Week 12 picks

I was 3-1 last week, only missing the Calgary-Colorado game. Some tough ones this week, and I picked a few based solely on my gut and not on anything I can explain.

Record: 32-14 (.696)

Game
Comments
Pick
EDM @ CAL If anybody can beat the Rush, it’s Calgary. But I have to play the odds and go with Edmonton. Rush43
ROC @ TOR Once again, I find it hard to pick against Matt Vinc, even when it’s the Rock facing him. Despite going 0-2 the other weekend, the Rock didn’t play all that bad other than the first quarter of the Calgary game. I imagine the week off will help get everyone healthy again, but I’m still going with the Hawks. Knighthawks533
COL @ BUF Colorado played really well against the Roughnecks last weekend, but I still think the Bandits are the best team in the East, and best in the league outside of Edmonton. Bandits4
ROC @ PHI Rochester had a little bit of trouble with the Wings last weekend, other than the fourth quarter when they pulled away. Don’t see it going any differently this week. Knighthawks533
TOR @ MIN Minnesota’s confidence is rising, even if they haven’t beaten anyone but the Wings. They played strong against the Bandits last week, but I’m still picking the Rock in this one. Rock

Week 11 picks

The good news: 3-0 last week! The bad news: The Rock 0-2 weekend that I predicted came true. Was kinda hoping I’d be wrong on one of those.

All three members of the Addicted to Lacrosse team made the same picks for this weekend.

Record: 29-13 (.690)

Game
Comments
Pick
MIN @ BUF Buffalo hasn’t played in a couple of weeks, but their confidence is still running high, though Minnesota’s is probably not bad either after beating the Wings and a close loss to Toronto. Still gotta go with the Bandits. Bandits
PHI @ ROC Philly’s lost four in a row, and they’re facing Matt Vinc. I don’t see the upset here. Knighthawks53
CAL @ COL Calgary’s offense was clicking big-time last weekend, and against the Colorado defense (and three rookie coaches), they might just have another field day. Roughnecks5
VAN @ EDM As I said on the A2L show: Vancouver minus Sorensen against the Rush? No-brainer. (Of course I hate saying “no-brainer” with NLL picks since teams like to prove me wrong.) Rush4

Week 10 picks

My streak of no more than one incorrect pick per week ends at 4, and my streak of .500 or better weeks ends at 7. I was 1-2 last week as Calgary and Minnesota pulled off the comeback victories. If the games ended at halftime, I’d have been 3-3.

Record: 26-13 (.667)

Game
Comments
Pick
TOR @ EDM I keep asking this question, but can anybody beat the Rush? Well sure, in this league anyone could. I doubt the Rush will finish the season 18-0, so somebody’s going to beat them. Could it be Toronto? Maybe, but I’m not betting on it. Looking forward to watching this game on TV though. Rush
TOR @ CAL If there’s one thing I hate doing, it’s picking against my favourite team. If there’s one thing I hate doing more than that, it’s picking my team to lose twice in one weekend. But if I’m going to be non-homer-ific, I have to admit that Toronto’s inconsistent play recently is not likely to get them by a surging Roughnecks team in Calgary. Roughnecks
ROC @ COL Calgary was able to come back against Matt Vinc and the Knighthawks but I don’t see Colorado pulling it off. They have the firepower up front, but they don’t have the defense and goaltending is still up in the air. Knighthawks5

Week 9 picks

Another 4-1 week! Third in a row, and fourth week in a row with only one incorrect pick. I should be bragging about my prediction prowess, but I’m too shocked given my sub-.500 records in the last 2 years.

Record: 25-11 (.694)

Game
Comments
Pick
MIN @ TOR The Rock had their asses handed to them last weekend, and they’ll also be looking for payback against the Swarm, who knocked them out of the playoffs last season. The Rock have been dominant at home except for last week, while the Swarm haven’t been dominant anywhere. Rock533
ROC @ CAL Rochester obviously has a strong defense and goaltending, but one of their criticisms this season has been their offense. Only one team (Minnesota) has scored fewer goals. But after scoring 17 last weekend, they got that monkey off their backs. The Roughnecks have lots of offensive threats as well, but I think the Rochester defense has a better shot of shutting them down than the Calgary defense has with the Knighthawks. Knighthawks
MIN @ PHI I hate to predict an 0-2 weekend for a 1-6 team, but there it is. The Wings are the only team the Swarm have beaten so far this season and they’re also on a three-game losing streak. But at this point I have more confidence that the Wings can turn it around than the Swarm. Wings

Week 8 picks

OK, this is really getting weird. Another 4-1 week, and I’ve now got more than twice as many correct picks as incorrect ones. I’m tied with Brian Shanahan and two games ahead of anyone else on the IL Indoor team. I’m totally not used to this, and I’m assuming I’ve got some 0-fer weeks coming up. The really weird thing is that if I missed every pick in the next three weeks, I’d still be at .500. But I’ll try not to let it go to my head.

