Roik out, Rose in

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In an attempt to right their listing ship, the Rock replaced the anchor on Monday. Matt Roik was supposed to be the goalie of the future for the Rock but his tenure lasted just over half a season, as the Rock traded for Calgary backup Nick Rose on Monday, releasing Roik outright. Calgary gets Toronto’s first round draft pick in 2014, and if Toronto doesn’t make it to the Championship game this year, they also get a second round pick from Calgary in 2014. Is this the solution? Obviously we won’t know that until a few games have been played, but in order for Rose to be the solution, Roik would have to have been the problem. Was he?

In 10 games, Roik was 4-4. Among regular starters (i.e. 300+ minutes), he ranks ninth in both GAA (12.52) and save percentage (.725). In a nine team league, ranking ninth is not good. The Rock are also tied for last in goals against with 129. From these numbers, it certainly sounds like goaltending is a big problem. But (feel free to gasp out loud here as a stats guy says this) the numbers don’t always tell you everything.

Quite simply, Roik was not the reason for the Rock’s less-than-stellar season thus far. He had his tough games, and in a couple he wasn’t sharp at all. But in those ten games, he’s really only had two or maybe three bad outings, and only one real stinker. Interesting that the Rock decided that this was too much for Roik, when Stephen Leblanc has had more than three lousy outings this year, but he’s not going anywhere (and I’m not suggesting that he should be).

The real problem is that there isn’t a single problem. There were games where the goaltending wasn’t great (pretty much the last three), but there were also games where the defense in front of him gave up too many chances, and other games where the defense was fine but nobody wanted to score. The Rock have scored 13 or more goals in five games, so they can score. They held the Wings to only 6 goals so they can play defense, though that was the only game this year where they’ve held the opposition to less than 11. In the first seven games, the Rock were 4-3, but in the three losses, Roik wasn’t the problem. In the 14-8 loss to Philly, I said in my game report: “I certainly wouldn’t pin the loss squarely on him [Roik]”. Even Terry Sanderson said in the press release “In this case, I don’t feel our guys were playing well enough in front of Matt”. That sounds to me like they are acknowledging the fact that it was a team thing, not just Roik.

None of what I’ve said would be news to Sanderson, Troy Cordingley, Jamie Dawick, or anyone else in the Rock organization, were they to grace my humble lacrosse blog with their presence. So if Roik wasn’t the problem, why did the Rock make this move? I have to think it’s the same reason you sometimes pull the goaltender during a game – just to shake up the team. Mike Thompson had some ugly games for the Bandits, but their 6-game losing streak wasn’t entirely his fault. That didn’t stop Darris Kilgour from picking up Anthony Cosmo, and who’s been the better goalie since then? Thompson.

Rose hails from the lacrosse hotbed of Orangeville, Ontario, and a number of Rock players – Edwards, Gamble, Bryan, Rooney, and Josh Sanderson, according to Eh Game – have played with Rose before, either on the Boston Blazers or the Orangeville Northmen. It’s not like Roik was a complete unknown, but we all know that Terry Sanderson, also an Orangeville guy, would much prefer having players on his team that he’s familiar with.

Are the Rock a better team with Rose? This year, it obviously remains to be seen. Going forward, the answer is likely yes. Rose is eight years younger than Roik, and had a lot of success in junior lacrosse, winning a couple of Minto Cups and being named IL Indoor’s Junior Goaltender of the Year in consecutive years. He hasn’t seen an awful lot of playing time in the NLL, but has been a backup to two of the best in Cosmo and Poulin. Oddly, Poulin was also a backup to Cosmo, and both Poulin and Cosmo were at one time backups to Bob Watson in Toronto. And Cosmo was once traded for Matt Roik. The cycle of goalies is complete.

So what happens to Roik now? Maybe he and Nick Patterson will hang together and watch NLL games online for the rest of the year. It’s certainly possible that he’ll catch on with another team, likely in a backup role unless there’s an injury. Or maybe he’ll get a starting job somewhere if a team starts to falter, even if it’s not their goalie’s fault.

Game report: Buffalo A MILLION @ Toronto 14

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The Bandits and the Rock played a rare lacrosse doubleheader on Friday night. In the first game, the Rock played smart and the offense was clicking, while the Bandits were undisciplined and had lousy goaltending. Toronto won the opener 11-8. In the second game, it was just the reverse. The Rock couldn’t score to save their lives because of the great Bandits defense and they took the stupid penalties while the Bandits got their offense going, and Buffalo won the second game 13-3. Unfortunately, each of these games was only 30 minutes long, and their aggregate score was what really mattered.

The final score was actually Buffalo 21 @ Toronto 14, not A MILLION like in the title of this article but as a Rock fan, that’s what it felt like. Some of the numbers in this game are staggering – Toronto had 11 goals in the first half and 3 in the second. Buffalo had 8 (eight!) power play goals and four shorthanded goals. In contrast, Dan Carey’s beautiful behind-the-back goal in the second was Toronto’s second shorthanded goal of the season. The Rock had a run of five goals to take an early 5-1 lead, but in the second half Bandits had runs of 5 and 6 goals. Five different Bandits had 6 or more points.

How Rock fans felt as the game went on

Mark Steenhuis wasn’t having the greatest season of his career, but he was everywhere on Friday night. Near the end of the game when it was obvious that the Bandits were just killing time whenever they had possession, they’d just send Steenhuis out there by himself to run around and get pounded for 30 seconds. He didn’t even have anyone to pass to half the time – there were no other Bandits anywhere near him. One of those times, the Rock were on the power play but managed to allow Steenhuis to run around without really hitting him at all. After about 20 seconds of this he scored. A few Toronto fans actually started to boo the Rock defenders.

