Category Archives: Buffalo Bandits

Week 6 picks

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I was 3-1 last week, my second consecutive week over .500. I can hit the magic .500 level on the season by going 4-1 this week. Bring it on.

Record: 9-12 (.429)

Game

Comments

Pick
TOR @ MIN The Rock are rolling (HA!) on the road this year, and I think that will continue in Minnesota. If Callum Crawford returns I’m a little less sure about this one, not that I’m really sure about any of them. Rock
ROC @ PHI Who ever heard of an 11am game? This is 8am for our west coast friends, so there’s a lacrosse game on before some of them even get to work in the morning. The Wings have impressed me so far this year, and the Knighthawks have not. I still think Rochester will finish the season ahead of Philly, but I have a weird feeling about this one. Wings
ROC @ BUF John Tavares is out again this week, plus we know the Bandits are stupid. Darris said so. As for Rochester, either they’ll be ticked off that they lost the previous night morning, or they’ll win on Friday and ride a two-game winning streak into Buffalo. Knighthawks
EDM @ CAL Can’t go against Calgary after their dominance last weekend. Roughnecks
COL @ WAS The Stealth only gave up 7 goals last weekend and lost. In Colorado, it’s looking even more like the fortunes of the Mammoth follow the fortunes of John Grant. He scored 6 and 5 points in their losses and 8 and 11 points in their wins. Stealth

Week 5 picks

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4-3 last week. Certainly better than the 0-4 the week before, and pushes my record (.353) up into the “not very good” range, which is way above last week’s “abysmal”. This week, I’m hoping to reach “mediocre”! Dream big!

Record: 6-11 (.353)

Game

Comments

Pick
TOR @ BUF This will be a hell of a game. Thankfully the game is on TSN in Canada, since I’ve heard that the YouTube feeds coming out of Buffalo have been at best problematic and at worst non-existent. No John Tavares for the Bandits, which can only be a good thing for the Rock. I almost hate picking the Rock sometimes because it makes me look like a homer, but in this case, I just can’t not. Rock
MIN @ COL It’s weird – I heard a ton last year about how Chris Levis was the goalie the Mammoth had needed for years and he performed better than expected. Then after only 2 games this year, people started talking about how he’s the team’s biggest question mark. After one more game he’s released, they pick up a guy who’s played all of 9 minutes in his NLL career, and now their goaltending problems are solved? Swarm
CAL @ EDM Calgary didn’t have the greatest first couple of weekends but holy crap, did they make up for it last weekend, winning twice by a combined score of 35-20. Edmonton won’t be a pushover by any stretch, but if the Roughnecks play like we now know they can, there are few teams in the league who can hold them back. Roughnecks
WAS @ ROC Rochester can’t really be this bad, can they? I’m sure I said this all last year about the Stealth, and look how that turned out. But it’s not like the Stealth were a championship-contending team before that! Oh wait, yes they were. OK, I’ve almost talked myself out of picking the Knighthawks here, but I’m going to go with my first impression. Knighthawks

Week 4 picks

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This just gets better and better. After an 0-1 opening weekend and a more positive 2-3 week 2, I was 0-4 last weekend. Maybe it’s time to start flipping coins. The comments on these picks keeps getting harder and harder too – for every reason I can come up with why Team A will beat Team B, I can come up with another for why Team B will win. Plus even if team A has a far better offense than team B, Team A’s offense may have a bad game. Or Team B’s defense may have an exceptionally good game. Or a couple of the players have a cold and while it doesn’t take them out of the game, they may be less effective. Or a whole host of other reasons. Trust me, I can come up with a whole bunch of excuses reasons of why I’m not predicting 100%.

There are a whole bunch of games this weekend, and the only way I can end up at or above .500 this week is to get every pick right. Even one wrong leaves me at 8-9. Unfortunately, I’ve been very busy this week and so I am putting this together at the last minute and don’t have time to put comments in, so I’ll just post my picks. If I get energetic tomorrow, I may revisit this article and put comments in for games that haven’t happened yet.

Record: 2-8 (.200)

Game

Pick
CAL @ COL Roughnecks
WAS @ EDM Rush
MIN @ TOR Rock
PHI @ BUF Bandits
WAS @ MIN Swarm
TOR @ ROC Knighthawks
CAL @ PHI Wings

Week 3 picks

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For a little while there, it wasn’t looking good at all. I was 0-1 after week 1, then I got the first three games of last weekend wrong as well – I was sitting at 0-4, and my next two picks were the only team that missed the playoffs last year winning and a team that went to the championship losing. Luckily Washington came through, and the Rock managed to hold off the Rush, so I’m 2-4. Let’s try and get above .500 this week, shall we?