Read on for this week’s winners. Guaranteed, or your money back. Unfortunately, I didn’t get this article out early enough to put in my regular analysis, but I did give some when I gave my picks on this week’s Addicted to Lacrosse show.

Record: 21-10 (.677)

Game
Comments
Pick
VAN @ COL Rhys Duch and Kyle Sorensen are back, which will give the Stealth a boost. Will it be enough to get past Grant/Westervelt/Powell without Adam Jones? I must have thought so on Monday when I did my picks though I have to say I’m less than 100% sure of this now. But I’m not sure I actually want to change it either. Stealth
EDM @ MIN Can anyone beat Edmonton? Yes, at some point this season someone will. But at this point, it ain’t gonna be Minnesota. Rush43_thumb33
ROC @ TOR Probably a homer pick. Tyler mentioned a good point in the show – that it’s hard to pick Rose over Vinc. But the Rock have been scoring way more than the Knighthawks, so I’m going with the home team. Rock53
PHI @ BUF Philly has already beat the Bandits, but Buffalo is playing far better now. Bandits43_thumb33
VAN @ CAL Given how they’ve been playing, it’s hard to pick Vancouver to win once, let alone twice in the same weekend. Roughnecks5

Week 7 picks… and more!

Another good week – 4-1! I’ve only had one week under .500, and that was 1-2 in week 1. In four of the other five weeks, I’ve only gotten one wrong. WTF? This is certainly different from the last two years where I finished under .500.

This is a two-in-one article, since you get my picks and as an added FREE bonus, some thoughts on the Rock roster moves this week.

Record: 17-9 (.654)

Game
Comments
Pick
PHI @ TOR Toronto is undefeated at home, but the Wings are on a 2-game win streak and are 2-1 on the road. Should be a good game, and I’m predicting the Rock’s home winning streak to continue. Rock5
EDM @ PHI I think I said this last week. Until the Rush does something to convince me that they’re not the best team in the league, I’m probably just going to keep picking them. Rush43_thumb3
BUF @ ROC Similar to the Rush, the Bandits are playing great right now and I’ll probably keep picking them too, until they play Edmonton. Then I have no idea. Bandits43_thumb3
CAL @ MIN Calgary’s not having their greatest season ever, but it’s better than the Swarm’s so far. Logan Schuss is playing well but thus far isn’t the offensive star he was projected to be, and the production from Matisz and Jackson is way down. Roughnecks
COL @ VAN The Stealth are on a 4-game losing streak and confidence has to be pretty low – and they’ll be without Rhys Duch who’s serving a suspension. They’ve already beaten the Mammoth this season, but that was with Duch and the Mammoth were without Casey Powell. Mammoth4

I never managed to write an entire article on my thought about the Rock moves this week, acquiring Billy Hostrawser from the Stealth and releasing Stephen Hoar, so I’ll just put a couple of thoughts here. First off, I have no problem with acquiring Hostrawser for draft picks – unless they’re in the first round, draft picks are always a crapshoot anyway so giving them up for an actual warm body who can play now is fine. And he’s a young defender who can fight – just ask Mike Lum-Walker, his new teammate and sparring partner in last week’s Rock/Stealth game. He’s even scored a goal and has a few assists.

I am a little puzzled by Hoar’s release, though. In a number of interviews, both Terry Sanderson and John Lovell have mentioned that they are looking forward to the return of Patrick Merrill and Chris White (and Bill Greer, while he was out) because they bring some veteran leadership to the defense. They said that the young players (Lum-Walker, O’Connor, Dunn, England) are doing fine but more veterans on the back end would not only help the team but would help the kids to learn as well. And then they release Hoar, who is a veteran defender, and replace him with a guy with all of 15 games of NLL experience.

Hoar is also their only face-off guy who’s not injured. So I hope Patrick Merrill is back tonight, since 13 Rock face-offs this year have not been taken by Hoar, and they’ve only won 5 of them. Hostrawser has never taken one in the NLL, so no help there. That said, it’s not like Hoar is Geoff Snider either. He has a sub-.500 career faceoff percentage and was only at 35.7% this season. The Rock have never had a really strong face-off guy, since Merrill is under .500 over his career as well.

