Week 14 picks

Posted on March 28, 2014 by Graeme

I went 2-2 last weekend, getting the west games right (Edmonton, Calgary) and the east games wrong (Toronto, Buffalo). Since Tyler only went 1-3, we’re now tied at 39-16, one game better than the top IL Indoor prognosticator, Bob Chavez.

Record: 39-16 (.709)

Game	Comments	Pick
EDM @ ROC	Toughest test yet for the Rush. Of course, I thought the Bandits would be a tough test for the Rush and they handled them like they were the 2013 Bandits. Looking forward to this one.
MIN @ CAL	Last week’s Swarm victory over the Bandits (and their OT loss to the Rock the week before) gave the Swarm some confidence but it’ll take more than confidence to get past Mike Poulin and keep from getting swamped by the Calgary powerhouse offense. Imagine how good they’d be with Scott Ranger in the lineup every day.
PHI @ COL	Adam Jones returns alongside Casey Powell, John Grant, and Drew Westervelt. Oh and Sean Pollock, Athan Iannucci, and Joel Dalgarno. Obviously Jones’ injury hurt and Powell and Iannucci have only played 5 games each, but this team should really be in the top few in goals scored per game rather than 8th. Still, they have the firepower to get by Philly as long as Mr. Crowley doesn’t have another one of those outbursts like last weekend.
BUF @ VAN	Buffalo’s street cred took a bit of a beating last weekend, getting blown out by the best team in the league and then losing to the worst team in the league. But I think they’re still a good enough team to beat the floundering Stealth.
EDM @ TOR	I’m bringing my dad to this game so hopefully the Rock puts on a good show. If the Rock from the early part of the season – who lost to the Rush by 1, beat the Roughnecks handily, and demolished the Wings – shows up we’re in good shape. At least they’ll put up a good fight. If the more recent Rock, losers of four of the last five, show up, we’re in trouble. Either way, I think the Rush take this one.

The NLL Pronunciation Guide 2014

Posted on March 27, 2014 by Graeme

There I am, just sitting at my computer watching the Swarm play the Bandits… when it happens. I’m not shocked, but a little startled. A week later, the Rock are playing the Swarm and it happens again, more than once. Again, not shocking but my anxiety level starts to rise. Then it happens again this past weekend (I was so distraught I don’t even remember which game it was), and I lose it. I snap. I resolve right then and there to write yet another name pronunciation guide (here’s last year’s and the original from 2011) in the hopes that the NLL announcers will read it and start pronouncing the players’ names right, even if only for a change of pace. I may have to start doing one of these every year to cover the rookies.

A couple of times recently I’ve even heard announcers getting names entirely wrong. If you see “Aaron Wilson” and decide “Aaron” is pronounced “COLL-in”, well I can’t help you. I’m doing my best by writing this article but I’m no miracle worker.

Note that not all NLL announcers are in need of this list. Guys like Dave Walls and Jake Elliott know the league and the players and while they might get a rookie’s name wrong in his first game, they’re not going to mess up Kelusky or Steenhuis. But not all of the announcers are as familiar with the players, so this article is for them.

I’ve organized the names alphabetically within their teams starting with the East division.

Buffalo

Ryan Benesch – buh-NESH

Kevin Brownell – brow-NELL

Steve Priolo – pree-O-lo

Joe Resetarits – res-uh-TARE-its

Dhane Smith – DANE

Mark Steenhuis – STAIN-house

John Tavares – tuh-VAR-es

Jay Thorimbert – THOR-im-burt

Kurtis Wagar – WAY-ger

Minnesota

Callum Crawford – CAL-um. Not CAY-lum.

Alex Crepinsek – CREP-in-seck

Kiel Matisz – KYLE muh-TEEZ

Logan Schuss – SHUSS (rhymes with BUS). Confirmed by Logan himself.

