2016 NLL Predictions

Posted on December 22, 2015 by Graeme

My predictions for the final regular season standings as well as the major annual awards. The “Dark Horse” predictions are my “not as likely but could happen” picks.

Final Standings

East

Rochester
Toronto
Buffalo
Georgia
New England

West

Saskatchewan
Vancouver
Colorado
Calgary

Individual Awards

MVP

Winner: Mark Matthews
Short list: Garrett Billings, Ryan Benesch
Dark horse: Brett Hickey

Goaltender of the Year

Winner: Aaron Bold
Short list: Matt Vinc, Dillon Ward
Dark horse: Nick Rose

Defensive Player of the Year

Winner: Sid Smith
Short list: Kyle Rubisch, Robert Hope
Dark horse: Ryan Dilks

Transition Player of the Year

Winner: Karsen Leung
Short list: Joey Cupido, Jordan MacIntosh
Dark horse: Alex Kedoh Hill

Rookie of the Year

Winner: Wes Berg
Short list: Randy Staats, Lyle Thompson, Jesse King
Dark horse: Reilly O’Connor

Les Bartley Award

Winner: Dan Perreault
Short list: Mike Hasen
Dark horse: Glenn Clark

GM of the Year

Winner: Doug Locker
Short list: I’m not sure whether I’d nominate the Swarm GM (whoever that is) if they do well, since I think I could have drafted just as well with that many first round picks in a draft that deep.
Dark horse: Jamie Dawick

2016 Preview: West division

Posted on December 21, 2015 by Graeme

A short summary of each team’s offseason moves, where I think they will end up in the standings, who might have a breakout year, and as always, a haiku for each team. I covered the East yesterday, today it’s the West.

Calgary Roughnecks

Roster Changes

Lost Evans, McBride, Pollock, Snider, Moleski, and Veltman and replaced them with Tyler Digby, a bunch of rookies, and a third goaltender. And they only have one person on their practice roster. If the rooks step up big, they could be OK but given their struggles last season with those big-name guys, this could be a scary season for the Roughnecks.

Then again, a few years ago the Roughnecks lost both Tracey Kelusky and Josh Sanderson in the off season and replaced them with Daryl Veltman and a rookie named Curtis Dickson. Everyone thought it would be a disaster but they went on to win the West with the best record in the league.

Look out for

Wes Berg. My pick for ROY. You can’t replace Shawn Evans, but Berg will certainly give it a shot.

Prediction

Fourth in the west.

Haiku

Tyler Digby’s here
Two Carnegies, two Harnetts
Only one de Snoo

Colorado Mammoth

Roster Changes

The Mammoth are down Drew Westervelt and Alex Turner (91 points) but Callum Crawford (on pace for 80 last year) should make up for most of that. They also have Ilija Gajic returning; ironically they signed him as a free agent right after cutting Bob Snider, the guy they traded Gajic for. They also released Dan Ball and Ian Hawksbee and lost Cam Flint and Tyler Codron to injury. John Gallant, the only remaining original Mammoth, didn’t play much last season so his retirement won’t have a huge impact. They did sign Greg Downing from the Swarm and added a group of rookies.

Look out for

Ilija Gajic. He and Joey Cupido will make a pretty awesome transition team.

Prediction

Third in the west

Haiku

No more Westervelt
But added Callum Crawford
And Ilija is back

Saskatchewan Rush

Roster Changes

Same team as last year, plus Curtis Knight. The west is theirs to lose. Not much more to say than that.

Look out for

Ben McIntosh was third on the team in scoring last year but I can see him leaping over Robert Church into second. Not sure he’ll surpass Mark Matthews though.

Prediction

First in the west

Haiku

Curtis Knight is back
Great O, great D, best goalie
Can the Rush repeat?