Week 5 picks

I went 4-3 last week, getting the Philly/Minnesota back-to-back backwards, and going with Vancouver over Calgary. Props to my Addicted to Lacrosse co-host Tyler for going 6-1. He also got the VAN/CAL game wrong, but after the show he found out that Kyle Sorensen wouldn’t play in Calgary and tweeted that Vancouver wouldn’t win in Calgary without him. This turned out to be correct, so we’ll give him 6.5 out of 7.

Only three games this week, but still some tough ones.

Record: 11-7 (.611)

Game
Comments
Pick
ROC @ BUF The Bandits are playing with a ton of confidence right now. The offense is clicking (even without John Tavares last weekend), and the defense is playing well in front of a revitalized Anthony Cosmo. I’ve said before that it’s hard for me to bet against Matt Vinc, but I guess it’s not impossible. Bandits
COL @ CAL Colorado beat the Stealth in week 2, but haven’t played well since. It’s hard to convince myself at this point that they can beat the Roughnecks. Drew Westervelt will miss this game because of a US field lacrosse team tryout or practice or something, so that won’t help the Mammoth at all. Roughnecks
EDM @ VAN With these two goalies and defenses, this could be the lowest scoring game of the year. Edmonton is unlikely to go 18-0, and Vancouver definitely has the talent to beat them, but not this time. Looking forward to the Rush/Knighthawks game next weekend. Rush

Week 4 picks

Holy crap. I went 5-1 last week, my best weekend for making picks EVER except for my 5-0 week back in March of 2012. Of course, the only one I got wrong was the one I most wanted to be right – the Toronto/Buffalo game.  A whopping seven games this weekend, so I have lots of opportunity to make a huge jump in the percentages, and lots of opportunity to drop back under .500.

Once again, I gave my picks on this week’s Addicted to Lacrosse show.

Record: 7-4 (.636)

Game
Comments
Pick
CAL @ EDM Edmonton looked really good last weekend, and they’re at home again. Rush4
COL @ VAN Iannucci playing against his old team makes this an interesting game, but I still have to go with the Stealth. I’m starting to feel the same about betting against Tyler Richards as I am about Matt Vinc. Stealth4
MIN @ PHI Philly lost their game against Buffalo last week but they have to feel confident about their 2nd half comeback. Minnesota has yet to prove that they can score without Ryan Benesch. Wings
TOR @ ROC I hate to pick against my team, but like I said, I also find it hard to pick against Matt Vinc. Knighthawks5
VAN @ CAL I have no explanation for this pick. This will be really good game and I can see either one taking it. Stealth4
BUF @ COL Buffalo looked really good in the second half of their game against the Rock. That plus their OT win in Philly will give them confidence. Bandits4
PHI @ MIN Minnesota’s home opener, and they’re playing against their former teammate, who they also saw the previous night. Swarm

Week 3 picks

The first of two busy weekend in the NLL – six games this weekend, seven next weekend. I announced all my picks on this week’s Addicted to Lacrosse show but in the unlikely event that you didn’t watch the show (you did, right? RIGHT?), here they are. This will be true going forward – we plan on making predictions on the show every week, and I’ll be posting mine here as well.

Record: 2-3 (.400)

Game
Comments
Pick
TOR @ BUF The Rock looked really good last weekend while Buffalo didn’t. The Rock are 14-6 all-time in Buffalo. That said, Troy Cordingley would love to prove to the Rock that firing him was a mistake, and so he’ll have his team ready to play. I’m going to this game – should be a good one. Rock5
COL @ CAL Calgary did not play like Calgary last week and so they will want to prove to their home fans that they are still a team to be reckoned with. Colorado will attempt to reckon with them. If Dillon Ward starts and plays like he’s done so far this year, this prediction could easily go south. (Get it? Colorado is south of Calgary) Roughnecks
PHI @ ROC Philly looked really good last weekend, but I find it hard to bet against Matt Vinc. Knighthawks
COL @ EDM Toughest game to call this week. Edmonton was 2-6 at home last year and 7-1 away, but I’m betting they can improve on that this year. Rush
MIN @ VAN The Swarm kept the Knighthawks to only 8 goals last week, but I don’t think they can be that strong defensively two weeks in a row. The Stealth are playing their first-ever home game in Vancouver (as a Vancouver team, anyway, they played the Championship game last year and a couple of pre-season games in Langley over the last couple of years) so they’ll want to put on a good show. Stealth
BUF @ PHI After losing their first two (assuming my prediction above holds), the Bandits will be angry and will do whatever they can to avoid starting 0-3. This anger and desperation could result in a debacle where they take a million penalties and lose by a ton, or Troy could pull them together and make them play better. There’s no evidence yet that he can do the latter (Darris certainly couldn’t over the last couple of years), but that’s what I’m going to go with. Bandits

