Category Archives: Rochester Knighthawks

Week 17 picks

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So this is it, the last week. I’m way under .500; best I can do is 32-40, but I could also end up 28-44. Yet another .500 week would put me at 30-42. Still, that’s not too much worse than some of the IL Indoor guys, and depending on this week’s games, it might even be better than some of them. But remember when we start the playoffs, we’re all tied at 0-0…

Record: 28-40 (.412)

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TOR @ EDM Toronto is playing for home floor advantage while Edmonton can’t change their playoff position. Nick Rose had a bad outing against the Mammoth but rebounded and played pretty well against the Stealth last weekend. Edmonton has the lowest-scoring offense in the league, so this might be another opportunity for Rose to bump his confidence going into the playoffs. That said, the Rush beat the Mammoth last weekend so maybe let’s not count our chickens and all that. Rock
COL @ MIN Apparently Gavin Prout will miss this weekend, although the Mammoth said that about John Grant after the weekend he missed and he played anyway. The biggest question of this game is: will it be Evan Kirk or Tyler Carlson that gives up John Grant’s 116th point of the year? Or will they say “Sorry, Mr. Grant, not on my watch”? Given the season Grant’s had, that would be rather surprising, but surprising things just keep happening in the NLL this season. Mammoth
PHI @ ROC I really wanted to pick Philly just because I can’t imagine them going into the playoffs on a five-game losing streak. But I couldn’t imagine the Bandits going on a six-game losing streak, or the Stealth missing the playoffs, or the Mammoth going from 5-11 to 11-4 in one year, or… The Knighthawks have owned the Wings this year, going 2-0 with a combined score of 33-20. Knighthawks
BUF @ WAS I know, I know, I said I was done with the Bandits, but holy crap, Anthony Cosmo was great last weekend. And the one before. The Stealth are playing for exactly nothing while the Bandits are shaping up for the playoffs. Bandits

Previous weeks:

Week 1 – 0-1
Week 2 – 2-2
Week 3 – 2-2
Week 4 – 2-4
Week 5 – 2-2
Week 6 – 1-3
Week 7 – 2-2
Week 8 – 1-3
Week 9 – 2-2
Week 10 – 2-4
Week 11 – 1-2
Week 12 – 1-5
Week 13 – 5-0
Week 14 – 2-2
Week 15 – 0-4
Week 16 – 3-2

Defense wins championships – or does it?

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Offense wins games. Defense wins championships.

I’ve heard that quote in relation to lacrosse, football, and basketball, and it’s probably been applied in other sports as well. I know that a lot of Toronto Rock fans from the early 2000’s believed it, but is it generally true? Let’s take a look at the NLL Champions from 1987 to 2011, covering 25 seasons. Don’t worry, this isn’t nearly the propeller-head stats-fest that my article on back-to-back games was.

I went through each Championship team and calculated their rank in the league that year in terms of both goals scored and goals against. Just so we’re clear, “first” in goals scored is the highest amount, while “first” in goals against is the lowest. That’s fairly basic and obvious stuff, but I wanted to spell it out to avoid any misunderstandings. I’m going to ignore the absolute value of goals for and against, mainly because a different number of games were played in different seasons. Using the rank rather than the value factors that out, as well as other differences like rule changes. I’ll look at goal scoring trends in the NLL in a future article.

The “rank” I’m using for a given team is “1 plus the number of teams that are ahead of the team in question”. So if two teams scored more goals than the team I’m looking at, they are ranked third. If another team scored the same number of goals, then the team I’m looking at was actually tied for third, but I’m ignoring that – tied or not, they still had the third-highest total.

Before we get to the general trends, here are the extremes. In the 25 years of the NLL, only once has the Championship winner been both #1 in goals scored and #1 in goals against – the 1994 Philadelphia Wings. At the other end of the spectrum, the 2003 Rock were ninth in goals scored (they scored 36 fewer goals than the #1 Bandits that year), but first in goals against. The 2007 Knighthawks were the exact opposite – first in goals scored (scoring 30 more goals than anyone else) but ninth in goals against.