Corbyn Tao – COR-bin TOW (TOW rhymes with COW)

Philadelphia

CJ Costabile – COST-a-bull

Kevin Crowley – CROW-lee where CROW also rhymes with COW, not like the bird CROW

Tracey Kelusky – kuh-LUH-skee. Not kuh-LOO-skee

Garrett Thul – THOOL

Chad Wiedmaier – WEED-myer

Rochester

Mike Accursi – uh-KER-see

Stephen Keogh – KEY-o

Matt Vinc – like the name VINCE. Not VINK

Cory Vitarelli – vit-uh-REL-ee

Toronto

Kasey Beirnes – BEERns. Not BEER-ness

Nick Diachenko – dya-CHENG-ko.

Billy Hostrawser – HO-straw-zer. I got this wrong last year.

Stephen Leblanc – STEFF-in luh-BLONK. Not luh-BLANK.

Calgary

Dane Dobbie – DOUGH-bee. Not like Dobby.

Karsen Leung – lee-UNG

Tor Reinholdt – RINE-holt

Frankie Scigliano – shill-ee-ANN-o

Geoff Snider – SNY-der. One of my pet peeves is when he’s called SHNY-der.

Colorado

Tye Belanger – buh-LON-zhay

Joey Cupido – koo-PEE-do

Athan Iannucci – eye-uh-NOOCH-ee

Chet Koneczny – kon-EZ-nee

Creighton Reid – CRAY-ton

Bob Snider – SNY-der

Drew Westervelt – WEST-er-velt

Edmonton

Nik Bilic – Technically BIL-ich but most people say BIL-ik

Chris Corbeil – cor-BEEL

Riley Loewen – LOW-en where LOW does not rhyme with COW.

Brett Mydske – MID-skee

Adrian Sorichetti – sore-i-KET-ee

Kyle Rubisch – ROO-bish. My Scottish relatives might say it like “rubbish” but he’s not.

Vancouver

Rhys Duch – REES DUTCH

Ilija Gajic – ILL-ee-ya GUY-ch

Justin Pychel – PITCH-el

Nick Weiss – WEES. I know, right? Looks like WYSS! But it’s not! The hell, man?

Non-players

Steve Bermel – BERM-ull. Rhymes with “thermal”. IL Indoor Bandits writer.

Melissa Dafni – DAF-nee. One of my co-hosts on Addicted to Lacrosse.

Jamie Dawick – DOW-ick. DOW rhymes with, you guessed it, COW. Owner of the Rock.

Tyler Fitch – TY-ler FITCH. My other co-host on Addicted to Lacrosse. Easy name to pronounce but I didn’t want to leave him out.

Marisa Ingemi – muh-RISS-a in-JEMM-ee. In Lacrosse We Trust writer.

Darris Kilgour – DARE-iss KILL-gore. Former Bandits coach/GM.

Curt Malawsky – muh-LOW-skee. Had to get another COW rhyme in there. Roughnecks head coach.

Graeme Perrow – GRAY-um PAIR-o. Yours truly.

Craig Rybczynski – rib-CHIN-skee. Knighthawks broadcaster.

Grant Spies – SPEEZ. NLL ref.

Week 13 picks

Posted on March 22, 2014 by Graeme

In case you think I forgot to post this article before this week’s games started, you’re absolutely wrong. I forgot to write this article before this week’s games started. Luckily I announced my picks, as I always do, on the Addicted to Lacrosse show on Monday, so there’s no question of my making my picks after one game is over (Edmonton beat Buffalo earlier tonight) and the other is half finished (Calgary is up 8-2 on Vancouver at the half as I type this).

I went 5-0 last weekend and I’m now 11-1 in the last three weeks. Actually 12-1 since the Rush have already won this weekend.

