Week 13 picks

Posted on March 22, 2014 by Graeme

In case you think I forgot to post this article before this week’s games started, you’re absolutely wrong. I forgot to write this article before this week’s games started. Luckily I announced my picks, as I always do, on the Addicted to Lacrosse show on Monday, so there’s no question of my making my picks after one game is over (Edmonton beat Buffalo earlier tonight) and the other is half finished (Calgary is up 8-2 on Vancouver at the half as I type this).

I went 5-0 last weekend and I’m now 11-1 in the last three weeks. Actually 12-1 since the Rush have already won this weekend.

Record: 37-14 (.725)

Game	Comments	Pick
BUF @ EDM	I keep saying this. “If anyone can beat the Rush, it’s Rochester”. “If anyone can beat the Rush, it’s Calgary”. “If anyone can beat the Rush, it’s Buffalo”. Well, they’ve all tried and failed. Pretty soon it might be “If anyone can beat the Rush, it must be 2015.”
CAL @ VAN	This pick was somewhat of a no-brainer for me, though both Tyler and Melissa picked Vancouver. Perhaps I’ve lost all confidence in the Stealth or have too much confidence in the Roughnecks, but I spent very little time thinking about this one.
TOR @ PHI	This one I thought more about. The last two Rock games have featured great first halves and lousy second halves. But they’ve done a bit of a rebuild mid-way through the season, bringing in Brandon Miller, Kevin Ross, Jimmy Purves and out of retirement, Cam Woods. Meanwhile, the Wings have lost six straight.
BUF @ MIN	Top team in the east vs. bottom team in the league – another no-brainer. Could the Swarm pull off the upset? Sure, but I’m not betting on it.

Week 12 picks

Posted on March 14, 2014 by Graeme

I was 3-1 last week, only missing the Calgary-Colorado game. Some tough ones this week, and I picked a few based solely on my gut and not on anything I can explain.

Record: 32-14 (.696)

Game	Comments	Pick
EDM @ CAL	If anybody can beat the Rush, it’s Calgary. But I have to play the odds and go with Edmonton.
ROC @ TOR	Once again, I find it hard to pick against Matt Vinc, even when it’s the Rock facing him. Despite going 0-2 the other weekend, the Rock didn’t play all that bad other than the first quarter of the Calgary game. I imagine the week off will help get everyone healthy again, but I’m still going with the Hawks.
COL @ BUF	Colorado played really well against the Roughnecks last weekend, but I still think the Bandits are the best team in the East, and best in the league outside of Edmonton.
ROC @ PHI	Rochester had a little bit of trouble with the Wings last weekend, other than the fourth quarter when they pulled away. Don’t see it going any differently this week.
TOR @ MIN	Minnesota’s confidence is rising, even if they haven’t beaten anyone but the Wings. They played strong against the Bandits last week, but I’m still picking the Rock in this one.

Week 11 picks

Posted on March 7, 2014 by Graeme

The good news: 3-0 last week! The bad news: The Rock 0-2 weekend that I predicted came true. Was kinda hoping I’d be wrong on one of those.

All three members of the Addicted to Lacrosse team made the same picks for this weekend.

Record: 29-13 (.690)

Game	Comments	Pick
MIN @ BUF	Buffalo hasn’t played in a couple of weeks, but their confidence is still running high, though Minnesota’s is probably not bad either after beating the Wings and a close loss to Toronto. Still gotta go with the Bandits.
PHI @ ROC	Philly’s lost four in a row, and they’re facing Matt Vinc. I don’t see the upset here.
CAL @ COL	Calgary’s offense was clicking big-time last weekend, and against the Colorado defense (and three rookie coaches), they might just have another field day.
VAN @ EDM	As I said on the A2L show: Vancouver minus Sorensen against the Rush? No-brainer. (Of course I hate saying “no-brainer” with NLL picks since teams like to prove me wrong.)