Vancouver Stealth

Roster Changes

Lost Digby but added Billings. Added Beers, Moleski, Cornwall, and Hawksbee. Lost Hass and Rory Smith but only temporarily. So far, the most improved team in the league. But they also lost Tyler Richards. Eric Penney has played 346 minutes in his career with a GAA of almost 15. Chris Levis hasn’t played an NLL game since January 25, 2013 – almost three years. If the goaltending doesn’t pan out, they may need to score 16 goals a game to have any chance of success.

The Stealth had 5 guys named Tyler on their team last season, but they’re starting 2016 with only one. Can they survive?

Look out for

Garrett Billings. Hardly an out-on-a-limb prediction, but 2015 was very un-Billings-like. With extra recovery and practice time plus playing in his home town with Duch, Schuss, Small, and McCready I think Billings will be back to his Toronto Rock level of dominance.

Prediction

Second in the west.

Haiku

Billings has come home
Stealth have rebuilt the defense
But Richards is gone

2016 NLL: Who’s in, who’s out

Posted on December 18, 2015 by Graeme

All of the roster changes in one article! That’s why you pay the big bucks to read this blog.

Note that these are the changes as of the final roster from last season, so a player might be listed as “In” even if he played for that team during last season.

Buffalo Bandits

In: Matthew Bennett, Tyler Ferreira, Brandon Goodwin, Anthony Malcolm, Daryl Veltman
Out: David Brock, Chad Culp, Derek Suddons, John Tavares, Kurtis Wagar, Andrew Watt
IR: Andrew Watt
PUP:
Holdout:
Practice Roster: David Brock, Tim Edwards, Craig England, Adam Will
Suspended: Chad Culp

The first ever Bandits roster with no Tavares. Culp is only out for one game.

Georgia Swarm

In: Reid Acton, Josh Gillam, Jesse King, Drew Petkoff, Randy Staats, Lyle Thompson, Chad Tutton
Out: Sam Bradman, Greg Downing, Jordan Houtby, Brodie MacDonald, Shane MacDonald, Patrick Miles, Corbyn Tao
IR:
PUP: Brodie MacDonald, Michael Seidel
Holdout:
Practice Roster: Thomas Hoggarth, Marcus Holman, Jordan Houtby, Sean Young

The Swarm only have one goalie on their roster for now, but Brodie MacDonald says he’s only out for a short while with a chest cold.

New England Black Wolves

In: Dan Ball, Sheldon Burns, Kevin Crowley, Shawn Evans, Mike MacDonald, Shane MacDonald, Brian Megill, Quinn Powless, John Ranagan, Derek Suddons
Out: Garrett Billings, Mark Cockerton, Matt Crough, Michael Diehl, Craig England, Josh Johnson, Jamie Lincoln, Mike Manley, Mike McNamara, Drew Petkoff
IR: Mike Manley, Mike McNamara, Andrew Suitor
PUP:
Holdout:
Practice Roster: Phil Caputo, Wenster Green, Zac Reid, Pete Rennie

Wow, huge turnover from the Black Wolves / Wings organization! Who saw that coming?

Rochester Knighthawks

In: Adam Bomberry, Graeme Hossack, Brandon Styres
Out: Colin Boucher, Angus Goodleaf, Zac Reid, Brad Self
IR:
PUP: Angus Goodleaf, Brad Self
Holdout:
Practice Roster: Brad Gillies, Joel Matthews, Derek Searle, Ty Thompson

Can you imagine? An NLL GM signs his own son! Crazy.

Toronto Rock

In: Glen Bryan, Turner Evans, Dan Lintner, Luc Magnan
Out: Kevin Crowley, Damon Edwards, Kevin Ross, Josh Sanderson
IR: Scott Johnston
PUP: Damon Edwards, Kevin Ross, Josh Sanderson
Holdout:
Practice Roster: Kyle Acquin, Steve Fryer, Jordan Robertson
Protected: Mike Grimes

The loss of Josh Sanderson is huge for the Rock – with respect to JT, likely the biggest loss for any team.