Record: 37-14 (.725)

Game	Comments	Pick
BUF @ EDM	I keep saying this. “If anyone can beat the Rush, it’s Rochester”. “If anyone can beat the Rush, it’s Calgary”. “If anyone can beat the Rush, it’s Buffalo”. Well, they’ve all tried and failed. Pretty soon it might be “If anyone can beat the Rush, it must be 2015.”
CAL @ VAN	This pick was somewhat of a no-brainer for me, though both Tyler and Melissa picked Vancouver. Perhaps I’ve lost all confidence in the Stealth or have too much confidence in the Roughnecks, but I spent very little time thinking about this one.
TOR @ PHI	This one I thought more about. The last two Rock games have featured great first halves and lousy second halves. But they’ve done a bit of a rebuild mid-way through the season, bringing in Brandon Miller, Kevin Ross, Jimmy Purves and out of retirement, Cam Woods. Meanwhile, the Wings have lost six straight.
BUF @ MIN	Top team in the east vs. bottom team in the league – another no-brainer. Could the Swarm pull off the upset? Sure, but I’m not betting on it.

Week 12 picks

Posted on March 14, 2014 by Graeme

I was 3-1 last week, only missing the Calgary-Colorado game. Some tough ones this week, and I picked a few based solely on my gut and not on anything I can explain.

Record: 32-14 (.696)

Game	Comments	Pick
EDM @ CAL	If anybody can beat the Rush, it’s Calgary. But I have to play the odds and go with Edmonton.
ROC @ TOR	Once again, I find it hard to pick against Matt Vinc, even when it’s the Rock facing him. Despite going 0-2 the other weekend, the Rock didn’t play all that bad other than the first quarter of the Calgary game. I imagine the week off will help get everyone healthy again, but I’m still going with the Hawks.
COL @ BUF	Colorado played really well against the Roughnecks last weekend, but I still think the Bandits are the best team in the East, and best in the league outside of Edmonton.
ROC @ PHI	Rochester had a little bit of trouble with the Wings last weekend, other than the fourth quarter when they pulled away. Don’t see it going any differently this week.
TOR @ MIN	Minnesota’s confidence is rising, even if they haven’t beaten anyone but the Wings. They played strong against the Bandits last week, but I’m still picking the Rock in this one.

Week 11 picks

Posted on March 7, 2014 by Graeme

The good news: 3-0 last week! The bad news: The Rock 0-2 weekend that I predicted came true. Was kinda hoping I’d be wrong on one of those.

All three members of the Addicted to Lacrosse team made the same picks for this weekend.

Record: 29-13 (.690)

Game	Comments	Pick
MIN @ BUF	Buffalo hasn’t played in a couple of weeks, but their confidence is still running high, though Minnesota’s is probably not bad either after beating the Wings and a close loss to Toronto. Still gotta go with the Bandits.
PHI @ ROC	Philly’s lost four in a row, and they’re facing Matt Vinc. I don’t see the upset here.
CAL @ COL	Calgary’s offense was clicking big-time last weekend, and against the Colorado defense (and three rookie coaches), they might just have another field day.
VAN @ EDM	As I said on the A2L show: Vancouver minus Sorensen against the Rush? No-brainer. (Of course I hate saying “no-brainer” with NLL picks since teams like to prove me wrong.)

Game report: Minnesota 12 @ Toronto 14

Posted on February 23, 2014 by Graeme

Well, it was a better result than last week, anyway.

Last week’s Toronto Rock game sucked because the Rock started off playing strong for the first quarter and a half and then not only did they let the Knighthawks get back into it, they let the Knighthawks take complete control. In this week’s game the timing was different and the result was different, but it was similar in that the Rock should have had the game locked up but they let the Swarm get right back into it. They managed to pull off the win, but it ended up being a much closer game than it should have been. However the other big difference is that despite what was at one point a fairly lopsided score, I didn’t think the Rock were in control at all.

There were a few real weirdnesses with this game. Toronto had 13 goals and a nine goal lead in the 3rd quarter and I didn’t think they played all that well. The 1-6 Swarm were losing by 9 and had only scored 4 and weren’t playing all that bad. Nick Rose allowed only 4 goals in the first three quarters and I didn’t think he was all that strong at all, even before his collapse in the 4th.

