Week 4 picks

Holy crap. I went 5-1 last week, my best weekend for making picks EVER except for my 5-0 week back in March of 2012. Of course, the only one I got wrong was the one I most wanted to be right – the Toronto/Buffalo game.  A whopping seven games this weekend, so I have lots of opportunity to make a huge jump in the percentages, and lots of opportunity to drop back under .500.

Once again, I gave my picks on this week’s Addicted to Lacrosse show.

Record: 7-4 (.636)

Game
Comments
Pick
CAL @ EDM Edmonton looked really good last weekend, and they’re at home again. Rush4
COL @ VAN Iannucci playing against his old team makes this an interesting game, but I still have to go with the Stealth. I’m starting to feel the same about betting against Tyler Richards as I am about Matt Vinc. Stealth4
MIN @ PHI Philly lost their game against Buffalo last week but they have to feel confident about their 2nd half comeback. Minnesota has yet to prove that they can score without Ryan Benesch. Wings
TOR @ ROC I hate to pick against my team, but like I said, I also find it hard to pick against Matt Vinc. Knighthawks5
VAN @ CAL I have no explanation for this pick. This will be really good game and I can see either one taking it. Stealth4
BUF @ COL Buffalo looked really good in the second half of their game against the Rock. That plus their OT win in Philly will give them confidence. Bandits4
PHI @ MIN Minnesota’s home opener, and they’re playing against their former teammate, who they also saw the previous night. Swarm

Week 3 picks

The first of two busy weekend in the NLL – six games this weekend, seven next weekend. I announced all my picks on this week’s Addicted to Lacrosse show but in the unlikely event that you didn’t watch the show (you did, right? RIGHT?), here they are. This will be true going forward – we plan on making predictions on the show every week, and I’ll be posting mine here as well.

Record: 2-3 (.400)

Game
Comments
Pick
TOR @ BUF The Rock looked really good last weekend while Buffalo didn’t. The Rock are 14-6 all-time in Buffalo. That said, Troy Cordingley would love to prove to the Rock that firing him was a mistake, and so he’ll have his team ready to play. I’m going to this game – should be a good one. Rock5
COL @ CAL Calgary did not play like Calgary last week and so they will want to prove to their home fans that they are still a team to be reckoned with. Colorado will attempt to reckon with them. If Dillon Ward starts and plays like he’s done so far this year, this prediction could easily go south. (Get it? Colorado is south of Calgary) Roughnecks
PHI @ ROC Philly looked really good last weekend, but I find it hard to bet against Matt Vinc. Knighthawks
COL @ EDM Toughest game to call this week. Edmonton was 2-6 at home last year and 7-1 away, but I’m betting they can improve on that this year. Rush
MIN @ VAN The Swarm kept the Knighthawks to only 8 goals last week, but I don’t think they can be that strong defensively two weeks in a row. The Stealth are playing their first-ever home game in Vancouver (as a Vancouver team, anyway, they played the Championship game last year and a couple of pre-season games in Langley over the last couple of years) so they’ll want to put on a good show. Stealth
BUF @ PHI After losing their first two (assuming my prediction above holds), the Bandits will be angry and will do whatever they can to avoid starting 0-3. This anger and desperation could result in a debacle where they take a million penalties and lose by a ton, or Troy could pull them together and make them play better. There’s no evidence yet that he can do the latter (Darris certainly couldn’t over the last couple of years), but that’s what I’m going to go with. Bandits

Week 2 picks

The first week of the season had some of the expected and a bit of the unexpected. The expected: Rochester and Minnesota both got great goaltending but the Knighthawks offense was just that much better than the Swarm’s. The unexpected: Colorado had goaltending problems until rookie Dillon Ward showed up, John Grant didn’t record a point until almost the end of the third quarter, and Mark Matthews didn’t score. Also unexpected: Philadelphia impressed, Buffalo did not. Well, given the fact that Buffalo ended up last in the league last year and wasn’t much better the year before, perhaps that shouldn’t have been unexpected. But I really thought the changes the Bandits made would make for a better performance than what we saw.

