Category Archives: Preview

2013 Preview: Rochester Knighthawks

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KnighthawksThe Knighthawks won the NLL Championship in 2012, so obviously they don’t need major changes to their team in 2013, right? Well, what if they add two of the last four NLL MVPs? Have they just made a very good team better, or have they messed too much with the chemistry of a team that was already successful?

Rochester did win the title in 2012, but that doesn’t mean they were the best team. Remember that the Knighthawks finished the regular season 3rd in the East with a 7-9 record, and only won two games in a row once during the regular season. I suppose they did win three in a row when it counted – in the playoffs – but they were not nearly as dominant a team as, say, the Knighthawks team that won the 2007 championship.

Roster changes

Similar to my Philadelphia report, I had this section all done, saying that other than Powell and Rabil, the Knighthawks haven’t made all that many changes. Then they made the Rabil deal and that all changed. On offense, they’re adding Casey Powell and Dan Dawson and losing… nobody. On transition, they added Joel McCready, but lost Jarrett Davis in the first Rabil trade and Jordan Hall, Joel White, and Robbie Campbell in the second. On the defense, Pat McCready retired but Paul Dawson replaces him. Goaltending, Vinc and Henhawk, is unchanged from last year.

Burning question

Take a decent team and add Casey Powell or Dan Dawson and they’ll be better. That’s almost a given. But what happens when you add both? In addition, the Knighthawks were better than decent, and already had a legitimate number one scorer in Cody Jamieson.

By taking a good team and adding (or attempting to add) two superstars, Curt Styres may have been trying to re-create the “Shaq-Kobe” Lakers or “LeBron-Wade-Bosh” Heat. But the Boston Blazers had “the Big Three”, including both Powell and Dawson, and did not bring a championship to Boston. In fact, they never even won a playoff game. My burning question for the Knighthawks is whether Cody Jamieson is still the offensive leader of the team, or does he step back for Dawson?

Prediction

Not sure how I can predict anything other than first in the East for the Hawks.

Haiku

Few changes, but big
With Powell and the Dawsons
The champs have improved

2013 Preview: Philadelphia Wings

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WingsOver the first sixteen years of the Philadelphia Wings’ existence, they missed the playoffs only once, and won five championships. But in the ten years since then, they have only made the playoffs twice, and lost both games. The Wings are no longer top of the heap when it comes to attendance – they haven’t had over 12,000 at a game since 2007. The long-suffering Wings fans have been thinking “Finally, this will be our year!” for almost ten years, only to be disappointed yet again. Keep that up for three more decades, Wings fans, and you’ll get a taste of what it’s like to be a Toronto Maple Leafs fan.

In 2012, things started to look like they might be turning around for the Wings. In fact, two thirds of the way through the season, things were looking really good. They were 7-4, in first place in the East, and had beaten the Rock and Bandits twice each. Kevin Crowley was having an excellent rookie season and Dan Dawson was right near the top of the scoring race. And then things fell apart. They lost their last five games and only made the playoffs by virtue of the NLL’s generous playoff format (as someone put it on the Wingszone message boards: “72 games to eliminate 1 team followed by 7 games to eliminate 7 teams”) before being dispatched by the Knighthawks.

As I mentioned in my 2012 post-season report, “The decade-long rebuild of the Wings continues.”

Roster changes

I wrote most of this section a while ago and had it all ready to go, saying that the Wings hadn’t made many big changes. Then they went and made one of the biggest trades in NLL history. Gone are the Dawson brothers, in are a whole bunch of transition players. The day of the trade, the Wings had 8 forwards listed, one of whom was Dan Dawson, and 3 transition players. But Chris Schiller was listed as D, and he’s arguably another tranny. Add the four acquired from Rochester (Rabil, Hall, White, Campbell), and we have 7 forwards and 8 transition players.

I’m not sure how the Wings expect to make up the offense they’ve lost. They brought in Kevin Ross, who will certainly help. Rabil will probably score more than your average transition player, but he won’t make up for Dan Dawson. They traded Mike Hominuck and acquired Kevin Buchanan – call that a wash unless Buchanan reverts to his Boston / Minnesota form – his point total dropped by half last season. Add to that the fact that Brendan Mundorf will likely miss most of the season, and the Wings are down 133 points from last season.