If defense wins championships, then it stands to reason that most Championship teams would rank higher in goals against than they would in goals scored. But we don’t find that to be the case. Out of 25 seasons, 12 of the Champions (or 48%) ranked first in the league in goals scored, but only 8 (32%) ranked first in goals against. The average rank for goals scored is 2.6 while the average rank for goals against is 3.1. This means that on average, the Championship team is closer to the top of the league in goals scored than they are in goals against, i.e. most Championship teams are better offensively than they are defensively. Defense does not win championships.

But there was a period where it did. From 1998 to 2003, the Rock won four titles and the Wings won two. Only one of those teams – the 2001 Wings – was not first in the league in goals against, and only those same Wings were as high as third in goals scored. The Rock Championship teams in 1999-2000 and 2002-2003 were 5th, 6th, 7th, and 9th respectively in goals scored. But before that period, the top defensive team had only won the Championship once, the 1994 Wings, and it’s only happened once since, the 2009 Roughnecks. On the other hand, from 1988 to 1996, every Champion except one (the 1990 Wings) was first in goals scored. It didn’t happen again until the 2005 Rock, but then it happened in five of the next seven years.

Here’s a graph of the ranks of the Championship teams in both goals scored (blue) and goals against (red). Notice how the blue line stays low until about 1997, then jumps up for a few years before dropping back down again. At the same time, the red line is higher during the 90’s, then drops down to the bottom while the blue line is high, then grows again when the blue one drops. That inversion was the Les Bartley era in Toronto.

GF-GA

Generally, the NLL Champions have been better offensively than defensively. But as we’ve seen, from about 1998 to 2003, that trend was reversed. Of those six seasons, the Toronto Rock under Les Bartley won four Championships – and lost a fifth to the Wings in a low-scoring defensive game. This is one reason Bartley was so well-respected – not only because he led the Bandits to the only undefeated season in NLL history, but because he bucked the trend and built a team that was a defensive powerhouse rather than offensive, and was exceptionally successful doing it.

This is not to say that you don’t need a good defense to win, of course you do. And it’s not to say that you can’t win with a great defense and adequate offense. It’s just happened far more often in the past the other way around.

Week 16 picks

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Two weeks ago, I went undefeated. This past weekend, I was nothing but defeated. Another 0-fer weekend, though it is only my second, and the first was only one game. But still. It’s no longer possible for me to finish at or above .500 on the season; the best I can do is 4 games under, and that’s if I win out.

Record: 25-38 (.397)

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EDM @ COL I had a bad feeling picking the Rock over the Mammoth last week. It’s like the “Rock fan” part of my brain kept yelling “Go Rock Go! We can do it!” and some of the “unbiased blogger” part said “The Rock do have the talent to beat anyone, and Nick Rose played really well in his first 3 starts, sure they could do it!” But there was another part yelling from the other room “HELLO?! John Grant – does that name ring a bell? Levis? Prout? Jones? Allen? Ten wins?” Should have listened to that guy. This week he’s yelling even louder. Mammoth
TOR @ WAS Nobody knows what to make of Washington. I keep hearing (and I agree) that they have too much talent to be losing this often, but it’s no longer a couple of bad games in row. They’re 4-10 and still in dead last. And yes, one of those four wins was a convincing victory against the Rock. But the Rock were without Blaine Manning and Colin Doyle and had Matt Roik in net. They’re a different team now. Rock
ROC @ BUF I’ve given up on the Bandits this year. During their six-game losing streak, I decided they’d have to show me that they could play good lacrosse before I’d pick them again. Then they did, and so I picked them again. And then they sucked again and I went back to not picking them. And then they kicked Philadelphia’s butt and I picked them against the Rush. But then they lost again. I can’t figure these guys out at all. I’m done. Knighthawks
CAL @ EDM Sorry Rush, you’re in for a rough weekend. First the Mammoth on Friday and then the Roughnecks on Saturday. The two best teams in the league on back-to-back days. Part of me thinks that after getting beaten by the Mammoth on Friday night, the Rush will be even more motivated to beat the Roughnecks in Edmonton. But then there’s that guy in the other room yelling “HELLO?! Shattler? Dickson? Ranger? Eleven wins?” If Mike Poulin returns to the net, this game is Calgary’s to lose. If he’s still out, the Rush could pull off the upset, but again I have to play the odds. Roughnecks
PHI @ MIN The Swarm went through a four-game losing streak in the middle of the season, including losing to the lowly Bandits and getting blown away by the Stealth. But they’ve rebounded nicely and have won two in a row, one of which was over these same Philadelphia Wings. The Wings, on the other hand, have lost three in a row with a stinker against the Bandits two weeks ago. The fact that the Swarm have already clinched a playoff spot will boost their confidence, and having Ryan Benesch back will boost them even further. Swarm