Record: 1-2 (.333)

Game
Comments
Pick
CAL @ TOR No team in the league scares me as much as Calgary when they come to town. Their offense is just too stacked and the team is just strong top to bottom. That said, the Rock ain’t bad either so I’m going with the home floor advantage. Rock
VAN @ COL The Stealth are right behind the Roughnecks in terms of a strong top-to-bottom team. Tyler Richards is probably the best goalie in the league not named Matt, and they must have some serious confidence in the likes of Tyler Digby and Cody Bremner to keep them in lieu of Dean Hill and the Nooch. Stealth

2014 NLL Predictions

As I do every year, here are my predictions for the final regular season standings for the upcoming season, and also the major end-of-season awards.

Final Standings

East

  1. Rochester
  2. Toronto
  3. Buffalo
  4. Minnesota
  5. Philadelphia

West

  1. Calgary
  2. Vancouver
  3. Edmonton
  4. Colorado

 

Individual Awards

MVP

Winner:  Garrett Billings. He’s been right up there in MVP voting for a couple of years, and I think this is his year.
Short list: Cody Jamieson, Mark Matthews

Goaltender of the Year

Winner: Matt Vinc. I may just pick Vinc every year until he retires or The Next Matt Vinc arrives.
Short list: Tyler Richards, Aaron Bold

Defensive Player of the Year

Winner: Kyle Rubisch. Like Vinc, I’ll likely just keeping guessing Rubisch until someone else rips the award away from him.
Short list: Mike Grimes, Rory Smith

Transition Player of the Year

Winner: Geoff Snider. This is who I think should win. If I were to pick who I think will win, it’d be Jordan MacIntosh. But MacIntosh isn’t strictly a transition player, and for some reason this really annoys me. This is similar to Jeff Shattler a couple of years ago – was he the MVP: yes. Was he the transition player of the year: in my opinion, no.
Short list: Jesse Gamble, Brad Self

Rookie of the Year

Winner: Robert Church. This award is almost always a tough one. It’s a crapshoot which rookies will quickly adapt to the NLL and which will not.
Short list: Logan Schuss, Jason Noble, Cody Bremner, Karsen Leung

Les Bartley (Coach of the Year)

Winner: Chris Hall
Short list: Troy Cordingley, Derek Keenan

GM of the Year

Winner: Steve Dietrich
Short list: Doug Locker

2014 preview: Vancouver Stealth

Stealth

The Stealth continue their west coast tour. They did six years in San Jose and four in Washington before moving north of the border, and now we’ll see if Vancouver is really the lacrosse town everyone thinks it is. Even if it is and every game is a sellout, the Stealth will still have the lowest attendance in the league, since the Langley Events Centre only holds 5,500 people. The lowest per-game average in the league last year, other than the Stealth, was Edmonton with 6,714. But Stealth ownership knew that when they made this decision, so presumably the lower arena costs and lower travel costs and who knows what else are sufficient reasons for the move even if they guarantee themselves the lowest attendance. Then again, said lowest attendance of 5,500 a game would still be over 30% higher than they had last year.

After a crappy 2012 which saw the Stealth finish dead last and miss the playoffs, they rebounded in a big way in 2013, not only finishing tied for first in the division but heading to their third Championship game in four years. They got about as close as you can get to “worst-to-first” in a year, but lost a one-goal final to the Rochester Knighthawks.

With appearances in three Championship games in four years, the Stealth have become an elite team. If they had won just one more of those games (or not finished last in the one other season), the word “dynasty” might even be floating around. Can they continue this high level of on-field success?

