Category Archives: Preview

NLL 2012 predictions

Posted on by

It’s early January, and you know what that means! NLL prediction season has begun! It’s that time of year that we lacrosse bloggers start making their predictions about what’s going to happen in the upcoming year. I’ll take a look at the overall standings and the major awards. I’m not doing playoff predictions right now, I’ll leave that the end of the regular season.

Overall Standings

East

  1. Toronto
  2. Buffalo
  3. Philadelphia
  4. Rochester

Toronto won the Championship last year with a strong offense, which only got stronger with the addition of Dan Carey and Josh Sanderson. Matt Roik has some pretty big shoes to fill, but as I said in my NLL East division preview, he doesn’t have to be outstanding for the Rock to be successful. Buffalo had some off-years from Kelusky, Steenhuis, and Tavares in 2011, so if they can rebound and Thompson is healthy, they will give the Rock a run for their money. Philly improved substantially with Dawson and Merrill, and I think Rochester’s young guys might need a year before they are a strong team, but look out for them next season.

West

  1. Calgary
  2. Washington
  3. Edmonton
  4. Colorado
  5. Minnesota

Calgary added Shawn Evans to an already strong offense, and has all the tools to win the west again. Washington is always dangerous, and Edmonton is likely the most improved team in the league. Colorado got better where they were strong (defense) and weaker where they were weak (offense), and while Minnesota still has Ryan Benesch, Callum Crawford, and an excellent goaltender tandem, they’re essentially in rebuilding mode.

Major Awards

MVP: Dan Dawson. I think he has the talent to turn Philly’s offense around and win his second MVP title. I also seriously considered Stephan Leblanc.

Goaltender of the Year: Mike Thompson

Defensive Player of the Year: Kyle Rubisch

Transition Player of the Year: Paul Rabil

Rookie of the Year: Kevin Crowley. Not exactly a go-out-on-a-limb pick, but he was chosen first overall for a reason, and will fit in nicely with the other giants on the Philly offense: Dawson and Westervelt.

GM of the Year: Derek Keenan for overhauling the Rush and turning them from last place in the west to serious contender.

Les Bartley Award: Darris Kilgour because he’s been one of the top coaches in the league for a decade and has only won the award once.

NLL West 2012 season preview

Posted on by

Today we continue our preview of the 2012 season. Earlier we looked at the East division so today we’ll take a look at the West.

Calgary Roughnecks

Biggest personnel change: Shawn Evans

Comments: The biggest question about the 2011 Roughnecks is: was it a fluke? Was it a case of a bunch of players all having career years at the same time? Will they all play at their level in 2012 rather than above it and drop from first in the league to middle of the pack? Stephen Stamp of ILIndoor says no, and makes a good argument. Adding Shawn Evans to an offense of Shattler, Toth, Dobbie, Dickson, and Ranger will make life difficult for people like Aaron Bold, Chris Levis, and Tyler Richards. And speaking of goalies, Mike Poulin and Nick Rose make a great one-two punch for the Necks. Too bad about Geoff Snider, though. Once the best face-off man in the league, last year he wasn’t even the best face-off man in his own family. OK, so that’s a touch misleading. He was second in the league with 70.6%, a half of a percentage point behind his brother Bob (71.1%) and almost nine percentage points ahead of third place (Brandon Francis of the Bandits at 62%). Still pretty impressive.

Prediction: First

Colorado Mammoth

Biggest personnel change: Brian Langtry

Comments: There were a fair number of changes in Colorado this off-season, most notably the retirement of Brian Langtry and the trading of Dan Carey. But most of the moves Colorado made involved acquiring defenders: Ryan Hotaling (who has since chosen to play in the NALL), John Orsen, Creighton Reid, Rory Smith, and Jon Sullivan. Who’s going to score? Even if Grant and Prout have great seasons, it may not matter – look at last year’s Swarm. Ryan Benesch led the league with 95 points, Callum Crawford added 70, and six other players had more than 20 points, but the team finished 8-8. Grant and Prout had 83 and 60 points respectively, but after that there is only one returning player (Alex Gajic, who may begin the season on the IR list) and one new guy (Sean Pollock) with more than 17 points. Joel Dalgarno averaged over 3 points a game since coming over from Washington mid-season, but he will not be playing in 2012. You may have a good goaltender and a great defense and only give up 8 goals a game, but if you can only score 6, I’m afraid the math says you’re going to lose.

