Category Archives: Predictions

Week 3 picks

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The first of two busy weekend in the NLL – six games this weekend, seven next weekend. I announced all my picks on this week’s Addicted to Lacrosse show but in the unlikely event that you didn’t watch the show (you did, right? RIGHT?), here they are. This will be true going forward – we plan on making predictions on the show every week, and I’ll be posting mine here as well.

Record: 2-3 (.400)

Game
Comments
Pick
TOR @ BUF The Rock looked really good last weekend while Buffalo didn’t. The Rock are 14-6 all-time in Buffalo. That said, Troy Cordingley would love to prove to the Rock that firing him was a mistake, and so he’ll have his team ready to play. I’m going to this game – should be a good one. Rock5
COL @ CAL Calgary did not play like Calgary last week and so they will want to prove to their home fans that they are still a team to be reckoned with. Colorado will attempt to reckon with them. If Dillon Ward starts and plays like he’s done so far this year, this prediction could easily go south. (Get it? Colorado is south of Calgary) Roughnecks
PHI @ ROC Philly looked really good last weekend, but I find it hard to bet against Matt Vinc. Knighthawks
COL @ EDM Toughest game to call this week. Edmonton was 2-6 at home last year and 7-1 away, but I’m betting they can improve on that this year. Rush
MIN @ VAN The Swarm kept the Knighthawks to only 8 goals last week, but I don’t think they can be that strong defensively two weeks in a row. The Stealth are playing their first-ever home game in Vancouver (as a Vancouver team, anyway, they played the Championship game last year and a couple of pre-season games in Langley over the last couple of years) so they’ll want to put on a good show. Stealth
BUF @ PHI After losing their first two (assuming my prediction above holds), the Bandits will be angry and will do whatever they can to avoid starting 0-3. This anger and desperation could result in a debacle where they take a million penalties and lose by a ton, or Troy could pull them together and make them play better. There’s no evidence yet that he can do the latter (Darris certainly couldn’t over the last couple of years), but that’s what I’m going to go with. Bandits

Week 2 picks

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The first week of the season had some of the expected and a bit of the unexpected. The expected: Rochester and Minnesota both got great goaltending but the Knighthawks offense was just that much better than the Swarm’s. The unexpected: Colorado had goaltending problems until rookie Dillon Ward showed up, John Grant didn’t record a point until almost the end of the third quarter, and Mark Matthews didn’t score. Also unexpected: Philadelphia impressed, Buffalo did not. Well, given the fact that Buffalo ended up last in the league last year and wasn’t much better the year before, perhaps that shouldn’t have been unexpected. But I really thought the changes the Bandits made would make for a better performance than what we saw.

Record: 1-2 (.333)

Game
Comments
Pick
CAL @ TOR No team in the league scares me as much as Calgary when they come to town. Their offense is just too stacked and the team is just strong top to bottom. That said, the Rock ain’t bad either so I’m going with the home floor advantage. Rock
VAN @ COL The Stealth are right behind the Roughnecks in terms of a strong top-to-bottom team. Tyler Richards is probably the best goalie in the league not named Matt, and they must have some serious confidence in the likes of Tyler Digby and Cody Bremner to keep them in lieu of Dean Hill and the Nooch. Stealth

Week 1 picks

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Last season I went 33-39 in my regular season picks and then 3-4 in the playoffs, which means that your average coin can pick NLL winners more successfully than I can. Let’s see if I can boost my percentage this season.

Record: 0-0 (.000)

Game
Comments
Pick
PHI @ BUF New coach, new scoring leader, opening day after a lousy season in front of the loudest fans in the league, it can only go well for the Bandits. Right? Bandits
MIN @ ROC Schuss, Noble, and Jones will be looking to impress in their debuts, and Andrew Suitor returns. But it’s hard to pick against the defending two-time champs. Knighthawks
EDM @ COL Toughest pick of the week. I think the Rush will have a good season and I picked them to finish ahead of Colorado. But I’m going with the Mammoth in this one anyway. Mammoth

2014 NLL Predictions

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As I do every year, here are my predictions for the final regular season standings for the upcoming season, and also the major end-of-season awards.