Record: 2-4 (.333)

Game

Comments

Pick
COL @ CAL Both strong teams, and both lost last weekend. Dane Dobbie missed last week but will be back, while Colorado is still struggling with goaltending issues. Roughnecks
BUF @ ROC Buffalo was hoping to see Billy Dee Smith back for this one, but he hurt his foot so he’ll be out again. Meanwhile, the Knighthawks should have Casey Powell available. As good as Kurtis Wagar has been this year, I have more confidence in Matt Vinc so I have to go with Rochester. Knighthawks
PHI @ TOR Philly beat Buffalo so they’ve got some confidence, but Nick Rose was great last weekend and if I’ve learned one thing doing these predictions, it’s always stick with a hot goalie. Until he’s not hot anymore. Then you shouldn’t have stuck with him quite so long. Rock54
EDM @ WAS I know the Stealth’s newfound confidence will only taken them so far – confident teams sometimes lose – but not yet. Stealth44

Success vs. attendance

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This one should be obvious. If a team is winning, what happens to their home attendance? Goes up, right? In general, yes. But how much?

I was having a conversation with someone about attendance at lacrosse games, and he said that attendance had dropped at games in Philadelphia ever since the league started cracking down on hitting and fighting. It certainly hasn’t been eliminated from the game, but many think it’s down from where it used to be. He said that this is a bad thing for the league and this could be seen by looking at the attendance numbers. I pointed out that the fact that Philadelphia has had a playoff team only twice in the last decade may have something to do with declining attendance, so it’s pretty close to impossible to say that the drop in attendance was due entirely (or even partially) to the drop in hitting.

Hitting is something we don’t have accurate stats on, so we can’t really do any kind of analysis on how that correlates with attendance. But we do have won-loss records and attendance numbers, so let’s look at those.

What we’re looking for is how a team’s attendance correlates with that team’s success on the floor. To measure attendance (and factor out the number of games per season), we’ll use the average attendance at home games. To measure success, we’ll use the winning percentage, number of wins divided by number of games played. In this case, we are ignoring playoff games. I then calculated what’s called the correlation coefficient for each team. I won’t describe the math since if you know what it is you don’t need the description, and if you don’t know what it is you likely don’t care. Suffice it to say that a value of 1 means the attendance always goes up as success goes up and drops when the team is less successful. A value of -1 means it’s exactly backwards – attendance goes up as success goes down and vice versa. The closer the number is to 1 or -1, the stronger the effect – a value of 0 means that attendance and success are unrelated.

To avoid small sample sizes, we’ll only look at teams with 10 or more seasons in the NLL. The teams involved are the New York Saints, Baltimore Thunder, Philadelphia Wings, Colorado Mammoth, Calgary Roughnecks, Toronto Rock, Rochester Knighthawks, and Buffalo Bandits.

AttendanceVsSuccess

What this tells us is that the New York Saints attendance numbers were very dependent on their success – as their win-loss records started to decline, their attendance dropped. This effect was similar in Philadelphia, Rochester, and Colorado. The rest of the teams had much smaller coefficients, meaning that their attendance didn’t depend very much on their success on the floor.

Calgary’s value was negative, implying that as Calgary’s numbers go up, their attendance numbers actually go down. But this is a bit misleading – especially since I tweeted about it saying that it was depressing. The actual value is –0.019, which is close enough to zero that it’s fair to say that Calgary’s success on the floor is unrelated to their attendance numbers. The numbers for Toronto and Baltimore are slightly higher but still low enough to imply no correlation, and Buffalo is right at the bottom end of “low correlation”.

The definition of “bandwagon jumpers” or “fairweather fans” would be those who show up to support their team when they’re doing well and abandon the team when they’re not. Would it be unfair to refer to the numbers for the top four as being indicative of this? I’ll leave that determination as an exercise for the reader.

Week 2 picks

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So the upstart Stealth knocked off the champion Knighthawks last week, and while this was not a shocker, it’s not what I picked so I start the season on a losing note. Than again, so did a lot of people.