Prediction: Fourth

Edmonton Rush

Biggest personnel change: Athan Iannucci

Comments: Wow. It was hard to pick only one name to put as the biggest personnel change. Shawn Williams is a fourteen-year veteran in the league, Kyle Rubisch was a strong Rookie of the Year candidate last year and is already one of the best defenders in the league, Aaron Wilson is also a proven goal scorer, and Aaron Bold is ready to be a #1 goaltender in the NLL, but Iannucci raises the most eyebrows after his MVP record-setting season in 2008.

As of now, Iannucci has not signed with the Rush, so I reserve the right to change my prediction if he ends up sitting out or being traded. Actually, I reserve the right to change my predictions anytime I want for any reason, or for no reason at all. That’s just the way I roll.

Prediction: Third

Minnesota Swarm

Biggest personnel change: Anthony Cosmo Aaron Wilson

Comments: In four deals, the Swarm traded away Aaron Wilson, Ryan Cousins, Kevin Croswell, Jon Sullivan, Rory Smith, Sean Pollock, Nick Inch, and Mat Giles, all of whom played for the Swarm last year, plus Josh Sanderson who didn’t, and one draft pick. In return, they got Jeff Gilbert, Greg Downing, a cardboard cut-out of Anthony Cosmo, and six draft picks. Three of those picks have already turned into players, and between those three acquired picks plus the ones they already had, three draftees (Jordan MacIntosh, Evan Kirk, and Corbyn Tao) will begin the season on the Swarm roster.

The Swarm have Nick Patterson and Kirk in net, so even if Cosmo never dons a Swarm jersey their goaltending situation is fine. I was tempted to put former captain Ryan Cousins as the biggest change, but he’s only played in 14 games over the last two years; Wilson played in all 32 and scored over 140 points. The Swarm have the same problem as the Knighthawks – they’re very young. But with that many players traded away for picks, the Swarm may have to play more of their young kids than they’d like just to have enough warm bodies on the floor. Are they going to totally suck this year? No, but they might be in a similar position as the Knighthawks – not great this year, but pretty good next year and continuing to get better after that.

Prediction: Fifth

Washington Stealth

Biggest personnel change: Luke Wiles

Comments: They traded Wiles to Buffalo but they also had the best offense in the league last year so they can afford to lose a little. That said, Jeff Zywicki only played in 3 regular season games last year, but should be healthy for 2012 so his presence should help offset the loss of Wiles. Their defense wasn’t as strong, so the addition of Kyle Ross is big for the Stealth. They also lost their backup goalie but with the play of Tyler Richards last season, Roik was likely to see fewer and fewer minutes anyway. It does mean that the Stealth will likely have a rookie backing up Richards, so they could have a problem if Richards is injured (although rookie Chris Seidel looked pretty impressive in the Stealth/Rock preseason game) but other than that possibility, the Stealth are poised to make a run at a third consecutive Champion’s Cup appearance.

Prediction: Second

NLL East 2012 season preview

Posted on by

The 2012 NLL season is almost upon us, so it’s time to look around the league and see what’s changed. Obviously the loss of the Blazers changed the landscape quite a bit, but there were also some pretty major trades so just about every team has some significant changes from last year. We’ll look at the East division first, and then the West division in an upcoming article.

Buffalo Bandits

Biggest personnel change: Luke Wiles

Comments: Once again this year, not a lot of changes for the Bandits, but the ones they made were pretty significant. The addition of Wiles, former Blazer Kevin Buchanan, and journeyman Mat Giles may turn the Bandits from a very good offensive team to a holy-crap-good offensive team, rivalling the Rock. The trading of Chris Corbeil caught some people off-guard, but the return of Billy Dee Smith helps replace the loss of Corbeil. If Mikey Thompson is as good in net as he has been over the past couple of years, the Bandits will make it tough for the Rock to get out of the East, let alone repeat as Champions.

Bad news for the Bandits defense out of a pre-season practice, as Darryl Gibson will miss 8 weeks with an ankle injury.

Prediction: A close second

Philadelphia Wings

Biggest personnel change: Dan Dawson

Comments: Wings fans who haven’t been keeping up over the off-season are in for a shock when they return to the arena in January. Gone are Athan Iannucci and Ryan Boyle, replaced by Dan Dawson and Brodie Merrill. Former captain Tom Hajek returns after a year in Boston, and the Wings also traded for MLL superstar Ned Crotty who is relatively unfamiliar with the indoor game, only having played 8 NLL games with the Mammoth last year. If all these guys plus first overall draft pick Kevin Crowley can gel with the returning Wings, this could be a very good team, but there’s too much uncertainty for me to rank them any higher.

