The NLL Experience: Buffalo vs. Toronto, Part I

Posted on April 26, 2016 by Graeme

I attended a recent Rock-Bandits game in Buffalo, and in my game report, I added an entire section about “Banditland environment notes”. Over the years, I’ve been to a number of NLL games in Buffalo, mostly Rock games. I try to get to at least one Rock @ Bandits game each season, sometimes more than one, and I’ve seen some other non-Rock games there as well. In fact, the first NLL game I ever attended was the Bandits hosting the Philadelphia Wings back in 2000. As for Rock home games, I’ve been at well over 90% of those since 2001.

I decided to write a whole article comparing the experiences of a Rock game in Toronto with a Bandits game in Buffalo. Then I reached out to my audience and twitter followers to see if they had any comments, and got a few. The article ended up getting kinda long so I split it into two. This first one is my own observations. The second one (coming tomorrow) will be other people’s comments as well as a summary.

I’m just talking about the game experience itself – I’m not talking about parking or food options or ticket prices or the quality of the cheese sauce on the nachos (mostly – I’ll touch on this stuff a little in Part II). I know these are all part of the whole “game-day experience” but there’s stadiumjourney.com for that (Toronto gets a 4.1, Buffalo gets a 4.6 – both reviews written by the same guy).

Please remember that when I say “Many fans are <whatever>” or “Many fans <do or don’t do something>”, I don’t mean ALL fans, I just mean “I see this occurring in arena A more often than in arena B”. This could be due to my own biases, or where I sit, or any number of other things. It’s also possible that since many more people generally attend games in Buffalo (13-18k this year) than in Toronto (8-10k), certain things just happen more often. Thus it may seem that something is more prevalent when it’s really the same. I’m sure you and your friends don’t do these terrible things. But others do.

As a rule I don’t generalize. But yes, I know there is some generalization here.

Buffalo

Pros

Very loud
Swennie (aka Chris Swenson, the Bandits PA announcer) is one of the best. He and the fans have catch phrases for specific players – Dhane Smith, Benesch, Tavares, Steenhuis – and specific situations. Swennie was asking “What’s he got?” on a big save long before they were doing it in Edmonton or Calgary. FYI: His nickname is not “Sweaty” as I once thought it was.
Fans really get into the game. Chants are sometimes started by fans and sometimes by Swennie. Far more often by the fans than in Toronto.
Way more fans dress up, colour their hair, wear face paint, hold up painted signs, etc. Very little of that in Toronto.
I’ve always liked their penalty chant. When an opposing player gets a penalty, they chant “B‑O‑X! B‑O‑X! To the box! To the box! To the box box box!” When I first started going to Bandits games, that was it. In recent years they’ve sped the whole thing up and added a “Woooo” to the end, but I don’t like it quite as much now because the “Woooo” seems to be the focus. Now it’s “B‑O‑X! B‑O‑X! Totheboxtotheboxtotheboxboxbox WOOOOO!“
I don’t remember Swennie ever taking cheap shots at the other team or players like some other announcers do. Or did before they were let go by the Mammoth. Not to mention any names.

Cons

Very loud, which is a con if you don’t like that sort of thing. But then who goes to a pro sporting event hoping it will be quiet?
In my experience, there seem to be more “homers” in Buffalo, i.e. booing or screaming for a penalty every time a Bandit is checked (legal or not), booing every time a Bandit is given a penalty (deserved or not), that kind of thing. If I were an NLL ref, I’m not sure I’d like working games in Buffalo.
At the game that inspired this article, every time a Rock player was hit to the floor and needed the trainer to come out (it happened three times), some Bandits fans around us accused them of faking the injuries. I’ve seen this more often in Buffalo than in Toronto.