Record: 0-1 (.000)

Game

Comments

Pick
BUF @ PHI I’m not sure if this is because I think Buffalo will do pretty well this year or because I think Philly won’t. Likely both. A number of people pointed out that Cosmo’s numbers weren’t exactly stellar last year (12.41 GAA, 75.9 save %), but he had no training camp and started cold in the middle of the season. His GAA and save % in his last five games were 9.36 and 82.3%. Bandits4
MIN @ BUF Just as I think Buffalo will do well this year, I think the Swarm will do better. Adding Matisz and Jackson to an already-strong core will help up front, and once Sorensen is activated, they’ll have an even better back end in front of two of the best young goalies in the league. Swarm4
TOR @ CAL Two of the strongest teams face off in each team’s season opener. Calgary’s 5-2 in their last 7 home games, though the Rock are 6-1 in their last 7 away games. Considering the firepower on both of these teams, this one will come down to goaltending. Nick Rose, in his first full season as an NLL starter, has yet to face his former Roughneck teammates while Mike Poulin is coming off a Goaltender of the Year season. I have to give Calgary the edge here. Roughnecks5
WAS @ COL After the disaster that was the 2012 Stealth season, the team has to be pretty pleased with their opening game against the defending champs. They looked more like the 2010 or 2011 Stealth and Colorado might be the victim of that confidence boost. Stealth4
TOR @ EDM As bullish as I am on Minnesota, I’m not so much on Edmonton. The Rush’s problem has always been offense and Mark Matthews will certainly help to make up for the loss of Shawn Williams, Aaron Wilson, and Scott Evans but he can’t do it all. If Corey Small, Ryan Ward, and Zack Greer don’t bump up their offensive numbers, the Rush could lose a lot of 9-7 games. Rock5

NLL 2013 team previews in haiku

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A list of my 2013 season previews of each team in haiku forum, along with links to the longer form for each.

Buffalo Bandits

Many new Bandits
Chugger’s been a busy guy
JT’s still here, natch

Philadelphia Wings

Rabil, no Dawsons
Transition – or midfielders?
This is box, not field

Rochester Knighthawks

Few changes, but big
With Powell and the Dawsons
The champs have improved

Toronto Rock

Who will protect us?
Pat Campbell retired, but
Scott Evans is here

Calgary Roughnecks

Dave Pym, Kaleb Toth
Both gone, but no one can get
Through the Poulin Wall

Colorado Mammoth

Grant is the leader
Last year was record-setting
Only one Gajic left

Edmonton Rush

Lost Williams, Wilson
But wait, help is on the way
Matthews is the man

Minnesota Swarm

Surprisingly good
Rookies did the job last year
Still getting better

Washington Stealth

Zywicki, Bloom: gone
Lots of rookies join the team
Return to glory?

2013 Preview: Buffalo Bandits

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BanditsThe 2012 season started off just fine for the Buffalo Bandits. They hosted the rival Toronto Rock and beat them 14-10. The next week they travelled to Rochester and beat their other rivals 12-9. Then the troubles started. Five weeks later, they were 2-6 and their coach was calling them stupid, a bunch of bush leaguers, and questioning their heart. This was a lack of success with which the Bandits organization was unfamiliar, at least lately. The Bandits hadn’t finished below .500 since 1999, and finished first or tied for first in the East in four of the previous six seasons.

Still, after all the drama they went 5-3 in the second half and ended up tied for second in the East (dropped to fourth due to tiebreakers). Anthony Cosmo allowed a mere 7 Toronto goals in the division semi-final, but Nick Rose only allowed 6, ending what was not likely Darris Kilgour’s favourite NLL season. After the season, I predicted “There will be lots of changes coming for the Bandits this offseason” and lo and behold, I was right. Not that this was a particularly Earth-shattering prediction.

Roster changes

Steve Dietrich has only had the Bandits GM job since July but he’s been one of the busiest GMs in the league since then. Gone are Kevin Buchanan and Jeremy Thompson (both traded), Darryl Gibson and Mike Thompson (both retired), Brandon Francis, Travis Irving, Tom Montour, Ian Llord, Angus Goodleaf, and Roger Vyse (released), and former captain Chris White (signed with Toronto). A whole pile of new faces will don the orange and black in 2013, many of whom, strangely, are former Toronto Rock players. This list includes former Bandit (and Rock) Shawn Williams, Aaron Wilson, Jamie Rooney, Mike Hominuck, Glen Bryan, and Derek Suddons. Even Dietrich himself was the backup goalie in Toronto for one season, and goalie coach for one more. There are a few non-former-Rock additions as well: David Brock, Nick Cotter, and Kurtis Wagar.