Calgary Roughnecks

In: Tyson Bell, Wesley Berg, Mitch de Snoo, Christian Del Bianco, Tyler Digby, Kellen LeClair, Garrett McIntosh, Reilly O’Connor
Out: Shawn Evans, Andrew McBride, Pete McFetridge, Jeff Moleski, Sean Pollock, Geoff Snider, Daryl Veltman
IR: Pete McFetridge
PUP:
Holdout:
Practice Roster: Patrick O’Meara

That’s a lotta big names replaced with Tyler Digby and a group of rookies.

Colorado Mammoth

In: Callum Crawford, Jackson Decker, Greg Downing, Ilija Gajic, Jordan Gilles, Josh Sullivan, Bryce Sweeting, Chris Wardle
Out: Dan Ball, Tyler Codron, Cam Flint, Ian Hawksbee, Colton Porter, Alex Turner, Drew Westervelt, Mike Woods
IR: Tyler Codron
PUP: Cam Flint
Holdout:
Practice Roster: Conrad Chapman, Jamie Lincoln, Mike Woods

Lots of changes in Colorado as well but adding Crawford and Gajic strengthens an already-strong offense.

Saskatchewan Rush

In: Curtis Knight
Out: Matthew Dinsdale, Matt MacGrotty
IR:
PUP: Matthew Dinsdale
Holdout:
Practice Roster: Doug Buchan, Jakob Doucet, Matt MacGrotty, Dan Taylor

Wow, very little turnover from the defending champs! Who saw that coming?

Vancouver Stealth

In: Matt Beers, Garrett Billings, Travis Cornwall, Jordan Durston, Ian Hawksbee, Brier Jonathan, Chris Levis, Jeff Moleski
Out: Tyler Burton, Tyler Digby, Ilija Gajic, Tyler Hass, Brad Kri, Tyler Richards, Rory Smith, Jarrett Toll
IR: Tyler Hass, Rory Smith
PUP:
Holdout:
Practice Roster: Keegan Bal, Cody Hagedorn, Jarrett Toll, Ryan Wagner

Possibly the most improved team on paper, except at goaltender. No disrespect to Eric Penney and Chris Levis, but replacing Tyler Richards is a pretty tall order.

5 things you never knew about the NLL! #3 will shock you

Posted on November 11, 2015 by Graeme

I originally started this article as a joke, playing on the popularity of sites like Buzzfeed and their click-baity “you won’t believe what happened next”-type headlines. But then I wondered if I could come up with 5 actual things that many NLL fans didn’t know and I hadn’t used on @NLLFactOfTheDay (and that I don’t have to fit into 140 characters). Many people know that John Tavares the (former) lacrosse player is the uncle of John Tavares the hockey player. Many know that Josh Sanderson played for his father Terry (four times, actually: Rochester, Calgary, and Toronto twice). Many know that there are far more failed NLL teams than there are current teams.

But did you know these?

1. Before they secured nll.com, the league’s website was be-lax.com. (OK, I could have squeezed that one into a tweet.)

2. The Calgary Roughnecks once drafted former Calgary Flames star Gary Roberts (after he had retired from hockey). He said he was flattered and surprised, but did not report. The Bandits once drafted Gil Nieuwendyk, Joe’s brother and Derek Keenan’s brother-in-law. He never reported either.

3. The 2007 Championship final was hosted by the Arizona Sting rather than the top seed Rochester Knighthawks because of arena unavailability. A circus had booked the Blue Cross Arena and no alternative arena in Rochester could be found. A 2002 playoff game between the 5th place Washington Power and the 6th place Philadelphia Wings was held in Philadelphia because Washington decided they’d lose more money by hosting it than by travelling.

4. In 2001, the league accidentally posted an article on its web site announcing expansion to Montreal before the deal was actually done. The article was immediately pulled and the deal was put on hold. The Montreal Express joined the league a year later.