Final Standings

East

  1. Rochester
  2. Toronto
  3. Buffalo
  4. Minnesota
  5. Philadelphia

West

  1. Calgary
  2. Vancouver
  3. Edmonton
  4. Colorado

 

Individual Awards

MVP

Winner:  Garrett Billings. He’s been right up there in MVP voting for a couple of years, and I think this is his year.
Short list: Cody Jamieson, Mark Matthews

Goaltender of the Year

Winner: Matt Vinc. I may just pick Vinc every year until he retires or The Next Matt Vinc arrives.
Short list: Tyler Richards, Aaron Bold

Defensive Player of the Year

Winner: Kyle Rubisch. Like Vinc, I’ll likely just keeping guessing Rubisch until someone else rips the award away from him.
Short list: Mike Grimes, Rory Smith

Transition Player of the Year

Winner: Geoff Snider. This is who I think should win. If I were to pick who I think will win, it’d be Jordan MacIntosh. But MacIntosh isn’t strictly a transition player, and for some reason this really annoys me. This is similar to Jeff Shattler a couple of years ago – was he the MVP: yes. Was he the transition player of the year: in my opinion, no.
Short list: Jesse Gamble, Brad Self

Rookie of the Year

Winner: Robert Church. This award is almost always a tough one. It’s a crapshoot which rookies will quickly adapt to the NLL and which will not.
Short list: Logan Schuss, Jason Noble, Cody Bremner, Karsen Leung

Les Bartley (Coach of the Year)

Winner: Chris Hall
Short list: Troy Cordingley, Derek Keenan

GM of the Year

Winner: Steve Dietrich
Short list: Doug Locker

Championship game pick

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I went .500 during both the first and second weeks of the playoffs, and all I know about the third week is that I won’t go .500.

Regular season record: 33-39 (.458)
Playoff record: 3-3 (.500)

Game

Comments

Pick
ROC @ WAS Neither team had their best regular season, but the regular season means zilch at this point. There are great coaches at both ends. Given the breakdown below and adding in the home-ish floor advantage, I have to go with the Stealth. Stealth4

Goaltending: Richards vs. Vinc is one of the best goaltending matchups in a Championship game in recent years. I’d call that a draw but if I had to pick one, I’d probably give Vinc a slight edge.

Offense: We have Duch, Ratcliff, Nooch, Bucktooth, Hill, and Smith on one side and Jamieson, Dawson, Powless, Vitarelli, Point, and Accursi on the other. Powerful on both sides, but I’m giving the Stealth the edge there, especially if Jamieson and Vitarelli are not at 100%.

Defense/Transition: Rochester has the Selfs, Dawson, Smith, Kirk, and McCready but the Stealth has Sorensen, Grimes, Moleski, Garrison, Snider, Henderson, and Beers. Again, both are strong, but Washington wins there.

Division final picks

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I went 2-2 in last week’s first-round games, just as I did in the first round last year. I continue to get the Stealth completely backwards – they lose when I pick them to win and vicy versy. I knew the Swarm were going to be a tough opponent for the Rock, but not that tough. The predictions only get tougher from here. Hopefully I do better than my Swarm @ Rock finals prediction from 2012.