Previous weeks:

Week 1 – 0-1
Week 2 – 2-2
Week 3 – 2-2
Week 4 – 2-4
Week 5 – 2-2
Week 6 – 1-3
Week 7 – 2-2
Week 8 – 1-3
Week 9 – 2-2
Week 10 – 2-4
Week 11 – 1-2
Week 12 – 1-5
Week 13 – 5-0
Week 14 – 2-2
Week 15 – 0-4

Week 15 Picks

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I had it. I freaking had it. I originally picked Minnesota to beat the Wings last week, and then realized that Ryan Benesch was still hurt, and I changed my pick. I was all ready for a last minute “Benesch is in the lineup after all!” win by Minnesota, and what happened? The Swarm still won without Benny. I guess the Swarm found my lack of faith disturbing. I have paid the price for my lack of vision.

Of course, what are the odds that someone took a screen shot of my picks from last week and timestamped it, showing the way the page was at game time? I could easily change and re-publish the article, then claim that I changed it back before the games. But I won’t do that. Damn you, integrity, damn you all to hell. You’re always getting in the way.

All four games this week are brutal. There isn’t a single game this week that’s even close to an easy pick. I thought Calgary over Rochester was a relatively easy one last week, but Rochester made it close which makes their rematch this week in Rochester tougher to pick. Toronto and Colorado are both near the top of their divisions, while the games in Edmonton and Minnesota involve four teams fighting for a playoff spot.

Record: 25-34 (.424)

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TOR @ COL This will be a tough game for both teams, no question. With Grant on one side and Billings on the other, don’t expect a 8-7 final. This will be the first real test for Nick Rose as a starter. But the Rock are healthy, firing on all cylinders, and have tons of confidence. When they play like that, the defending champs can beat anybody. Rock
BUF @ EDM I have no idea what to do about Bandits games. They either play really well or really badly, but Cosmo’s performance last weekend (and that of the whole team) has to give them some confidence. They held Philly to only 7 goals, and Philly has a better offense than Edmonton. Edmonton has a better defense than the Wings, but Buffalo shouldn’t need 17 goals to win. Bandits
WAS @ MIN I waffled on this one the most. In their last 6 games or so, the Stealth have been playing a lot more like I expected them to at the beginning of the year. They kicked the Swarm all over the place a couple of weeks ago, and lost a close one to the Roughnecks the week after. I’ve only picked Minnesota in 3 games this year, but they have yet to win when I pick them. Sorry Swarm. Stealth
CAL @ ROC As I said, a much harder pick this week based on last week’s game between these two, but I still think Calgary’s #1 in the league so I gotta go with them. Roughnecks

Previous weeks:

Week 1 – 0-1
Week 2 – 2-2
Week 3 – 2-2
Week 4 – 2-4
Week 5 – 2-2
Week 6 – 1-3
Week 7 – 2-2
Week 8 – 1-3
Week 9 – 2-2
Week 10 – 2-4
Week 11 – 1-2
Week 12 – 1-5
Week 13 – 5-0
Week 14 – 2-2

What you need to know to win in the playoffs

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Only one team can win the Championship and given both the parity in the NLL this year and the one-and-done playoff format, it’s possible for anyone who makes the playoffs to win it all. So far, nobody has been eliminated from the playoff race, and it’s looking more and more like that outcome won’t be decided until the final weekend. Every team has their strengths and weaknesses, and opposing teams will be focussing on how they can exploit those weaknesses. What will it take for each team to reach the pinnacle of the NLL, and what will it take to shut each team down?

Calgary Roughnecks

The Roughnecks have to make sure their offense isn’t neutralized by a tough defense. Because all you have to do to be successful against the ‘Necks is shut down Shattler and Ranger and Dickson and Veltman and Evans and Dobbie and Conway and Toth and Snider and Cornwall. Once you’ve done that, all you have to do is score a bunch of goals on the best defense in the league and you’re golden.