Now, maybe Drew Westervelt will have a breakout season and score 90 points. Maybe Crowley will see the departure of Dawson as his opportunity to lead the offense and he’ll score 90. Maybe Ned Crotty and Rabil will finally take to the box game and they’ll score 50 each. OK, that last one may be a bit more of a stretch but either of the first two is possible. Remember how the Roughnecks were going to suck once they traded Kelusky and Sanderson away?

On the D, the Wings traded Paul Dawson and David Brock and lost Tom Hajek to retirement, and replaced them with… nobody. They had a few transition guys like Brodie Merrill, Max Seibald, and Chris Schiller; they traded for Kyle Hartzell; and they just got four more. Most of those guys will likely spend time on the defense as well, so it’s not like they have nobody to play back there.

Backup goalie Kurtis Wagar signed with the Bandits, leaving the Wings with Brandon Miller and Kevin Croswell. Miller was a workhorse last year, with only 3 goalies in the league playing more minutes, but didn’t have a great year, finishing 13th in GAA and 12th in save percentage.

Burning question

Will the Wings’ obsession with American field players finally pay off?

Prediction

Nope. Fourth in the east.

Haiku

Rabil, no Dawsons
Transition – or midfielders?
This is box, not field

2013 Preview: Washington Stealth

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StealthAfter winning the Championship in 2010 and going to the finals again in 2011, the Stealth finished dead last in 2012, the only team out of the playoffs. Safe to say that nobody saw that coming. Head coach Chris Hall missed about six games at the beginning of the season but when he returned, nothing changed. Jeff Zywicki missed five games in February but when he returned, nothing changed. Tyler Richards missed three games in February and March but when he returned, nothing changed. The offense was struggling and they traded Paul Rabil for Athan Iannucci, but nothing changed. Things seemed to be turning around in March, when they beat Toronto, split a home-and-home with Colorado, then after losing to the Rush they scored 20 against the Swarm. I started to wonder if maybe the Stealth would gain some momentum at the end of the season and even if they didn’t make the playoffs, go out with a bang. But the bang turned to a whimper as they lost their last four.

Roster changes

I said in my west division wrap-up last year that “it wouldn’t surprise me if the 2013 Stealth isn’t significantly different from the 2012 Stealth” which is a confusingly-worded way of saying that I didn’t expect any huge changes. But I didn’t expect them to do almost nothing. Cam Sedgwick and former captain Jason Bloom both retired and joined the coaching staff, and Kyle Hartzell was traded to Philadelphia. That’s it. Veteran Jeff Zywicki was also cut during training camp, but he’s been battling injury problems for a couple of years; he missed a bunch of games last year and most of 2011.

Burning question

This team isn’t really as bad as they looked last year, are they?

Prediction

No. I think they can battle Colorado for the middle of the pack in the west, but they won’t catch the Swarm or Roughnecks. Fourth in the west.

Haiku

Zywicki, Bloom: gone
Lots of rookies join the team
Return to glory?

2013 Preview: Minnesota Swarm

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SwarmI don’t think it’s a stretch to say that the 2012 Swarm season went beyond any but the most optimistic expectations. I picked them to finish last in the West last year (as did others), but a third-place prediction wouldn’t have been completely crazy. But third best offense in the league? Two rookie goaltenders, one of whom ends up with the best GAA and save percentage in the league? Third best defense in the league? Taking out the mighty Colorado Mammoth in the playoffs? Did not see that coming.

Roster changes

I was going to describe the roster changes as “nothing huge”, but Richard Morgan is huge. He’s off to Colorado, Kevin Ross to Philly, and Brendan Doran to Buffalo. But the most important changes aren’t who’s gone, but who’s arriving. The Swarm had the number 2, 3, and 4 picks in the draft, and all three are expected to be on the floor (at some point – Brock Sorensen starts the year on the IR) for Minnesota this year. Sorensen, one of the most coveted players in the draft, is a big defender, Kiel Matisz (I believe that’s pronounced like “Kyle muh-TEES” – pronunciation is important to me) is a big forward, and Shayne Jackson is not a big forward – at 5’9″ he’s eight inches shorter than Matisz or Sorensen – but if you send your big Rich Morgan-type defenders out to cover Matisz, Jackson will just run between their legs.

