Here’s part II of my pre-season preview; part I was here. For each team (alphabetically from Ottawa through Vancouver), I’ll share where I think they will end up, and who might have a breakout year.
As I did last year, I’m not going to make specific standings predictions. I’ll break things up into groups: Top 4, Middle 4 (i.e. #5-8), and Miss Playoffs (#9-14).
Here’s a quick look at each team, where I think each team will end up, and who might have a breakout year. I’ll go alphabetically and cover Buffalo through Oshawa in this article, and then Ottawa through Vancouver in Part II.
As I did last year, I’m not going to make specific standings predictions. I’ll break things up into groups: Top 4, Middle 4 (i.e. #5-8), and Miss Playoffs (#9-14).
Here’s part II of my pre-season preview; part I was here. For each team (alphabetically from Ottawa through Vancouver), I’ll share where I think they will end up, and who might have a breakout year.
For where teams will end up, I’m not going to make specific predictions here. I’ll break things up into groups: Top 4, Middle 4 (i.e. #5-8), and Miss Playoffs (#9-14).
As I do most seasons (missed last year), here’s a quick look at each team, where I think each team will end up, and who might have a breakout year. I’ll go alphabetically and cover Albany through Las Vegas in this article, and then Ottawa through Vancouver in Part II.
For where teams will end up, I’m not going to make specific predictions here. I’ll break things up into groups: Top 4, Middle 4 (i.e. #5-8), and Miss Playoffs (#9-14).
I spent most of the last 3 weeks on vacation in Italy, and it was fabulous. Of course, you’re not here for details on my trip so let’s get into what I missed: a couple of rounds of playoff action, as well as the announcement of the annual NLL awards nominees. The winners of those awards have been announced this week as well, so I’ll touch on those and how I screwed up my vote on one of them.
I’ve seen none of the playoff games so far, since they all took place starting at 1am Central European Time at the earliest. So other than a few video highlights here and there, all of my comments below are based solely on the game summaries and various comments on the games that I read on twitter. I’m going full boxscore cowboy this week.
Yesterday I started with the East division, today we’ll cover the West. Where I think each team will end up in the standings and who might have a breakout year.
Calgary RoughnecksObviously Curtis Dickson is the biggest loss for the Roughnecks. They have brought in Brett Hickey who’s had a couple of 40+ goal seasons, but both of them were 5+ years ago. He didn’t have great success in Philadelphia and wasn’t a great fit in San Diego, but with the right chemistry he could rebound and be a solid #2 for the Roughnecks behind Jesse King. The addition of Jeff Cornwall solidifies the Calgary defense, which struggled in the first half of last season but had a much better second half.
I’ve heard a number of people talking about Haiden Dickson as a breakout player for the Roughnecks this year and I can’t disagree. He had moments last season where I wondered if this might be the year we started referring to Curtis as “the other Dickson” on the Roughnecks instead of Haiden. Obviously with Curtis gone that won’t matter, but Haiden is a very exciting young player.
Fifth in the west.
Colorado MammothA few offensive guys are out to start the season: Ryan Lee and Chris Wardle are both injured and Tyson Gibson is on the holdout list. But the Mammoth won the Championship last year with Lee missing most of the playoffs and Eli McLaughlin out for games 2 and 3 of the finals, so being down a couple of offensive guys is NBD, right? Yet another loss to retirement (see Georgia for the rest) is 13-year veteran defender Scott Carnegie. But assuming the injured players return soon, this is basically the same Mammoth team from last year, which is good news for Colorado fans.
Rookie Brett McIntyre had no points in two games in the 2022 regular season but had 7 goals and 9 assists in 6 playoff games. Clearly his scoreless streak in the regular season will end but will he continue his almost-3-points-per-game pace?
Second in the west.
Las Vegas Desert DogsIt’s hard to look at just a roster and get a good feel for how good an expansion team is going to be. Will they be the next San Diego Seals (10-8, made the playoffs) or the next Ottawa Rebel (1-13, didn’t)? It’s hard to tell, but that said, look at the players on this team: Rob Hellyer, Reid Reinholdt, Jacob Ruest, Charlie Bertrand, Zack Greer, Marshal King up front. John Wagner, Tyson Roe, Garrett McIntosh, Travis Cornwall, Brandon Clelland on the D. Their biggest question is goaltending. Joel Watson split time with Rylan Hartley in Rochester last year and had a respectable 11.61 GAA and a 77.5% save percentage for a 4-14 team. Is he ready to be the sole starting goalie on an NLL team? His backup, Landon Kells, has ten minutes of playing time in his NLL career, but that’s to be expected when you’re backing up a horse like Christian del Bianco.