Prediction: Third

Rochester Knighthawks

Biggest personnel change: Shawn Williams

Comments: Williams played ten seasons for the Knighthawks, serving as their captain for the last two, before being traded to Edmonton. The Knighthawks also traded Shawn Evans to the Roughnecks and in a stunning offseason oversight, didn’t pick up a single guy named Shawn. They did pick up Casey Powell in the Blazers dispersal draft but he’s unlikely to play this year. They also got Ryan Cousins and Kedoh Hill in the Williams trade. For the third straight year, the Knighthawks are looking forward to watching an exciting young rookie they drafted – first it was Sid Smith, then Cody Jamieson, and this year there are two, Stephen Keogh and Johnny Powless. If they both play well, the Knighthawks could be very good. But I have a feeling that without Powell, the Knighthawks are a little young to make a huge splash this year. They have set themselves up nicely for some pretty successful years to come.

Prediction: Fourth

Toronto Rock

Biggest personnel change: Bob Watson

Comments: The retirement of Bob Watson will be huge for the Rock. The Rock have only had one #1 goaltender in the history of the franchise, and Watson was one of the top three goalies in the league pretty much every year of his career. But even if Roik isn’t at that level, he’s a solid goaltender who can play very well when he’s “on”. Many teams are built from the goaltender out, but with the Rock’s defense and especially their offense, I don’t think they need a superstar goalie to be dangerous this year. As long as Roik does a good job, he may not need to be outstanding. That said, he can be outstanding.

The Rock lost a few very good defenders in the offseason, namely Kyle Ross, Jeff Gilbert and a player I really liked, Creighton Reid. But Ryan Sharp is returning after missing almost all of last year with an injury, and Drew Petkoff will hopefully return this year as well. With the addition of Bruce Codd, the Rock defense could be as solid as any. A very good offense only got better with the additions of Dan Carey and Josh Sanderson. Sanderson, Manning, and Doyle were three of the top four scorers in the league in 2005, but that was seven years ago. Manning hasn’t been anywhere near the player he was then, but now the Rock also have Leblanc, Billings, Carey, Biernes, and Rob Hellyer (and Aaron Pascas, but it sounds like he might be missing the season due to work commitments), so there is no shortage of strong offensive threats for Sanderson to pass to.

Prediction: First as long as Roik doesn’t completely defecate in his sleeping apparatus, and I have no real reason to believe he will.

Presenting your 2012 Boston Blazers

Posted on by

With one fewer team in the NLL this season, 23 players who were good enough to play in the NLL last year are now out of work. Could we put together an NLL-calibre team with the players not listed on one of the recently-released 2012 rosters? Let’s have a look.

I started with everyone listed in an Out list on my roster change summary who wasn’t also on an In, Holdout, IR, or PUP list and who hasn’t (to my knowledge) officially retired, added in the former Blazers players who are not on a roster, and then narrowed it down. Note that some of these guys are playing in CLax or the NALL, or are not playing on an NLL team for some other reason (i.e. they were not cut).

Forwards

Ryan Boyle
Craig Conn
Nick Cotter
Pat Maddalena
Connor Martin
Ryan Powell
Jamie Rooney
Brendan Thenhaus

Transition

Brock Boyle
Nick Carlson
Jamison Koesterer
Bobby McBride

Defenders

Scott Ditzell
Kevin Fines
Steve Forsythe
Clay Hill
Travis Irving
Pat Jones
David Morgan
Eric Pacey
Noah Talbot

Goalies

Matt Disher
Matt King

Obviously there’s no Doyle / Grant / Dawson type superstar players, but that looks to me like a pretty good lineup. A decent offense, lots of experience on the back end and in transition, a great face-off guy, and two goalies named Matt. These guys aren’t going to be challenging for the Cup this year, but there have been real NLL teams (Cobras, Rebel, Smash, early Rush) that won fewer games than this group would.

Update: Alex Turner should be on this team as well. Not sure how I missed him. If I had to replace one of the forwards with Turner, it’d probably be Maddalena or Martin.

NLL 2012 rosters: Who’s in, who’s out

Posted on by

Here is a complete list of the changes in rosters from the end of the 2011 season to the roster lists just announced. Players on the Holdout, Physically Unable to Perform (PUP), or Injured Reserve (IR) lists may be moved to the active roster before the season begins.

Names for each list are in alphabetical order.