I wonder if now that teams have had a full season’s look at Evan Kirk, some might have figured him out, at least to some extent. Is he headed for the dreaded sophomore slump? Maybe, but having Tyler Carlson as a #1a goaltender makes that less critical. If they both struggle the Swarm may have trouble, but they have both shown they can start in the NLL. It’s hard to predict that Kirk will have a better season than 2012 (best GAA and best save % among goalies with >150 minutes), but even a small drop would still leave Minnesota with possibly the best goalie combo in the league – if Kirk’s GAA was 15% higher than it was, he’d still be in the top 5.

Burning question

Did the 2012 Swarm overachieve, or are they really that good?

Prediction

I think they are. And if their new crop of rookies perform as well as last year’s crop, 2012 might have been the first of a number of great seasons for the Swarm. Second in the west.

Haiku

Surprisingly good
Rookies did the job last year
Still getting better

2013 Preview: Edmonton Rush

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RushAt the end of the 2012 regular season, the Rush were the least likely team to make the finals (other than the Stealth). Despite a strong second half of the season, they were 6-10, had lost two in a row, and faced the 12-4 Calgary Roughnecks in the first round. But the Rush found a way to not only pull off a win against the Riggers, but they did it convincingly, winning 19-11. The next game was even more convincing, a 15-3 drubbing of the Minnesota Swarm which put them in the Championship game for the first time in franchise history. The final game started off looking like it would be more of the same for the Rush, as they led the Knighthawks 5-1 at halftime. But the ‘Hawks scored 8 of the last 9 goals, including 7 in a row, to pull off the comeback. The Rush got farther into the playoffs than they ever had before but I imagine they are still disappointed with the result.

Only one team gave up fewer goals than the Rush in 2012, but nobody scored fewer. Their top two scorers, Shawn Williams and Ryan Ward, were 16th and 28th in the league respectively.

Roster changes

So if your team is struggling offensively but sparkles defensively, what do you do? I know! Trade your top scorer and another veteran scorer who had an off year and bring in transition guys! Sounds dumb, right? Well, maybe not. Yes, losing Williams will hurt, but Wilson wasn’t the offensive threat they expected him to be. Wilson scored just over half the points he had in Minnesota in 2011 and just over a third of what he had in 2010. Scott Evans was also released, though he missed the last few games of the season and the playoffs anyway. But they did get Cory Conway from Calgary, so that will replace some of the offense.

And then there’s Mark Matthews.

The hype around this guy is unreal, and it seems that some people are expecting Matthews to look like John Grant right out of the gate. Obviously that’s a bit unrealistic, but 60+ points is almost expected, and an Adam Jones / Kevin Crowley-type rookie season (75+ points) would not be out of the question. The Rush have also added Alex Turner, who didn’t play last year but picked up 39 points for the Wings in 2011, and rookie Curtis Knight (along with Matthews) has previously played for Rush GM and head coach Derek Keenan in his role as coach of the Whitby Warriors.

The Rush lost Derek Suddons (traded) and Steve Toll (CLax) but gained Jarrett Davis and Jeremy Thompson so defense and transition still look good, and Aaron Bold and Brodie MacDonald form one of the better goalie tandems in the NLL, so no problems on that end.

The loss of Paul Rabil means nothing, since neither he nor the guy he replaced, Athan Iannucci, played a single game for the Rush last year.

Burning questions

Should we just give Mark Matthews the Rookie of the Year award now?

Also, will the Rush come back down to Earth after their rise to the Championship game, or did their strong play in the 2012 playoffs give them the confidence the team has lacked for years?

Prediction

By the numbers, Conway + Matthews could offset Williams + Wilson + 3/4 of Evans. But trying to set your offense up to be better than that of the 2012 Rush is not that lofty a goal. As good a goal-scorer as Shawn Williams is, he’s one of the best passers in the history of the league. Can Matthews or Conway or anyone else step up and be that guy?