Regular season record: 33-39 (.458)
Playoff record: 2-2 (.500)

Game

Comments

Pick
MIN @ ROC After watching the Swam dismantle the Rock last weekend, it’s hard to bet against them. Knowing that Cody Jamieson will be at best playing hurt (and more likely not playing at all) and they may also be without Cory Vitarelli doesn’t help the Knighthawks’ cause. But I agree with Teddy Jenner: if the Swarm don’t start Tyler Carlson after his recent performances, they’re nuts. Carlson vs. Vinc – this will be a great goalie battle. Swarm
WAS @ CAL Was this one ever tough to call. Both teams have it all. Great goaltending? Check. Lots of firepower up front? Check. Transition? Defense? Great faceoff guy named Snider? Check, check, check. The biggest difference here is coaching. Chris Hall was my second choice for the Les Bartley award and has taken the Stealth to the Championship in 2 of the last 3 years, while Curt Malawsky is a rookie. Gary Gait won the championship as a rookie coach so there’s precedent there, but I still think I’m gonna have to give this one to the Stealth. Stealth

Welcome to the NLL 2023 season!

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Welcome back! We’re back for the 12th year of NLL Chatter, as we get ready for the 2023 NLL season. We’ve had a busy off-season with some trades, free agent signings, and for the first time in six years, league expansion so there’s lots to talk about. Let’s get to it!

Expansion

The NLL is now the biggest it’s ever been, with the 13th and 14th teams joining for this season. For the first time since 1999, the NLL will have a team in Baltimore, as the Lightning join the Eastern division. Too bad the old Baltimore Thunder name wasn’t still available, as the Mammoth still own that, but Lightning is a pretty good homage to the old Baltimore team. In the West, the Victoria Islanders join their British Columbia cousins in Vancouver. The league announced that only two of the expansion bids would get a team this year, and the Baltimore bid was pretty much a lock, but I thought the Winnipeg one had a better shot than Victoria. The announcement that the Islanders were joining was a little surprising, but we must assume that Commissioner Jenner had good reasons for that decision.

As I said, this is the first league expansion since 2017 when the Vancouver Rough Riders and Chicago Beagles joined, just a year after the Detroit Hammerheads gave the league an even ten teams. Considering the issues the league had in the 90’s and early 2000’s with teams folding and moving all over the place, it’s amazing that the nine teams from the 2012 season (that’s all there was at the time!) are still around, though I think the Stealth might have been gone if Rhys Duch hadn’t married Dakota Fanning in 2014, thus bringing lacrosse into the national spotlight and sending the Stealth attendance through the roof.

Personnel changes

Obviously every team had some changes with the expansion draft, and there were a couple of trades as well. The most surprising was the trading of Garrett Billings from Toronto to Vancouver, so he can play closer to his hometown of Langley. Giving up seven-time MVP Billings was huge for the Rock, though receiving veterans Kiel Matisz and Johnny Powless, prospect Cam Sanderson (son of Toronto GM Josh), and two first round draft picks is a pretty good return for the only 200-point player in NLL history.

Dan Dawson joins his eleventh NLL team by signing with the Washington Stealth. At 41, Dawson can still put the numbers up, and by joining the defending Champion Stealth, he sets himself up pretty well for finally winning that first Championship. Of course, that’s what he thought when he joined the 2013 Knighthawks, the 2020 Bandits, and the 2021 Roughnecks.

In Buffalo, nothing new under the sun as John Tavares returns for his 32nd season as a Bandit, and 21st playing for head coach Darris Kilgour. Ever since Tavares had his knees, hips, ankles, elbows, and shoulders replaced with titanium joints, he’s been unstoppable, even over a 24-game season. And to think we called him “ageless” ten years ago!

Only one coaching change, as Kevin Finneran steps down as Wings coach after their first time missing the playoffs in over a decade. Another former Wing player, Brodie Merrill, takes over the reins. Merrill will try to bring the Wings back to their glory years when they won all those Championships in the 1990’s and from 2014-2018.

Predictions

In the East, I have to go with the Knighthawks in first yet again. We’ll see if Matt Vinc can break his own record of three shutouts in a season. After that, we have the Rock, Bandits, Wings, and expansion Baltimore Lightning.