The Rock were much more undisciplined in the second half than the first. Toronto had four penalties in the first half, but only one that wasn’t coincidental with a Buffalo penalty. Buffalo had five, including two at the same time. In the second half, Toronto had six non-coincidental penalties. Matt Roik even got a penalty when he cross checked Luke Wiles in the head, though I did not see what Wiles had done. Wiles got a minor while Roik got a double minor. Toronto fans started booing when the penalties were announced, but Roik deserved it and was lucky he didn’t get five. There were two fights: Stephen Hoar and Travis Irving in the second, and then Patrick Merrill and Irving again in the fourth. I didn’t see the beginning of the second fight, and all I saw was Merrill on the floor with Irving pounding on him. My son asked if the guy who didn’t throw any punches could be given a fighting penalty; I said that in that case Merrill wouldn’t be given anything and Irving would just get two for roughing. But both got game misconducts and Merrill was also given an instigator penalty, so it sounds like Merrill picked a fight with the wrong guy and got his butt kicked.

On the plus side for the Rock, Garrett Billings continues his strong season picking up 9 points (3+6) and Colin Doyle had another good game with 5 goals and an assist. The Rock had four power play goals of their own and a shorthanded goal. Let’s see… other positives for the Rock… I’ll have to get back to you on that.

For the Bandits, Cosmo did not look sharp. He made a few pretty good saves, but the Rock seemed to have him figured out. He was pulled for Mike Thompson, who played very well. That is the Mike Thompson that I picked to win goaltender of the year. Mat Giles had 6 points (2+4), Steenhuis and John Tavares both had 4 goals and 3 assists, Luke Wiles had 5 goals and 2 assists, and new daddy Chad Culp had a pair of goals and six assists for eight points. I mentioned in the pre-season that if all the Bandits offensive guys could get it together, they could have a scary good offense, and we saw that on Friday.

I don’t really have a lot else to say about this game. It started off well for the Rock and it looked like the Bandits would continue on their losing skid. But then Toronto came out flat in the second half while Darris Kilgour must have given one hell of a halftime speech in the Bandits dressing room. The Rock have now lost four of the past five, while the Bandits season might have just turned around.

Other notes:

  • The singing of the National anthems was a study in contrasts. There were two singers, one for the American anthem and one for O Canada. The guy that sang the American anthem had a deep country-and-western sort of voice, and did a very good job. The woman that sang the Canadian anthem was local radio personality Josie Dye. She started off with the wrong words “O Canada, we stand on guard for thee”, and things got worse from there. After a few more lines it was obvious she was so nervous or flustered that she had totally lost track of the words and she actually stopped and started over. Then she got them wrong the second time as well and the crowd started singing very loudly – whether that was to drown her out or to help her remember, I can’t say. She seemed to remember the words after that and ended up finishing the song. She was actually a decent singer but the performance was shameful. I haven’t seen an anthem that badly butchered since Roseanne.
  • There was one unusual play in the first half – a shot clock violation was called on the Rock, and the Rock player (I think it was Doyle) immediately put the ball down, and then stood there waiting for the Bandits to grab it. The Bandits defense raced to the bench to get the forwards out, but a few seconds later the ref blew the whistle and Doyle picked up the ball again. He ran in and got a shot on net, though it was stopped. It was not clear why he was allowed to pick up the ball in the first place. My only guess was that the ref decided that the Bandits took too long on the line change.
  • Jesse Gamble had yet another nice game, scoring a goal and adding two assists. He’s impressed the hell out of me this season.
  • Ryan Sharp announced on Friday that he has retired from the NLL. He missed most of last season with knee injuries and I guess he aggravated it enough in the last game (or gradually over the season) that his doctor told him he had to stop. I can’t say I’ve been a huge fan of Sharp this season; while he was a big tough defender, of which the Rock have precious few, I felt he took too many unnecessary penalties. That said, it sucks when a player has to end their career early because of injuries.

Week 11 picks

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I have still yet to break the elusive .500 mark this season, and not just on the season as a whole; I haven’t broken .500 in any single week either. I went 2-4 last week, but was this close to going 4-2. I called the split of Colorado and Washington, but for some reason I decided that the Stealth would win in Colorado and the Mammoth would win in Washington. They did split, but each team won at home.

This is the first season that I’ve really made an effort at individual game predictions during the regular season. I have come to the following stunning conclusion: it’s hard. When the experts over at IL Indoor (and yes, I write there too but I’m just a fairly knowledgeable fan, those guys live and breathe lacrosse) are all under .500, what chance does an amateur like me have? You can go with “gut feelings”, but we all know how reliable they are. Or, you can attempt to use logic, but you end up with contradictions. Take the Philly-Toronto game from a couple of weeks ago:

  • The game is in Toronto, so I can clearly not choose Philadelphia
  • Philadelphia has a winning away record while the Rock have a losing home record, so I can clearly not choose Toronto
  • Toronto is the reigning NLL Champion, so I can clearly not choose Philadelphia
  • Philadelphia beat Toronto in their last meeting, so I can clearly not choose Toronto
  • Toronto beat Philadelphia in the game before that, and by a greater goal differential, so I can clearly not choose Philadelphia
  • Philly has Kevin Crowley, a potential rookie of the year, as well as former MVP Dan Dawson, so I can clearly not choose Toronto
  • Toronto has perennial top scorer Josh Sanderson and former MVP Colin Doyle, so I can clearly not choose Philadelphia
  • Philly has beaten the Bandits twice this year while the Bandits beat Toronto in their only meeting, so I can clearly not choose Toronto

I decided to go with Toronto, and Philly won. After using my dizzying intellect to do all that analysis, I picked the game wrong. The real choice should have been obvious: don’t make picks.