I don’t even know how to describe the game. Despite the score, I never felt that the Rock were in control. The Minnesota defense is big and strong (Brock Sorensen had a very good game), and the Rock had some trouble getting by them, though perhaps their persistence paid off in that they’d pass around looking for a way to get through and eventually they’d find one. It reminds me of something that Tyler said on a recent Addicted to Lacrosse show about the Vancouver Stealth – they took advantage of the scoring opportunities that they were given, but they didn’t really create any.

Nick Rose was fine for most of the game, but I didn’t think he played great. He made most of the saves you expected him to make (Jordan MacIntosh’s first goal was a bit of a softie), but he still gives up too many rebounds and cannot guard against the behind-the-net Air Gait goals. He’s been burned by those more times than I can remember (thank goodness Drew Westervelt is in the west division now), and on Saturday he gave up three more in the 4th quarter alone, all by Jordan MacIntosh, including two within eleven seconds.

And then there was the comeback. The Rock managed to hold the Swarm to four goals in the first three quarters and scored eight goals in a row within 16 minutes, but then everything turned around. The Swarm held the Rock to a single goal (an empty-netter) in the final quarter, and scored seven straight in 10 minutes and six in the last five minutes of the game. A lot of the fans remembered the Knighthawks game last week and thought “here we go again”. I’m really not sure if the Rock were actually able to stop the bleeding or if Minnesota simply ran out of time, but the last half of the 4th quarter was all Swarm and from a Rock fan point of view, it was not pretty.

Yes, the Rock won the game, and I’m not going to argue that they didn’t deserve to win. But they didn’t dominate a team that was 1-6 and they almost blew it in the last quarter. If they play like that against the Rush and Roughnecks next weekend, we’ll have the makings of an 0-2 weekend.

Other game notes:

The first two goals of the game were fairly similar. Logan Schuss takes a shot which Rose stopped, but Brock Sorensen grabbed the rebound and deposited it over Rose who had no chance. A minute and a half later, Josh Sanderon takes a nice pass from Garrett Billings and shoots, Zach Higgins makes an excellent save, but it left him lying down to one side of the net. Stephen Leblanc grabbed the rebound and scored. Just watched the replay on the YouTube feed, and Stephen Stamp said the same thing. You know, great minds and all that.
Scott Johnston was in a fight in the 1st quarter, and it looked to me like he spent most of the rest of the first half trying to get in another one. I even predicted on Twitter that he’d finish the game in the dressing room – but it was Billy Hostrawser who did that after getting into his second fight of the game.
There are games that are “chippy” and then games that get out of hand, with fights all over the place and such. This game was right in between those – not one of those that bordered on the ridiculous, but “chippy” isn’t quite enough.
Andrew Suitor took an instigator penalty in the first quarter, which comes with a game misconduct. How is this a captain-like move? I like Suitor and he’s obviously a great player, but considering their 4th quarter comeback that they weren’t quite able to finish, I doubt the fight he started in the first was really worth his removal from the lineup.

Update: I went back and re-watched the video of the 3rd quarter of this game, and I felt I had to update this article since the Rock really did play well in the third. The defense was strong, Ethan O’Connor’s goal was very nice, Rob Hellyer scored a nice one as well, and Kasey Beirnes was all over the place in the offensive zone. Nick Rose made some great saves though as I’ve said before, he’s more the type to get in the way and make the stop than to make the acrobatic plays that Matt Vinc makes so you may not notice them quite as much. Anyway, I wanted to say that the general theme of the original article (the Rock won despite playing badly and Rose wasn’t great) is not completely true.

I couldn’t bring myself to watch the 4th quarter though.

Week 9 picks

Posted on February 21, 2014 by Graeme

Another 4-1 week! Third in a row, and fourth week in a row with only one incorrect pick. I should be bragging about my prediction prowess, but I’m too shocked given my sub-.500 records in the last 2 years.