I’m just not sure about the Rush. Anywhere from first to fifth in the west is possible, but my uncertainty keeps pushing them down. Calgary will be great, Minnesota and Colorado really good, and I don’t think Washington is as bad as last year make them look, which leaves Edmonton. I don’t really see them as a last-place team but someone has to finish last, and I’m just less unsure about the other teams. I’m going to have to say fifth in the west.

Haiku

Lost Williams, Wilson
But wait, help is on the way
Matthews is the man

2013 Preview: Colorado Mammoth

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MammothThe 2012 Colorado Mammoth season may be one of the biggest turnarounds in recent memory. It isn’t a “worst-to-first” story, since they weren’t in last in 2011 nor were they in first in 2012. But going from a .313 season to a .688 season in one year is pretty impressive. Of course, John Grant having one of the best offensive seasons ever will help, as will rookies scoring 76 (Jones) and 46 (Lincoln) points. Just how good would this team have been if Mac Allen had played more than 3 games?

Roster changes

No huge trades for the Mammoth. They acquired Richard Morgan from the Swarm and signed free agents Chet Koneczny and Matt Roik. They did trade Derek Hopcroft, who has a very promising rookie season, to the Bandits though he didn’t actually make the team. Oddly, just as they get Joel Dalgarno back after he missed 2012 entirely due to firefighter training, they will lose Ian Hawksbee for 2013 for the same reason. Transition guy Jed Prossner retired, Scott Stewart was signed by Buffalo, and both John Orsen and Jarett Park begin the season on the PUP list.

Two surprising cuts during training camp were forwards Jamie Shewchuk, acquired from the Swarm mid-season last year, and Alex Gajic.

Burning question

Is this John Grant guy for real? I mean really, one pretty decent season and people are all “best player ever”…

Prediction

Third in the west.

Haiku

Grant is the leader
Last year was record-setting
Only one Gajic left

2013 Preview: Calgary Roughnecks

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RoughnecksThe Roughnecks will have almost exactly the same team team in 2013 as they had in 2012, when they led the league during the regular season but flamed out (Ha! Calgary joke) in the playoffs. One of the few changes they did make was to fire head coach Dave Pym after three successful regular seasons (finishing second in the West once and first twice) but a total of one playoff win. Pym is now a western scout for the Rock (although strangely, has retained his “RiggerCoach” twitter handle); obviously the Philadelphia Wings missed my article saying that he’d be a good fit there. At least this way, Pym didn’t have to move from Alberta.

So Curt Malawsky will shuffle down the bench to become the head coach of the Roughnecks after being an assistant coach (under Pym) for three years. Malawsky ran the offense and will likely continue that role, while former Roughneck Bruce Codd, who played for the Rock last year, has retired to become the defensive coach.

Roster changes

On the floor, the biggest changes are the addition of Aaron Pascas from the Rock, the departure of Cory Conway to the Rush, and the retirement of veteran Kaleb Toth. Toth scored 50 or more points in nine of the previous ten seasons, and only missed seven games (playing 179) in his entire career before 2012. But he was frustrated by injuries last year and picked up only 8 points in 7 games. Toth is well-respected throughout the league, particularly in Calgary, but will always be remembered by Rock fans as the kid who scored The Goal, the last goal ever scored at Maple Leaf Gardens.

Pascas only has one year under his belt, while Conway has played 5 seasons, averaging twice the points per game that Pascas picked up back in 2011, so this is a bit of a drop in production. But if any team can handle a bit of a production drop it’s Calgary – only the Mammoth outscored Calgary last season, and they only outscored them by one.

Burning question

Was Dave Pym the problem? Or will the Roughnecks continue their ongoing San Jose Sharks impression of kicking butt in the regular season and underachieving in the playoffs?

Prediction

The current NLL record for most consecutive seasons with 10+ wins is held by both Toronto and Buffalo with five. 2012 was Calgary’s fourth in a row, and I don’t see any reason why they can’t tie the record in 2013. Their offense is outstanding, defense is great, and Mike Poulin is the reigning goalie of the year. First in the west.