Record: 16-25 (.390)

Game

Comments

Pick
BUF @ TOR I believe I’ve chosen the Rock to win every game they’ve played this year, so perhaps I am a homer when it comes to that. But in my defense, it’s not like the Rock is a terrible team and my picks make no sense. Could the Bandits beat the Rock in Toronto? Sure. The Rock are under .500 at home this year, Cosmo’s shaken off a lot of rust, and John Tavares has stolen a game or two in his career. But I seem to go with trends for my picks – until Buffalo proves to me that they are worthy of a pick (and losing 6 in a row is not the way to do that), I won’t be picking the Bandits. Rock5
MIN @ BUF Gotta go with Minnesota on this one, mainly for the same reason as above, though Minnesota has been playing really well lately, so I might have picked them even if Buffalo wasn’t last in the league. Swarm
EDM @ PHI Toughie of the week. I picked Philly to beat Edmonton a couple of weeks ago because the Wings were in first in the East and Edmonton was second-last in the west. The Rush won. Now Philly’s in first in the east and Edmonton is last in the west. I gotta go with the odds and pick Philly again. Wings

Previous weeks:

Week 1 – 0-1
Week 2 – 2-2
Week 3 – 2-2
Week 4 – 2-4
Week 5 – 2-2
Week 6 – 1-3
Week 7 – 2-2
Week 8 – 1-3
Week 9 – 2-2
Week 10 – 2-4

Game report: Philadelphia 12 @ Toronto 10

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The battle for the east was hard-fought and close, as expected, with the 4-4 Wings coming into Toronto to play the 4-4 Rock. The winner would take first in the east as well as win the season series between these two. The Rock took an early but short lead, and the teams traded goals in the second, but the Wings pulled away in the third and held off a late Rock rally to win 12-10.

Kasey Beirnes gave the Rock the lead 3:48 into the first, but only eight seconds later Wings captain Brodie Merrill tied it up. Toronto never led again in the game, though they did tie it up three times in the second. One of those tying goals came with less than a minute left in the first half, which ended at 5-5. Drew Westervelt then scored early in the third to give the Wings a lead they’d never give up. The Rock scored two goals in 44 seconds with less than three minutes remaining to get within one, but that was as close as they’d get as David Brock put the game away with an empty-netter.

The Rock were playing catch-up all night, and did make a game of it, but Philly wouldn’t let them get any kind of momentum. Of the Rock’s ten goals on the night, five of them were followed by Philadelphia goals less than a minute later, and two of those were less than ten seconds later. It’s pretty deflating when you score and think “we’re making progress, only one more and we’re tied!” and then the other teams scores before your goal has even been announced.

The streak of Rock losses with Colin Doyle in the lineup continues. They have not won a game this year that Doyle has finished. That’s not to say this loss was his fault; I thought Doyle had a pretty good game. But it seems that the offense settled itself pretty well while he was injured, and once he returned they changed everything to allow him to run the show, rather than fitting him into the system they had used successfully. Stephan Leblanc’s frustrating season continues as well, as he was kept off the scoresheet entirely. Leblanc took 12 shots on net, but 5 missed the net completely and the rest hit Brandon Miller right in the chest. Garrett Billings took an amazing 19 shots, though only 8 of them hit the net, and only one went in. But most of Billings’ shots off net hit Philadelphia defenders before they ever got to the net. There were an awful lot of blocked shots by the Philly D.

Brandon Miller was excellent in the Philadelphia net, and the defense in front of him was very solid as well. The Rock passed the ball a lot because they couldn’t get shooting lanes (except for Doyle, who passed up shooting lanes for passes on a number of occasions). On the few occasions that they did manage to get clear shots, Miller shut the door. At the other end, Matt Roik made some good saves as well but let’s face it, he let in some that he really should have had. On Philadelphia’s ninth goal, he was way out in front of the crease trying to stop Kevin Crowley, but Crowley passed to Mike Hominuck on the right side of the crease and Roik was way too far out of position to have a chance to stop it. He stopped a lot of direct shots, but anything that bounced seemed to beat him. I get that you don’t want to kill the guy’s confidence by pulling him two games in a row, but you have to do what’s best for the team, and bringing in Pat Campbell would have been the right move. Campbell played very well last weekend after replacing Roik and really should have been in this game in the fourth.

That said, the Philly offense was able to have their way with the Rock defense, for the same reason that I mentioned in my last Philly @ Toronto game report: many of the Rock defenders are small while the Wings forwards are all huge. Watching Bruce Codd and Jesse Gamble pound on Drew Westervelt was almost funny, though they did a pretty decent job. At one point, Winds defender John McFadyen (listed as 6’7″ on the Wings site) was standing next to 5’7″ Josh Sanderson. At times this game looked like a high school team taking on the fourth graders from the elementary school next door.

In the third quarter, with Patrick Merrill in the box already, the Rock were given a bench minor for unsportsmanlike conduct. Considering what I’ve heard (and seen) Troy Cordingley yell at refs in the past without penalty, this had to be pretty bad. Anyway, the weird thing is that the ref had his hand up signalling a penalty. The Wings then had the rest of that 30-second possession and took a shot, grabbed the rebound, had another 30 second possession, another shot and another rebound, and then part of a third possession before the Rock grabbed the ball and play stopped. Wouldn’t it have made sense, at least after the first 30 seconds ended, to give the Rock the ball and get themselves a two-man power play? Or at least pull the goalie for an extra attacker? They would have had almost a full minute of 5-on-3 lacrosse. As it was, they did neither and played 5-on-4 for about 45 seconds. The Wings basically killed off the first penalty themselves and had a two-man advantage for all of 9 seconds. Then the Rock managed to kill off the second penalty.