I don’t see 12+ wins in their inaugural season but this team will be much closer to the Seals than the Rebel.
Marshall King didn’t get a lot of playing time in Calgary, only seeing action in seven games over two seasons. If he can be an everyday player, he could do some damage.
Seventh in the west.
Panther City LCIt’s not often a team can lose Randy Staats and have it make no difference to their team. Of course, that’s because he was injured all of last season and never played a game for Panther City. But they did lose Travis Cornwall, Connor Sellars, and Jeremy Thompson, all of whom did play for PCLC last year, so their defense is down a few men. But they brought in defenders Tyler Burton, Brooker Muir, and Nate Wade, all of whom have some NLL experience (in Burton’s case, 11 years worth). Also joining Panther City are forwards Tony Malcom and Evan Messenger along with Jonathan Donville, 2021’s first-overall draft pick, who is already being talked about as a Rookie of the Year candidate. Just like so many other teams, goaltending may be a concern. Nick Damude had a very good year in his first season as a full-time starter, but his backup is Cam Wengreniuk who has no NLL experience. If Damude falters, the improved offense may not be enough.
It’s hard to predict a breakout year for Patrick Dodds since he’s already had one, with 84 points in 17 games last year. But adding Donville and Malcom to the offense, Dodds could see his assist total jump even more.
Sixth in the west.
San Diego SealsNo changes for San Diego. Nothing to see here.
Well, OK, there were a few. Adding Kevin Crowley and Curtis Dickson to the highest-scoring team in the West is obviously huge. They did lose Jeremy Noble and Zack Greer as well as Brett Hickey, and while Noble was their 4th highest scorer with 70 points, Greer and Hickey combined for about 50 points. So their offense is clearly improved, but what about everything else? Brandon Clelland and Tor Reinholdt are both in Vegas, so they lost two defenders and their chief face-off guy. But returning to the NLL after a five-year absence is Jesse Gamble, who was one of the fastest transition guys in the league in the mid-teens. Like, Joey Cupido fast. Gamble is 34 now, so is he still that fast? No idea, but just like I said about Callum Crawford, even if he’s lost half a step, that’s still pretty good.
It would be great for the Seals to get a full season out of Casey Jackson, which hasn’t happened since 2019 due to injuries. But with Dickson, Dobbie, Crowley, Austin Staats, Wes Berg, and Tre Leclaire, how often Jackson going to get the ball?
First in the west.
Saskatchewan RushThe Rush missed the playoffs for the first time since they moved to Saskatchewan, so there were some significant changes made. Adam Shute had pretty decent numbers last season but still went 4-6 and was replaced by Eric Penney, who had slightly better numbers and went 4-3. Shute was let go and the Rush picked up Alex Buque, who had an up-and-down year in Vancouver. Former Rush Marty Dinsdale was brought back from the Warriors, and everyone seems very excited about rookie Austin Madronic. But for years, the Rush’s strength has been defense and this season, they’ve lost Chris Corbeil, Jeff Cornwall, and Jordi Jones-Smith. The loss of Corbeil is obviously huge, but Cornwall and Jones-Smith were also significant pieces of the Rush D over the last couple of years. They still have Kyle Rubisch, Ryan Dilks, and Mike Messenger, three of the best in the game, but they’ll have to break in a few rookies and get them used to their system.
Austin Madronic, whose name I heard a number of times in the Rush’s pre-season game against Toronto a couple of weeks ago. Plus I just like saying “Madronic”. It’s a cool name.
Third in the west.
Vancouver WarriorsThe Warriors made probably the biggest changes in the offseason. First off, they brought in new head coach Troy Cordingley, who has done nothing but win in the NLL. Two Championships with the Bandits as a player, one with the Roughnecks as a coach, and one with the Rock as a coach. He’s demanding and will get the best out of his players or die trying. Second, they brought in Shawn Evans, who had a sub-par year with the Knighthawks and Thunderbirds last year, but played very well during the Mann Cup in September and brings with him a work ethic like nobody else. And third, Mitch Jones is returning from the injury that kept him out of the lineup most of last season. Those three things mean the Warriors will be better this year than last.