Haiku

Dave Pym, Kaleb Toth
Both gone, but no one can get
Through the Poulin Wall

NLL 2013 rosters: Who’s in, who’s out

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Here is a complete list of the changes in rosters from the end of the 2012 season to the roster lists just announced. Players on the Holdout, Physically Unable to Perform (PUP), or Injured Reserve (IR) lists may be moved to the active roster before the season begins. Note that not all teams listed players on the PIP or IR lists so some may be missing.

Names for each list are in alphabetical order.

Buffalo Bandits

In: Carter Bender, David Brock, Glen Bryan, Nick Cotter, Steve Dietrich (GM), Mike Hominuck, Mike McNamara, Jamie Rooney, Dhane Smith, Hayden Smith, Derek Suddons, Kurtis Wagar, Shawn Williams, Aaron Wilson
Out: Kevin Buchanan, Brandon Francis, Darryl Gibson, Angus Goodleaf, Travis Irving, Darris Kilgour (GM), Ian Llord, Tom Montour, Jeremy Thompson, Mike Thompson, Roger Vyse, Chris White
IR: Jordan Critch, Mat Giles, Jamie Rooney
PUP: Jimmy Purves
Holdout: Joe Smith, Scott Stewart
Practice Squad: Kevin Brownell, Craig England, Derek Hopcroft

 

Philadelphia Wings

In: Kevin Buchanan, C.J. Costabile, Kevin Croswell, Ethan Farrell, Tom Hajek (defensive coach), Will Harrington, Kyle Hartzell, Jake Lazore, Mike Manley, Paul Rabil, Kevin Ross, Brian Tueber, Joel White, Chad Weiedmaier
Out: David Brock, Dan Dawson, Paul Dawson, Dan Deckelbaum, Steve Fryer, Tom Hajek (player), Mike Hominuck, Brendan Mundorf (injured), Jordan Sealock, Joe Smith, Kurtis Wagar
IR: Matt Alrich, Jordan Hall, Dan Hardy, Eric Hoffman, Steve Grossi
PUP: John McFadyen, Brendan Mundorf
Holdout:
Practice Squad:

 

Rochester Knighthawks

In: Dan Dawson, Paul Dawson, Matt Hummel, Joel McCready, Casey Powell
Out: Ryan Cousins (injured), Jarrett Davis, Jordan Hall, Travis Hill, Pat McCready, Tim O’Brien, Joel White
IR:
PUP: Ryan Cousins
Holdout: Kyle Laverty
Practice Squad: Ian Llord, Cody McLeod, Tom Montour

 

Toronto Rock

In: Kyle Belton, Zak Boychuk, Scott Evans, Rob Hellyer, Brandon Ivey, Cody Jacobs, Chris White
Out: Glen Bryan, Pat Campbell, Dan Carey, Bruce Codd, Steve Dietrich (goalie coach), Scott Johnston, Jamie Rooney, Brendan Thenhaus
IR: Mike Lum-Walker, Phil Sanderson
PUP:
Holdout:
Practice Squad:

 

Calgary Roughnecks

In: Bruce Codd (coach), Jackson Decker, Matthew Dinsdale, Curt Malawsky (head coach), Aaron Pascas, Joe Resetarits, Brad Richardson
Out: Cory Conway, Mike Kilby, Ryan McNish, Dave Pym (head coach), Kaleb Toth
IR:
PUP:
Holdout:
Practice Squad: Barclay Hickey, Darren Kinnear

 

Colorado Mammoth

In: Colton Clark, Joey Cupido, Joel Dalgarno (did not play in 2012), Chet Koneczny, Richard Morgan, Matt Roik
Out: Alex Gajic, Ian Hawksbee, Derek Hopcroft, Jed Prossner, Jamie Shewchuk, Scott Stewart
IR:
PUP: Tye Belanger, John Orsen, Jarett Park
Holdout:
Practice Squad: Alex Demopoulos

 

Edmonton Rush

In: Mitch Banister, Mike Burke, Cory Conway, Jarrett Davis, Curtis Knight, Mark Matthews, Jeremy Thompson, Alex Turner
Out: Scott Evans, Jesse Fehr, Eric Lewthwaite, Derek Suddons, Steve Toll, Shawn Williams, Aaron Wilson
IR:
PUP:
Holdout: Tyler Codron
Practice Squad: Dave Marrese