Strangely, the Rock did the same thing less than two minutes later when Philly got hit with two penalties in quick succession. They could have given Philly the ball as soon as the second penalty was called to stop the clock and get a two-man advantage, but they didn’t. This one made a little more sense because the Rock pulled Roik, so they had a two-man advantage anyway. They ended up with a shorter 5-on-3, but did end up scoring after the first penalty was over.

Other game notes:

  • It was great for the Rock to honour the Canadian Forces. Nobody is more deserving of our respect. But why was Wings captain Brodie Merrill left out of the ceremonial face-off? Seemed like a strange and unnecessary snub, especially since Merrill is Canadian. And obviously nobody told him, since he took a couple of steps towards centre before realizing that they never called his name.
  • For the second home game in a row, Matt Roik was not announced during the opening lineups, and did not come out with the team. He did eventually make his way onto the floor.
  • Rock music guy: when the Rock have possession near the end of such a close game, perhaps “Give it away give it away give it away now” isn’t the right song to play.
  • Jesse Gamble had another great game. I really like watching this kid – he hustles everywhere and even my wife, who comes to maybe one lacrosse game per year, noticed how fast he was. He’d be a strong Rookie of the Year candidate in a normal year, but so many rookies have been so dominant this year that his chances are likely lessened. Still, I think he should at least be in the conversation.
  • Ryan Sharp, on the other hand, is likely the Rock’s nominee for Dumb Penalty Champion of 2012. He only took two penalties but both were blatant and unnecessary, and one led to a power-play goal. Glen Bryan’s roughing penalty near the end of the third was also completely unnecessary, and he’s lucky he didn’t get five minutes for a cross-check to the head. That one led to a PP goal as well.

Week 10 picks

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And my streak continues. Other than week 1 which only consisted of a single game, I am 2-2 in every odd numbered week, and .500 or lower in every even numbered week. The last five weeks have alternated between 2-2 and 1-3, and that will end this week since there are six games.
John Grant will not be playing in Colorado’s two games this weekend, which may or may not make the picks in the Colorado games easier. After all, Rochester lost five players (including their top scorer) for one week and won, then lost when those players returned. I have said at least twice this season that Colorado’s offense was based mainly around Grant and if he were to get injured or started slumping, they wouldn’t be able to recover as well as other teams with more balanced offense. Now we’ll see how prescient those statements were.
Record: 14-21 (.400)

Game
Comments
Pick
CAL @ EDM Edmonton is a better team than their record indicates. If their offense can start clicking, their defense is good enough to make them contenders. But that has to start happening pretty soon, or it might be too late.  They’ve only had two home games, but they beat Philly last weekend at home, and they’ll be motivated to put on a good show for their Twitter jersey game. Rush
PHI @ TOR The Rock’s last four games were: two blowouts against Philly (one in each direction), then a convincing win against a good team (Rochester), and a humiliating loss against a bad team (Washington). Depending on which Rock team shows up this weekend, it could be good or it could be very bad for them. Philly’s on a two-game losing streak, but first place and the season series is on the line, so expect a hard-fought game. Rock
EDM @ CAL Yeah, the post-All-Star-game Rush will be better than the pre-All-Star-game Rush, but sweeping the Roughnecks? Not there yet. Roughnecks
WAS @ COL OMG look at me picking Washington. A couple of weeks ago this would have been a no-brainer: Colorado sweeps the Stealth, with the over-under on the weekend goal differential around 15. But since then the Mammoth have proved that they are beatable, and the Stealth have proved that there is indeed a good lacrosse team buried under there somewhere. The Stealth’s fortunes will continue – for one game, anyway. I actually made this pick before it was announced that Grant would be out, but I’m a little more confident in it now. Stealth
BUF @ ROC Buffalo can’t lose six in a row, can they? Well, I also thought they couldn’t lose three in a row, or four, or five. I expect Cosmo to have a better game as he shakes off more rust, but the Knighthawks are getting great production out of Cody Jamieson and great leadership and production out of Mike Accursi, and Matt Vinc had a great game against Philly. Hawks in a close one. Knighthawks
COL @ WAS Yeah, the post-All-Star-game Stealth will be better than the pre-All-Star-game Stealth, but sweeping the Mammoth? Not there yet. Mammoth

Previous weeks:
Week 1 – 0-1
Week 2 – 2-2
Week 3 – 2-2
Week 4 – 2-4
Week 5 – 2-2
Week 6 – 1-3
Week 7 – 2-2
Week 8 – 1-3
Week 9 – 2-2

Attendance away from home, Pt. 2

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I looked over the 2012 NLL attendance stats yesterday and decided that the Bandits were the biggest draw in the league. I explained why and described the method I used to come up with that conclusion. I also said that my conclusion was wrong. Well, kind of. As it turns out, my conclusion was right but (a) the method I used was slightly flawed, and (b) there are really too few games to make a definite conclusion. Let me explain. No, there is too much. Let me sum up.

I will describe the flaw in my reasoning by way of an example using made up numbers. Let’s use the same example as before – Toronto playing in Colorado and Buffalo, and Rochester playing in Minnesota and Washington, and we want to find out which team (of Toronto and Rochester) had the biggest impact on attendance. Let’s say for simplicity that each game’s attendance is 500 higher than the average attendance for that arena. Using the previously described method, the average draw for both Toronto and Rochester would be 500, and so we’d conclude that they have roughly the same impact on attendance. This is false.