Buffalo Bandits

In: Kevin Buchanan, Jeff Cornwall, Mat Giles, Billy Dee Smith (returning from injury), Kyle Sweeney, Jeremy Thompson, Luke Wiles
Out: Brett Bucktooth, Chris Corbeil, Clay Hill, Travis Irving, Ben McCulloch, Brendan Thenhaus, Jay Thorimbert
IR: Darryl Gibson
PUP: Dwight Bero, Kyle Clancy

Philadelphia Wings

In: Ned Crotty, Kevin Crowley, Dan Dawson, Stephen Fryer, Thomas Hajek, Mike Hominuck, Brodie Merrill, Jordan Sealock
Out: Ryan Boyle, John Christmas, Dan Hardy, Ray Hodgkinson, Steve Holmes, Athan Iannucci, Ryan McClelland, David Mitchell, Shawn Nadelen, Alex Turner, Taylor Wray, Matt Zash
IR: Steve Grossi, Jr.
PUP: Matt Alrich, Steve Holmes

Rochester Knighthawks

In: Jake Henhawk, Kedoh Hill, Travis Hill, Stephen Keogh, Mike Kirk, Johnny Powless, Brad Self, Joel White
Out: Aaron Bold, Scott Ditzell, Chris Driscoll, Shawn Evans, Kevin Fines, Gary Gait, Chandon Hill, Cody Johnson, Ian Rubel, Josh Ruys, Holdon Vyse, Shawn Williams
IR: Craig Point
PUP: Ryan Cousins, Andy Secore
Holdout: Troy Bonterre, Joel McCready, Casey Powell, Jack Reid

Toronto Rock

In: Dan Carey, Bruce Codd, Jesse Gamble, Bill Greer, Pete Rennie, Matt Roik, Josh Sanderson, Ryan Sharp (returning from injury)
Out: Jeff Gilbert, Mat MacLeod, Pat Maddalena, Tim O’Brien, Creighton Reid, Kyle Ross, Bob Watson
IR: Drew Petkoff
Holdout: Nick Inch, Aaron Pascas

Calgary Roughnecks

In: Travis Cornwall, Shawn Evans, Geoff McNulty, Nick Rose, Frankie Scigliano
Out: Bruce Codd, Derek Hopcroft, Brandon Ivey, Curtis Palidwor, Mark Scherman, Jordon Sealock, Joe Vetere, Devan Wray
PUP: Dayne Michaud, Kaleb Toth
Holdout: Brock Armour, Rob Van Beek, Alex Jones

Colorado Mammoth

In: Tye Belanger, Dan Coates, Cameron Holding, Derek Hopcroft, Adam Jones, Dan Lewis, Jamie Lincoln, Mat MacLeod, Jordan McBride, John Orsen, Sean Pollock, Creighton Reid, Rory Smith, Scott Stewart, Jon Sullivan
Out: Tim Campeau, Dan Carey, Nick Carlson, Ned Crotty, Ben Davies, Tom Ethington, Jamie Floris, Steve Forsythe, Nenad Gajic, Jason Jones, Matt King, Brian Langtry, Connor Martin, Brad Richardson, Steve Toll
PUP: Mac Allen, Alex Gajic, Ian Hawksbee
Holdout: Joel Dalgarno
Reports say that Hawksbee will be ready to play by the time the season starts, but Dalgarno is out for the year due to job commitments.

Edmonton Rush

In: Aaron Bold, Chris Corbeil, Kevin Croswell, Ryan Dilks, Jesse Fehr, Tom Johnson, Eric Lewthwaite, Brodie MacDonald, Kyle Rubisch, Shawn Williams, Aaron Wilson
Out: Brendan Atherton, Rob Blasdell, Matt Disher, Bill Greer, Dean Hill, Kedoh Hill, Pat Jones, Bobby McBride, Mike McLellan, Brodie Merrill, David Morgan, Bruce Murray, Andy Secore, Scott Stewart, Kyle Sweeney
Holdout: Athan Iannucci, Dane Stevens

Minnesota Swarm

In: Mitch Belisle, Nik Bilic, Jay Card, Tyler Carlson, Brendon Doran, Greg Downing, Jeff Gilbert, Joel Henry, Evan Kirk, Jordan MacIntosh, Corbyn Tao
Out: Shayne Bennett, Brock Boyle, Ryan Cousins, Kevin Croswell, Mat Giles, Travis Hill, Nick Inch, Eric Pacey, Sean Pollock, Rory Smith, Jon Sullivan, Noah Talbot, Aaron Wilson
Holdout: Anthony Cosmo

Washington Stealth

In: Nenad Gajic, Brett Hickey, Dean Hill, Kyle Ross, Chris Seidel
Out: Craig Conn, Martin Cummings, Tom Johnson, Jamison Koesterer, Kory Kowalyk, Peter Morgan, Matt Roik, Luke Wiles

PUP: Nenad Gajic