Toronto

Pros

Fewer fans as in previous years but the ones that are left are generally die-hards and are pretty lacrosse-savvy. They will applaud good defensive plays and penalty killing, not just good goals.
PA announcer Bruce Barker also doesn’t take shots at the other team or its players. The closest he’ll get is saying “Let’s crush the Rush!” or something to that effect, but even that he’ll say once at the beginning of the game and that’s it.
In playoffs games or overtime, I’ve heard the Toronto crowds get pretty loud. They’re not generally as loud as Buffalo, only in certain situations.
If an opposing player gets injured and is down on the floor for a while, there is almost always applause when he gets up, even if he has to be carried off the floor. I don’t generally hear accusations of diving or faking injuries, or at least not as many as I have in Buffalo. But that doesn’t mean they don’t occur. (Foreshadowing for Part II)

Cons

Fewer fans as in previous years. I wrote about this last month.
Quiet for the most part. They obviously shout when the Rock score and when they win and during fights and such, but just during regular play, there’s not much noise.
Barker does his best to get the crowd fired up but it doesn’t always work. Fans yell “Go Rock Go!” as long as Barker is yelling it over the PA, but once he stops, the crowd stops almost immediately. If Nick Rose makes a great save, Barker yells “Rooooooo-sey!” and sometimes the crowd yells “Roooooo-sey!” back, but sometimes not. But when Rose is having a really good game, the “Rosey”s are louder.
I’ve heard the crowd start “Go Rock Go” or similar chants by themselves with no help from Barker, but rarely. Usually only in playoff games. There is one that the fans do themselves – when the Rock score, a group of fans (mostly in section 118) stand up, chant the opposing goalie’s last name three times, and then add “You suck!” (This is quite amusing when the Rock score their fifth goal of the game in the fourth quarter while the opponents have 15 or so.) Also, earlier this year Nick Rose was having a spectacular game and a chant of “Rosey! Rosey! Rosey!” started from the fans.

In every arena in the league, there are stories about fans of the opposing team being harassed by home team fans, but as I mentioned above, I have never personally had any trouble at all in Buffalo. I have worn a Toronto Rock jersey to every Bandits/Rock game I’ve been to in Buffalo (except the “Tucker out Lymphoma” night this past April when I wore my “Braver than Brave” t-shirt) and have never been harassed in any way. In fact, after Canada won the hockey gold medal in the 2002 Olympics, I had Bandits fans see my Rock jersey and congratulate me on the victory. I also know some Bandits fans who sit with us at Rock games and they’ve never been harassed because of their Bandits jerseys, except once by Iggy but that was fun.

Unfortunately, this is not always the case. But that’s a story for another day.

Game report: Toronto 8 @ Buffalo 12

Posted on April 17, 2016 by Graeme

OK, so now it’s over.

To keep their playoff hopes alive, the Rock had to win both games this weekend (and keep winning after that). To their credit, they played a great game on Friday night but the Bandits didn’t play up to their standards. Anyone who’s watched the Bandits this season had to know that it wasn’t likely to happen twice. And it didn’t.

But early in the game, I thought it might. The Bandits started the first quarter missing the net a lot, just like Friday, and I wondered if we might see more of the same. But it was only an illusion. The Bandits did miss the net a few more times, but when they did get it on net, Brandon Miller just wasn’t up to the task. Miller allowed eight goals before being puller for Nick Rose, who was really good the rest of the game. Of course it raises the question of how the game might have gone if the Rock had started Rose instead, but (a) it’s all academic now and (b) going with Miller was the logical choice when you’re playing two games in two days.

Dhane Smith was kept to only two points on Friday night, but returned to normal on Saturday with five goals. No assists though, so the Rock defenders kind of kept him in check. Ryan Benesch made up for that with eight points. But who thought to keep an eye on Nick Weiss, who had only two shots and scored on both of them?

As the game went on and it was clear that the Bandits were likely to win, the Rock, and particularly Brodie Merrill, got more and more frustrated and started taking unnecessary penalties. The Rock were called for two major penalties only forty seconds apart in the second quarter. They both happened at the far end of the floor from where I was so I didn’t get a good look at whether five minutes was really justified. But Merrill took four penalties in the game – slashing in the first, a high-sticking major in the second, roughing in the third, and then he fought Steve Priolo in the fourth. He was then given a free bonus game misconduct because he got two majors in the game. Sort of a frequent-flyer thing. For a veteran like Merrill to spend so much time in the penalty box and then take himself out of the game entirely in a do-or-die game was inexcusable, especially when you consider how many players the Rock are already down.