The Central division will be interesting, as the Swarm try to extend their seven-year streak of finishing first, while the Mammoth, newly retooled by GM and head coach John Grant, attempt to improve on their three consecutive second place finishes. Detroit should do OK if Dane Dobbie’s switch to goaltender goes as smoothly as last year, and Chicago will probably suck again since Nick Rose’s switch to forward didn’t work out quite as well.

Defending champs Washington have to be the favourite in the West, closely followed by Edmonton and Calgary (featuring the first player-GM-head coach in NLL history, Andrew McBride), with Vancouver and Victoria duking it out for last.

This is going to be one crazy season! But it’s the NLL and it’s late October, so bring it on!

Division semi-final picks

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I went 2-2 in the final week of the season, bringing me to 33-39. Not bad, better than last year, but still not up to the level of my IL Indoor colleagues, all but one of whom finished at or above .500. Only Ty Pilson finished with a losing record, and he was still two games ahead of me. I will need to step up my “make wild guesses” game.

What better way to do that than with four games that could easily go either way? I really should be used to that since that’s been the case in the NLL pretty much all season long.

Regular season record: 33-39 (.458)
Playoff record: 0-0 (.000)

Game

Comments

Pick
PHI @ ROC Which Rochester team shows up? The one that scored 20 against Philly and then 15 against Buffalo the next night, or the one that 14 total against Buffalo and Philly over the next two weeks? I’m gonna say neither since I don’t see this being a high-scoring game, but I think Rochester will win it. The Knighthawks offense started to play better once they traded Casey Powell and while both goalies can steal a game, Vinc is my choice for Goaltender of the Year. Knighthawks5_thumb
COL @ CAL Tye Belanger does seem to be the real deal in net, but it’s his first season. I honestly don’t know if “playoff experience” is a real thing that actually affects how you play, but lots of people seem to think so, and Tye doesn’t have any of it. That said, the Roughnecks might be without Dane Dobbie and Scott Ranger. It’s not like there’s nobody else on Calgary that can score, but it puts a lot more pressure on Dickson, Shattler, and Veltman to produce. Roughnecks
EDM @ WAS The Rush have been the most complete team in the second half of this season. They gave up the second fewest goals in the league (fewest on the road), and their scoring is 3rd in the league (2nd on the road). They were 7-1 away from Edmonton this year. They also remember how close they got last year… Rush
MIN @ TOR Of all the teams Toronto could have faced in the first round of the playoffs, Minnesota would have been last on my list of preferences. The two teams played twice this year, each team winning 13-12 at home. Nick Rose better have a good night though, since we’ve seen that the Swarm can have an explosive offense, particularly Callum Crawford. Tyler Carlson is another potential game-stealer. I’m still going with the Rock, but this will be a tough win. Rock

Week 16 picks

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In the penultimate week of the regular season, I went 3-2 – extending my .500-or-better streak to 6 weeks. I can’t hit .500 overall this year – 4-for-4 this weekend will put me at 35-37, or .486. On the upside, the worst I can do this year is 31-41 or .431, which is what my prediction record was last year.

People have worried that eight of nine teams making the playoffs means there are fewer “meaningful games”, but nothing could be further from the truth this weekend. All the games have playoff implications for all the teams – even the Rock, who aren’t playing.

Buffalo is fighting for their playoff lives, as are Rochester and Colorado. In fact, Buffalo and Rochester are fighting each other for their playoff lives. If Rochester wins, Buffalo’s out. If Buffalo wins, Rochester’s fate depends on the Mammoth-Swarm game. The Mammoth can clinch with a win, but also if Rochester wins.

The rest of the teams are playing for their playoff seedings – I think the Swarm and Mammoth are the only teams who can’t host a playoff game. I won’t go over all the possibilities in the west since they’re complicated. They’re all listed on nll.com anyway. Suffice it to say that all the remaining games are crucial and nobody’s going to be mailing it in this weekend.

If I get my picks right, we’ll have Colorado crossing over to play the Rock and the Wings playing in Rochester. In the west, Edmonton will host Minnesota (with the Swarm ready for some payback for last year’s embarrassing playoff loss) and Calgary will play in Washington.