Week 10 picks

Posted on February 28, 2014 by Graeme

My streak of no more than one incorrect pick per week ends at 4, and my streak of .500 or better weeks ends at 7. I was 1-2 last week as Calgary and Minnesota pulled off the comeback victories. If the games ended at halftime, I’d have been 3-3.

Record: 26-13 (.667)

Game	Comments	Pick
TOR @ EDM	I keep asking this question, but can anybody beat the Rush? Well sure, in this league anyone could. I doubt the Rush will finish the season 18-0, so somebody’s going to beat them. Could it be Toronto? Maybe, but I’m not betting on it. Looking forward to watching this game on TV though.
TOR @ CAL	If there’s one thing I hate doing, it’s picking against my favourite team. If there’s one thing I hate doing more than that, it’s picking my team to lose twice in one weekend. But if I’m going to be non-homer-ific, I have to admit that Toronto’s inconsistent play recently is not likely to get them by a surging Roughnecks team in Calgary.
ROC @ COL	Calgary was able to come back against Matt Vinc and the Knighthawks but I don’t see Colorado pulling it off. They have the firepower up front, but they don’t have the defense and goaltending is still up in the air.

Week 9 picks

Posted on February 21, 2014 by Graeme

Another 4-1 week! Third in a row, and fourth week in a row with only one incorrect pick. I should be bragging about my prediction prowess, but I’m too shocked given my sub-.500 records in the last 2 years.

Record: 25-11 (.694)

Game	Comments	Pick
MIN @ TOR	The Rock had their asses handed to them last weekend, and they’ll also be looking for payback against the Swarm, who knocked them out of the playoffs last season. The Rock have been dominant at home except for last week, while the Swarm haven’t been dominant anywhere.
ROC @ CAL	Rochester obviously has a strong defense and goaltending, but one of their criticisms this season has been their offense. Only one team (Minnesota) has scored fewer goals. But after scoring 17 last weekend, they got that monkey off their backs. The Roughnecks have lots of offensive threats as well, but I think the Rochester defense has a better shot of shutting them down than the Calgary defense has with the Knighthawks.
MIN @ PHI	I hate to predict an 0-2 weekend for a 1-6 team, but there it is. The Wings are the only team the Swarm have beaten so far this season and they’re also on a three-game losing streak. But at this point I have more confidence that the Wings can turn it around than the Swarm.

Week 8 picks

Posted on February 14, 2014 by Graeme

OK, this is really getting weird. Another 4-1 week, and I’ve now got more than twice as many correct picks as incorrect ones. I’m tied with Brian Shanahan and two games ahead of anyone else on the IL Indoor team. I’m totally not used to this, and I’m assuming I’ve got some 0-fer weeks coming up. The really weird thing is that if I missed every pick in the next three weeks, I’d still be at .500. But I’ll try not to let it go to my head.

Read on for this week’s winners. Guaranteed, or your money back. Unfortunately, I didn’t get this article out early enough to put in my regular analysis, but I did give some when I gave my picks on this week’s Addicted to Lacrosse show.

Record: 21-10 (.677)

Game	Comments	Pick
VAN @ COL	Rhys Duch and Kyle Sorensen are back, which will give the Stealth a boost. Will it be enough to get past Grant/Westervelt/Powell without Adam Jones? I must have thought so on Monday when I did my picks though I have to say I’m less than 100% sure of this now. But I’m not sure I actually want to change it either.
EDM @ MIN	Can anyone beat Edmonton? Yes, at some point this season someone will. But at this point, it ain’t gonna be Minnesota.
ROC @ TOR	Probably a homer pick. Tyler mentioned a good point in the show – that it’s hard to pick Rose over Vinc. But the Rock have been scoring way more than the Knighthawks, so I’m going with the home team.
PHI @ BUF	Philly has already beat the Bandits, but Buffalo is playing far better now.
VAN @ CAL	Given how they’ve been playing, it’s hard to pick Vancouver to win once, let alone twice in the same weekend.

Week 7 picks… and more!