Colorado Mammoth

Obviously, this year’s MVP favourite John Grant needs to be the focus for opposing teams. The Mammoth have proven that they can win without him but in the playoffs, his presence is vital. This is, of course, assuming that he’s not out rescuing kittens from trees, reducing crime in the greater Denver area, performing delicate life-saving surgery, or leaping tall buildings in a single bound.

Edmonton Rush

If you’re defending against the Rush in the playoffs, get near the Rush player with the ball. Then remind him that he plays for a team based in the “City of Champions” and as such, he has a high standard to uphold. His uncontrollable laughter should allow you to strip the ball from him for a quick transition chance.

Minnesota Swarm

Many people picked the Swarm to miss the playoffs because of all the unproven rookies on the team, but those rookies have played better than anyone expected. Now they have to see if they can handle the pressures of the NLL playoffs. But first they have to get their social studies homework finished and get some work done on those science fair projects. Good thing the games don’t happen on school nights.

Washington Stealth

Whispering “Bruce Urban” when standing close to Athan Iannucci should get him rattled and reduce his effectiveness. Also, if the game goes to overtime, pretty much your only chance is to go all Tonya Harding on Rhys Duch.

Buffalo Bandits

John Tavares is 43, and so this may be his last season in the NLL. I’m sure his teammates would love to see him go out the way Bob Watson did, winning a Championship in his last game, so they’ll be playing extra hard for JT. Of course, many people have wondered “Is this Tavares’ last season?” for about five years now, and the way he played this year, the pressure to win now “for JT” is reduced. They might consider “win now for Darris”. Actually, they might want to think about “Win now for everyone but JT” because if they don’t win this year, he may be the only current Bandit left on the roster next season.

Philadelphia Wings

Shutting down the strong right side of the Wings’ offense is the key to beating the Wings, so you need to send your biggest, strongest defenders out against them. When they’re facing the likes of Crowley, Dawson, and Westervelt, have your defenders just pound on their kneecaps until they fall down, then tie them to the ground with ropes.

Rochester Knighthawks

The Knighthawks have five players listed at 175 pounds or less. Kedoh Hill is listed at just 150. Mounting a strong fan behind your goalie should keep them from getting in too close, but NLL regulations may prevent that. Just get out there and use your body against them, they should be easy to push around. Unless you get too close to Sid Smith or Craig Point or, God forbid, Tim O’Brien. Note: if using this strategy, stay the hell away from Jake Henhawk.

Toronto Rock

I know I’m a Rock fan, but I’m going to be completely objective here. The key to shutting the Rock down is Stephen Leblanc. He was the 2010 Rookie of the Year and also had a great 2011 campaign, and if John Grant wasn’t having such a great season, who knows how many MVP votes Leblanc might have gotten this year. He’s the real backbone of the Rock offense, and all opposing defenders should really focus on him and ignore everyone else. Especially Doyle. And Billings – totally leave him open alone.

Week 14 picks

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Wow. A week after saying “Do I ever suck at this game prediction thing”, I had my first above-.500 weekend of the season, a 5-0 sweep. I checked each game with my predictions several times to be sure. So reaching .500 on the season is still possible, and I only have to go 13-4 the rest of the way to do it!

But let’s not get ahead of ourselves here. I just gotta take it one game at a time. While I’m at it, I’ll give it 110%, step up my play, and make sure bring my A-game because you know there’s no I in team!

Record: 23-32 (.418)

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ROC @ CAL Calgary is now the #1 team in the league, and they are fighting for home field advantage throughout the playoffs. Rochester could still miss the playoffs, but they are in less danger of that than the Bandits, Rush, or Stealth. Going with the ‘Necks here. Calgary is just too strong. Roughnecks
MIN @ PHI I had a really tough time on this one. In fact I originally posted this article with the Swarm logo in this spot. But I was then reminded about Ryan Benesch’s injury – he missed last weekend’s games with a concussion and I somehow forgot that. My original prediction said that “I imagine Evan Kirk will be starting … and he’s been simply awesome this year” which is true but without Benesch, the Swarm will have a tougher time getting by the strong defense of the Wings. Wings
PHI @ BUF As always, it depends which Bandits team shows up. If it’s the one that pounded the Rock a couple of weeks ago, then they can beat Philly. But if it’s the one that we’ve seen more often than not this year, this should be an easy win for the Wings. Wings
EDM @ TOR The Rush have never won in Toronto, and have been struggling to find offense all season while the Rock seem to have found a groove and have won two straight. Rock