There are also three rookies on the Bandits roster. Last year the Bandits had two Thompsons, this year they have three Smiths – all defenders. Billy Dee returns for his tenth season in a Bandits uniform, and his cousin Dhane was Buffalo’s first draft pick (5th overall) in the entry draft. Hayden was Buffalo’s second round pick, 13th overall, and is not related to the other two Smiths. The other rookie is Carter Bender, a forward who was taken 18th overall in the draft.

But even given the number of new faces on the team this year, some things never change: John Tavares, who has never played for the Rock (nor any NLL team other than Buffalo), returns for his eleventy-millionth season.

Burning question

Darris Kilgour the GM is gone but Darris Kilgour the head coach remains. Did the Bandits keep the right one?

Prediction

Third in the east because half the team is new, and it will take time for them all to gel together. But if they do that quickly and the Powell/Dawson/Jamieson experiment doesn’t work out, the Bandits could win the east.

Haiku

Many new Bandits
Chugger’s been a busy guy
JT’s still here, natch

NLL 2013 rosters: Who’s in, who’s out

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Here is a complete list of the changes in rosters from the end of the 2012 season to the roster lists just announced. Players on the Holdout, Physically Unable to Perform (PUP), or Injured Reserve (IR) lists may be moved to the active roster before the season begins. Note that not all teams listed players on the PIP or IR lists so some may be missing.

Names for each list are in alphabetical order.

Buffalo Bandits

In: Carter Bender, David Brock, Glen Bryan, Nick Cotter, Steve Dietrich (GM), Mike Hominuck, Mike McNamara, Jamie Rooney, Dhane Smith, Hayden Smith, Derek Suddons, Kurtis Wagar, Shawn Williams, Aaron Wilson
Out: Kevin Buchanan, Brandon Francis, Darryl Gibson, Angus Goodleaf, Travis Irving, Darris Kilgour (GM), Ian Llord, Tom Montour, Jeremy Thompson, Mike Thompson, Roger Vyse, Chris White
IR: Jordan Critch, Mat Giles, Jamie Rooney
PUP: Jimmy Purves
Holdout: Joe Smith, Scott Stewart
Practice Squad: Kevin Brownell, Craig England, Derek Hopcroft

 

Philadelphia Wings

In: Kevin Buchanan, C.J. Costabile, Kevin Croswell, Ethan Farrell, Tom Hajek (defensive coach), Will Harrington, Kyle Hartzell, Jake Lazore, Mike Manley, Paul Rabil, Kevin Ross, Brian Tueber, Joel White, Chad Weiedmaier
Out: David Brock, Dan Dawson, Paul Dawson, Dan Deckelbaum, Steve Fryer, Tom Hajek (player), Mike Hominuck, Brendan Mundorf (injured), Jordan Sealock, Joe Smith, Kurtis Wagar
IR: Matt Alrich, Jordan Hall, Dan Hardy, Eric Hoffman, Steve Grossi
PUP: John McFadyen, Brendan Mundorf
Holdout:
Practice Squad:

 

Rochester Knighthawks

In: Dan Dawson, Paul Dawson, Matt Hummel, Joel McCready, Casey Powell
Out: Ryan Cousins (injured), Jarrett Davis, Jordan Hall, Travis Hill, Pat McCready, Tim O’Brien, Joel White
IR:
PUP: Ryan Cousins
Holdout: Kyle Laverty
Practice Squad: Ian Llord, Cody McLeod, Tom Montour

 

Toronto Rock

In: Kyle Belton, Zak Boychuk, Scott Evans, Rob Hellyer, Brandon Ivey, Cody Jacobs, Chris White
Out: Glen Bryan, Pat Campbell, Dan Carey, Bruce Codd, Steve Dietrich (goalie coach), Scott Johnston, Jamie Rooney, Brendan Thenhaus
IR: Mike Lum-Walker, Phil Sanderson
PUP:
Holdout:
Practice Squad:

 

Calgary Roughnecks

In: Bruce Codd (coach), Jackson Decker, Matthew Dinsdale, Curt Malawsky (head coach), Aaron Pascas, Joe Resetarits, Brad Richardson
Out: Cory Conway, Mike Kilby, Ryan McNish, Dave Pym (head coach), Kaleb Toth
IR:
PUP:
Holdout:
Practice Squad: Barclay Hickey, Darren Kinnear

 