5. In 2007, the Arizona Sting went on hiatus and the players were loaned to other teams for a year (through a dispersal draft), the idea being that when Arizona returned the next season, they’d continue with the team they had before. After the 2008 season, the players were returned to the Sting, where the team promptly folded and they were dispersed again.

Did I fool you? One of those five is not true; I made it up. But which one?

The NLL’s most successful franchise

Posted on November 4, 2015 by Graeme

It’s a cycle that almost every pro sports team goes through. If you look back over the history of most teams that have been around for a while, they’ve had periods where they’re really good, at or near the top of the league, and then other periods where they’re terrible. Think of any team that’s been successful over the last year or two: the Royals in baseball, the Clippers in basketball, the Islanders in hockey. It wasn’t that long ago that all three of those teams were terrible, near the bottom of their respective leagues.

Alternatively, think of any team that’s been terrible over the last few years: the Knicks, the Oilers, the Phillies. I can certainly remember times when those teams were at the top of their leagues. Every team has times where they’re really great and times where they’re really bad. Even the Cubs won the NL Central three times from 2003-2008.

This has certainly happened in the NLL as well. The Edmonton Rush were arguably the best team of each of the last two years but were terrible for a decade before that. The Washington Stealth went to the Championship in three out of their four seasons, but were 4-12 and dead last in the fourth. The Wings won 6 Championships in their first 15 years, then only made the playoffs 3 times in their last 12. The Rock, Bandits, and Mammoth have each won championships and also sat near the bottom of the league during the last 10 years. The Minnesota Swarm may be a bit of an outlier here; they were never a really great team and never reached the finals, but they were a very good team for a few years, getting to the division finals twice. On the flipside, their last couple of years in Minnesota were pretty bad.

(Aside: The NLL is a little different because of the team turnover. I’m only looking at teams that have been around for ten years or more. There are a lot of teams who didn’t have a long enough existence to consider. The New Jersey / Anaheim Storm, Ottawa Rebel, and Montreal Express never stuck around long enough to get good. The Arizona Sting went to 2 Championships in 4 years but never finished above 9-7 or below 7-9.)

But in the NLL, there are two oddball teams that have mostly defied the longevity rule.

The Calgary Roughnecks were terrible in their first season, when they finished 4-12. But in the 13 seasons since then, they have only finished below .500 twice, have never missed the playoffs, and have finished with 10+ wins 7 times. Even last year when they started 0-6 and finished 7-11, they managed to get to the Western finals. Other than their debut season (when you kind of expect a team to suck) and for part of 2015, the Roughnecks have never really been terrible.

But take a look at the Rochester Knighthawks. In their twenty-one seasons, they have only finished below .500 three times, and all three times they were just below .500 at 7-9. What’s more: they won the Championship in one of those 7-9 seasons. Let me say that another way: they won the Championship in 2012 after finishing the regular season tied for the worst record in franchise history. They have only missed the playoffs twice in 21 years and as we all remember, are the only team ever to win three straight Championships. In their debut season, they went to the Championship (and lost it in OT).

If you had to pick the most successful NLL franchise during its existence, you could argue the Rock might be the best choice given the number of Championships in that time. But they had a four year stretch where they were 10 games under .500 and missed the playoffs twice. The Wings were one of the best choices for the first half of their lifetime, and one of the worst choices for the second half. The Roughnecks would also have been a very good option, but they’ve had strong regular season numbers and not so much in the playoffs.

For my money, the Rochester Knighthawks win the prize. They have never had a single terrible season, but have had some outstanding ones. I know it’s no 22 in a row, Bandits fans, but they won 16 straight games from 2007-2008. They have never finished last in their division. They have won five Championships and appeared in four more, and have seen some of the best players in the game on their benches including the Gaits, John Grant, Shawn Williams, Shawn Evans, Dan Dawson, Cody Jamieson, and Matt Vinc.