The reason that it’s false is this: bringing in an extra 500 people to a game in Colorado is not as big a deal as bringing in an extra 500 people to a game in Washington. Colorado’s average home attendance is 14626, so an extra 500 people would increase attendance by 3.42%. But Washington’s average is only 4017, so an extra 500 people means a 12.45% increase. Rochester’s presence in Washington had four times the effect on attendance than Toronto’s presence in Colorado. Once again, we need to factor out the average attendance by using the draw percentage rather than the draw. In this case, the draw percentage for Toronto was 3.42% in Colorado and 3.26% in Buffalo while the draw percentage for Rochester was 12.45% in Washington and 6.38% in Minnesota. Toronto’s average draw percentage was 3.35% while Rochester’s was 9.42%. While our previous calculation showed no difference in the draw numbers, in actual fact Rochester had about three times the impact on attendance than Toronto did.

Let’s add the draw percentage to our previous table. Note also that the attendance for the Minnesota @ Washington game from Feb. 24 was not included in the game sheet until today. This affects Washington’s home average attendance, and therefore the draw numbers for teams that have played there (Calgary, Edmonton, and Minnesota). I’ve updated the numbers from the previous article.

Team Away Games Average Draw Average Draw Percentage
Buffalo Bandits 3 961 13.6%
Colorado Mammoth 4 920 10.9%
Rochester Knighthawks 6 279 2.4%
Calgary Roughnecks 4 84 1.1%
Toronto Rock 3 -50 -2.6%
Edmonton Rush 4 -330 -2.9%
Washington Stealth 4 -525 -5.7%
Philadelphia Wings 3 -627 -6.1%
Minnesota Swarm 4 -780 -11.0%

Despite the flaw in my logic, the ordering remains the same, and therefore the conclusion remains the same: the Bandits are the winners. Or so it looks.

As I briefly mentioned before, the biggest problem with this whole scheme is sample size. Buffalo has the highest draw percentage, but this is only based on three games. One of those games was in Rochester, which is close enough to Buffalo that many of the fans in the Rochester arena actually drove from Buffalo. Indeed, the draw percentage for that game alone is 38.3%, while the draw percentages for the other Buffalo away games were 5.0 and –2.6 in Philadelphia. That one game skewed Buffalo’s draw percentage to the top of the heap, while Colorado has positive draw percentages (10.0%, 15.0%, 15.2%, and 3.4%) in all four of their away games, so you could also argue that Colorado is really the biggest draw.

If I were to take the attendance numbers for the past five years and calculate the draw percentage, then perhaps the numbers would be meaningful but half a season’s worth of data is just not enough.

Attendance away from home

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I have a database containing information on every game (including every goal) in the NLL this year. I’ve been looking at goal totals, assist totals, and weird combinations like “which quarter has seen the most power play goals scored?” (Answer: the 4th overall, though Minnesota and Philly like the 2nd better). I then started to look at the attendance numbers to figure out which were the teams that fans in other cities wanted to see.

Background (you can skip this section if you’re not interested in where this database came from):

As part of my work writing the Money Ballers columns on ILIndoor.com, I wrote up a program (a python script, if you care) to download and read the game sheets for each game from NLL.com and calculate the Money Ballers points for each player. This was a lot faster and easier than the error-prone manual way I did it for the first week or two. I then realized that I could modify my program slightly to record a bunch of information about each game in a database. I’ve been working for Sybase, writing software for a SQL database engine, for almost fifteen years, so I kind of know what I’m doing there.

I changed my script to store information on each game (home/away teams, winner/loser, final score, attendance) and each goal (scorer, first and second assist, what quarter, what time within the quarter, and whether it was power play, shorthanded, game-tying, go-ahead, game-winning, empty net, or penalty shot). I will hopefully be adding other stats like shots on goal, loose balls, penalties, etc. in the future. This is all stored in a Sybase SQL Anywhere database, and I have stored procedures written in SQL to serve up web pages displaying and aggregating these stats in various ways. And no, these web pages are not available on the internet, only on my laptop. Sorry.

My page on attendance originally contained the following numbers for each team:

  • Total attendance (Colorado is the only team over 100,000 this season)
  • Average attendance (Colorado leading, 12,614)
  • Home average (Buffalo leading, 15,318)
  • # home games
  • Away average (Colorado leading, 10,602)
  • # away games

The away average seemed like the best way to figure out who the biggest draw was, but I quickly realized that this number was heavily skewed by the cities that a particular team had visited. For example, say you wanted to decide which would increase attendance more for any given team: hosting Toronto or hosting Rochester. If each has played two away games but Toronto has played in Colorado and Buffalo, while Rochester has played in Washington and Minnesota, then you can’t compare the averages. To compare them would be meaningless because Colorado and Buffalo get far higher attendance numbers than Washington or Minnesota regardless of who’s visiting. This means that the fact that Toronto’s away average is in the 15,000 area while Rochester’s is maybe 6,000 doesn’t tell us anything. We need a way to take away the differences in average attendance.

To to this, I took the attendance for a particular game and subtracted the average home attendance for the home team. For example, Calgary’s average home attendance so far this season is 8,122. When Colorado played in Calgary, the attendance for that game was 9,341.This means that all other things being equal, Colorado increased the attendance by 1,219. I call this difference the draw, so Colorado’s draw for that game was 1,219. If the attendance for a particular game is less than the average for that arena, then the draw for that game is negative. Doing this for all of Colorado’s away games and taking the average gives you the average draw. For Colorado this number is 920. This means that regardless of what arena you are talking about, having Colorado in town increases the attendance by about 920 people.