On the down side, they lost a number of defenders: Derek Lloyd, Ryan Martel, Garrett McIntosh, and Taylor Stuart. They brought in Anthony Kalinich from Calgary but the rest of the additions are rookies. Tyrell Hamer-Jackson was lost to injury partway through last season and is still on the IR. If they can get him back, that will be a big boost.
Adam Charalambides had a very good rookie season (47 points), but I think with the improvements in the Warriors offense, he could take a step up into the 60’s or even 70’s.
Fourth in the west.
Division predictions: where I think each team will end up in the standings and who might have a breakout year.
Albany FirewolvesIt’s hard to get really fired up about a team that lost all of their TOP FIVE scorers from last season and didn’t replace them with even one star player. Those top five scored a total of 330 points last season, which is 70% of the team’s total. Kieran McArdle, Connor Kelly, and Haina Thompson will certainly help, but none of the rest of the new additions has more than about 10 NLL games to their name. That’s not to say they’re going to be terrible – only two teams gave up fewer goals than the Firewolves last year, and they still have a solid defensive core, a top-flight goaltender in Doug Jamieson, and Charlie Kitchen will see lots more playing time and could make some big strides. But somebody’s gotta score goals and without a monster year from somebody or an above-average year for several, it could be the dreaded “rebuilding year” for Albany.
Connor Kelly hasn’t played an NLL game in almost three years (March 2020 with the Riptide) but if he can shake off the rust quickly, he could have a very good year.
Eighth in the east.
Buffalo BanditsThe Bandits have been to two of the past three Championships but are still hungry for their first Championship since 2008. They lost Connor Fields and Chase Fraser is out to start the year, but much of the powerhouse Buffalo offense is returning. I said above that only two teams allowed fewer goals than Albany; well, Buffalo was one of them. With that defense (minus veteran Kevin Brownell) in front of reigning/perpetual Goalie of the Year Matt Vinc, and the aforementioned offense, there’s no reason to believe the Bandits can’t contend again this year. The question will be whether they will be good enough to hold off the surging Rock in the East.
Tehoka Nanticoke had a very good rookie season, with flashes of “oh my goodness” here and there. With that year of experience, I think Nanticoke takes his game to the next level in 2023. Maybe not a hundred-point type level, but I can see a 20-30 point jump.
Second in the east.
Georgia SwarmThe Swarm have lost Stephan Leblanc, Joel White, Jordan Hall, and Mike Poulin to retirement, Miles Thompson to injury, and Chad Tutton to free agency. That’s a lot of big names on offense, transition, defence, and of course their starting goaltender. Jeremy Thompson will help out the D and transition, and also gives the Swarm a pretty solid faceoff tandem along with Jordan MacIntosh. On offense, they brought in Andrew Kew from Albany and 2021 second-overall draft pick Ryan Lanchbury will make his NLL debut this year. If those two can gel with former MVPs Lyle Thompson and Shayne Jackson, the Swarm offense could be very good – maybe not Bandits or Seals good, but certainly sufficient to give the team a chance in any game. The biggest question is goaltending – Craig Wende is 31 but has only played 391 minutes in his entire NLL career. Is he up to the challenge of being a full-time starter and playing 800+ minutes in one season? If not, the Swarm better hope that last year’s trend of excellent rookie goaltenders continues since Brett Dobson has played zero minutes in his NLL career.
Bryan Cole used to be one of those guys whose name you didn’t hear much. But you started hearing it more often last season as people realized what he does for the Swarm, which is just about everything. You might start hearing that name a lot more often this season.
Sixth in the east.