But let’s get back to the two major penalties. To the Rock’s credit, they managed to kill off both of them while only allowing two PP goals, which isn’t bad for a 4½ minute 5-on-3. Then again it wasn’t actually a 4½ minute 5-on-3 because Dhane Smith got a slashing call early in the second penalty, making the next two minutes 4-on-3. During that PK though, huge props to Turner Evans who grabbed the ball in the Buffalo end and despite being triple-teamed, held the ball for most of the thirty seconds, looking like a young Blaine Manning or Mark Steenhuis.

The refs were all over this game, calling almost everything. Speaking of veteran players taking unnecessary penalties, the goalies aren’t immune either. In the second, Jesse Gamble managed to get around Alex Kedoh Hill, who swung his stick one-handed as we see players do all the time. But he hit Gamble square in the head and play continued, presumably because Gamble had the ball. A few seconds later Gamble passed the ball and then retaliated against Hill, and both players were sent to the box for roughing. Nick Rose tried to leave his crease to say something to the ref, who immediately pointed to him, saying “Stay in your crease”. Rose said something else and was immediately given an unsportsmanlike conduct penalty. Not smart, Nick. Luckily Mark Steenhuis was also feeling particularly mouthy and was given an unsportsmanlike conduct penalty (his second in five minutes) at the same time.

The Bandits got great goaltending performances from all three of their goalies this weekend. As I mentioned about Friday’s game, Cosmo and Steve Priolo made saves at crucial times, and in Saturday’s game it was Davide DiRuscio. The Big Fish was great on Saturday, frustrating the Rock offense all night. I’ve said it before this season – when Anthony Cosmo decides to retire, Bandits fans have good reason to be optimistic about their goaltending future with DiRuscio. And Priolo, of course.

So the Rock are out of the playoffs, the only team currently eliminated. They can still play spoiler though – if Vancouver wins their remaining games AND Toronto beats Calgary, the Stealth are in the playoffs. So say it with me Stealth fans: Go Rock Go!

Other game notes:

Brandon Miller started and allowed 8 goals in 23 minutes. Nick Rose took over and allowed 6 goals in 36 minutes. The Rock were already losing when Rose was brought in and never regained the lead or even tied it, and yet Rose was credited with the loss. I’m not sure how they decide who to give the loss to, but it’s wrong.
Billy Dee Smith is one intimidating dude. While defending against a Rock forward, I saw that he was yelling constantly and the look on his face was terrifying. There was an eight-foot wall of glass between me and him and I was still nervous.
Leading 12-5 in the fourth quarter, the Bandits music guy ironically (and quite intentionally) played We Will Rock You. I imagine that song wouldn’t have been played if the Rock were winning, or even if it was a close game.
After the Priolo-Merrill fight in the fourth, Bandits fans started chanting “Steve Pri-o-lo <clap> <clap> <clap>-<clap>-<clap>” (i.e. in the same rhythm as “Let’s go Bandits”).
When Nick Rose got his unsportsmanlike penalty, Kevin Ross took his place in the box. I told my son it’s because of their names: Ross and Rose are only different by one letter. He didn’t believe me.
I read later that Josh Sanderson left the game in the second after a hit to the head. I did wonder where he was at one point but didn’t make actually look for him so I figured I just didn’t see him. It just wouldn’t be a Rock game in 2016 if someone didn’t leave the game early because of an injury.

Other Banditland environment notes:

I think this every time I go to a game there but damn, it’s loud in Buffalo. I think all Toronto fans should be required to take in a game in Buffalo now and again to see how it’s really done. Sometimes chants and cheers start by themselves without the announcer’s help, which is exceedingly rare in Toronto.
It being Tucker out Lymphona night in Buffalo, Shawn Williams made a nice little speech thanking the fans for their unwavering support. Obviously the crowd’s applause was thunderous but it was also great to see applause from the Bandits & Rock players on the floor and even the refs.
The guy sitting a couple of seats down from my older son wore sunglasses the whole game. Public service announcement: if you think wearing sunglasses indoors makes you look cool, you are mistaken. You look silly.
Front row people: what is the point of pounding on the glass when there’s a play going on in front of you? We were in the second row and the people in front of us would stand up and pound on the glass whenever there was something happening close to them. Why?
FYI when Dhane Smith scores in Buffalo, the announcer yells that the goal was scored by “#92, great Dhane Smith!” after which the crowd barks. Like a Great Dane, in case you missed the reference there.
Several times, a Rock player was hit to the ground and stayed down for a few seconds (at least twice for Kri and once for Merrill – and that was just in our end), getting a whistle and play stoppage. Every time, the Bandits fans around us booed and accused the player of diving and/or faking injury. This is idiotic. How the hell can you possibly know if he’s faking an injury? Some serious injuries come from innocent-looking hits or just missteps on a slightly bumpy carpet. You simply can’t tell how hurt someone is by the force (or legality) of the hit. Luckily for the Rock, none of these players had to be removed from the game or carried off the floor like we saw on Friday night. These kind of boos and accusations are absolutely classless.
Buffalo fans also don’t know physics. The Bandits scored what looked like a goal but Nick Rose kicked it off of the goal line. During the review, they played a replay of it on the Jumbotron. You could see that the ball was bouncing on the line (only a few inches in the air) but never crossed it. Easy call for the ref. But many of the fans around us (and all around the arena) were shouting because it looked like the ball crossed the line. This is due to a thing called perspective. When the ball is bouncing straight up in the air, it looks like it’s actually behind things that are directly underneath it. This is very simple physics that the refs understood but many Bandits fans did not. An overhead camera shot would have made this obvious but we never saw one.
Yes, I’m aware that I’m generalizing. I’m sure there were plenty of Bandits fans who understood the perspective thing and didn’t think the Rock were faking injuries. But none of those Bandits fans were sitting near me at this game.

Game review: Buffalo 9 @ Toronto 12

Posted on April 16, 2016 by Graeme

It ain’t over yet.

The Rock sent that message loud and clear on Friday night, taking down the Buffalo Bandits 12-9 at the ACC to keep their slim playoff hopes alive. Despite being without Colin Doyle (who is out for the year because of a fractured vertebra in his neck – HE BROKE HIS NECK people), Brett Hickey, Patrick Merrill, Scott Johnston, Jamie Batson, Damon Edwards, and Bill Greer (did I miss anyone? Probably), the Rock managed to get it done against the top team in the East. That said, the Bandits didn’t really look like the top team in the East.

We’ll start from the outside and work our way in. Nick Rose was outstanding, yet again. I said a few weeks ago that he might be my pick for Goaltender of the Year, though Evan Kirk and Mike Poulin are right up there too. There were a couple of goals that he allowed on shots he didn’t see – at least I’m guessing he didn’t see them since he didn’t move at all – but he also made some really outstanding saves. Anthony Cosmo also had a strong game, making some great saves himself but just wasn’t quite as good as Rosey. The Bandits backup goalie, Steve Priolo (what, you thought it was DeRuscio? HA!), also made a great stop on the one shot he faced when a Rock player had a wide open cage with Cosmo on the bench.

Buffalo’s defense was generally good, with a few lapses here and there. Kasey Beirnes got a couple of goals from in close, and somebody (Sanderson?) was left alone on the doorstep at least once. Their transition was typically fast, but the Rock countered by sometimes leaving a defender down at the other end and going with only four O guys. This didn’t help the offense, but prevented the Buffalo transition from racking up the breakaway goals.

Toronto’s defense was excellent. The Bandits had lots of shot clock violations, shots from distance because they couldn’t get any closer (though Steenhuis did score one from the restraining line), and dumping the ball into the corner. They never scored more than two in a row, and had five leads in the first half, which all vanished. The only stat you really need to know: Dhane Smith was held to a single goal (Buffalo’s first goal) and a single assist (on Buffalo’s last goal). His goal was beautiful though – a bounce shot that was perfectly placed to hit the ground right under Rose’s dropping leg. Any slower or any further forward or back and it would have been stopped. Smith is by far the league’s leading scorer and hadn’t scored fewer than five points in any game this year. It’s amazing that a 4-10 team was able to keep him to only two points.