This scheme factors out the huge differences in attendance averages at the various arenas, making them more easily comparable. But they’re still not going to be 100% accurate, for a number of reasons. First off, we’re talking about a very small sample size – only a handful of games per team. Secondly, attendance can be affected by many other factors, including which night of the week the game is, the time of the game, the weather in the city at the time, how the team is doing (if the team is losing, some people may not bother going to the game regardless of who the visitor is), how the visiting team is doing (more people might have come out to see Washington last year than this year) and even how other sports teams in the city are doing (a Mammoth game in Denver on Super Bowl weekend will not draw the same if the Broncos are playing than it would if they are not).

There is no way to adjust the numbers to account for all of these factors, but here are the numbers for the draw for each team.

Team Away Games Average Draw
Buffalo Bandits 3 961
Colorado Mammoth 4 920
Rochester Knighthawks 6 279
Calgary Roughnecks 4 32
Toronto Rock 3 -50
Edmonton Rush 4 -356
Washington Stealth 4 -525
Philadelphia Wings 3 -627
Minnesota Swarm 4 -935

We can see that the Buffalo Bandits are the biggest draw in the league, bumping attendance by an average of 961 people per game. Colorado is next at 920. The Roughnecks and the Rock don’t make much of a difference, while having the Swarm in town reduces attendance by 935 per game. Again, because of the small sample sizes it’s hard to draw meaningful conclusions, so perhaps we’ll wait until the end of the season and see what the numbers look like then. I plan on expanding my database to include games and stats from previous seasons, though it looks like I won’t be able to get the detailed goal information since the game sheets don’t contain them. The attendance is there, so I may be able to get data for the past 2-3 (or even more!) seasons.

This article is the first in a short series about attendance. Next time: why my conclusion above is wrong and how to fix it.

Game report: Washington 14 @ Toronto 9

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In last night’s Rock / Stealth matchup, we had a 1-6 team that has been struggling on offense all year, and a 4-3 team that’s contending for first place in their division. Strangely, each team looked like the other as the Stealth pulled out a 14-9 victory in Toronto. The Stealth scored early, taking a 1-0 lead a minute in, and the Rock were never really in it at all.

How bad was the Rock offense? Leblanc, Billings, and Sanderson had four points each. Nobody else on the Rock offense had a single point. Eight members of the defense / transition had a point each, and Pat Campbell got a point as well. At one point while the Rock were in the offensive zone I thought to myself “It’d be nice to get a short-handed goal here before this Stealth power play is over” and then realized that the Stealth weren’t on the power play at that point, it just seemed like it.

As for the Stealth, Dean Hill led the way with 5 points (2+3), Jeff Zywicki was welcomed back with open arms as he scored two and added two helpers, and Lewis Ratcliff had 2+2 as well. Athan Iannucci has now scored one goal and two assists in each of this three games as a member of the Stealth.

Kevin Croswell, who was just signed on Thursday and is so new to the Stealth that his jersey didn’t even have his name on it, was outstanding in goal. He made a number of excellent saves, though many of the Rock’s 50 shots hit him square in the chest. The Stealth defense, who I recently graded an F, was also excellent in preventing the Rock from getting many decent shots.

The Rock defense, on the other hand, allowed plenty of good shot opportunities, many of which were converted by the Stealth. Matt Roik started but was pulled early in the third.  He wasn’t terrible but wasn’t great either, allowing 9 goals on 30 shots. Pat Campbell came in and allowed a fairly easy one within the first couple of minutes, but then settled down and only allowed 3 more. Campbell made some pretty impressive saves himself and stopped 22 of 26 shots, though he ended up getting tagged with the loss. Campbell is, shall we say, a very energetic goaltender, jumping and bouncing around like his pads were on fire. When he makes a save, he immediately passes the ball to someone, almost as if he’s panicking and wants to get rid of it as soon as possible. I’m sure there’s no panic involved, that’s just how it looked.

I tweeted during the game that the Stealth did not look like a 1-6 team, and they definitely did not look like a 1-6 team who were missing their top scorer and their #1 goalie. A little later, my friend Faisal said the same thing. Kudos to the Stealth for what was likely their best game of the season. All the ILIndoor people, all the In Lax We Trust people, and Jon Turner, and I (my picks) all picked the Rock to win this game, possibly the first unanimous game all season. People have been spouting the whole “any team can beat any other team on any given night” thing all season long, and I’ve been getting kind of tired of hearing it. But the fact that the Stealth won this game in such a convincing fashion proves that it’s true.

Other game notes:

  • Damn, that Iannucci fella’s big. He looked like he was wearing football shoulder pads but I think he’s just that big.
  • There was one fight, in the 2nd quarter between Cliff Smith and Rock newcomer Scott Johnston. It was pretty long but rather boring, with a lot of struggling but few punches thrown. I don’t remember who won since I kind of lost interest, and I’m not sure what triggered it either. At the time, I suspected it was just Johnston doing the “I’m the new guy, I need to make an impact” thing.
  • I asked my friend Steve at halftime whether he thought it was the Rock offense that was so bad or the Stealth defense that was so good. His response: “Yes.”
  • The Rock had at least three goals called back because of crease violations, which is not a complaint – the calls were correct. The Stealth had a couple called back as well, though Teddy Jenner and Rhys Duch (both watching on TV) said on twitter that these were bad calls. Not that this means they’re wrong, but they both do have a wee bit of a Stealth bias.
  • Not everything was sucky for the Rock. Damon Edwards and Jesse Gamble both looked really good on transition, and Stephan Leblanc did have four goals, though I think he led the team in “shots that hit the goalie in the chest”.
  • In the fourth, Campbell was hit by someone and fell while the Rock ran up the floor with the ball. It wasn’t that hard a hit and Campbell got up again. The ref then decided that for whatever reason the Stealth should have possession, and then Campbell fell back down again, apparently in pain. It really looked like Campbell waited until the possession call before deciding he was hurt, though it’s highly possible that he was not faking anything and the timing just make it look that way. The Rock were given an unsportsmanlike conduct bench minor (which was announced as simply “bench minor”) on the same play, so I have to wonder if the refs thought the same thing.