Halifax ThunderbirdsHow does a team lose Shawn Evans, Stephen Keogh, and Rhys Duch in one offseason and still end up better? Well, that’s a bit misleading since they only had Duch for a game and a half and Evans for six games (and was a healthy scratch in a few more). Still, their offense now consists of Ryan Benesch, Cody Jamieson, Randy Staats, Clarke Petterson, Chris Boushy, Eric Fannell, and Austin Shanks. Not too shabby. Ryan Terefenko was an All-Star in the PLL last summer, and along with Tyson Bell gives the Thunderbirds a guys like Jake Withers and Graeme Hossack are among the best defenders in the league. Aaron Bold is not returning to the Thunderbirds so the net is Warren Hill’s once again. Hill has been streaky over his career – he’s had periods of looking unstoppable (eg. most of 2020) but other periods of looking pretty ordinary, so Halifax’s success depends on which Hill they see more of.
Terefenko played very well in the PLL and there’s no reason to believe he won’t bring that success to the indoor game as well.
Third in the east.
New York RiptideA lot of people are talking about the Riptide making a big splash this year, and I see no reason to disagree. They haven’t made a ton of changes, really, adding Reilly O’Connor up front and Kevin Brownell and Jordi Jones-Smith on the D while losing Kieran McArdle. New York’s offense was lights out last year, scoring more goals than anyone but the Bandits. Callum Crawford is 38 and so he may have lost half a step from previous seasons, but half a step down from Crawford’s previous seasons is still better than most. I think it’s safe to say that Jeff Teat’s career has not peaked and after watching him play last year, the thought of him getting better is exciting. Connor Kearnan, Jake Fox, and Larson Sundown are all returning, and Tyler Digby is on the holdout list but assuming he returns, the Riptide offense is just as potent as last year. On the back end, Brent Noseworthy and Dan MacRae start the year on the IR but New York has a strong-looking defense even without those two, especially with the addition of Brownell and Jones-Smith. Steven Orleman didn’t have a great start to his debut season as a starter, only winning one of his first seven decisions. But he went 4-4 over his last eight and lowered his GAA from 13.14 over his first nine games to 11.20 over his last nine.
I really enjoyed watching Larson Sundown last season. I don’t know if he’ll put up 80 points or anything, but we’ll hear his name a few more times in 2023.
Fourth in the east.
Philadelphia WingsThey lost Kevin Crowley, Corey Small, and Brett Hickey (and Kyle Jackson, though he’s on the “protected” list, whatever that means), but picked up Joe Resetarits. That’s still a net negative from last season, and even with Crowley, Small, Hickey, and Jackson along with Matt Rambo, Ben McIntosh, and Blaze Riorden on the offense, the Wings were second last in the league in scoring last year. A bit of an offensive shakeup might have been needed here. The addition of veteran defender Chad Tutton is one of the more understated free agent signings of the off-season.
I think Ben McIntosh will take more of a leadership role on the Wings offense. He won’t outscore Resetarits, but he’ll jump back up to the 70-80 point range where he was in Saskatchewan.
Fifth in the east.
Rochester KnighthawksThe Knighthawks finished last or near the bottom of the league last year in most categories, so it stands to reason that they’ve made a lot of changes. Connor Fields and Austin Hasen join the offense; Fields got some time during a couple of seasons in San Diego and then had a breakout season in Buffalo last year. Hasen is a rookie but won the Mann Cup with the Lakers over the summer, and looked quite comfortable playing with a pile of NLL stars so expect him to fit right in. Riley Hutchcraft will fight Rylan Hartley for the starting goalie spot (and we know Hartley can fight). One concern with the Knighthawks is the number of injuries: Cory Highfield, Ryland Rees, Jeff Wittig, Tyler Biles, and Thomas Whitty all played significant time with Rochester last year but begin the year on the IR or PUP.
Austin Hasen will mesh well with fellow Lakers Holden Cattoni, Thomas Hoggarth, and Turner Evans (not to mention Paul Dawson, Jordan Stouros, Thomas Whitty, Mitch Ogilvie, Matt Gilray, and coach and Austin’s dad Mike Hasen).
Seventh in the east.
Toronto RockThe Rock know that they were maybe half a second away from sending their last game of 2022 to overtime, and potentially going to the Championship game. They are in win-now mode and had to get better during the off-season, which is exactly what they did. Their off-season haul is one of the best of any team. Corey Small may not return to the 111 points he had in 2017 but 30 goals and 70 points is not unlikely. Stephen Keogh will fill a Kasey Beirnes type of role but with more grit – he does the “dirty work”, sets hard picks, and generally gets crushed inside so his teammates on the outside get better looks. And like Beirnes, he won’t put up the big numbers that others might but he’ll be instrumental to the Rock offense. And it’s not like he doesn’t score at all – he scores some pretty beautiful goals.