Posted on February 7, 2014 by Graeme

Another good week – 4-1! I’ve only had one week under .500, and that was 1-2 in week 1. In four of the other five weeks, I’ve only gotten one wrong. WTF? This is certainly different from the last two years where I finished under .500.

This is a two-in-one article, since you get my picks and as an added FREE bonus, some thoughts on the Rock roster moves this week.

Record: 17-9 (.654)

Game	Comments	Pick
PHI @ TOR	Toronto is undefeated at home, but the Wings are on a 2-game win streak and are 2-1 on the road. Should be a good game, and I’m predicting the Rock’s home winning streak to continue.
EDM @ PHI	I think I said this last week. Until the Rush does something to convince me that they’re not the best team in the league, I’m probably just going to keep picking them.
BUF @ ROC	Similar to the Rush, the Bandits are playing great right now and I’ll probably keep picking them too, until they play Edmonton. Then I have no idea.
CAL @ MIN	Calgary’s not having their greatest season ever, but it’s better than the Swarm’s so far. Logan Schuss is playing well but thus far isn’t the offensive star he was projected to be, and the production from Matisz and Jackson is way down.
COL @ VAN	The Stealth are on a 4-game losing streak and confidence has to be pretty low – and they’ll be without Rhys Duch who’s serving a suspension. They’ve already beaten the Mammoth this season, but that was with Duch and the Mammoth were without Casey Powell.

I never managed to write an entire article on my thought about the Rock moves this week, acquiring Billy Hostrawser from the Stealth and releasing Stephen Hoar, so I’ll just put a couple of thoughts here. First off, I have no problem with acquiring Hostrawser for draft picks – unless they’re in the first round, draft picks are always a crapshoot anyway so giving them up for an actual warm body who can play now is fine. And he’s a young defender who can fight – just ask Mike Lum-Walker, his new teammate and sparring partner in last week’s Rock/Stealth game. He’s even scored a goal and has a few assists.

I am a little puzzled by Hoar’s release, though. In a number of interviews, both Terry Sanderson and John Lovell have mentioned that they are looking forward to the return of Patrick Merrill and Chris White (and Bill Greer, while he was out) because they bring some veteran leadership to the defense. They said that the young players (Lum-Walker, O’Connor, Dunn, England) are doing fine but more veterans on the back end would not only help the team but would help the kids to learn as well. And then they release Hoar, who is a veteran defender, and replace him with a guy with all of 15 games of NLL experience.

Hoar is also their only face-off guy who’s not injured. So I hope Patrick Merrill is back tonight, since 13 Rock face-offs this year have not been taken by Hoar, and they’ve only won 5 of them. Hostrawser has never taken one in the NLL, so no help there. That said, it’s not like Hoar is Geoff Snider either. He has a sub-.500 career faceoff percentage and was only at 35.7% this season. The Rock have never had a really strong face-off guy, since Merrill is under .500 over his career as well.

Week 6 picks

Posted on January 31, 2014 by Graeme

A quiet week in the NLL last week, with only 3 games. I went 2-1 thanks to the Rush coming back against the Stealth and the Bandits holding on against the Knighthawks. And if John Grant had been an inch or two off in his no-look behind-the-back shot in OT, I might have gone 3-0.

Just like I say every week, some tough games to pick this week. Parity’s a bitch, ain’t it?

Record: 13-8 (.619)