Previous weeks:

Week 1 – 0-1
Week 2 – 2-2
Week 3 – 2-2
Week 4 – 2-4
Week 5 – 2-2
Week 6 – 1-3
Week 7 – 2-2
Week 8 – 1-3
Week 9 – 2-2
Week 10 – 2-4
Week 11 – 1-2
Week 12 – 1-5
Week 13 – 5-0

Week 13 picks

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Wow. Do I ever suck at this game prediction thing. 1-5 last week, and I’m now getting to the point where if I get every pick for the rest of the season right, I might end up at .500. Just did the math: including the five this weekend, there are 22 games left in the season. To end up at or above .500 (i.e. the same odds as flipping a coin for each game), I have to go 18-4 from now on. Here we go.

Record: 18-32 (.360)

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CAL @ MIN I know Minnesota beat them a couple of weeks ago, but I still think Calgary is the top team in the league. It was just announced that Ryan Benesch will miss this weekend’s games with a concussion, so that won’t help the Swarm. This is why I usually wait until Friday to post my picks. (Because it’s made soooo much difference thus far.) Roughnecks
TOR @ BUF The Bandits will be pissed after last week, but they’ve been pissed most of the season and it’s done them no good. Yeah, they wiped the floor with the Rock a couple of weeks ago, but the Rock played much better the next week while the Bandits played much worse. The Bandits are over .500 (9-6) lifetime in Toronto, while the Rock are way over .500 (6-12) in Buffalo. Rock
WAS @ CAL Washington has definitely improved in recent weeks, but as determined as they are to make the playoffs, the Roughnecks are just as determined to finish first overall, and a couple of wins this weekend are what’s required to get in front of Colorado. I also know (thanks to an upcoming article) that when a team plays an away game followed by a home game in the same weekend, the most likely scenario is that they sweep both games. Playin’ the odds. Roughnecks
MIN @ EDM Edmonton is a better team than their record indicates and while the Swarm are still a good team without Benesch, I think the Rush will look at this as a golden opportunity to move up and try to get out of last place. Rush
COL @ ROC John Grant returns to Rochester. To my knowledge, there are no hard feelings either way – he didn’t demand a trade, nor is he upset with the Knighthawks trading him, and there were no personal issues with ownership or the coach or anything. There’s no reason to believe (a) he’ll be booed by the Knighthawks fans, or (b) he’ll have a chip on his shoulder and something to prove, so I’m not sure it’ll have that big an effect on his play. That and Shewchuk and Mac Allen are both back bodes well for the Mammoth. Mammoth

Previous weeks:

Week 1 – 0-1
Week 2 – 2-2
Week 3 – 2-2
Week 4 – 2-4
Week 5 – 2-2
Week 6 – 1-3
Week 7 – 2-2
Week 8 – 1-3
Week 9 – 2-2
Week 10 – 2-4
Week 11 – 1-2
Week 12 – 1-5

Top 10 surprises from the 2012 NLL season so far (pt. 2)

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In part 1, we covered Steve Toll, Athan Iannucci, Paul Rabil, Tyler Carlson, Evan Kirk, Matt Roik, and Nick Rose, as well as some rule changes. In this article, we’ll cover the top 5 surprises in 2012.

5. John Grant

John Grant being an impact player should not surprise anyone. He’s been an impact player his entire career in the NLL, MLL, MSL, or any other L he’s played in. But I don’t think anyone expected him to be as dominant as he has been this season. Not only is he 37, but he’s only three years removed from missing an entire season because of a serious injury that became life-threatening. He recovered well enough to go out and score 83 points in his last year in Rochester and another 83 in his first year in Colorado. Fine numbers, to be sure, but not Grant-like. In fact, 83 points was Grant’s lowest total (playing a full season) since his rookie year in 2000.