 

Minnesota Swarm

In: Matt Gibson, Shayne Jackson, Pat Smith, Alex Crepinsek, Michael O’Brien, Kiel Matisz
Out: Todd Baxter, Joe Cinosky, Brendan Doran, Matt Kelly, John McClure, Richard Morgan, Kevin Ross
IR:
PUP: Brock Sorensen
Holdout:
Practice Squad: Zach Higgins, Ryan Masters, Tyler Tanguay

 

Washington Stealth

In: Jason Bloom (coach), Kyle Buchanan, Tyler Garrison, Tim Henderson, David Joyce, Mitch McMichael, Patrick O’Meara, Nick Patterson, Justin Pychel
Out: Jason Bloom (player), Kevin Croswell, Kyle Hartzell, Peter Jacobs, Eric Martin, Kyle Ross, Cam Sedgwick, Chris Seidel, Jeff Zywicki
IR: Billy Hostrawser, Drew Snider
PUP:
Holdout: Mitch Jones
Practice Squad: Brett Hickey, Mike Mallory, Justin Salt

Team Summaries and projected changes: West division

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Last week we had a look at the teams in the East division, and where each one may look to improve in the off-season. Now we’ll look at the West division.

Calgary Roughnecks

It’s hard to look at a team like the Roughnecks and figure out where they need to get better. Offense? Second-most goals scored in the league, behind the Mammoth by one. Defense? Lowest goals against in the league by five over the Rush and twenty over the Swarm. Goaltender? 2012 NLL Goaltender of the Year should be good enough. Coaching? 2012 IL Indoor Coach of the Year and runner-up for the Les Bartley Award. As long as they can avoid playing Edmonton in the first round of the playoffs, the Roughnecks should be OK for next year even if they make no changes at all.

Colorado Mammoth

Similar to the Roughnecks, the Mammoth are strong on offense, defense, and goaltending. John Grant is unlikely to repeat his 2012 MVP performance next year, but even a pretty good Junior is better than most of the league. There were a bunch of rookies on the Mammoth this season, all of whom benefited from having Grant around. Jones and Hopcroft and Lincoln and McBride all learned a ton from Grant during his best season and will be better players next year because of it. They will likely be able to pick up the slack even if Junior’s numbers do drop. And even if they don’t, the Mammoth scored more goals than anyone else last year – if they’d scored nineteen fewer goals, they’d still be tied for third.

The Mammoth defense wasn’t as great in 2012 as it was in 2011 – in fact, they were sixth in the league in goals against, and only had two games all year where they gave up less than 10 goals. But they were without defensive stud Mac Allen for most of the season, so having him return was huge. Still, the Mammoth gave up 13 or more goals in 7 of their 16 games; if it wasn’t for their outstanding offense, they wouldn’t have ended up with 11 wins.

I don’t see the Mammoth making any goaltending changes and they certainly don’t need a defensive overhaul, but a bit of an offense-for-defense trade wouldn’t surprise me.

Edmonton Rush

Things are looking great for the Rush’s future. Not only did they make it to the finals, but they have a few first-round draft picks coming their way over the next couple of years from Philly and Washington, including first overall in the next entry draft. Welcome to Edmonton, Mark Matthews. On top of that, they have some trade bait in Paul Rabil and Scott Evans. Although according to Stephen Stamp’s article on IL Indoor, Evans is talking about working out and getting into better shape, and if he can do that and conform a little more to the Rush’s game plan, he may fit into their offense after all. That plus the addition of Matthews (I’m making an assumption here, as is everyone else, that Matthews is the guy they’ll pick) could be the offensive spark the Rush need. They seemed to find that spark in the playoffs, but could have used about a half-game more of it.

Shawn Williams is a free agent – will he want to continue travelling west next season? I’m sure he wouldn’t mind returning to his hometown Rock, but they are already kind of full on the left side with Doyle, Sanderson, and Leblanc. Could he return to the Knighthawks? They just won a Championship without him, so unless he’s part of a package that includes younger players or draft picks, I don’t see Rochester pulling the strings on that deal. The Bandits need to get younger, so that wouldn’t make sense either. If I had to guess though, I see him going back to the Rush since they got so close to a Championship, and the team is likely to be even better next year.