2013 season summary

Record 9-7 (Tied for 1st in West, seeded 2nd)
Home 5-3
Away 4-4
Goals for 193
Goals against 192
Top scorer Rhys Dych (97)
Playoffs Division semi-finals: Beat Edmonton 12-11
Division Finals: Beat Calgary 14-13
Finals: Lost to Rochester 11-10

Roster changes

When the rosters were announced on December 16th, the Stealth’s list was the first I saw, and was my first “holy crap” of the day. Athan Iannucci and Dean Hill, Washington’s #3 and #6 scorers last season, were both released while three rookies made the team. Hill is a veteran of eight seasons, while Iannucci is a former MVP and 100-point player. That said, it’s not like the Stealth released Gary Gait; Nooch only scored 100 points once and his second-highest total was 61. But he averaged 46 points over the last two seasons while Hill averaged 38, so the Stealth must have a lot of confidence in the likes of Cody Bremner, Tyler Digby, and Sean Lundstrom.

Also hoping to add to the Stealth goal totals will be Alex Gajic. Gajic is returning from injury, having missed all of 2013 and most of 2012, but he scored 48 points in each of the previous two seasons with the Mammoth. Alex joins his brother Ilija as the second and third Gajic transplants from Colorado, as Nenad did the same thing two years ago. Nenad only lasted three games with the Stealth in 2012, so here’s hoping Alex and Ilija have better luck.

The Steath will have a new face-off man this year, as Bob Snider was traded. Snider took 96% of the Stealth’s faceoffs last year, winning 61% of them, so whoever takes his place has big shoes to fill.

Also missing will be Tim Henderson. 2nd Lieutenant Henderson graduated from West Point in May and found out in June that he was being deployed to Afghanistan, and so will be unavailable to the Stealth at least until he returns. I don’t know how long his deployment is, but my buddy Google tells me that nine months would likely be the absolute minimum. So he’ll be out until at least March, and that assumes both the shortest possible deployment and that he’s ready to play the instant he returns. Probably safe to assume he won’t be playing in 2014 at all.

Burning questions

I have a couple of questions for this team, one on-floor and one off:

  1. Was releasing Iannucci addition by subtraction? Or will the Stealth be looking for more offense?
  2. Can the lower mainland sustain an NLL team if the ownership is completely on-board (which the Ravens’ ownership was not)? Can an NLL team survive on only 5,500 attendance (best case) per game?

Look out for

Lewis Ratcliff. After two 90+ point seasons, Ratcliff’s production dropped to 76 points in 2012 and 67 in 2013. IL Indoor ranked him 45th on their top 50 players, which means they think there are 44 players in the league – an average of five players per team – better than Ratcliff. That would have been unbelievable only two or three years ago. Is Ratcliff on the downside of his career at the ripe old age of 32? Or did he just have two substandard years? Almost everyone on the Stealth had a substandard year in 2012 – did it simply take Ratcliff an extra year to get back to form? He tweeted recently that he needs glasses – could a 20:20 Ratcliff get back to 90 points?

Prediction

Second in the west.

Haiku

Moved to Vancouver
No Snider but two Gajic’s
Iannucci’s gone

NLL 2014 rosters: Who’s in, who’s out

Here is a complete list of the changes in rosters for each team compared to last season. The “In” lists contain players that are on the 20-man roster that were not on the final roster from last season, and may include players that were on the practice roster or IR last year. The “Out” lists contain players that were on the final roster last year but are not on the 20-man roster now, and does not include players that are now on one of the other lists (eg. PUP, IR). Players on the Holdout, Physically Unable to Perform (PUP), or Injured Reserve (IR) lists may be moved to the active roster before the season begins.

Names for each list are in alphabetical order.