Neither offense was really clicking. There were lost of missed passes on both sides, and the Rock in particular seemed to make a lot of passes to someone who was completely covered or even double-teamed. Sure, if the pass is completed, you’ve got a man in close and a quick shot could surprise everyone, but it’s still a low-percentage pass and far more often than not led to turnovers. Dan Lintner and Turner Evans seem to be fitting in well with LeBlanc, Hellyer, and Sanderson (and Ross who played about half defense and half offense). If Sanderson and Doyle (BROKEN NECK) decide to hang ’em up after this season, Lintner and Evans won’t just step in and replace these two Hall of Famers without missing a beat, but the future of the Rock offense still looks pretty good.

As I mentioned, Dhane Smith was held to just two points; in fact nobody on the Bandits had more than four. They were doing less of the “pass it to the guy who’s double-teamed” thing than the Rock, but still missing players with passes and shooting wide of the net. Smith in particular missed the net a number of times. I remember watching him wind up and thinking “it’s Dhane Smith, this is going in” only to see him miss the net by a foot.

The injuries troubles continue for the Rock too. Right after the face-off to start the third quarter, Brock Sorensen was hit or turned his leg funny or something and fell to the ground, screaming in pain. My seats are 17 rows back from the Rock bench and despite the music playing, I could clearly hear his screams from centre floor. Play was immediately stopped and the ACC was silent for several minutes as the trainers tried to figure out how to get him off the floor. In the end, they mostly carried him, though he was able to hop on his right leg a little. His left leg never touched the ground and he did not return. Hopefully it looked worse than it was.

I wouldn’t say the Bandits got into penalty trouble, though the Rock did score three PP goals. But Buffalo got the same needless delay of game penalty twice. The ref whistled a change of possession, and Daryl Veltman immediately dropped the ball, but didn’t move. When the Rock player picked up the ball, Veltman immediately checked him. You can’t do that. He went to the box (a place with which he’s rather unfamiliar, see below) and Toronto scored on the power play. About six minutes later, Alex Kedoh Hill did exactly the same thing and also went to the box, though the Bandits managed to kill that one. Sometimes taking a penalty is necessary, in fact Luc Magnan took one in the third that probably prevented a Bandits player from being in all alone on Rose. But the delay of game one is not one of those. It’s completely avoidable and taking that one is kind of dumb.

These two teams meet again tonight in Buffalo, and my sons and I are making the trek across the border. As a Rock fan I’m hoping for a repeat performance, but as a realist I’m not expecting one. It wouldn’t surprise me to see Dhane Smith pull out 10+ points and knock the Rock out of the playoffs.

Other game notes:

Nice to see Adam Will get a goal in his NLL debut, though having a guy named Will and a guy named Hill didn’t help me figure out who was on the floor.
Daryl Veltman’s delay of game penalty was his first penalty since 2012. He now has nine penalties totaling 24 minutes in his entire career – eight seasons. Not bad.
Weirdest challenge ever – Buffalo was credited with a goal which Toronto immediately challenged. The replay clearly showed the ball never went in the net at all. The ref who called it a goal was in the perfect position to see this, so I’m not sure how he thought it was a goal in the first place. We’ll give him the benefit of the doubt though – in real time, it could have looked like it went in and bounced out very quickly. We’ve all see those goals before.
When Chad Culp got called for holding in the first quarter, some Rock fans near the penalty box did the Buffalo “B-O-X B-O-X” chant. Sweet.
At the beginning of the game, Bruce Barker announced something like “Let’s show the Buffalo fans how loud Toronto can be!” The clear answer: if we’re winning, not bad. If not, pretty damned quiet.
Announced attendance: 9,237. Maybe if they included all the players, coaches, and peanut and beer vendors. No way there were 9,000+ fans at that game.
Cool to see the @LacrosseBoss up on the Jumbotron, winning some power tools!

Could happen…

Posted on April 4, 2016 by Graeme

As I like to do at about this time every year, I’m going to look at the playoff picture and see what the possibilities are. Can a last-place team finish first? Can a first-place team miss the playoffs? Sometimes the possibilities are surprising.

Some options are no longer possibilities. Saskatchewan and Colorado have not only clinched playoff berths, they’ve clinched home playoff games, which means the final playoff spot in the West is between Calgary and Vancouver and neither can finish higher than third, so not much room for surprising finishes there. Neither Georgia nor Toronto can finish first in the East.