Minnesota Swarm

The Swarm have a young team with tremendous potential, and they also have four first round picks in this year’s entry draft. In three or four years, those guys will have a few seasons under their belts, the current group will really be just entering their prime (how scary a thought is that?), and even vets like Benesch and Crawford are young enough that they’ll still be in their prime. This could be a scary good team for a while. Remember how dominant Calgary and Colorado were in 2012? Wait a few seasons, and we might have Edmonton and Minnesota in that situation, and we’ll be talking about the “aging” Roughnecks. Unless they make big changes before then, the Bandits will be sponsored by Ensure.

The biggest issue the Swarm may face is the infamous sophomore slump – if that hits more than one player, they may have a problem. But then again, in recent years Andrew Suitor, Kyle Rubisch, Cody Jamieson, Stephen Leblanc, and Curtis Dickson have all had pretty decent second seasons. I don’t think there’s a single area of concern for the Swarm – third in goals scored, third in goals against, an outstanding goalie tandem, and two of the best transition players in the league in Suitor and MacIntosh. But if the Swarm decide they do need to make some changes, they have a ton of draft picks to fill in the holes, or they could trade one away. A high first-round draft pick will net you a better-than-decent player, and being left with “only” three first-rounders is still pretty good.

Washington Stealth

This is a tough one. On paper, the Stealth shouldn’t need to make huge changes but after missing the playoffs, they have to do something. Obviously players like Duch, Ratcliff, and Iannucci aren’t going anywhere. On the back end, Sorensen and Captain Bloom are locks, and apparently the Stealth refused to part with Jeff Moleski for Iannucci, so he’s likely staying. Tyler Richards didn’t have the greatest season ever, considering he was 3-9 with a GAA well over 12, but he was also injured for part of the year. How much of that record was his fault vs. the defense in front of him I can’t say, since I didn’t see many Stealth games (and the ones I did see were generally late at night so I was sleepy). But Richards did pick up a few IL Indoor Goaltender of the Year votes, so we’ll assume the Stealth agrees and won’t be dealing him.

The Stealth have the pieces, so I don’t see them making huge roster changes or going into rebuilding mode. There will be a few moves here and there, maybe even a blockbuster to shake things up. But it wouldn’t surprise me if the 2013 Stealth isn’t significantly different from the 2012 Stealth. Unlike the Bandits, perhaps the Stealth’s strategy will be “Hope everyone plays better”. But if they have another season like this one, nobody’s job will be safe.

Team summaries and projected changes: East division

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Now that the 2012 season is behind us, each team will be looking to 2013 and trying to decide what changes need to be made. Let’s look over each team and see what changes may be in store. We’ll start with the East division, and get to the West in a few days.

Buffalo Bandits

There will be lots of changes coming for the Bandits this offseason, if you believe what Darris Kilgour said a number of times during the season. I don’t know how much of that was said in the heat of the moment, but I don’t imagine his strategy for 2013 will be “Hope everyone plays better”.

Goaltending is not a problem assuming Cosmo stays in Buffalo, and I have no reason to believe he won’t. As good as John Tavares was this year, surely he has to slow down sometime, doesn’t he? Maybe, but I’ve been asking that question for five years. Tracey Kelusky has said that he was pretty unhappy with his own play in the 2011 season, and his point total dropped by half in 2012. Considering the impact he’s had on the league over the last ten years, it would be kind of sad to see a sure-fire hall-of-famer like TK retire after two such lacklustre seasons, but I’m not sure I can see the Bandits taking another chance on him.

In a nutshell, the Bandits need to get younger – though ironically, the Bandit least likely to be traded is 43-year-old John Tavares. They have one first round pick (third overall) in the next entry draft thanks to the Chris Corbeil trade, but their own pick – second overall – was sent to Minnesota for Anthony Cosmo. Their first round pick next year belongs to the Swarm as well. I’d look for a number of players to be moved out for draft picks.

