Division semi-final picks

My overall record during the regular season was 31-41 (0.431). If I only get three of the seven playoff games right, I’m at .428, so I need to finish above .500 in the playoffs to beat my regular season record. Everyone wants to do better in the playoffs than they did in the regular season, right?

Despite what my picks for the first round look like, I did not just go with the higher ranked team. Well, I did, but I actually did think about each game.

Record: 0-0

Game

Comments

Pick

BUF @ TOR Of the three possible opponents for the Rock in the first round, this was my least favourite option as a Rock fan. I was hoping the Rock would face Rochester while the Wings disposed of the Bandits. Then the Rock could take out the Wings and head to the final again. It doesn’t matter how bad the Bandits were in the early (or even mid) part of this year – they played pretty well at the end, Cosmo seems to have found his stride, and the team is playing with confidence. This could be a really close game, going back and forth all night and finally solved by overtime, or it could be a blowout, one way or the other. None of those options would surprise me. Rock5
PHI @ ROC On March 23, the Wings were 7-4 and in first place in the East. Since then, they’re 0-5 and have scored 10 or fewer goals in 4 of those games. They’re outta time to turn things around – it’s now or never. The Knighthawks aren’t exactly flying into the playoffs either, having lost four of their last six. But one of those wins was against the Wings and the other was against the powerhouse Roughnecks, so things aren’t all bad. Knighthawks5
EDM @ CAL I like the Rush. Aaron Bold is my Goalie of the Year choice, Rubisch (my Defender of the Year choice) and Corbeil are two of the best defenders in the league, and Shawn Williams and Steve Toll are two of my all-time favourite players. Could they beat the Roughnecks? Could their defense and goaltending shut down the potent Calgary offense long enough for their forwards to put a few by Poulin? Sure, it could happen. But it won’t. Roughnecks
MIN @ COL I wanted to pick the Swarm, and I kind of hope I’m wrong. The Swarm have surprised and impressed me (and many others) this year, and I wouldn’t be shocked if they did pull off the upset, though I would be surprised. Sure, they beat the Mammoth last weekend, but Colorado was missing Gavin Prout and had nothing to play for in that game. Prout is back this weekend, and the Mammoth are not going to take this one lightly. Mammoth4

2012 NLL Award winners

The IL Indoor writing staff submitted their picks this week for the major annual NLL awards. Here are the names I submitted. I also made some predictions at the beginning of the year, so let’s see how I did on those.

Offensive player of the year – John Grant, Jr.

Grant set a new scoring record and did it while playing two fewer games than anyone else. He kept up an average of 8.3 points per game, and never scored less than six points in a game. He had two games all year without a hat-trick.

It’s amazing to me that John Tavares set the scoring record of 115 points in 14 games in 2001, and in ten 16-game seasons, nobody could beat it. Then in 2012 someone finally does beat it – while only playing 14 games.

Runners-up: Garrett Billings, Dan Dawson, John Tavares, Gavin Prout

Prediction: I didn’t make a prediction for offensive player.

Transition player of the year – Geoff Snider

Runners-up: Andrew Suitor, Brodie Merrill, Jordan MacIntosh, Travis Cornwall, Jesse Gamble

Prediction: Paul Rabil. Hahahahahahahaha

Defensive player of the year – Kyle Rubisch

Runners-up: Curtis Manning, Rory Smith, Kyle Sorensen, Sandy Chapman

Prediction: Kyle Rubisch. Yay, I got one right.

Goaltender of the year – Aaron Bold

I was really torn here. My first thought was Bold, but I had trouble giving Goaltender of the Year to a goalie on a 6-10 team so I switched to Mike Poulin. But then I remembered that Bob Watson won it for the Rock in 2008 when they were 7-9 and missed the playoffs. Poulin had a better team in front of him so he got more wins, but that doesn’t help us compare. But while watching games and highlights and looking over game reports over the course of the year, I remember thinking “wow” just a little more often with Bold than with anyone else. So I switched back.

Runners-up: Mike Poulin, Evan Kirk, Chris Levis

Prediction: Mike Thompson. Hey, he played in the All-Star game! But so did the now-unemployed Matt Roik.

Rookie of the year – Jordan MacIntosh

Before the season started, a number of people seemed to have already decided that this award should just be given to Kevin Crowley, and Crowley certainly impressed. But even once the season began, I never had Crowley pegged as the runaway winner of this award, because Adam Jones was always right there with him. They both slowed down a little in the second half, dropping to about 5 points per game. Still excellent debut seasons, to be sure. But MacIntosh quietly amassed 51 points, only 20 less than Crowley and 25 less than Jones, as a transition player. He also played defense and took the majority of the Swarm’s face-offs. Neither Crowley nor Jones were in my Offensive Player of the Year list, but MacIntosh was in my list for Transition, and Kirk was in my list for Goaltender of the Year, so he gets the second place vote.

Runners-up: Evan Kirk, Adam Jones, Kevin Crowley, Johnny Powless, Travis Cornwall

Prediction: Kevin Crowley. Again, not a terrible pick, and I couldn’t really argue with any of my top four.

Coach of the year – Bob Hamley

Hamley took a 5-11 team with a lot of roster changes and rookies and turned them into one of the best teams in the league – second place overall, a 6-game winning streak, and the highest goals/game and PP goals/game averages in the league.

Runners-up: Joe Sullivan (and Mike Lines, if a replaced coach can win such an award), Troy Cordingley, Dave Pym

Prediction: Darris Kilgour. Talk about your polar opposite. Not that his team’s terrible (at times) play was entirely his fault, but I was not impressed with the way he handled it, calling them out (by name in some cases) as publicly as he did. Still, the team did turn it around at the end of the year.