Record: 25-11 (.694)

Game	Comments	Pick
MIN @ TOR	The Rock had their asses handed to them last weekend, and they’ll also be looking for payback against the Swarm, who knocked them out of the playoffs last season. The Rock have been dominant at home except for last week, while the Swarm haven’t been dominant anywhere.
ROC @ CAL	Rochester obviously has a strong defense and goaltending, but one of their criticisms this season has been their offense. Only one team (Minnesota) has scored fewer goals. But after scoring 17 last weekend, they got that monkey off their backs. The Roughnecks have lots of offensive threats as well, but I think the Rochester defense has a better shot of shutting them down than the Calgary defense has with the Knighthawks.
MIN @ PHI	I hate to predict an 0-2 weekend for a 1-6 team, but there it is. The Wings are the only team the Swarm have beaten so far this season and they’re also on a three-game losing streak. But at this point I have more confidence that the Wings can turn it around than the Swarm.

Week 8 picks

Posted on February 14, 2014 by Graeme

OK, this is really getting weird. Another 4-1 week, and I’ve now got more than twice as many correct picks as incorrect ones. I’m tied with Brian Shanahan and two games ahead of anyone else on the IL Indoor team. I’m totally not used to this, and I’m assuming I’ve got some 0-fer weeks coming up. The really weird thing is that if I missed every pick in the next three weeks, I’d still be at .500. But I’ll try not to let it go to my head.

Read on for this week’s winners. Guaranteed, or your money back. Unfortunately, I didn’t get this article out early enough to put in my regular analysis, but I did give some when I gave my picks on this week’s Addicted to Lacrosse show.

Record: 21-10 (.677)

Game	Comments	Pick
VAN @ COL	Rhys Duch and Kyle Sorensen are back, which will give the Stealth a boost. Will it be enough to get past Grant/Westervelt/Powell without Adam Jones? I must have thought so on Monday when I did my picks though I have to say I’m less than 100% sure of this now. But I’m not sure I actually want to change it either.
EDM @ MIN	Can anyone beat Edmonton? Yes, at some point this season someone will. But at this point, it ain’t gonna be Minnesota.
ROC @ TOR	Probably a homer pick. Tyler mentioned a good point in the show – that it’s hard to pick Rose over Vinc. But the Rock have been scoring way more than the Knighthawks, so I’m going with the home team.
PHI @ BUF	Philly has already beat the Bandits, but Buffalo is playing far better now.
VAN @ CAL	Given how they’ve been playing, it’s hard to pick Vancouver to win once, let alone twice in the same weekend.

Week 7 picks… and more!

Posted on February 7, 2014 by Graeme

Another good week – 4-1! I’ve only had one week under .500, and that was 1-2 in week 1. In four of the other five weeks, I’ve only gotten one wrong. WTF? This is certainly different from the last two years where I finished under .500.

This is a two-in-one article, since you get my picks and as an added FREE bonus, some thoughts on the Rock roster moves this week.

Record: 17-9 (.654)

Game	Comments	Pick
PHI @ TOR	Toronto is undefeated at home, but the Wings are on a 2-game win streak and are 2-1 on the road. Should be a good game, and I’m predicting the Rock’s home winning streak to continue.
EDM @ PHI	I think I said this last week. Until the Rush does something to convince me that they’re not the best team in the league, I’m probably just going to keep picking them.
BUF @ ROC	Similar to the Rush, the Bandits are playing great right now and I’ll probably keep picking them too, until they play Edmonton. Then I have no idea.
CAL @ MIN	Calgary’s not having their greatest season ever, but it’s better than the Swarm’s so far. Logan Schuss is playing well but thus far isn’t the offensive star he was projected to be, and the production from Matisz and Jackson is way down.
COL @ VAN	The Stealth are on a 4-game losing streak and confidence has to be pretty low – and they’ll be without Rhys Duch who’s serving a suspension. They’ve already beaten the Mammoth this season, but that was with Duch and the Mammoth were without Casey Powell.