On the back-end, the Rock allowed by far the fewest goals of any team last year – only two teams were within twenty of the Rock’s total. In fact, since the league moved to an 18-game season in 2014, only one team (the 2014 Edmonton Rush) has allowed fewer than the Rock’s 166 last year. They had Defender of the Year Mitch de Snoo, Brad Kri, and Latrell Harris, all three of which showed up in the top 10 of IL Indoor’s list of the league’s best defenders. Now you add Chris Corbeil (also in the top ten) to that incredible defense? I imagine Nick Rose cannot wait to get this season started to be able to watch those guys in front of him. Unfortunately, Corbeil was injured during the off season and had shoulder surgery in October so he won’t be ready to start the season.
Challen Rogers will be playing on the offense this season, so watch for his scoring numbers to skyrocket. But I’m going to say Zach Manns has a breakout year, taking over many of the touches that Reid Reinholdt had last year.
First in the east.
At the end of every season, I look back at the choices I made at the beginning of the season for the NLL awards. It’s interesting to see what players had the great seasons I expected, which came out of nowhere, and which weren’t as successful as anticipated. I usually do this during the playoffs but since this season ended quite abruptly in mid-March, the playoffs we’d currently be in the middle of never happened. I’m not a big fan of unfinished business, so let’s take a look at my awards, standings, and “Look out for…” predictions from last fall and see how well I did, or how badly. It wasn’t great, honestly. Hell, I predicted that each team would play 18 games and didn’t even get that right.
Here are the links to the predictions articles: standings & awards, and East, West, and North previews.
In the north, I picked Toronto, Buffalo, Halifax, and Rochester. Rochester finishing fourth was all I got right. Buffalo and Toronto ended up tied for second but I believe the first tie-breaker would be divisional record, so the Rock’s 4-2 beats the Bandits 3-3.
In the East, I had Georgia, New England, Philly, and New York so I had the 3rd and 4th place teams right. In the West, I went with Calgary, Saskatchewan, San Diego, Colorado, and Vancouver. I did not see Calgary dropping to 5-5 and fourth place, but I did get San Diego at third and Vancouver at 5th correct.
In the overall picks, I only got two right: the Mammoth at 8th and the Riptide at 13th.
IL Indoor will be posting their end-of-season awards articles soon, and I was involved in the voting there. Here I’ll list my top 5 picks for each award but I won’t repeat the comments I wrote for those articles. Comments here are more about my original pick. In more cases than not, the guy I picked to win the award didn’t even finish in my top five.
Original pick: Mark Matthews
Incredibly, Mark Matthews was not on pace to finish the season with 100 points, breaking a five-year streak.
Original pick: Christian Del Bianco
My predictions article listed my top goalie pick (Del Bianco), three more on the short list (Ward, Poulin, Vinc), and one dark horse (Scigliano). None of those five made this list.
Original pick: Kyle Rubisch
I waffled back and forth between Rubisch and Hossack for the prediction. Went the wrong way.
Original pick: Zach Currier
Hossack is the new Chris Corbeil. Is he a transition guy who’s especially good at defense, or a defender who’s especially good at transition? Yes.
Original pick: Andrew Kew
Fields and Gibson had almost identical stats, though Kew’s points per game was a little higher than both.
Original pick: Ed Comeau
If Glenn Clark had released a video of himself dancing with his kids, then maybe…
Original pick: Patrick Merrill
See the IL Indoor article for my comments about Styres, but props must go to Jamie Dawick. Picking up Dan Dawson was a no-brainer (i.e. if you have the chance to get Dawson, you get Dawson), and getting David Brock to replace Brock Sorensen and Creighton Reid was a good move too. The rookies that got lots of playing time this year (Manns, Jubenville, Dominey) all had very good seasons, but the kicker was that they lost Tom Schreiber for six games, only had Adam Jones for one, and were without Dan Dawson for a game as well – and yet still had the depth to tie Buffalo for second in the North division with an 7-4 record.
These were players I predicted would have a big year. I’m only counting wins here for players who had a better-than-average year for them, so if I count a pick as a loss here, it’s not because they had a bad season, just not a excellent one.