GM of the year – Steve Govett

See the Coach of the year entry – Govett made the roster changes that allowed Hamley to do what he did.

Runner-up: Joe Sullivan John Arlotta. (Update: Sullivan is listed as “Associate GM” on Minnesota’s web site, and nobody is listed as GM. Turns out John Arlotta is the guy who makes the decisions.)

Prediction: Derek Keenan. That was before the whole Iannucci thing happened, though I did think that even without Nooch, the Rush would have been better than they were.

MVP – Garrett Billings

Garrett Billings

With respect to John Grant’s remarkable season, Billings meant more to the Rock than Grant did to the Mammoth. Grant missed two games with an injury and while he was out, the Mammoth went 1-1. When Gavin Prout missed two games near the end of the season, Grant recorded 6 points in each game (obviously not bad, but his lowest tallies of the year) and the Mammoth lost both games. For the Rock, Blaine Manning missed most of the season, Colin Doyle and Josh Sanderson missed games as well, and Stephan Leblanc had a subpar season, but Billings stepped up and became the de facto leader. He outscored everyone else on his team by almost fifty points. The Mammoth had a very good season, but without Grant, they still had two other players (Jones and Prout) who were in the top ten in scoring, and would still have been pretty good. The Rock’s second place scorer (Leblanc) was seventeenth. They did have a pretty good season (can’t argue with first in the division) but without Billings, it would have been much worse.

Runners-up: John Grant, Dan Dawson, John Tavares

Prediction: Dan Dawson.

Confession

I kind of hate the fact that my MVP list is so similar to my offensive player list, because that implies that goals and offense are the most important things. Considering my interest in statistics, it may seem that I look only at the numbers when deciding on a player’s worth: “Obviously Mike Hominuck is way better than Kyle Rubisch because he has way more points!” This is definitely not the case, but I do have to admit that it’s more difficult to evaluate defensive players when you’re not watching them all the time – and sometimes, even when you are.

I saw every Rock home game live (plus one in Buffalo), and almost all the road ones on TV or the internet. Overall, did Cam Woods play better or worse than Glen Bryan this year? I honestly couldn’t tell you. I could write a huge post on why the numbers by themselves don’t give you anywhere near the whole story when it comes to determining how important a player is to his team, but oh look, Marty O’Neill has already done that.

Anyway, there were certainly some big goaltending and defensive performances this year, but with both Grant and Billings breaking offensive records, offense was the big story.

Week 17 picks

So this is it, the last week. I’m way under .500; best I can do is 32-40, but I could also end up 28-44. Yet another .500 week would put me at 30-42. Still, that’s not too much worse than some of the IL Indoor guys, and depending on this week’s games, it might even be better than some of them. But remember when we start the playoffs, we’re all tied at 0-0…

Record: 28-40 (.412)

Game

Comments

Pick

TOR @ EDM Toronto is playing for home floor advantage while Edmonton can’t change their playoff position. Nick Rose had a bad outing against the Mammoth but rebounded and played pretty well against the Stealth last weekend. Edmonton has the lowest-scoring offense in the league, so this might be another opportunity for Rose to bump his confidence going into the playoffs. That said, the Rush beat the Mammoth last weekend so maybe let’s not count our chickens and all that. Rock
COL @ MIN Apparently Gavin Prout will miss this weekend, although the Mammoth said that about John Grant after the weekend he missed and he played anyway. The biggest question of this game is: will it be Evan Kirk or Tyler Carlson that gives up John Grant’s 116th point of the year? Or will they say “Sorry, Mr. Grant, not on my watch”? Given the season Grant’s had, that would be rather surprising, but surprising things just keep happening in the NLL this season. Mammoth
PHI @ ROC I really wanted to pick Philly just because I can’t imagine them going into the playoffs on a five-game losing streak. But I couldn’t imagine the Bandits going on a six-game losing streak, or the Stealth missing the playoffs, or the Mammoth going from 5-11 to 11-4 in one year, or… The Knighthawks have owned the Wings this year, going 2-0 with a combined score of 33-20. Knighthawks
BUF @ WAS I know, I know, I said I was done with the Bandits, but holy crap, Anthony Cosmo was great last weekend. And the one before. The Stealth are playing for exactly nothing while the Bandits are shaping up for the playoffs. Bandits

Previous weeks:

Week 1 – 0-1
Week 2 – 2-2
Week 3 – 2-2
Week 4 – 2-4
Week 5 – 2-2
Week 6 – 1-3
Week 7 – 2-2
Week 8 – 1-3
Week 9 – 2-2
Week 10 – 2-4
Week 11 – 1-2
Week 12 – 1-5
Week 13 – 5-0
Week 14 – 2-2
Week 15 – 0-4
Week 16 – 3-2

Interview: Steve Toll

Toll as a KnighthawkSpeedin’ Stevie Toll is currently playing in his fifteenth season in the NLL. Toll has seen it all, through five teams, five NLL Championships, and one Transition Player of the Year award. It was thought that he retired after the 2011 season, though that was never made official, and it was assumed that his involvement in the Canadian Lacrosse League (as Director of Operations of both the Durham Turfdogs and the Oshawa Machine) was the reason. But a little over halfway through the 2012 season, Toll decided he couldn’t stay away any longer, and signed with the Edmonton Rush.

It has been argued by some that Toll deserves to be in the NLL Hall of Fame, but we’ll have to wait until his real retirement to see if that happens.