Game review: Calgary 11 @ Toronto 16

The Toronto Rock and Calgary Roughnecks opened their seasons on Friday night in Toronto, and things couldn’t really have gone much better for the Rock. Captain Colin Doyle scored the first goal of the season four minutes in, and two minutes later, the Rock had a three goal lead. Not only did the Rock keep the lead for the rest of the game, but Calgary only got back within one once, and after the first quarter, the Rock’s lead would never drop below three. The Roughnecks had problems in all areas of the floor – goaltending, defense, taking bad penalties, and particularly the offense, which looked pretty sloppy. Shots were missing the net all night, and other times a Roughnecks player would try to sneak one by Rose through a screen rather than waiting for a  better shot opportunity.

That said, the Riggers did try to make a game of it in the 3rd and 4th, as Jeff Shattler scored four straight Calgary goals and then early in the fourth, Shawn Evans and Curtis Dickson (neither of whom had scored up to this point) each scored to bring the Roughnecks back to within 3 with 10 minutes to play – and of course 10 minutes to score 3 goals is tons of time. But Nick Rose and the Rock D only allowed one more the rest of the way, and the Rock offense never let up the pressure.

Garrett Billings scored one and assisted on nine to lead the game (and now the league) in scoring, and Stephen Leblanc had an excellent game with 5 goals and a couple of helpers. Jesse Gamble is already making me reconsider my Transition Player of the Year prediction (Geoff Snider), and I wondered during the game who would win in a race: Gamble or Steve Toll in his prime. On the Calgary side, Shawn Evans had a goal and seven assists, and Jeff Shattler scored four. I noticed rookies Karsen Leung and Garrett McIntosh a few times but I don’t even remember seeing Tor Reinholdt’s name. He’s on the scoresheet, so he obviously played, but I have no memory of him.

But man, those Roughnecks have some pests, don’t they? Evans, Dobbie, and Snider spent a grand total of 2 minutes in the penalty box, but they were being their usual irritating selves (though if I were an NLL GM, I’d take any one of them on my team in a heartbeat), and Greg (or possibly Jon) Harnett and Andrew McBride also got in on the action. There were no fights but a fair bit of pushing and shoving all night, which is somewhat typical between these teams. However Mike Carnegie was given a 5-minute major for illegal cross-checking which I didn’t think was warranted at all. It looked to me like a good hit – maybe high across the chest, but I didn’t think it was a head hit, and it certainly didn’t look like an intentional head hit.

Next weekend, the Rock travel to Buffalo to see old coach Troy Cordingley, while the Roughnecks host the Mammoth.

Other game notes:

  • Nice to see Ethan O’Connor get his first NLL goal in his first NLL game. Sure it was an empty-netter, but it still counts.
  • Mike Poulin was hot and cold. Mostly cold in the first half and better as the game went on, but he made a few damned impressive saves throughout the game. Nick Rose had a few OMG-worthy saves as well, but let in a couple of softies. Then again, when Jeff Shattler is standing 15 feet from you and winding up like he’s going to put a 100 mph shot through you, you’re getting ready to feel the pain. You’re not looking for a 40 mph change-up that bounces right at your feet.
  • Right at the end of the game, Damon Edwards was running out the last 5 or 10 seconds on the clock, when McBride started hitting him into the boards with some legal but very hard cross-checks – much harder than the situation warranted. When the hits continued after the final buzzer Edwards started shoving back, and a fight almost began. The refs broke it up before anything happened, and a minute later they were shaking hands in the lineup.
  • The Rock cheerleaders had new outfits including denim jackets, but it looked like they decided that each girl would go and buy their own, since none of them matched. Some were longer than others, some were light blue while others were dark, it was weird. Normally their outfits are very co-ordinated.
  • I like the Trainer’s Choice commercial they show on the Jumbotron during Rock games, showing players falling on various parts of their body. The best part is when they show a player falling through the crease. As soon as his elbow hits the ground, the video stops and the word “ANKLE” appears in big letters. This is a sports medicine company.
  • They didn’t show the car rental company commercial that everyone loves. (“A little more to your right, a little back to the left, just an inch more to your right. OK, there. Do it. <BANG>”) I can’t currently remember which car rental company it’s for, so from that point of view it’s a lousy commercial. Makes me laugh every time though.