I was under .500 here with 5 wins and 8 losses.
Buffalo: Josh Byrne – Win. Byrne was on pace for a 90-point season and led a team containing Dhane Smith in scoring. Sure, Smith played three fewer games but still.
Halifax: Warren Hill – Win. A GAA under 10 and save percentage above 80% would usually mean you’re a lock for Goaltender of the Year. But 2020 ain’t like normal years. Warren Hill has both of those criteria but is sixth in the league (among starters) in both. His 8-1 record leads the NLL though.
Rochester: Curtis Knight – Win. Knight was on pace for 69 points, his highest total in six years.
Toronto: Damon Edwards – gonna give myself a loss here. On pace for 11 points – he has four career seasons above 11 and four below 11, so it’d be average. Of course, points aren’t everything particularly for defenders, but I still wouldn’t call it an excellent season for Damon.
Georgia: Zed Williams – have to say no here too. Williams was on pace for 45 points, exactly what he had last year. Again, not a bad season by any stretch, but it wasn’t a breakout year.
New England: Jordan Durston – Nope. I said Durson could get back into the 60-70 point range like 2018 with Buffalo. Durston was on pace for 32 points, the lowest of his career and less than half of 2018 total.
New York: Tyler Digby – loss here as well. On pace for 69 points, slightly less than what he had last year. Odd stat: Digby scored either two goals or no goals in every game in 2020. He scored exactly two goals in nine games, and none in the other three.
Philadelphia: Brett Hickey – Definite win, though this wasn’t surprising. Hickey was on pace for 40 goals, quite a few more than the four he had in last year’s injury-shortened season.
Calgary: Jesse King – Loss. On pace for a good season but only played four games before he got injured again.
Colorado Mammoth: Kyle Killen – Another loss. On pace for 40 points, which isn’t bad, but he had 49 last year. Like King, he missed time due to injury.
San Diego: Wes Berg – Win. On pace for 87 points, a career high and led the Seals in scoring.
Saskatchewan: Marty Dinsdale – Nope. On pace for 26 points, a 20+ point drop from each of the last two years.
Vancouver: Riley Loewen – Loss. Another solid season from Loewen but he was on pace for 42 points, slightly below his 46 from the previous two.
I’ve done the North and East, so today we’ll preview the West division.
Calgary RoughnecksConsidering they’re the reigning NLL champs, it’s not surprising that the Roughnecks didn’t make many roster changes. Captain Dan MacRae was taken in the expansion draft by New York, Riley Loewen signed with the Warriors, and Reece Callies and Rhys Duch are both injured. That’s it. In their place are Marshal King (Jesse’s brother), Haiden Dickson (no relation to Curtis), Liam LeClair (brother of former Roughneck Kellen LeClair), and Ryan Martel (not related to anyone in the NLL so far as I know). Martel played 15 games over the last two seasons for Calgary but is still only 21, and the other three are rookies.
When you win it all one year and change very little, you’re generally among the favourites the next year. To be the best, you have to beat the best, right? No reason to believe the Roughnecks won’t be in the hunt again this season.
It would surprise precisely nobody if Jesse King had a monster year so I’ll go out on a limb and say… Jesse King.
First in the west.
Colorado MammothColorado lost a few big names in the offseason – Cory Vitarelli, Jeremy Noble, Brad Self, and Ian Llord are all gone. Noble had a terrible season, and the other three played six games each with the Mammoth, so the losses aren’t really that devastating. But other than Tyler Carlson, brought in to replace backup goalie Steve Fryer, all the new guys are really new guys – NLL newbs.
The defense and transition is much the same, which is good news since only the Bandits gave up fewer goals than the Mammoth last year. Dillon Ward is back though as I said, Tyler Carlson will be backing him up instead of Steve Fryer. Ward will still take the majority of starts but Carlson is a veteran backup so the Mammoth aren’t in trouble if Ward falters. Offense was the Mammoth’s weak point last year – only one team gave up fewer goals, but only one team (the Warriors) scored fewer as well. With all the turnover in the offense, I hope the rookies play well or this could be a long season.
That Killen kid impressed a lot of people last year, with 49 points in 15 games. With Noble, Keogh, and Adams all gone, Killen will be asked to take on a bigger role on the right side this season. He could be really good.