I recently had the honour of talking to Steve about Edmonton’s upcoming playoff game, his return to the NLL, memories of his time with the Toronto Rock, and his involvement with CLax and the NALL. Many thanks to Steve for taking the time to talk with me.


Graeme Perrow: Let’s start with the upcoming NLL playoffs. Edmonton hasn’t had much success against the Roughnecks over the years, but you will be playing them in the first round of the playoffs. Will the history between the teams come into play at all?
Steve Toll: It’ll come into play a little bit, their confidence maybe. But every year’s a new year, and obviously there’s a lot of different guys on the team so I think we’ve just got to go with a positive attitude and stick to the game plan. Really, the big thing about going into Calgary, they’re such a good team, is not letting them go on the three or four-goal runs runs that they can go on in a hurry. If we can contain those, we should be in good shape.

GP: The Rush defense is one of the strongest in the league, but the offense has struggled this year. Calgary’s defense is also very strong – do you plan on making any changes to the offensive strategies against the Roughnecks?
ST: It’s just trying to get better looks. Like you said, their defense is very good and their goaltending is playing very good right now too. To score in this league, you have to get quality looks, goalies aren’t going to let in bad goals very often. Our offense is doing whatever it takes to get a good shot away, not just throwing it at the net hoping it will go in and being happy with that. You gotta make it a quality shot.

GP: You are playing the Rock this weekend, but the game means nothing to your playoff position. Is it more difficult to get pumped up for a so-called “meaningless” game?
ST: I think we want to go out on a positive note for us. It means a lot to Toronto, I do believe that they could still finish first. We really don’t want to go into Calgary losing our last two games, so that’s one thing, and someone said that they’re one of the only teams we’ve played this year that we haven’t beaten, so hopefully we can deny them. Plus we could meet them down the road in the playoffs hopefully, and we’d rather not be going into Toronto if we ever do get that far.

 

GP: A few questions about your NLL career. When you retired after the 2011 season, did you have any plans of coming back to the NLL as a player?
ST: I never really announced my retirement. A lot of other people said it, but I never officially retired. The league sends you retirement papers when they hear things like that, and if you’re gonna retire you sign them, but I always felt that I had a little more to give, and we’ll see what happens.

GP: When did you first entertain the idea of returning to the floor?
ST: I actually thought about it from the start of the year that I was going to come back. Actually, Edmonton had approached me at the start but at that time I thought I was going back to Colorado so I actually told Edmonton no. Then Colorado made some trades for some D guys, and said they were going in a different direction, which is understandable. I know Derek Keenan very well and we kinda talked about it, and I said I think I can help out in a couple of different ways, and it kind of went from there.

GP: Shawn Williams is a friend of yours – was he involved in the decision?
ST: No, it wasn’t really Willy, it was more Derek Keenan.

GP: Is this season your swan song in the NLL, or could you see yourself coming back again in 2013?
ST: I’m not sure. At times I’ve felt like it would probably be my final season because I wanted to go out on my terms, and thanks to Edmonton I can go out on those terms. But it’s weird, you get that feeling where you want to go back for more, like when we played that game in Colorado [GP: Edmonton beat Colorado 14-11 last weekend; Toll scored 3 goals], it just felt good, seeing that I could still play the game. Obviously I’m not the player I used to be, but we’ve got 7 O guys and 11 D guys, so on most teams I like to think I’m the best 11th D guy you could have around, because I can do the penalty kill, and bring some leadership and all that too. We’ll have to see though, my kids are getting older, it would have to be a family decision.

GP: The game has changed over the course of your career. What rule changes have had the most impact in that time? What strategies did you use in the past that aren’t as effective anymore, and are there new strategies that you’re using now that you wouldn’t have ten years ago?
ST: I can’t think of any drastic rule changes. I think a big difference from my point of view is going from 15 to 18 guys dressed for a game. Back when we had 15 guys, we had role players, all the guys did something really well. Nowadays, if the league is 15 guys, I’m not playing right now, plain and simple. That’s one rule – if there’s 9 teams in the league and 15 guys on a team, I’m not playing. That’s one rule that’s helped my career!

One rule I do hate is the scoring from behind the net. That bothers me.

With the Mammoth, 2011

GP: How has your game changed as your career has progressed?
ST: I think I’ve just matured as a player, and realized what I can and can’t do, and the things I can still do I try to do exceptionally well. Obviously I’ve been known to do the penalty kill and can pick off passes and start the fast break, so I think I can still do that. Anyone who plays the game knows their role and obviously I can’t take off up the floor like I used to, taking five breakaway passes a game from Jim Veltman like I used to. I can still run the floor, maybe not as fast, but just try to help out any way possible.

GP: It’s been a couple of years since you wore a Rock jersey, I guess it would be seven or eight years now?
ST: Yeah, I got traded in the summer of 2004 or 2005. [GP: It was July of 2004.]

GP: You saw a lot of success with the Rock. Was there one moment or event that stood out as your favourite memory of your time with the Rock?
ST: I would have to say probably the win in Rochester. I remember the pre-game speech by Les Bartley saying how we’d never won in that building but the best line I’ve ever heard him say was “We’ve never won in this building, but we’ve never had to win in this building.” That line sticks out in my mind so much. We played there during the season, but we didn’t have to win during the season. We’ve been here a lot and we didn’t have to win but now we need to win. I think that would probably be one of my best memories of being there. Plus I got two short-handed goals in the first quarter. That helps a little.

GP: Who are some of the first- or second-year players in the NLL today that you think could be stars for many years to come?
ST: Well, I’m playing with one in Kyle Rubisch. I mean, he’s already a star, and in my mind he is the best defensive player in the league. That kid has it all. He’s like a younger version of Brodie Merrill. He definitely has all the tools, I mean he can do whatever you ask, he can score, he can do it all.