Colorado Mammoth

In: Colton Clark, Joey Cupido, Joel Dalgarno (did not play in 2012), Chet Koneczny, Richard Morgan, Matt Roik
Out: Alex Gajic, Ian Hawksbee, Derek Hopcroft, Jed Prossner, Jamie Shewchuk, Scott Stewart
IR:
PUP: Tye Belanger, John Orsen, Jarett Park
Holdout:
Practice Squad: Alex Demopoulos

 

Edmonton Rush

In: Mitch Banister, Mike Burke, Cory Conway, Jarrett Davis, Curtis Knight, Mark Matthews, Jeremy Thompson, Alex Turner
Out: Scott Evans, Jesse Fehr, Eric Lewthwaite, Derek Suddons, Steve Toll, Shawn Williams, Aaron Wilson
IR:
PUP:
Holdout: Tyler Codron
Practice Squad: Dave Marrese

 

Minnesota Swarm

In: Matt Gibson, Shayne Jackson, Pat Smith, Alex Crepinsek, Michael O’Brien, Kiel Matisz
Out: Todd Baxter, Joe Cinosky, Brendan Doran, Matt Kelly, John McClure, Richard Morgan, Kevin Ross
IR:
PUP: Brock Sorensen
Holdout:
Practice Squad: Zach Higgins, Ryan Masters, Tyler Tanguay

 

Washington Stealth

In: Jason Bloom (coach), Kyle Buchanan, Tyler Garrison, Tim Henderson, David Joyce, Mitch McMichael, Patrick O’Meara, Nick Patterson, Justin Pychel
Out: Jason Bloom (player), Kevin Croswell, Kyle Hartzell, Peter Jacobs, Eric Martin, Kyle Ross, Cam Sedgwick, Chris Seidel, Jeff Zywicki
IR: Billy Hostrawser, Drew Snider
PUP:
Holdout: Mitch Jones
Practice Squad: Brett Hickey, Mike Mallory, Justin Salt

Guest blogger Jack Goods at Bandits open practice

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We have a special guest blogger today: Jack Goods, who has written for both IL Indoor and In Lax We Trust. Jack was at the Buffalo Bandits’ open practice this morning, and filed this report which I am happy to provide here on NLL Chatter.

Bandits Open Practice Recap
By Jack Goods

The Bandits held their annual open practice today at the First Niagara Center and used the occasion to help unveil their new uniforms. The first primary uniform change in over ten years from the team, this year’s jerseys have a more modern feel. Many design aspects are similar to the All Star Jerseys worn in Buffalo last season. A few players, including John Tavares, Mark Steenhuis, Shawn Williams, Jay Thorimbert, and Scott Self were wearing the full uniforms which including name plates and numbers.

Of course the main event for fans was the actual practice and the chance to see many of the new Bandit players in action. After undergoing a pretty big overhaul this offseason many of the names on the roster handed out to fans were different than they names they saw last year. That added even more excitement to a day that usually gets the diehard fans in Banditland pumped up. A few players were notable in my eyes.

Derek Hopcroft showed off his skills quite nicely in both the drills and the scrimmage. One goal in particular stood out, a behind the net goal with his off hand. He showed lacrosse intelligence that many players just seem to lack. A young player who scored 15 goals last season for Colorado, Hopcroft could end up being a solid player on this year’s roster.

Nick Cotter, another new name, seemed to be on his game today as well. Although he sat out last season he doesn’t seem to have lost a step. He appeared to be one of the fastest and most in shape players out there, maybe due to playing with the Charlotte Copperheads of the PLL this fall.

This was the first chance for fans to see this year’s draft picks in their Bandits gear, and one thing jumped right out at me. Guys like Dhane Smith and Carter Bender are huge. The Bandits had issues with size recently but seem to have answered them. Dhane Smith made a few moves today that caught my eye and I noticed he is very fast for his size.

Marty Hill, Joel Matthews, Jimmy Purves, Jamie Rooney, and Scott Stewart all did not practice due to injuries. Although both currently on the physically unable to perform list, both Steenhuis and Self participated in practice. Steenhuis did take a Dhane Smith shot to the head early on, but returned after a short time.

This is a very good team this year; Bandits fans should be very excited. I look at this roster and think there are probably 27 players who could easily be on this team. Deitrich has brought in solid competition, winners, and a good mix of experience and youth. Although the Knighthawks have to be thought of as the front runners (especially since the Dawson trade) the Bandits shouldn’t be a push over this season.