The Leafs and Raptors need a Terry

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A little over three years ago, I wrote an article about the General Managers of the Leafs, Raptors, and Rock. The Leafs had just hired Brian Burke as their new GM, and it seemed that the Toronto media had already decided that he was going to save the team; in fact, I facetiously referred to him as Our Saviour for a while after that. Bryan Colangelo had been the Raptors’ GM for a year or two, and had done a pretty good job of turning around the mess that Rob Babcock had left behind. The Rock still had Mike Kloepfer as GM, and the team sucked.

My article suggested that the Rock needed to get rid of Kloepfer and hire themselves a “Brian” who would overhaul the team and make them not suck, which Burke and Colangelo were obviously about to do with the Leafs and Raptors. One of the suggestions I gave for who could take over was Terry Sanderson, and another was Jamie Batley. Ironically, less then four hours after I posted that article, the Rock did fire coach Glenn Clark, who was at least part of the problem, and Batley was hired as coach. The rest of the problem was solved at the end of the season when Mike Kloepfer resigned. A month later Sanderson was re-hired as GM. The next season (2010), the Rock went to the Championship game and in 2011, they won it all. We’re now midway through the 2012 season, and the Rock are tied for first place in the Eastern division. I’d call that mission accomplished.

I could pat myself on the back for predicting the Rock’s next course of action (kind of – I suggested Sanderson though I said it was unlikely), but the original point of my article was lost. It wasn’t so much that the Rock needed a new GM,  it was that the Rock needed to do what the Leafs and Raptors did and replace their rookie GM who screwed the team up with a proven veteran who could turn it around. The Rock did that, but the Leafs and Raptors haven’t had nearly the success that we all envisioned when Our Saviours came to power.

In the 3 seasons prior to Burke’s being hired, the Leafs had 91, 83, and 81 points and missed the playoffs every year. In the two full seasons since, they had 74 and 85 points and missed the playoffs every year. This year they’re on pace for 83 points and missing the playoffs. They don’t have any first-round draft picks for a couple of years because of the Kessel trade, so the rebuilding process will be continuing for a long while.

Update: My timing was off. The picks involved in the Kessel deal were for the last two drafts, so that’s done now. Thanks Faisal for the clarification!

Bryan Colangelo was hired by the Raptors in February 2006, six years and a week ago. In the first couple of years, Colangelo looked brilliant. The Raptors finished first in the Atlantic division the very next year, and Sam Mitchell was named Coach of the Year and Colangelo Executive of the Year. The Raptors lost in the first round of the playoffs, but made the playoffs again the next year. They lost again in the first round, and then things went south quickly. They haven’t made the playoffs since and haven’t really been much of a threat at all. Last season they were a hopeless 22-60 and this year they’re not much better at 11-25.

Barring miracles, the Leafs and Raptors are not likely to win championships during the Burke / Colangelo eras. I’m not suggesting firing them now, though I think the Colangelo era has run its course and unless the Raptors start turning things around on the floor very soon, Colangelo should be done at the end of the year. I don’t think Burke has done a terrible job; he’s acquired some players who have been great like Phaneuf and Lupul. The fact that the goaltenders play like Turk Broda one week and a turkey sandwich the next isn’t entirely Burke’s fault. I’d give him another year or two to right the ship but unless obvious improvement is made, he’s gone too.

Three years ago, I said that the Rock needed to find their Brian, and they did. Now the Leafs and Raptors need to find their Terry Sanderson.

NLL Mid-season report: West division

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Following my recent mid-season report on the East, let’s take a look at the NLL West. We have two awesome teams, one in the middle (but on the high side), and one not scoring but doing very well defensively. And the Stealth.

 

Roughnecks Calgary Roughnecks

Offense: A+

Best in the league, at 13.6 goals per game. They only have one player in the top ten in scoring, but five in the top 25. Hell, even their goalie is averaging more than a point per game. They haven’t scored fewer than 12 goals in any game, and scored 21 last week against a previously-undefeated team. They’ve only lost twice, both in overtime. With a couple of lucky bounces, the Roughnecks could easily be 7-0.

Defense: A

Only one team has allowed fewer goals than the Roughnecks, and that’s the Rush who also have a great defense, but have played one fewer game. Note that the Bandits have also played one fewer game than Calgary, but Buffalo has allowed one more goal. In terms of average, the Roughies are second-best in the league, with 10.7 goals against per game. In their five wins, they’ve only allowed as many as 11 goals once. Mike Poulin is one of the best goalies in the league, Nick Rose is better than average as a backup, and Frankie Scigliano made his NLL debut a couple of weeks ago and allowed 5 goals in 35 minutes for a sparkling 8.56 GAA. Add in defenders and transition guys like Geoff Snider, Curtis Manning, Andrew McBride, and Mike Carnegie, and the Roughnecks don’t even need a great offense to be successful.

Overall: A+

But they do have a great offense. They don’t have the best record in the league right now, but I’d call them the best team in the league.

 

Mammoth Colorado Mammoth

Offense: A

Only Calgary has averaged more goals per game than the Mammoth’s 13.3. Of course, the fact that John Grant is playing out of his mind right now is a large part of that. Grant is not averaging 10 points per game anymore, he’s down to a measly 8.4. Grant has 59 points in 7 games – only 22 players had more than that last season. If his production for the rest of the season drops by 50%, he will still end up with more points than anyone had last year. Oh yeah, and they also have Gavin Prout, early Rookie of the Year candidate Adam Jones, and Sean Pollock who are all in the top 20 in scoring.