Offensively, hmmm. Well, he’s still young in some ways, but little Evy [GP: Shawn Evans] has been around forever too, but he’s not that old, you know what I mean? I liked what I saw of Johnny Powless who I watched in a few games. I like Keogh as well, and obviously the big Crowley kid in Philadelphia. They have a lot of potential. A lot of potential.

GP: Have you played much field lacrosse, or are you strictly an indoor guy?
ST: Nope, the only time I ever played field lacrosse was ’98, ’02, and ’06 for Team Canada. Those are my only field lacrosse memories. Too much running in field lacrosse.

GP: There was talk at one point that you were going to play in the NALL before their legal troubles began. Is that possibility still out there for next year?
ST: I’m not sure, I just read one article saying they’re coming back with a new name…
GP: The PLL – Professional Lacrosse League.
ST: Yeah. I’m still actually in touch with Jacksonville but Paul Stewart has a different role now, he’s actually gone to the league side of things. I’m not sure if I’ll be playing or maybe even coaching in the league. To me, it’s just guys wanting a place to play lacrosse, and that’s what I’m all about. That’s one of the reasons I joined CLax. Paul St. John and Jim Veltman invented a spot for 120 kids to play lacrosse. When I was that young, I’d have loved that opportunity too, so for me to give back is an easy decision, and it’s the same with this league. Yeah, most of them are going to be American, but I want the NLL to grow and grow, and these guys are going to be moving on to the NLL. Whatever helps the game, and as long as the family agrees, I’m in.

GP: A few questions about the Canadian Lacrosse League. How did you first get involved with CLax?
ST: It’s funny, they actually talked to Shawn Williams initially about coming on but obviously he was already playing so he mentioned it to me, and I met with Jim and Paul St. John and it kinda went from there. Obviously those guys did a tremendous amount of work and to me, yeah the league might have lost a little bit of money, but it was successful in a lot of ways. For the Championship game they had over a thousand people, and our last game in Oshawa we had over seven hundred people. It was an easy decision, I mean there were two teams here in Oshawa for guys that would just be sitting around partying all winter long, and now they’re playing lacrosse and staying in shape. It’s good for the game.

GP: How difficult was it to be so closely involved with lacrosse but not playing? Did you ever consider putting the equipment on and getting out there on the floor?
ST: It was actually, and I did actually! Paul and I had talked right around the time that Edmonton called, and I was even thinking about it. I’m not saying it might have helped or drew a few more people in, but I tell ya, that’s when I knew that I either had to come back there or go to the NLL because watching those games, I still had the itch. I saw the guys making mistakes, I wished I could be out there helping ’em. It definitely gave me the itch to get out there and play again.

Toll the executiveGP: Will you be back in the same position with the Turfdogs and Machine next year?
ST: Yeah, we just gotta get things finalized. It’s hard when one guy owns all six teams when he’d like to just worry about his two teams. It’s a process, and it’s an uphill battle for those boys, they’re willing to keep fighting and fighting. Find a guy with some deep pockets, maybe willing to lose a couple in the first couple of years and make it at the end, that’s what you gotta hope for. I hope it succeeds, and I hope the NLL jumps on board too. I don’t understand, it should be an automatic AHL-type affiliate. Automatic, in my opinion. Have a couple of NLL teams have a couple of affiliates and you can send guys there. Why have guys sitting in Denver to be on a practice roster practicing once a week and not playing a game. It makes no sense. Zero.

GP: That kinda what I assumed CLax was going to turn into. It hasn’t happened yet, though it’s only been a year, but it seemed to me to be the most obvious route to go.
ST: I agree with you 100%. But now it’s down to “You should be paying us” “Well, you should be paying us”. Why don’t we just talk about the situation, do what’s best for the guys, and worry about the money situation later. It could be an affiliate where you could move guys, send them down, call them back up. I think it’d be ideal for both leagues.

GP: The season is barely over, but do you know of any major changes planned for the next season, either in in your teams or with the league as a whole?
ST: No, from what I’ve heard from a lot of the General Managers, we all like the rules. Everyone seems to be a big fan of that front door rule, which I was a fan of too. That game was fast at times. It was funny because the very first game I went to, they pulled their goalie and they shot too early, then tried to get their goalie out the back door and it ended up being a penalty shot because you’ve got to go out the front door. They weren’t used to it yet, so he went out the wrong door. I was a big fan of that rule for sure.

GP: I was just about to ask about that rule. So do you think it did have the desired effect, forcing players to play at both ends rather than having your strict offensive guys and your strict defensive guys?
ST: Yeah, but the part I worry about is that the NLL is obviously not going to adopt that rule and you’re making those players do that. But if you have a two-way guy in CLax, and maybe he’s always been on offense but now he’s playing defense, well you know what? If he’s just working on offense the whole time he’d be getting better, but now he’s playing defense and when he goes to the NLL he’s still not going to be playing defense against Colin Doyle. So realistically, why not just go offense / defense? But there were some guys that you could get off the floor, but you had to make sure they were off the floor. It was hard, but it could be done, but just the one door definitely made it tough.

GP: OK, a few quick ones before I let you go. Toughest goalie to score on?
ST: Toughest goalie for me personally was Patty O’Toole. I liked shooting on smaller goalies. Like, even though Eliuk was real good, and Disher and all those guys. I just liked smaller goalies. I don’t know why. Probably because I didn’t shoot hard.