Let’s see what could happen. UPDATED after games of April 10.

Georgia finishes second in the East

If Georgia wins out, NE loses out, and Rochester beats Buffalo and Saskatchewan, all three teams are 9-9. The first three-way tiebreaker is the combined record against each other. In this case, Georgia would be 4-3 against NE and Rochester, New England would be 4-4, and Rochester would be 3-4, so Rochester finishes third (of the three, so fourth in the division). Then we drop to the two-team tiebreaker. Georgia and New England would be 2-2 against each other, so we go to Eastern division opponents. Georgia would be 7-5 while New England would be 7-6 so Georgia gets second.

Toronto finishes second in the East

The Bandits will have at most 8 losses, and New England will have at most 9. Toronto already has 10, so they can’t finish better than third.

Buffalo misses the playoffs

Buffalo can finish with no more than 8 losses. Georgia already has 9 and Toronto has 10 so the Bandits can finish no lower than third.

Rochester misses the playoffs

If Rochester loses three of their four remaining games, Toronto wins their remaining four, and Georgia wins four of their remaining five, Rochester is out.

New England misses the playoffs

No announcement has been made by the league or the team that New England has clinched, but I can’t find any scenarios where New England finishes any lower than third. Toronto already has more losses than New England can have, so Toronto will finish lower than the Wolves. There are no ways Georgia can have fewer losses than New England, so either NE is ahead of Georgia and Toronto (so they’re in), or they end up tied with Georgia. But in that case, Rochester is either also tied with them (so they’re out, given the three-way tie-breaker I mentioned above) or has a worse record. In the second case, NE is ahead of both Rochester and Toronto so they’re in.

Unless I’m misunderstanding the three-way tie-breaker, New England has clinched a playoff spot.

Update: Nailed it.

Vancouver finishes third in the West

It’s still possible for Calgary and Vancouver to end up tied at 7-11. The season series would also be tied at 2-2, so then the tiebreaker falls to record against divisional opponents. Vancouver would be 6-5 against western rivals while Calgary would be 3-8 so Vancouver gets in.

2016 Pre-season predictions revisited

Posted on March 26, 2016 by Graeme

We’re just past the mid-season point, so I’m going to look over my pre-season predictions for the standings and major awards and see how things are progressing. I don’t think I got any of my major award picks right (except for a “maybe” in ROY), but a few of my “dark horse” picks were surprisingly accurate.

Standings

In the East I had Rochester, Toronto, Buffalo, Georgia, and New England in that order. Clearly New England is doing better than I thought and Toronto is not, but if you swap them and also swap Rochester and Buffalo, I nailed it.

In the West, I had Saskatchewan, Vancouver, Colorado, and Calgary. Obviously I greatly overestimated Vancouver’s success this season. Move them to the bottom and I’m right again.

MVP

Prediction: Mark Matthews, who’s always a good choice for this award and is having a good season with 66 points in 11 games. But Dhane Smith is on pace to outscore Matthews by almost fifty points and beat the single-season scoring record by 25. Smith is the clear winner here.

Goaltender of the Year

Prediction: Aaron Bold. Again, always a good choice and is having a good season but right now, I’d have to give this to my dark horse choice, Nick Rose, closely followed by Mike Poulin.

Defensive Player of the Year

Prediction: Sid Smith but I’m going to have to go with Chris Corbeil on this one. I watched the Rush defense against the Rock at the ACC recently and they not only prevented looks and shots very well, but they were also really good at knocking the ball out of a forward’s stick and then scooping up the resulting loosie. I thought Corbeil was particularly good at this. He can also score in transition (6 goals so far) and on one transition chance going the other way in the Rush/Rock game, he caught up to Jesse Gamble, which I didn’t think was even possible.

Transition Player of the Year

Prediction: Karsen Leung. Leung’s numbers aren’t where they were last year and he didn’t score until his 8th game, so I’m going to go with another dark horse prediction, Alex Kedoh HIll. Hill has 25 points and 73 LBs and is a major part of the Bandits’ super-fast transition game.