After that though, it drops off significantly. Jamie Lincoln has 15 points, but nobody else has more than 6. That’s the problem with having such a dominant superstar (if you can call having a player of Grant’s calibre a “problem”) – if he gets injured or hits a multi-week slump, the Mammoth are in less of a position to recover than, say, the Roughnecks.

Defense: B+

The Mammoth are fifth with 12 goals against per game. If you take out the Calgary loss, they’d be second at 10.5. They gave up 14 goals in their first game, then the numbers dropped steadily until they were down to 7 in back-to-back weeks. Then Calgary came in and blew them away. Still, that’s only one game, so we’ll give them the benefit of the doubt for now. Chris Levis is having his second straight great season. Imagine how good this team would be if Mac Allen wasn’t hurt.

Overall: A

It may seem weird to rank the Roughnecks higher than the Mammoth considering the Mammoth have a better record. It’s not like the Mammoth are overachieving and have beaten a bunch of weak teams – they are definitely a strong team, and if Grant stays hot and Levis continues to play well, they could have an amazing year. But I really believe the Roughnecks are better overall.

 

Rush Edmonton Rush

Offense: F

The top two scorers on the Rush are tied for 27th in the league. They have scored 10.7 goals per game, the second-worst in the league. They have less than 10 goals in 3 of their 6 games thus far, though they did score 16 against the Stealth. Shawn Williams is on pace for 64 points, his lowest total since 2000 when he only played 10 games.

Defense: A+

Wow. Just, wow. The Rush have given up an average of 10.2 goals per game, the best in the league by half a goal. Strangely, they’re even better away from Rexall Place, giving up a stingy 9.5 goals per game compared with the 11.5 at home. They’ve lost Chris Corbeil to injury, but still have Kyle Rubisch, Brett Mydske, top Money Baller Derek Suddons, Ryan Dilks, Jarrett Toll, and captain Jimmy Quinlan. There was word that the Rush were going to trade Paul Rabil to the Bandits for Jeremy Thompson or to the Knighthawks for Jordan Hall but they don’t need transition or defense. They need scoring.

Overall: C+

The Rush are the new Mammoth. Last year’s Colorado Mammoth also had a very good defense (though not this good) and a really bad offense. Of course, the Mammoth are kicking butt this year, so maybe the Rush have that to look forward to next year. Giving up Brodie Merrill for Iannucci Rabil nothing hasn’t hurt the defense at all, (how good would the defense be with Brodie?) but the offense needs help.

 

Swarm Minnesota Swarm

Offense: B+

Callum Crawford, Ryan Benesch, and Kevin Ross are leading the Swarm offense, no surprise there. But four of the next five are surprising: rookies Jordan MacIntosh, Corbyn Tao, and Jay Card along with 2nd year transition guy and captain Andrew Suitor, who has already eclipsed his 10 points from last year. The Swarm are fourth in the league in scoring, with 12.6 goals per game.

Defense: B

After the Blazers expansion draft, we thought the Swarm goalies this year might be Anthony Cosmo and Nick Patterson, a more than acceptable combo. Turns out to be neither one, and the Swarm went with rookie Tyler Carlson who has been very good and rookie Evan Kirk who has been outstanding. The Swarm are seventh with 11.6 goals against, but are improving – they’ve only given up more than 9 goals in one of their last four games. Their home goals against average is 9.5, almost two full goals better than anyone else. The defense has tended to be great in the wins (opposing scores are 11, 9, 6, and 7), but not very good at all in two of the three losses (scores of 20, 16, and 12).

Overall: B

With all the young kids, you might think this is a team that will be good in a few years, and I’m sure they will. But they’re also good right now.  The Minnesota Swarm have never won a playoff game, but they definitely have as good a shot this year as they’ve ever had.

 

Stealth Washington Stealth

Offense: F

The loss of Luke Wiles was pretty big, but not this big. The Stealth are dead last in the league, only scoring 9.3 goals per game. They’re the only team under ten, and 1.4 goals behind Edmonton. As Stephen Stamp and Ty Pilson discussed on last week’s Boxla Beat, the problem is simple: Ratcliff and Duch are just not scoring. Ratcliff has 15 goals on a league-leading 97 shots on goal – compare that to Curtis Dickson, who has 15 on only 60 shots, or John Grant, with 27 goals on 86 shots. Now Duch is injured and Jeff Zywicki is back, but that’s a wash at best. The addition of Athan Iannucci hasn’t helped much so far, but once he shakes off the rust he could make a big difference.

Defense: F

The Stealth are also dead last in this category, giving up 13 goals per game – 14 at home. They’ve given up 15 or more goals three times. Chris Seidel has played 93 minutes and leads the team with a brutal 12.26 GAA. Tyler Richards has a 77.5% save percentage, which is not bad (5th in the league). But his GAA of 12.58 is only good for twelfth among goalies – and this is a nine-team league, so three backups (including his own) are ahead of him in that category. Richards is also injured now, so unless Seidel and newcomer Matt King can stop the bleeding, things may get worse before they get better.

Overall: F

Sorry Stealth fans, but there are no two ways around it. The Stealth have sucked so far this year. Chris Hall returned to the bench for the last game, which didn’t have the impact on the team that I was expecting, but I don’t know how many of the practices and such before that game he was able to attend. Maybe once he’s running the whole show, the team will start playing like the team that went to the last two Championship games but right now, that’s certainly not how the Stealth look.

The Stealth have the same problem as the 1992 Orlando Magic, whose GM Pat Williams said “We can’t win at home. We can’t win on the road. As general manager, I just can’t figure out where else to play.“