GP: Toughest forward to defend against?
ST: Definitely John Grant Jr. because he’s big, strong, and he could bulldoze ya, he could dodge ya, he could roll around ya, and if you came to double him, he’s throw a backhand reverse pass to the guy next to you anyway. I never got to cover those guys anyway. I’d always go on the floor, and they’d say “Toll, we all have matchups, you’ve got the fifth guy”. I never really had a guy anyways cause I was in the middle getting ready to cheat and weave anyway so I never really watched anybody.

GP: You were getting ready for the breakaway in the other direction.
ST: Yeah, I was already gone.

GP: Favourite arena to play in as a visitor?
ST: Definitely Denver. Well, you know what? I initially came right away with Denver but then I’m thinking of some of those Buffalo Bandits fans. But I’d have to say Denver was my favourite.

GP: I’ve never seen a game in Denver, but I’ve been to Buffalo a few times and they can be pretty darn loud in Buffalo.
ST: They can be really loud there, yeah. Both places are excellent. But I tell ya, there’s just something about Denver. You gotta go to Denver. It’s just the city there, everything. It’s one of the most beautiful places – if I had to pick a place to live, that’s where I would live. That’s the spot.

GP: Teammate you learned the most from as a young player?
ST: Playing in the NLL, definitely it would be Jim Veltman. He did so many things on the floor, off the floor, he was a pure team leader. It’s little things, like a little story: we lost a game in Philadelphia, I think it was in overtime, and then we flew back again at 10:30 in the morning. Obviously the boys were all sad that we lost, and still a little hung over, and all of a sudden the flight attendant comes out with like 30 beers and she goes “These are from the captain, get your heads up”. Just little things like that that no other guys would do. Just getting the boys back on track, like “Don’t worry about it, boys, it’s a loss. No big deal.”

GP: Well, that’s all the questions I have. Thanks a lot for doing this, Steve, I really appreciate it.
ST: Hey, no problem, anytime!

Week 16 picks

Two weeks ago, I went undefeated. This past weekend, I was nothing but defeated. Another 0-fer weekend, though it is only my second, and the first was only one game. But still. It’s no longer possible for me to finish at or above .500 on the season; the best I can do is 4 games under, and that’s if I win out.

Record: 25-38 (.397)

Game

Comments

Pick

EDM @ COL I had a bad feeling picking the Rock over the Mammoth last week. It’s like the “Rock fan” part of my brain kept yelling “Go Rock Go! We can do it!” and some of the “unbiased blogger” part said “The Rock do have the talent to beat anyone, and Nick Rose played really well in his first 3 starts, sure they could do it!” But there was another part yelling from the other room “HELLO?! John Grant – does that name ring a bell? Levis? Prout? Jones? Allen? Ten wins?” Should have listened to that guy. This week he’s yelling even louder. Mammoth
TOR @ WAS Nobody knows what to make of Washington. I keep hearing (and I agree) that they have too much talent to be losing this often, but it’s no longer a couple of bad games in row. They’re 4-10 and still in dead last. And yes, one of those four wins was a convincing victory against the Rock. But the Rock were without Blaine Manning and Colin Doyle and had Matt Roik in net. They’re a different team now. Rock
ROC @ BUF I’ve given up on the Bandits this year. During their six-game losing streak, I decided they’d have to show me that they could play good lacrosse before I’d pick them again. Then they did, and so I picked them again. And then they sucked again and I went back to not picking them. And then they kicked Philadelphia’s butt and I picked them against the Rush. But then they lost again. I can’t figure these guys out at all. I’m done. Knighthawks
CAL @ EDM Sorry Rush, you’re in for a rough weekend. First the Mammoth on Friday and then the Roughnecks on Saturday. The two best teams in the league on back-to-back days. Part of me thinks that after getting beaten by the Mammoth on Friday night, the Rush will be even more motivated to beat the Roughnecks in Edmonton. But then there’s that guy in the other room yelling “HELLO?! Shattler? Dickson? Ranger? Eleven wins?” If Mike Poulin returns to the net, this game is Calgary’s to lose. If he’s still out, the Rush could pull off the upset, but again I have to play the odds. Roughnecks
PHI @ MIN The Swarm went through a four-game losing streak in the middle of the season, including losing to the lowly Bandits and getting blown away by the Stealth. But they’ve rebounded nicely and have won two in a row, one of which was over these same Philadelphia Wings. The Wings, on the other hand, have lost three in a row with a stinker against the Bandits two weeks ago. The fact that the Swarm have already clinched a playoff spot will boost their confidence, and having Ryan Benesch back will boost them even further. Swarm

Previous weeks:

Week 1 – 0-1
Week 2 – 2-2
Week 3 – 2-2
Week 4 – 2-4
Week 5 – 2-2
Week 6 – 1-3
Week 7 – 2-2
Week 8 – 1-3
Week 9 – 2-2
Week 10 – 2-4
Week 11 – 1-2
Week 12 – 1-5
Week 13 – 5-0
Week 14 – 2-2
Week 15 – 0-4

Week 15 Picks

I had it. I freaking had it. I originally picked Minnesota to beat the Wings last week, and then realized that Ryan Benesch was still hurt, and I changed my pick. I was all ready for a last minute “Benesch is in the lineup after all!” win by Minnesota, and what happened? The Swarm still won without Benny. I guess the Swarm found my lack of faith disturbing. I have paid the price for my lack of vision.

Of course, what are the odds that someone took a screen shot of my picks from last week and timestamped it, showing the way the page was at game time? I could easily change and re-publish the article, then claim that I changed it back before the games. But I won’t do that. Damn you, integrity, damn you all to hell. You’re always getting in the way.