John Grant

Grant is a fierce competitor, so it is no surprise that he’d want to get back to his previous numbers – not because the personal stats are important to him, but because he wants to lead his team to as many wins as possible, and his contribution to that objective is putting up tons of points. Starting the season with 11 points was nice, but following it up with 9 and 10 points was amazing. Nobody thought he could keep up a 10-points-per-game pace, and he hasn’t. But he’s still averaging 8.3 points per game. He has yet to pick up less than 3 goals or 3 assists in a game and his season low for a single game is 7 points. He missed two games with an upper body injury, and then returned with another 7 point performance. Before the injury, he was on pace for 136 points in a season, blowing the old single-season record away by 21 points. In fact, even after missing two games (1/8 of the season), he is still on pace to break the record. Unbelievable.

4. Buffalo’s 6 game losing streak

The Bandits are mostly the same team as last year. They traded Chris Corbeil but got Billy Dee Smith back from injury, and also gained Luke Wiles and Mat Giles. They went 10-6 last year and given the team changes, you wouldn’t expect a huge drop-off this season. Sure enough, they started the season 2-0 with wins against the Rock at home and the Knighthawks on the road. And then it all fell apart. The Bandits lost their next six in a row, something they have never done before in a single season. (They did finish the 1999 season with five losses and missed the playoffs, then started 2000 off with a loss. Similarly, they finished 2009 with two losses and started 2010 with four, but there was a playoff win and loss in between.)

Some of the games were ugly. They managed to shut out Philadelphia for half the second quarter and all of the third, and still lost the game. They lost 19-11 to the Swarm in a game that included a 7-0 third quarter. They lost to the Knighthawks in a game that included a 7-0 second quarter. But there were two one-goal losses in there as well, including an overtime game against the Stealth. Of course, the Stealth were 0-3 at the time and then lost their next three.

Bandits coach and GM Darris Kilgour has a reputation for being fiery and passionate, and I’m sure that during this streak more than a few f-bombs were dropped. But after losing six in a row, the Bandits started their next game against the Rock down 5-1 and losing 11-8 at the half. Did Darris lose his mind and scream and yell like a stereotypical drill sergeant? Not at all. In his IL Indoor interview with Tracey Kelusky, Ty Pilson used the unlikely word “gentle” to describe Kilgour’s reaction. Kelusky said “he just said you guys are sticking with it, you guys aren’t panicking, and that’s something we were doing during that six-game skid… He said we’re playing confident, keep doing that and we’ll have success.” How did that go over with the Bandits? They outscored the Rock 13-3 in the second half and won 21-14. That is solid coaching.

3. This year’s crop of rookies

Every year, one rookie is singled out and given the NLL Rookie of the Year award. And every year, there are arguments that someone else deserved it as well. Last year, Curtis Dickson won it over Cody Jamieson, and in 2010, Stephan Leblanc beat out teammate Garrett Billings. This year, the number of deserving rookies who will not win ROY is crazy. It seems that every team has a rookie who’s having an outstanding season, and some have more than one. In the case of the Minnesota Swarm, you could almost nominate half the team.

There are high-scoring forwards like Crowley, Powless, Jones, Lincoln, and Keogh. There are defenders and transition guys like Gamble, Thompson, MacIntosh, and Cornwall. And there are goaltenders like Kirk, Carlson, and Scigliano. At this point in the season, the race is likely between Crowley and Jones, but all of these guys have played well so far and with a few strong games to finish the season, any one of them could find themselves in the ROY race. I don’t remember another season with such a strong group of rookies – not just in terms of how good they are, but in terms of how many good ones there are.

2. Colorado starting 6-0 and 8-1

Maybe others saw this coming, but I certainly didn’t. This is related to #5 above, the amazing play of John Grant, but even if you thought he’d have a good season, did you foresee Adam Jones being so good? And the defense playing well even without Mac Allen? And Gavin Prout playing so well? And Chris Levis? And Sean Pollock and Jamie Lincoln and Jordan McBride and Derek Hopcroft and Ian Hawksbee and Rory Smith and Creighton Reid and Ilija Gajic and…? Honestly, none of those things individually is an absolute shock but the fact that they all happened at the same time has resulted in the Mammoth being the best team in the league, which is a distinction they haven’t been anywhere near for years. The Mammoth only won 5 games in 2011, and managed to match that total in 2012 after… 5 games. They have a very good chance of doubling their win total from last year.