Rookie of the Year

Prediction: Wes Berg. No idea if I got this right or not. In terms of points, Berg, Randy Staats, and Jesse King are all within 3 points of each other. But Swarm transition player Chad Tutton is also having a great rookie season, with an impressive 11 goals and is playing solid defense. Graeme Hossack in Rochester is also playing some great D. This might be a cop-out, but I’m going to say there’s no clear winner at this point so we’ll have to see what the second half of the season holds.

Les Bartley Award

Prediction: Dan Perreault. Um, yeah. Not only is Perreault not the coach of the year, he’s not even employed in the NLL right now. I did have Glenn Clark as my dark horse pick, and the way the Black Wolves are playing, he might be my mid-season choice.

GM of the Year

Prediction: Doug Locker. Um, yeah. I still think Locker did a pretty good job in the off-season, picking up Billings, Moleski, Hawksbee, and Travis Cornwall, and the Schuss-for-Powless deal last year was great for both teams. I don’t think it’s his fault that the team isn’t playing well but that said, I can’t give the GM of the Year award to a guy who created a sub-.500 team. John Arlotta also made some significant changes to the Swarm and in three or four years this might be a really good team but similarly, since they’re currently 4-8, we can’t say that now. Plus we’ve thought “this team could be really good in a couple of years” about the Swarm for ten years now and they just never seem to get there.

I may have to go back to the Black Wolves, as GM Chris Seinko did a great job to trade for Shawn Evans, reacquire Kevin Crowley, and also bring in guys like Dan Ball, Derek Suddons, and Sheldon Burns, all of whom are contributing on this surprising team.

Top 6 surprises of 2016

Posted on March 5, 2016 by Graeme

I did this last year and it was fun, so here’s this year’s version of the top surprises at the season’s midway point. I only did five last year, but I couldn’t narrow down this list any further.

6. Logan Schuss & Johnny Powless

These guys both struggled with their original 2015 teams and were traded for each other in what has turned out to be one of those rare trades where each team thinks they got the better of the deal, and they’re both right. Interestingly, Powless and Schuss had almost identical points/game averages at the time of the trade – Schuss at 3.56, Powless at 3.55. After the trade, Schuss’s numbers jumped 1.3 points to 4.86/gm while Powless’s dropped 1.38 to 2.17/gm.

But this year’s a different story for both of them. Nobody’s really surprised that these guys are having good seasons. But they’re not just having good seasons, they’re having career seasons. Each is leading his team in scoring, and that’s saying something when Schuss is playing with guys like Billings and Duch. Each is averaging 2+ points/game more than last season and also 2+ more than their career average. At this rate, Powless will finish with 93 points, beating his career high by 40, and Schuss will finish with 114, beating his career high by 37.

5. Dhane Smith

Similar to Schuss and Powless, nobody’s surprised that the Great Dhane is leading the Bandits in points. Nobody’s particularly surprised that he’s leading the league in points. To be 21 points ahead of second place halfway through the season is surprising, but it gets better.

Last season, Shawn Evans shattered the single-season points record with 130, breaking the previous record by 14. Evans averaged 7.22 points per game, a pace many thought he wouldn’t be able to keep up for the whole season. Some have even asked if anyone would ever be able to match it. But only one year later, Smith is not just on a pace to break that record, he’s way ahead. Smith is averaging 8.44 points per game, a pace that will give him 152 points. In fact, Smith only needs to average 6 points per game over the rest of the season to break Evans’s record so even if he falls off a bit, the record is still quite breakable.

4. Welcome to Saskatchewan

Many people, myself included, criticized Edmonton Rush owner Bruce Urban for leaving Edmonton and taking the team to Saskatchewan last year. While I don’t particularly like the way he did it (announcing the possible move as a threat during the playoffs, criticizing the City of Edmonton during negotiations, etc.) and I still think Edmonton is a legitimate lacrosse market, it looks so far like this was a great move. Saskatoon has welcomed the Rush and the NLL with open arms. The municipal government and local businesses seem to have grabbed hold of the team and the crowds have been great. The Rush are averaging 9765 per game, a number higher than eight of the ten seasons they were in Edmonton.

Now, let’s remember that the Rush averaged over 10,000 per game for their first two seasons, when they were a combined 7-25. So perhaps we should wait until season 3 or 4 in Saskatchewan before deciding whether or not this was a good idea long term. But for now, it’s great to see.

