styres or Steve Dietrich if the Knighthawks or Bandits finish in the top two in the East
Just like yesterday’s East division preview, today we’ll cover the West: where I think they will end up in the standings, who might have a breakout year, and a haiku for each team.
Calgary RoughnecksHolden Cattoni. He didn’t really stand out last season with 26 points in 15 games, but had an excellent summer in the MSL. With Jeff Shattler now in Saskatchewan, Cattoni will likely get more floor time and can use his new-found confidence to help the Roughnecks.
Jeff Shattler and Scott Carnegie are gone, Mike Carnegie is injured, Bob Snider is on the practice roster, and Wes Berg has not yet signed a contract. In their place are third-overall draft pick Zach Currier, Vaughan Harris (who had a cup of coffee with the Necks last year), and two more rookies, Anthony Kalinich and Tyler Pace. A good crop of rookies to be sure, but those are some awfully big shoes to fill.
Fourth in the west.
Shattler on the Rush
Will be a shock to Necks fans
Will they sign Wes Berg?
Colorado MammothJacob Ruest. Ruest scored 18 goals and picked up 18 assists in 18 games last year. With Crawford gone, there will be more space on the Mammoth’s right side so along with Keogh and Noble, Ruest will be getting a lot more floor time.
Coates and Holding are gone for the year, Bryce Sweeting is also injured, though I don’t know how long he’s out, and Ilija Gajic was not re-signed. Those are some pretty big holes to fill on defense. But the offense didn’t want the defensive guys to have all the fun. Also missing are Zack Greer and Brent Adams. The addition of Ryan Benesch basically fills the hole left by Callum Crawford, though on the opposite side of the floor. If even half of those missing guys are back by mid-season, the Mammoth could do OK but if they’re all gone long-term, Dan Carey may be a busy guy in the early part of the season. He did sign Scott Carnegie to the Mammoth practice roster, so I’d expect to see him on the active roster before long.
Third in the west
Injuries on D
Decimating the Mammoth
But Benny’s in town
Saskatchewan RushRyan Keenan. Keenan had a pretty good rookie season last year, but wasn’t the impact player many thought he would be; 42 points in 16 games isn’t what one might expect from the first overall draft pick. This is a bit reminiscent of Lyle Thompson the year before, but Thompson’s sophomore season was spectacular. Not saying Keenan will win the MVP or bump Mark Matthews from his top spot on the Rush offense, but seeing Keenan hitting the 70-80 point plateau this year wouldn’t surprise me.
Personally, I don’t think Evan Kirk is a huge upgrade over Aaron Bold, other than being younger. I don’t think he’s any worse than Bold, and I don’t think this was a terrible deal for the Rush, just not a significant improvement. But Derek Keenan is a big Kirk fan, and I admit that Keenan is probably a better judge of lacrosse talent than I am. Adam Jones, who never really seemed to fit in as part of the Rush offense, is out and Jeff Shatter is in. I’d say at worst that’s a wash and more likely, that’s a net gain for the Rush. So they probably got better at goaltender and offense, and their defense is still the best in the league despite losing John Lafontaine. The Rush are still the team to beat in the West.
First in the west
Boldy out, Kirk in
Good goaltender and offense
Still the best defense
Vancouver StealthTony Malcom. After 38 points in his rookie year, Malcom was on pace for 62 last year but injuries caused him to miss half the season. The New West kid will now be playing home games at home and assuming he’s back to full health, playing with guys like Small, Duch, and Schuss can’t help but bump both his confidence and his numbers.
A fair bit of turnover in Vancouver. They lost Lintz, Hodgson, Harnett, Garrison, Wagner, and Toll on the back end and Conway and Durston up front, and Tyler Richards was released. They did gain Tony (the former Anthony) Malcom, they seem excited about draft pick Ryan Fournier, and then Andrew Suitor just fell into their lap a few days ago. The Stealth made big strides last season, and I can see them capitalizing on that this year.
Second in the west.
Hodgy retired
Matt Beers becomes the captain
Suitor joins in too
NLL Chatter 