Fourth in the west.
San Diego SealsLots of turnover in the Seals camp as well. Gone are Dan Dawson, Turner Evans, Garrett Billings, Joe Walters, Paul Dawson, Kyle Hartzell, Tyler Carlson, and Adrian Sorichetti. Austin Staats and Casey Jackson begin the season on the IR. Sounds terrible, right? It may not be so bad. Joining the Seals are Wes Berg, Jeremy Noble, Zack Greer, Mike Carnegie, and Evan Messenger, so all is not lost in SoCal. They still have Kyle Buchanan, Connor Kearnan, and Connor Fields and while Fields only played in two games last year due to injuries, he finished fourth in points and second in goals in the PLL over the summer. Could he be the next field-star-becomes-box-star à la Tom Schreiber? That may be optimistic but I think we can count on him for a lot more than the five points he contributed last year. Assuming Greer can shake off the rust after his year of retirement and Noble turns back into the real Jeremy Noble and not the guy who couldn’t score last year, the Seals may still have a pretty good offense, made even better when Jackson and Staats return.
Frank Scigliano holds down the fort in net again, though his backup is Nick Damude, who has no NLL experience. The defense and transition corps consists of a pretty good mix of vets and rookies but one of the vets is lacrosse legend Brodie Merrill, and if you’re a rookie defender, there aren’t many guys you want to learn from more than Brodie.
Last year, I said that if everything works out for the Seals, they could be a very good team. Well, everything worked out and they were a very good team. I’m not sure this year’s Seals are better than last year’s but if everything works out, they won’t be far off.
Wes Berg will be itching to prove that he is worth the money Calgary didn’t want to pay him, so I see a big year for him.
Third in the west.
Saskatchewan RushGood news for the Rush: Ryan Dilks and Jeff Cornwall are back! (Well, Cornwall isn’t quite but will be soon.) Bad news: they lost Nik Bilic, Brett Mydske, and Curtis Knight. Good news: they’re such a deep team that they’ll still be great. Bad news: So will Calgary.
Losing Curtis Knight will hurt the Rush, both more than you might think – because he was an important piece of their offense – and less then you might think – because they’re so deep. 2018 5th overall draft pick Connor Robinson will see more playing time, and guys like Ryan Keenan and Marty Dinsdale will get some more minutes to make up for the loss of Knight.
The Rush defense has been their strong point for years and while losing Mydske will hurt, getting Dilks back will make up for that. Jeff Cornwall will likely score more than Bilic would have but Bilic was a fan favourite known for his grit and toughness (and, yes, fights) more than his goal-scoring.
Marty Dinsdale has been one of those “under the radar” sort of guys for years, but the weird thing is how everyone talks about the fact that nobody talks about him. Dinsdale will take over some of Curtis Knight’s role and we might see his point totals increase.
Second in the west.
Vancouver WarriorsNo blockbuster trades for the Warriors this off-season, but they did make a couple of significant moves. Signing Nik Bilic is huge. He brings “sandpaper” (as Teddy Jenner put it) to the team, and he’s a veteran who’s won Championships, and you can never have too many of those. And the Warriors don’t have many of those. Another vet defender who wasn’t there last year is Chris O’Dougherty, another guy who brings grit and toughness to the Vancouver back end.
The front end isn’t hugely different, with Riley Loewen taking over for Tony Malcom. Keegan Bal stepped up his game big-time last season, so he’ll be expected to continue his strong play, and Mitch Jones is also coming off of his best season. Other than those two and Malcom, only Logan Schuss and Jordan McBride had more than twenty points last year. The Warriors scored the fewest goals of any team in 2019, so some more scoring up front and in transition wouldn’t be unwelcome.
Eric Penney and Aaron Bold split time between the pipes last year, and both are back again this year. Will Penney finally take his spot as the #1 starter, a position the Warriors (and Stealth before them) seem to have been saving for him for years, or will he continue to fight Bold for that spot? The team is probably fine either way – competition between the two isn’t a bad thing, but if Penney plays well enough to grab that spot for himself, so much the better.
Similar to Curtis Knight stepping out from behind the Rush’s top three, Riley Loewen is expected to be one of the top scorers instead of playing behind them.
Fifth in the west.