The team is quite different from last year – Mac Allen is out with an injury, Steve Toll retired (temporarily – see #10 on this list) as did Brian Langtry, Joel Dalgarno is out for the year because of work commitments, Ned Crotty and Dan Carey were traded, and Connor Martin was released. Instead, we have Adam Jones, Jordan McBride, Jamie Lincoln, Jon Sullivan, Rory Smith, Sean Pollock, Mat MacLeod, Creighton Reid, and Derek Hopcroft. Is the fact that a team with this many changes has gelled as well as they have a testament to good coaching by Bob Hamley, or Gavin Prout becoming captain, or some combination of both? I’m sure Mammoth fans don’t care, but they’re certainly enjoying the ride.

1. Washington starting 1-6

It was surprising that a bad team would retool and instantly become a great team, but it’s even more surprising that a great team would make very few changes over the off-season and become a lousy team. And that’s what the Stealth looked like for the first seven games of the 2012 season. They won an overtime squeaker against the also-struggling Buffalo Bandits, but lost to the Roughnecks twice, the Wings, the Knighthawks, and the Swarm, and they got smoked by the Edmonton Rush 16-5 in their own arena.

Rhys Duch

Sure, they lost Jeff Zywicki to injury early in the year, but he only played three games last year anyway. They traded Matt Roik but Tyler Richards played more than twice as many minutes as Roik did in 2011. Richards and Rhys Duch got injured as well, but not until the Stealth were 1-5. They did lose Luke Wiles, who’s tearing up the turf in Buffalo, and didn’t really replace him, so that’s something. But Duch and Ratcliff couldn’t find the back of the net, and Richards had a worse GAA than every starting goalie in the league and several backups.

The Stealth have been struggling with low attendance despite two consecutive Champion’s Cup appearances; the highest Washington crowd this year, 4687, is 600 less than the lowest crowd anywhere else (5267 in Rochester). Maybe you could use that fact to argue that winning and losing has no bearing on attendance in Washington so it doesn’t matter if they win or lose. But I doubt it. And I doubt the players are OK with losing if it doesn’t affect the crowds.

Part, maybe even most, of the problem was the absence of head coach Chris Hall. CH was the heart and soul of the Stealth, but our old nemesis cancer raised its ugly head once again, this time in the form of throat cancer, and Hall had to stay away from the arena to concentrate on his treatment and recovery. Thankfully, it seems that Hall has won this battle, and after missing the first six games of the season he returned cancer-free to the bench. The Stealth lost their first game after his return, but have won two of three since then.

Week 12 picks

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The Bandits are back! After I said last week that I wouldn’t be picking the Bandits until they proved they “are worthy of a pick”, they proved just that. Obviously my statement was the straw that broke the camel’s back, the thing that finally kept them going during the games and got them to play as well as we thought they would at the beginning of the year. Similarly, right after I said I wouldn’t pick the Stealth until they started winning, they started winning. Post hoc ergo propter hoc.

So I ended up 0-2 on Bandits games. At least I got the Philly / Edmonton game right, though not by much. Six games this weekend, so let’s get to them.

Record: 17-27 (.386)

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Comments

Pick
PHI @ COL Now that the Mammoth don’t suck anymore, the Pepsi Center is a tough place for visitors to win again. John Grant will not be back this weekend, though my prediction of the Mammoth offense not being as good without him didn’t really come true. They really stepped up last weekend in his absence, and I see no reason why they couldn’t do it again, though the Philly defense has been really solid lately. Mammoth
BUF @ CAL Before last weekend, this would be a no-brainer, but with Buffalo playing so well last weekend, it’s a tougher now. Buffalo may be confident enough now that they can just keep rolling, but this one comes down to goaltending. I think Thompson at his best is better than Poulin at his best, but average Poulin beats average Thompson. If Cosmo plays as he can, he may be the best in the league but he still seems to be shaking off rust. Roughnecks
WAS @ EDM The Stealth have been looking more like the Stealth we expected over the last few weeks. They split with the Mammoth two weeks ago but even in the loss they looked pretty good against a team that was 7-1 at the time. If Paul Rabil announces he will actually suit up for the Rush I may change my pick, but I don’t see that happening. Stealth
TOR @ ROC The Rock are 3-17 lifetime in Rochester, but of course one of those thee was the Championship game in 2003. The other two wins came last season, so I think it’s safe to say the home-and-home curse between these two teams is over. The Rock will be breaking in new starting goalie Nick Rose and hoping to end their three-game losing streak, while the Knighthawks are looking to continue both their two-game winning streak and their three-game home winning streak. The Rock are my team and I hate betting against them, but they just haven’t impressed me at all over the last three games. Knighthawks
COL @ PHI This was my toughie of the week. Colorado certainly has the talent to sweep the Wings, but Philly has been getting better and better as the season has progressed. Philly’s first in the east though they’re not having the dominant season the Mammoth are having. The fact that John Grant is missing will help the Wings, but as I said above the Mammoth offense managed just fine without him two weeks ago. If one team sweeps this series, they will undoubtedly be the #1 team in the league, but I foresee a split. Wings
MIN @ WAS The Swarm are impressing me more and more, and they’ll be fresh while the Stealth will have played the night before and travelled from Edmonton. Certainly not a guarantee (both Colorado and Calgary have won the second game of back-to-back games this year), but I’ll go with the Swarm’s young legs on this one. Swarm