Game	Comments	Pick
VAN @ TOR	Not sure about this one. The Stealth have played well but not really well, seeing as they’re 2-3. The Rock have played well but not really well, other than their first game against Calgary. Going with the return of Billy Greer to help the home fans give the Rock a boost.
TOR @ BUF	What a difference a coach makes. Oh, and Ryan Benesch and Rory Smith too. Last year I only picked the Bandits to win 4 times all season. This is the fifth time this year I’ve picked the Bandits to win. Cosmo is playing really well, the offense is clicking, and I think every game for the rest of the season will be played for Tucker Williams. The Bandits have always been a tough team to beat, not only on the scoresheet but physically too – and now you can add emotionally to that list. #BraverThanBrave
VAN @ PHI	Philly has impressed me this year. They’re playing a lot better than I expected, especially without Rabil and Crotty and Seibald and Miller. But the Stealth didn’t fly all the way to Philadelphia to lose and if they lose to Toronto on Friday night, they’ll be even hungrier. Richards steals this one for the Stealth.
MIN @ COL	Two struggling teams face off. The Mammoth has played seven games, and in only two of them have they not switched goalies. Both times it’s been Dillon Ward, so I’m gonna guess that he gets the start. The return of Drew Westervelt and the season debut of Casey Powell will help the offense in a big way. The fact that the Swarm are averaging less than 7½ goals per game makes this pick a little easier too.
ROC @ EDM	The undefeated Rush battle the almost-undefeated Knighthawks. This will be a battle of the two best defenses in the league and two of the top goalies. Not surprisingly, these two teams are tops in goals against per game – Rochester at 8.5 and Edmonton at 8.0. They’re the only teams under 10. I’m taking the Rush and if the over/under on total goals scored was 17, I’d be tempted to take the under.

Week 5 picks

Posted on January 24, 2014 by Graeme

I went 4-3 last week, getting the Philly/Minnesota back-to-back backwards, and going with Vancouver over Calgary. Props to my Addicted to Lacrosse co-host Tyler for going 6-1. He also got the VAN/CAL game wrong, but after the show he found out that Kyle Sorensen wouldn’t play in Calgary and tweeted that Vancouver wouldn’t win in Calgary without him. This turned out to be correct, so we’ll give him 6.5 out of 7.

Only three games this week, but still some tough ones.

Record: 11-7 (.611)

Game	Comments	Pick
ROC @ BUF	The Bandits are playing with a ton of confidence right now. The offense is clicking (even without John Tavares last weekend), and the defense is playing well in front of a revitalized Anthony Cosmo. I’ve said before that it’s hard for me to bet against Matt Vinc, but I guess it’s not impossible.
COL @ CAL	Colorado beat the Stealth in week 2, but haven’t played well since. It’s hard to convince myself at this point that they can beat the Roughnecks. Drew Westervelt will miss this game because of a US field lacrosse team tryout or practice or something, so that won’t help the Mammoth at all.
EDM @ VAN	With these two goalies and defenses, this could be the lowest scoring game of the year. Edmonton is unlikely to go 18-0, and Vancouver definitely has the talent to beat them, but not this time. Looking forward to the Rush/Knighthawks game next weekend.

Week 4 picks

Posted on January 17, 2014 by Graeme

Holy crap. I went 5-1 last week, my best weekend for making picks EVER except for my 5-0 week back in March of 2012. Of course, the only one I got wrong was the one I most wanted to be right – the Toronto/Buffalo game. A whopping seven games this weekend, so I have lots of opportunity to make a huge jump in the percentages, and lots of opportunity to drop back under .500.

Once again, I gave my picks on this week’s Addicted to Lacrosse show.

Record: 7-4 (.636)

Game	Comments	Pick
CAL @ EDM	Edmonton looked really good last weekend, and they’re at home again.
COL @ VAN	Iannucci playing against his old team makes this an interesting game, but I still have to go with the Stealth. I’m starting to feel the same about betting against Tyler Richards as I am about Matt Vinc.
MIN @ PHI	Philly lost their game against Buffalo last week but they have to feel confident about their 2nd half comeback. Minnesota has yet to prove that they can score without Ryan Benesch.
TOR @ ROC	I hate to pick against my team, but like I said, I also find it hard to pick against Matt Vinc.
VAN @ CAL	I have no explanation for this pick. This will be really good game and I can see either one taking it.
BUF @ COL	Buffalo looked really good in the second half of their game against the Rock. That plus their OT win in Philly will give them confidence.
PHI @ MIN	Minnesota’s home opener, and they’re playing against their former teammate, who they also saw the previous night.