Yesterday I started with the North division, today we’ll cover the East. Where I think they will end up in the standings and who might have a breakout year.
Georgia SwarmTake a team that finished second in the division last year, add Joel White and Jordan Hall, and give their goalie a ton of confidence with a Mann Cup, Mann Cup MVP award, and a WILC Championship over the summer and what do you get? The top team in the east, that’s what. Lyle and Miles, Randy, and Shayne already made an impressive top-four, possibly the best in the league, and adding Hall and two former transition guys in Zed Williams and Bryan Cole rounds out an amazing offense. Their D is mostly the same as last year and transition has been improved as well with the addition of White and Kason Tarbell, who impressed at the WILC’s.
Zed Williams has flown under the radar for a while as a scoring threat but no longer.
First in the east.
New England Black WolvesNew England has added a few players to their offense that could make a significant difference. Andrew Kew was expected to be the #1 draft choice and while New York seems quite happy with Tyson Gibson, I think the Wolves are equally happy that Kew fell to third. Losing Tyler Digby’s size and strength will hurt but the additions of Jordan Durston and Tony Malcom will offset that. Durston, in particular, is good at digging out loose balls and creating space up the middle, and giving guys like Stephan Leblanc and Callum Crawford extra chances or more space is not good for opposing goalies. After an excellent 2018, Joe Resetarits picked up 34 extra points in 2018 over 2017, but dropped 33 in 2019. One of those two years was probably an anomaly, so perhaps a full season with the Black Wolves will tell us which.
Defense consists of three seasoned veterans in Manney, LaFontaine, and newcomer Creighton Reid along with a bunch of guys under 25. The goalies are young too – Doug Jamieson will be in his second season as a starter, but he’s only 24 and backup Ethan Woods is a rookie.
Jordan Durston won’t score 100 points, but he could climb back to the 60-70 point range that he hit in 2018 with the Bandits.
Second in the east.
New York RiptideLast season we talked about the Seals as “not looking like an expansion team”, and they finished above .500 and hosted a playoff game. The Rochester Knighthawks, in my opinion, may not have quite that level of success but they look pretty good too. The Riptide look a little more like your typical expansion team – some vets here and there but lots of unproven players with a year or two of experience and a bunch of rookies. That’s not to say they’re definitely going to suck. Guys like McArdle and Digby know how to find the back of the net, and Tyson Gibson was selected first overall for a reason.
Ranagan, MacRae, Suitor and Manley are all solid veteran D guys, but I have concerns about Alex Buque as the starting goalie. He had that job in both Buffalo and New England and lost it in both cases. He’s obviously a year older and more experienced now so maybe this is his shot – and maybe on a team with no expectations, he’ll get consistent starts and minutes which can only help.
Like I said, I’m not saying they will definitely be bad, but there are too many question marks for me.
Tyler Digby had a resurgence in New England last year. He has the most NLL experience of any forward and so is likely to become the de facto leader of the offense.
Fourth in the east.
Philadelphia WingsThe Wings have made a lot of changes this year. Both goalies are out, and guys like Dylan Evans, Jordan Hall, and Vaughn Harris are also gone. But the Wings will get Brett Hickey back after missing most of last year, and have also added Cory Vitarelli and Kevin Buchanan to their offense. Along with Kevin Crowley, Blaze Riorden, and Josh Currier, that’s a pretty decent offense. Matt Rambo was a Rookie of the Year candidate last year and then was the scoring leader, league MVP, and Championship game MVP over the summer in the PLL – if he can inject some of the intensity and raw skill he showed in the PLL into the Wings, look out.
The new faces on offense will allow Kiel Matisz to stick with transition, not that having him play offense was a problem.
All three goalies from last season are gone, replaced by Zach Higgins and the un-retired Brandon Miller. I expect Higgins to get most of the minutes with Miller as backup and part-time unofficial goalie coach. Higgins was a starter for the 2015 Swarm but has been a backup ever since. The defense in front of Higgins or Miller is quite young and inexperienced with the exception of Matisz and 13-year veteran Ian Llord. When Llord played his first NLL game, Wings rookie Alex Pace was eight years old.
Brett Hickey, I’m sure, has been itching to get back on the floor since he was injured in the third game last year. I expect him to put up some serious numbers this year.
Third in the east.
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