Another big pro of having a team in Saskatchewan: I can now type the word Saskatchewan in less than four minutes.

3. Struggling goaltenders

In 2015, six goaltenders had a GAA under 10. One was Cody Hagedorn who played about 14 minutes, and another was Angus Goodleaf who played 92 minutes. But the rest played at least 250 minutes and two of them (Aaron Bold & Matt Vinc) were everyday starters with over 1000 minutes.

This year, only one goalie has a GAA under 10, Tye Belanger who’s only played 43 minutes. Bold is third at 10.53 and Vinc is eighth at 11.76. Bold’s GAA is over a full goal higher than 2015, and almost two higher than 2014. Vinc’s is two goals higher than both 2015 and 2014. He has only had a GAA that high twice in his career: 2006 when he played 14 minutes with the Stealth, and 2012 when he had a 12.22 GAA but won the Championship with the Knighthawks.

But they’re not the only goalies having tough seasons – Nick Rose, Brandon Miller, Angus Goodleaf, Frankie Scigliano, Anthony Cosmo, Zack Higgins, Davide DiRuscio, and Tyler Carlson all have higher GAAs than last season. On the flipside, Dillon Ward, Evan Kirk, and Mike Poulin are all having strong seasons, and Eric Penney and Tyler Richards also have lower numbers than last season though they’re in a weird situation – their roles are reversed and Richards has only played in a couple of games.

2. The Toronto Rock

0-6 to start the season? Have you ever heard of such a thing? The Rock had never started a season worse than 0-4 in their history, and this is a team that went to the Championship game last season. They averaged 6.25 goals in their first four games, and then gave up 18.5 in the next two. Finally they got the offense and defense both working at the same time and have pulled off two wins in a row.

The only reason that this is not the #1 most surprising thing is that the Roughnecks did exactly the same thing last year, including going to the Championship game the previous year. The only difference is that the Roughnecks had never started a season worse than 0-2. The Roughnecks pulled it together though, and not only made the playoffs but went to the Western division final. The Rock seemed to have pulled themselves together as well, so the fact that Calgary salvaged their season last year gives the Rock some hope.

1. The New England Black Wolves

The Black Wolves started last season with a victory over the Bandits and then a 17-7 blowout of the Knighthawks, and things looked very promising for the relocated Wings. But then they must have realized that they were the relocated Wings. When I think about last year’s Black Wolves, I think of a team that wasn’t very good but looking at the numbers, they were even worse than that. After their 2-0 start they went 2-14. Their 14 losses is the second-worst in league history and their -63 goal differential is the fifth-worst in league history. They gave up 20 goals three times, and lost by eight or more five times. Only two teams have ever given up more goals than the 249 that the Black Wolves gave up in 2015 (though one was the Stealth of 2015).

So a coaching change was not all that surprising, though picking up the reigning league MVP was. But Clark, Veltman, and Evans can’t make that much of a difference, can they? Clearly, they can.

Last year, they only had six players with more than 30 points – and it’s really only five since two of them were Garrett Billings and Kevin Crowley, who were traded for one another. This season, they already have four with 30, and they’ve only played seven games. Pat Saunders led the team with 68 points last season; Saunders, Evans, Kevin Crowley, and Kevin Buchanan are all on pace to beat that this year. In fact, Shawn Evans could have that total by the end of next weekend – after nine games.

They’ve already won more games than last season, and are on pace to score 55 more goals and give up 54 fewer. Shawn Evans is still in the MVP conversation (though that conversation is being dominated by Dhane Smith right now), and they have five players above four points per game, something not even the Mammoth can boast. They are allowing a league-low 10.9 goals per game, the defense has been great, and Evan Kirk is playing his best lacrosse since his debut season with the Swarm in 2012. These guys are for real.

2016 NLL Predictions

Posted on December 22, 2015 by Graeme

My predictions for the final regular season standings as well as the major annual awards. The “Dark Horse” predictions are my “not as likely but could happen” picks.

Final Standings

East

Rochester
Toronto
Buffalo
Georgia
New England

West

Saskatchewan
Vancouver
Colorado
Calgary

Individual Awards