Previous weeks:

Week 1 – 0-1
Week 2 – 2-2
Week 3 – 2-2
Week 4 – 2-4
Week 5 – 2-2
Week 6 – 1-3
Week 7 – 2-2
Week 8 – 1-3
Week 9 – 2-2
Week 10 – 2-4
Week 11 – 1-2

Week 10 picks

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And my streak continues. Other than week 1 which only consisted of a single game, I am 2-2 in every odd numbered week, and .500 or lower in every even numbered week. The last five weeks have alternated between 2-2 and 1-3, and that will end this week since there are six games.
John Grant will not be playing in Colorado’s two games this weekend, which may or may not make the picks in the Colorado games easier. After all, Rochester lost five players (including their top scorer) for one week and won, then lost when those players returned. I have said at least twice this season that Colorado’s offense was based mainly around Grant and if he were to get injured or started slumping, they wouldn’t be able to recover as well as other teams with more balanced offense. Now we’ll see how prescient those statements were.
Record: 14-21 (.400)

Game
Comments
Pick
CAL @ EDM Edmonton is a better team than their record indicates. If their offense can start clicking, their defense is good enough to make them contenders. But that has to start happening pretty soon, or it might be too late.  They’ve only had two home games, but they beat Philly last weekend at home, and they’ll be motivated to put on a good show for their Twitter jersey game. Rush
PHI @ TOR The Rock’s last four games were: two blowouts against Philly (one in each direction), then a convincing win against a good team (Rochester), and a humiliating loss against a bad team (Washington). Depending on which Rock team shows up this weekend, it could be good or it could be very bad for them. Philly’s on a two-game losing streak, but first place and the season series is on the line, so expect a hard-fought game. Rock
EDM @ CAL Yeah, the post-All-Star-game Rush will be better than the pre-All-Star-game Rush, but sweeping the Roughnecks? Not there yet. Roughnecks
WAS @ COL OMG look at me picking Washington. A couple of weeks ago this would have been a no-brainer: Colorado sweeps the Stealth, with the over-under on the weekend goal differential around 15. But since then the Mammoth have proved that they are beatable, and the Stealth have proved that there is indeed a good lacrosse team buried under there somewhere. The Stealth’s fortunes will continue – for one game, anyway. I actually made this pick before it was announced that Grant would be out, but I’m a little more confident in it now. Stealth
BUF @ ROC Buffalo can’t lose six in a row, can they? Well, I also thought they couldn’t lose three in a row, or four, or five. I expect Cosmo to have a better game as he shakes off more rust, but the Knighthawks are getting great production out of Cody Jamieson and great leadership and production out of Mike Accursi, and Matt Vinc had a great game against Philly. Hawks in a close one. Knighthawks
COL @ WAS Yeah, the post-All-Star-game Stealth will be better than the pre-All-Star-game Stealth, but sweeping the Mammoth? Not there yet. Mammoth

Previous weeks:
Week 1 – 0-1
Week 2 – 2-2
Week 3 – 2-2
Week 4 – 2-4
Week 5 – 2-2
Week 6 – 1-3
Week 7 – 2-2
Week 8 – 1-3
Week 9 – 2-2