All four games this week are brutal. There isn’t a single game this week that’s even close to an easy pick. I thought Calgary over Rochester was a relatively easy one last week, but Rochester made it close which makes their rematch this week in Rochester tougher to pick. Toronto and Colorado are both near the top of their divisions, while the games in Edmonton and Minnesota involve four teams fighting for a playoff spot.

Record: 25-34 (.424)

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TOR @ COL This will be a tough game for both teams, no question. With Grant on one side and Billings on the other, don’t expect a 8-7 final. This will be the first real test for Nick Rose as a starter. But the Rock are healthy, firing on all cylinders, and have tons of confidence. When they play like that, the defending champs can beat anybody. Rock
BUF @ EDM I have no idea what to do about Bandits games. They either play really well or really badly, but Cosmo’s performance last weekend (and that of the whole team) has to give them some confidence. They held Philly to only 7 goals, and Philly has a better offense than Edmonton. Edmonton has a better defense than the Wings, but Buffalo shouldn’t need 17 goals to win. Bandits
WAS @ MIN I waffled on this one the most. In their last 6 games or so, the Stealth have been playing a lot more like I expected them to at the beginning of the year. They kicked the Swarm all over the place a couple of weeks ago, and lost a close one to the Roughnecks the week after. I’ve only picked Minnesota in 3 games this year, but they have yet to win when I pick them. Sorry Swarm. Stealth
CAL @ ROC As I said, a much harder pick this week based on last week’s game between these two, but I still think Calgary’s #1 in the league so I gotta go with them. Roughnecks

Previous weeks:

Week 1 – 0-1
Week 2 – 2-2
Week 3 – 2-2
Week 4 – 2-4
Week 5 – 2-2
Week 6 – 1-3
Week 7 – 2-2
Week 8 – 1-3
Week 9 – 2-2
Week 10 – 2-4
Week 11 – 1-2
Week 12 – 1-5
Week 13 – 5-0
Week 14 – 2-2

What you need to know to win in the playoffs

Only one team can win the Championship and given both the parity in the NLL this year and the one-and-done playoff format, it’s possible for anyone who makes the playoffs to win it all. So far, nobody has been eliminated from the playoff race, and it’s looking more and more like that outcome won’t be decided until the final weekend. Every team has their strengths and weaknesses, and opposing teams will be focussing on how they can exploit those weaknesses. What will it take for each team to reach the pinnacle of the NLL, and what will it take to shut each team down?

Calgary Roughnecks

The Roughnecks have to make sure their offense isn’t neutralized by a tough defense. Because all you have to do to be successful against the ‘Necks is shut down Shattler and Ranger and Dickson and Veltman and Evans and Dobbie and Conway and Toth and Snider and Cornwall. Once you’ve done that, all you have to do is score a bunch of goals on the best defense in the league and you’re golden.

Colorado Mammoth

Obviously, this year’s MVP favourite John Grant needs to be the focus for opposing teams. The Mammoth have proven that they can win without him but in the playoffs, his presence is vital. This is, of course, assuming that he’s not out rescuing kittens from trees, reducing crime in the greater Denver area, performing delicate life-saving surgery, or leaping tall buildings in a single bound.

Edmonton Rush

If you’re defending against the Rush in the playoffs, get near the Rush player with the ball. Then remind him that he plays for a team based in the “City of Champions” and as such, he has a high standard to uphold. His uncontrollable laughter should allow you to strip the ball from him for a quick transition chance.

Minnesota Swarm

Many people picked the Swarm to miss the playoffs because of all the unproven rookies on the team, but those rookies have played better than anyone expected. Now they have to see if they can handle the pressures of the NLL playoffs. But first they have to get their social studies homework finished and get some work done on those science fair projects. Good thing the games don’t happen on school nights.

Washington Stealth

Whispering “Bruce Urban” when standing close to Athan Iannucci should get him rattled and reduce his effectiveness. Also, if the game goes to overtime, pretty much your only chance is to go all Tonya Harding on Rhys Duch.

Buffalo Bandits

John Tavares is 43, and so this may be his last season in the NLL. I’m sure his teammates would love to see him go out the way Bob Watson did, winning a Championship in his last game, so they’ll be playing extra hard for JT. Of course, many people have wondered “Is this Tavares’ last season?” for about five years now, and the way he played this year, the pressure to win now “for JT” is reduced. They might consider “win now for Darris”. Actually, they might want to think about “Win now for everyone but JT” because if they don’t win this year, he may be the only current Bandit left on the roster next season.

Philadelphia Wings

Shutting down the strong right side of the Wings’ offense is the key to beating the Wings, so you need to send your biggest, strongest defenders out against them. When they’re facing the likes of Crowley, Dawson, and Westervelt, have your defenders just pound on their kneecaps until they fall down, then tie them to the ground with ropes.

Rochester Knighthawks

The Knighthawks have five players listed at 175 pounds or less. Kedoh Hill is listed at just 150. Mounting a strong fan behind your goalie should keep them from getting in too close, but NLL regulations may prevent that. Just get out there and use your body against them, they should be easy to push around. Unless you get too close to Sid Smith or Craig Point or, God forbid, Tim O’Brien. Note: if using this strategy, stay the hell away from Jake Henhawk.

Toronto Rock

I know I’m a Rock fan, but I’m going to be completely objective here. The key to shutting the Rock down is Stephen Leblanc. He was the 2010 Rookie of the Year and also had a great 2011 campaign, and if John Grant wasn’t having such a great season, who knows how many MVP votes Leblanc might have gotten this year. He’s the real backbone of the Rock offense, and all opposing defenders should really focus on him and ignore everyone else. Especially Doyle. And Billings – totally leave him open alone.