I never managed to write an entire article on my thought about the Rock moves this week, acquiring Billy Hostrawser from the Stealth and releasing Stephen Hoar, so I’ll just put a couple of thoughts here. First off, I have no problem with acquiring Hostrawser for draft picks – unless they’re in the first round, draft picks are always a crapshoot anyway so giving them up for an actual warm body who can play now is fine. And he’s a young defender who can fight – just ask Mike Lum-Walker, his new teammate and sparring partner in last week’s Rock/Stealth game. He’s even scored a goal and has a few assists.

I am a little puzzled by Hoar’s release, though. In a number of interviews, both Terry Sanderson and John Lovell have mentioned that they are looking forward to the return of Patrick Merrill and Chris White (and Bill Greer, while he was out) because they bring some veteran leadership to the defense. They said that the young players (Lum-Walker, O’Connor, Dunn, England) are doing fine but more veterans on the back end would not only help the team but would help the kids to learn as well. And then they release Hoar, who is a veteran defender, and replace him with a guy with all of 15 games of NLL experience.

Hoar is also their only face-off guy who’s not injured. So I hope Patrick Merrill is back tonight, since 13 Rock face-offs this year have not been taken by Hoar, and they’ve only won 5 of them. Hostrawser has never taken one in the NLL, so no help there. That said, it’s not like Hoar is Geoff Snider either. He has a sub-.500 career faceoff percentage and was only at 35.7% this season. The Rock have never had a really strong face-off guy, since Merrill is under .500 over his career as well.

Week 6 picks

Posted on January 31, 2014 by Graeme

A quiet week in the NLL last week, with only 3 games. I went 2-1 thanks to the Rush coming back against the Stealth and the Bandits holding on against the Knighthawks. And if John Grant had been an inch or two off in his no-look behind-the-back shot in OT, I might have gone 3-0.

Just like I say every week, some tough games to pick this week. Parity’s a bitch, ain’t it?

Record: 13-8 (.619)

Game	Comments	Pick
VAN @ TOR	Not sure about this one. The Stealth have played well but not really well, seeing as they’re 2-3. The Rock have played well but not really well, other than their first game against Calgary. Going with the return of Billy Greer to help the home fans give the Rock a boost.
TOR @ BUF	What a difference a coach makes. Oh, and Ryan Benesch and Rory Smith too. Last year I only picked the Bandits to win 4 times all season. This is the fifth time this year I’ve picked the Bandits to win. Cosmo is playing really well, the offense is clicking, and I think every game for the rest of the season will be played for Tucker Williams. The Bandits have always been a tough team to beat, not only on the scoresheet but physically too – and now you can add emotionally to that list. #BraverThanBrave
VAN @ PHI	Philly has impressed me this year. They’re playing a lot better than I expected, especially without Rabil and Crotty and Seibald and Miller. But the Stealth didn’t fly all the way to Philadelphia to lose and if they lose to Toronto on Friday night, they’ll be even hungrier. Richards steals this one for the Stealth.
MIN @ COL	Two struggling teams face off. The Mammoth has played seven games, and in only two of them have they not switched goalies. Both times it’s been Dillon Ward, so I’m gonna guess that he gets the start. The return of Drew Westervelt and the season debut of Casey Powell will help the offense in a big way. The fact that the Swarm are averaging less than 7½ goals per game makes this pick a little easier too.
ROC @ EDM	The undefeated Rush battle the almost-undefeated Knighthawks. This will be a battle of the two best defenses in the league and two of the top goalies. Not surprisingly, these two teams are tops in goals against per game – Rochester at 8.5 and Edmonton at 8.0. They’re the only teams under 10. I’m taking the Rush and if the over/under on total goals scored was 17, I’d be tempted to take the under.