Philadelphia Wings

I’m not sure what to think about the Wings. They had periods where they played really well, and periods where they played really badly. Their defense played well against the Rock in Toronto, allowing 8 and 10 goals in two games, and then allowed 13 or more in five of six straight games (and 12 in the sixth). They were in first place in mid-March and then collapsed, losing their last five.

Dan Dawson was obviously not the problem here. Dawson had yet another great season, but in the NLL one player cannot pull a LeBron and lift a team to greatness pretty much by himself. A quick glance at the individual numbers seemed fine, with Dawson over 100 points and Crowley, Mundorf, Westervelt, and Hominuck all over 50. By comparison, the champion Knighthawks only had four players over 50 points, and the Bandits only had three. But after that, things drop off significantly. Brodie Merrill had 32 points, and Siebald and Crotty had 14 each. Nobody else had more than 8. Of their nine losses, they scored fewer than ten goals in five of them (and exactly ten in two more). Only the Edmonton Rush scored fewer goals than the Wings.

And nobody gave up more goals than the Wings. It seemed that for the most part, when the defense had a bad night, they had a bad night. The Wings gave up 15 or more goals six times, though they won one of those six. This seems odd considering there were people voting for both Merrill and Paul Dawson for Defensive Player of the Year. Brandon Miller didn’t have his best season ever, and yet Kurtis Wagar and Steve Fryer played only 71 minutes combined all season.

The decade-long rebuild of the Wings continues. I’m sure Dawson isn’t going anywhere, nor are Crowley or Merrill. But you gotta wonder if anyone else’s job is safe. Considering the Wings don’t have any first round draft picks for the next couple of years, their best hope for improvement is through trades and free agency. They made a big move last off-season to bring in Merrill, and then had Crowley and Dawson dropped in their laps. I’ve thought all along that Philadelphia would be a good fit for Paul Rabil (can you imagine transition studs Rabil and Merrill on one team?) so it wouldn’t surprise me to see another big trade with Edmonton this off-season. Perhaps the Wings should start looking into what players on their team might consider playing out west. Interestingly, Kevin Crowley is from BC.

Rochester Knighthawks

They won the damned championship, so the Knighthawks obviously don’t need an overhaul. They have a mix of young and veteran talent up front, lots of veterans and a couple of kids on D, and an outstanding goalie with many good playing years in front of him. So what are they in desperate need of? Nothing. What could they use? My only thought here might be to get a little younger on the defense. It’s not like their defense is old and creaky, but McCready, Laverty, and Cousins have all been around for a while, and they also have Campbell, Travis Hill, Smith, and Glaves. The only real young players on the D are Dylan Evans, Tyler Burton, and Mike Kirk.

But I don’t think this is a huge hole that really needs filling. If someone offers the Knighthawks a trade, that may be where they want to focus, but if they do nothing at all, Rochester will be poised for more successful seasons to come.

Toronto Rock

Jamie Dawick said that Nick Rose is their goalie of the future, though Dawick also had nothing but good things to say about Matt Roik – right up until he was released. That said, I’d be surprised if Rose wasn’t the starting goalie for the Rock in 2013. It has been implied that Pat Campbell may hang ’em up, in which case the Rock need a new backup goaltender. Dawick also said that Phil Sanderson may have to retire after the concussion he suffered this season. That would be a huge loss for the D.

The offense looks set, except for one position where there was a bit of a problem. That would be the “Stephen Leblanc” position. The guy playing there had some good nights, but wasn’t nearly as effective overall as in 2010 or 2011, so that needs to improve. Dan Carey didn’t have a huge impact on the offense but like Flip, he suffered a season-ending concussion. Seeing as this was the second time in his career he’s missed significant time because of a concussion, Carey may have to walk away as well.

I think they could use a little more size and toughness from their defense. Considering the firepower up front, could the Rock send one of their O guys off for a big D guy and backup goalie? Doyle and Sanderson aren’t going anywhere, and they’re not likely to trade Billings after the season he just had. Could one of Manning, Leblanc or Beirnes be on their way out? Or will the Rock look to the free agent market to shore up the back end?