Game Report: Edmonton 8 @ Toronto 12

The Edmonton Rush had never won in Toronto going into Saturday night’s game. But the Rush that played on Saturday was quite different from those previous teams, including a new captain, new forwards, new defenders, and a new goalie. None of those changes was enough to break the streak though, as the Rock beat the Rush 12-8 to clinch a berth in the playoffs.

The game featured the return of two of Toronto’s offensive stars: Josh Sanderson, who had missed two games with an upper body injury, and Blaine Manning who has missed most of the season after breaking his collarbone in the second game of the year. Both were involved in the scoring, Josh with a goal and Manning with a goal (his 800th point in the NLL) and an assist. But then again, almost everyone was involved in the scoring – there were ten different Rock goal scorers and four others got assists. Garrett Billings, who would be a strong MVP candidate were it not for one John C. Grant Jr. in Colorado, scored the Rock’s first goal and added six assists, and Colin Doyle continued his strong play after returning from injury with a hat-trick (Toronto’s only multiple-goal scorer) and two assists.

While it was awesome that Billings was involved in every Rock goals in last week’s game, it did mean (and Billings pointed this out himself in an interview) that there were zero transition goals scored by the Rock in that game. That changed in a big way this week, as the Rock scored four on transition, all in the second, including three in a row. Rob Marshall’s was a beauty, as he and Blaine Manning came in on a 2-on-1. It looked like Marshall was just waiting for the right moment to pass to Manning and then he shot it himself, top corner. Manning didn’t get an assist because he didn’t touch the ball, but he deserved a virtual one.

Nick Rose allowed two goals in the first 4 1/2 minutes of the game, and I’m sure that was not how he wanted to show the Toronto fans what he could do in his home debut. But he settled down nicely after that, only allowing one more goal until over half way through the third quarter. But I’m sure I heard a few boos from the crowd on the Rush’s third and fourth goals (at 7:35 of the 2nd and 8:13 of the third respectively). Rose has allowed four goals in 3 1/2 quarters (after allowing less than 10 goals in each of this first two games, both wins), and you’re booing him? WTF, people? He (and the defense, it wasn’t entirely Rose’s fault) did allow the Rush to get back in it, as they scored five in a row. But those five took place over more than a quarter of play, so it’s not like he fell apart. The five straight Edmonton goals were as much a fault of the offense as the defense – Toronto went over 19 minutes without scoring in the third and fourth.

In the second and early third, the Rock scored nine straight to go from losing 3-2 to up 11-3. But before and after this streak, the Edmonton defense was stifling. Nobody could get near the net or get any decent shots on Bold. The Edmonton transition was pretty impressive as well, though not as successful as Toronto’s. Derek Suddons scored the opening goal, and Chris Corbeil scored from Bold in the third. And man, that Jeff Cornwall is fast. Didn’t see much of Steve Toll in the first half and just as I pointed out to someone that Toll hadn’t played much, we saw him on the floor and he intercepted a pass (one of at least five for both teams on the night), a skill he has always excelled at.

Every team makes errant passes now and again; nobody has pinpoint accuracy 100% of the time. But there were at least two made by the Rock to which”errant” just doesn’t do justice. Phil Sanderson had the ball in his own end and started up the floor. Brenden Thenhaus came off the bench and expected the pass, but it never came. Then Billings came off the bench and didn’t expect the pass, but Sanderson passed to him anyway. But even if Billings had been paying attention, the pass was ten feet away from him. Chris Corbeil grabbed it, passed to Derek Suddons, who passed to Ryan Ward who scored. Later on, Colin Doyle passed across the floor to Stephan Leblanc and again, even if Leblanc had seen the pass it still would have been way too far away for him to catch. Those are the kinds of plays you expect to see in the first game of the year, not the thirteenth by a team battling for first place.

Special teams didn’t come into play much. There were only six power plays by both teams all night, with the Rock scoring two PP goals and the Rush one. One of the Toronto goals could be attributed directly to Tyler Codron; Codron was hit by (I think) Billings, who was called for a moving pick. As the possession change occurred, Billings turned around and ran towards the Rock bench, only to be blatantly cross-checked from behind by Codron. It was a selfish retaliatory penalty by a team that had been disciplined all night, and 16 seconds later, Blaine Manning made him pay by scoring his first goal in almost three months.

It was announced before the game that the Rock needed to win and Buffalo needed to lose in order for the Rock to clinch a playoff spot but later on (after the Bandits won), the Rock tweeted that they had indeed clinched a spot. I’m guessing that somehow, a scenario that would allow them to clinch without a Buffalo loss was missed. Edmonton has a more difficult road to the playoffs – they basically have to keep pace with the Stealth as they own the tiebreaker with Washington. But Edmonton has the tougher schedule remaining, with games against Buffalo, Colorado, Calgary, and another against Toronto while Washington takes on Minnesota, Toronto, and Buffalo.