Record: 31-37 (.456)

Game

Comments

Pick
ROC @ BUF Who shows up this weekend – the Bandits from last week or the Bandits from the previous six? Either way, Matt Vinc is in the running for Goaltender of the Year and as much as I’d hate to see John Tavares finish his career (not that that is a sure thing either) on a losing note, I’m giving this one to the Knighthawks. Knighthawks5
CAL @ EDM The Rush have only won twice at home this year, but Calgary will be without Dane Dobbie. The Rush would love the “first overall” title to go along with their first-ever home playoff game(s). I think Bold returns from an off week to shut down the Roughnecks – at least, as much as they can be shut down. As a Rock fan, I’d love to see the Rush lose this one so the Rock can clinch first overall, but I’m picking Edmonton. Rush4
COL @ MIN The Swarm are averaging over 16 goals in their last six games, and Callum Crawford has been the league’s best player over the last several weeks. The Mammoth have been playing fairly well, beating the Rush and Wings in recent weeks, and they beat the Swarm back in February, but they’re no match for the new and improved Swarm. Swarm
PHI @ WAS I took forever to make this pick and changed my mind a few times. Both teams have strong goaltending but have been inconsistent all season. But the Stealth have a better offense, and if Iannucci returns this weekend, he’ll be itching to show his stuff after being benched for two weeks. I know they’re 4-5 when I pick them and 4-2 when I don’t, but I have to go with the Stealth again. Stealth4

Week 15 picks

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3-3 record last week thanks to Tye Belanger keeping the Rush offense to only 7 goals and the Wings remembering how to score goals. The only way I can finish at or above .500 this season is to go 8-1 or 9-0 in the last two weeks, so that is the plan. If it doesn’t happen, it’s not my fault – blame the players for not going along with the plan.

Record: 28-35 (.444)

Game

Comments

Pick
ROC @ CAL Rochester will very likely make the playoffs, which wasn’t certain only a few weeks ago. Calgary already has but would like a home playoff game. Both teams have won 3 of their last 5 (for Calgary, it’s actually 3 of their last 4). Matt Vinc hasn’t given up as many as 12 in a game since January 19 and has held the Wings, Rock, Bandits, and Stealth to single-digits since then. Mike Poulin has only kept opponents below 12 four times this season. Knighthawks
MIN @ COL Minnesota seems to have become the team I thought they were going to be at the beginning of the season, though it took them a long time to get there. Callum Crawford is on fire (7+ points in 5 straight games) and Tyler Carlson has a GAA of 6.00 and save % of 88% in his last two starts. Since Minnesota keeps swapping starting goalies and Kirk lost in Philly last week, this is Carlson’s game. Swarm
TOR @ PHI The Rock really want that top seed overall, but the Wings aren’t guaranteed a playoff spot quite yet, and they always seem to give the Rock trouble. When Brandon Miller is “on”, he’s almost untouchable (though you could say that about almost all of the starting goalies in the league), and with Mundorf back from injury, the Wings offense just got stronger. The Rock currently have the best record in the league, so picking them is not a homer pick. I’m sticking to that. Rock
BUF @ WAS The Bandits seem to have lost interest in the 2013 season, while the Stealth still have a chance at a home playoff game. Buffalo is this close to being eliminated from the playoffs, so either they’ll pour on the energy this weekend in an attempt to stay in the race, or they’ll fold, figuring they have no chance. I didn’t see much fight in them last week or the week before, so I don’t expect much this weekend. Stealth
ROC @ EDM The Rush are 1-5 at home and 7-1 on the road, so maybe they’re not playing for home-floor advantage in the playoffs. The Rush looked too good in their games against Buffalo and Toronto the other week to bet against them. Every team had bad games, which is what they had against Colorado last week, but I think they’ll bounce back. Rush