Buffalo Bandits

In: Ryan Benesch, Kevin Brownell, Troy Cordingley (head coach), Dave Pym (assistant coach), Joe Resetarits, Rory Smith, Andrew Watt
Out: Carter Bender, Nick Cotter, Jon Harasym, Mike Hominuck, Derek Hopcroft, Tracey Kelusky, Darris Kilgour (head coach), Mike McNamara, Luke Wiles
IR: Eric Penney
PUP:
Holdout:
Practice Squad: Colin Boucher, Jordan Critch, Hayden Smith, Mitch Wilde

 

Minnesota Swarm

In: East Division, Cameron Flint, Mike Hobbins, Jordan Houtby, Scott Jones, Jason Noble, Logan Schuss
Out: Dan Ball, Mitch Belisle, Ryan Benesch, Nic Bilic, Jay Card, Evan Kirk, Pat Smith, Corbyn Tao, Andrew Watt, West Division
IR:
PUP: Matt Gibson
Holdout:
Practice Squad:

 

Philadelphia Wings

In: Don Alton, Kyle Buchanan, Blane Harrison (head coach), Tracey Kelusky, Evan Kirk, Brian Megill, Michael Poppleton, John Ranagan, Pat Saunders, Garrett Thul, Ryan Ward
Out: Kevin Buchanan, Ned Crotty, Angus Dinley, Ethan Farrell, Jim Forsythe, Brandon Francis, Kyle Hartzell, Pat Heim, Steve Holmes, John McFadyen, Mike McLellan, Brandon Miller, Johnny Mouradian (head coach), Paul Rabil, Jeff Reynolds, Brian Teuber, Drew Westervelt
IR:
PUP: Rob Campbell, Brendan Mundorf, Max Siebald, Kyle Wailes
Holdout:
Practice Squad: Michael Diehl, Eric Hoffman, Bill McGlone

 

Rochester Knighthawks

In: Mac Allen, Mike Thompson
Out: Mike Accursi, Rory Glaves, Matt Hummel, Kyle Laverty, Jimmy Purves, Jon Sullivan
IR: Jamie Batson
PUP: Angus Goodleaf, Zac Reid
Holdout:

Practice Squad: Wenster Green, Mark White

 

Toronto Rock

In: Craig England, Dan Ladouceur (assistant coach), John Lovell (head coach), Blaine Manning (assistant coach), Ethan O’Connor
Out: Troy Cordingley (head coach), Scott Evans, Mike Hobbins, Blaine Manning, Brendan Thenhaus, Roger Vyse, Cam Woods
IR:
PUP:
Holdout:

Practice Squad: Dustin Dunn, Eric Law, Jeff Swift, Mike Lum-Walker

 

Calgary Roughnecks

In: Peter Dubenski, Cody Hawkins, Karsen Leung, Garrett McIntosh, Tor Reinholdt
Out: Jackson Decker, Nolan Heavenor, Aaron Pascas, Joe Resetarits
IR:
PUP: Travis Cornwall, Pete McFetridge, Scott Ranger
Holdout:
Practice Squad: Brett Baron, Scott Carnegie, Jake Hayes, Barclay Hickey

 

Colorado Mammoth

In: Cameron Mann, Bob Snider, Dillon Ward, Drew Westervelt
Out: Mac Allen, Joel Delgarno, Ilija Gajic, Jaeden Gastaldo, Ian Hawksbee, Ryan Hotaling, Dan Lewis, Richard Morgan, Jarrett Park, Gavin Prout, Rory Smith
IR:
PUP:
Holdout: Casey Powell
Practice Squad:

 

Edmonton Rush

In: Nic Bilic, Robert Church, Riley Loewen, Jimmy Quinlan (defensive coach), Adrian Sorichetti, Dane Stevens
Out: Mike Burke, Mike Cudmore, Jimmy Quinlan (player), Ryan Ward, Devan Wray (defensive coach)
IR:
PUP: Corey Small
Holdout:
Practice Squad: Mitch Bannister, Jarrett Toll, Alex Turner

 

Vancouver Stealth

In: Cody Bremner, Tyler Digby, Alex Gajic, Ilija Gajic, Brett Hickey, Sean Lundstrom
Out: Kyle Buchanan, Tim Henderson, Dean Hill, Athan Iannucci, Mitch Jones, Justin Pychel, Bob Snider
IR: Brett Bucktooth, Mitch McMichael
PUP:
Holdout:

Practice Squad: Josh Hawkins, Neil Tyacke, Chris Wardle, Nick Weiss