Other game notes:

  • After the debacle with the anthem at the last game, the Rock went with a sure thing this time, bringing out a 7-year-old girl to sing the anthem. Who’s gonna boo a 7-year-old? Sure enough, there was no booing, and the little girl did a very good job singing in front of 14,000 people. While she was walking off the floor after the anthem, Colin Doyle ran up to her to tell her she did a great job. Classy move by the captain.
  • Former Rock players on the Rush: Williams, Wilson, Codron, Suddons, Steve Toll, Dilks, Quinlan.
  • There were three guys sitting about 7 rows ahead of me with three different NLL jerseys – Ravens, Blazers, and one from an All-Star game. Don’t remember the last time I saw a Ravens jersey.
  • Holy crap, is Brodie MacDonald big. When standing in front of the net, the top of the net was at his elbows.
  • One fight in the game: Rookie Jesse Gamble and Aaron Wilson?!
  • There was one goaltender equipment check, shortly after Brodie MacDonald replaced Aaron Bold in the Rush net. A few minutes later, Bold was back in. A tweet I saw presented without comment: “Did Edmonton pull Bold just for the equipment checks?”
  • I’ve read this about hockey, but it seems to apply even more so to lacrosse. We always hear about lacrosse players being one big family and there’s so much respect among the players, and everyone is just overflowing with integrity. So why do they use the intentionally-vague terms “upper-body injury” and “lower-body injury” so often? Other than avoiding embarrassment, (“Joe Quicksticks is out of the game tonight because of hemorrhoids”), the only reason to use those vague terms is to avoid targeting: If everyone knows that Joe’s left shoulder is hurt, they might try to hit him extra hard in that shoulder. But surely these players with so much integrity wouldn’t try to intentionally hurt their “brother”, would they?

Week 14 picks

Wow. A week after saying “Do I ever suck at this game prediction thing”, I had my first above-.500 weekend of the season, a 5-0 sweep. I checked each game with my predictions several times to be sure. So reaching .500 on the season is still possible, and I only have to go 13-4 the rest of the way to do it!

But let’s not get ahead of ourselves here. I just gotta take it one game at a time. While I’m at it, I’ll give it 110%, step up my play, and make sure bring my A-game because you know there’s no I in team!

Record: 23-32 (.418)

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ROC @ CAL Calgary is now the #1 team in the league, and they are fighting for home field advantage throughout the playoffs. Rochester could still miss the playoffs, but they are in less danger of that than the Bandits, Rush, or Stealth. Going with the ‘Necks here. Calgary is just too strong. Roughnecks
MIN @ PHI I had a really tough time on this one. In fact I originally posted this article with the Swarm logo in this spot. But I was then reminded about Ryan Benesch’s injury – he missed last weekend’s games with a concussion and I somehow forgot that. My original prediction said that “I imagine Evan Kirk will be starting … and he’s been simply awesome this year” which is true but without Benesch, the Swarm will have a tougher time getting by the strong defense of the Wings. Wings
PHI @ BUF As always, it depends which Bandits team shows up. If it’s the one that pounded the Rock a couple of weeks ago, then they can beat Philly. But if it’s the one that we’ve seen more often than not this year, this should be an easy win for the Wings. Wings
EDM @ TOR The Rush have never won in Toronto, and have been struggling to find offense all season while the Rock seem to have found a groove and have won two straight. Rock

Previous weeks:

Week 1 – 0-1
Week 2 – 2-2
Week 3 – 2-2
Week 4 – 2-4
Week 5 – 2-2
Week 6 – 1-3
Week 7 – 2-2
Week 8 – 1-3
Week 9 – 2-2
Week 10 – 2-4
Week 11 – 1-2
Week 12 – 1-5
Week 13 – 5-0

Week 13 picks

Wow. Do I ever suck at this game prediction thing. 1-5 last week, and I’m now getting to the point where if I get every pick for the rest of the season right, I might end up at .500. Just did the math: including the five this weekend, there are 22 games left in the season. To end up at or above .500 (i.e. the same odds as flipping a coin for each game), I have to go 18-4 from now on. Here we go.

Record: 18-32 (.360)

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CAL @ MIN I know Minnesota beat them a couple of weeks ago, but I still think Calgary is the top team in the league. It was just announced that Ryan Benesch will miss this weekend’s games with a concussion, so that won’t help the Swarm. This is why I usually wait until Friday to post my picks. (Because it’s made soooo much difference thus far.) Roughnecks
TOR @ BUF The Bandits will be pissed after last week, but they’ve been pissed most of the season and it’s done them no good. Yeah, they wiped the floor with the Rock a couple of weeks ago, but the Rock played much better the next week while the Bandits played much worse. The Bandits are over .500 (9-6) lifetime in Toronto, while the Rock are way over .500 (6-12) in Buffalo. Rock
WAS @ CAL Washington has definitely improved in recent weeks, but as determined as they are to make the playoffs, the Roughnecks are just as determined to finish first overall, and a couple of wins this weekend are what’s required to get in front of Colorado. I also know (thanks to an upcoming article) that when a team plays an away game followed by a home game in the same weekend, the most likely scenario is that they sweep both games. Playin’ the odds. Roughnecks
MIN @ EDM Edmonton is a better team than their record indicates and while the Swarm are still a good team without Benesch, I think the Rush will look at this as a golden opportunity to move up and try to get out of last place. Rush
COL @ ROC John Grant returns to Rochester. To my knowledge, there are no hard feelings either way – he didn’t demand a trade, nor is he upset with the Knighthawks trading him, and there were no personal issues with ownership or the coach or anything. There’s no reason to believe (a) he’ll be booed by the Knighthawks fans, or (b) he’ll have a chip on his shoulder and something to prove, so I’m not sure it’ll have that big an effect on his play. That and Shewchuk and Mac Allen are both back bodes well for the Mammoth. Mammoth

Previous weeks:

Week 1 – 0-1
Week 2 – 2-2
Week 3 – 2-2
Week 4 – 2-4
Week 5 – 2-2
Week 6 – 1-3
Week 7 – 2-2
Week 8 – 1-3
Week 9 – 2-2
Week 10 – 2-4
Week 11 – 1-2
Week 12 – 1-5