They say any NLL team can beat any other on any given night. This is mostly true for the non-Charlottes and non-Anaheims of the league. But let’s face it, there were years that this was not true for the Rock, Bandits, Mammoth, or Roughnecks. But there has never been a time when playing the Knighthawks that they didn’t have a good chance of beating you.

NLL Trades: one big, two bigger

Posted on October 30, 2015 by Graeme

After the huge trades we saw at the trade deadline last year involving names like Billings, Suitor, Powless, and Schuss, you’d think the NLL might be all blockbuster’ed out for a while. It lasted about half a year before we started seeing some more “holy crap” trades. But it all seems like one big trade involving almost half the teams in the league. I almost started to lose track of who went where, so I’ll break it down.

Billings went from Toronto to New England for Kevin Crowley but then Crowley was sent back to New England for Dan Lintner while Billings was sent to Vancouver for Tyler Digby who was then traded to Calgary for Shawn Evans. And a bunch of draft picks changed hands as well.

Got it?

OK. At the trade deadline last season, Garrett Billings was sent to New England for Kevin Crowley. As posited by me and totally unconfirmed and uncorroborated, this deal included a gentleman’s agreement that Crowley would be sent back to New England at the end of the season. This happened in early October, as Crowley was traded to the Black Wolves for draft pick Dan Lintner and a second round pick in 2016. This wasn’t quite a Holy Crap trade, but it was significant.

But the combination of Crowley and Billings on the same roster was not to be. Holy Crap Trade #1 happened two weeks later, sending Billings to Vancouver in exchange for Tyler Digby and a second round pick in 2017. This is where Billings’ part of the story ends. He’s now playing in his home town of Langley, and western goalies are very worried about the impact he’ll have on guys like Rhys Duch and Corey Small. But we weren’t done yet. A day later, Holy Crap Trade #2 happened.

Tyler Digby, it was said, wanted to be in the East because he recently moved to Pennsylvania. But the ink on his trade to New England was barely dry before he was traded again. Digby went to the Calgary Roughnecks for who else but the reigning league MVP, Shawn Freaking Evans, who wanted to play closer to his home in Peterborough. New England’s first round draft picks in 2018 and 2019 now also belong to Calgary, and Calgary’s third round pick in 2018 goes to New England. This marks only the second time in league history that the current MVP was traded, the first being Gary Gait who was sent from Philadelphia to Baltimore in 1998. But as surprising as the Evans trade was, the Gait trade blows it away. At that point, Gait had won three straight MVP awards and after the trade, he won the next two as well.

Did you sense the trend here? Billings is back home. Evans is closer to home. Crowley lives in Philadelphia, so he’s also closer to home. Digby wanted to be, but it didn’t work out. And the reason Gait was traded in 1998? To be closer to his home in Baltimore.

The trades themselves might have been surprising, but if the reasoning behind them surprises you, you’re obviously new here. Welcome to the NLL.

In a nutshell

I’ll break down my impressions of each team’s outlook once the rosters are announced in December, but here’s the end result for now:

Toronto is down Kevin Crowley and up Dan Lintner and a second.

New England is down Billings and two first rounders (in 3 years), and up Shawn Freaking Evans and a third.

Vancouver is down Tyler Digby and up Garrett Billings

Calgary is down Shawn Freaking Evans, and up Tyler Digby and two firsts.

NLL musical selections

Posted on June 14, 2015 by Graeme

Many teams play music in the dressing room to get ready for games, and I imagine every team makes different choices.

Here are the favourite musical selections for each NLL team in 2015.

Buffalo Bandits

Calgary Roughnecks

Colorado Mammoth

Edmonton Rush

Minnesota Swarm

New England Black Wolves

Rochester Knighthawks

Toronto Rock

Vancouver Stealth

Shawn Evans: MVP? Maybe not

Posted on May 22, 2015 by Graeme

Shawn Evans has had an excellent 2015 NLL season. That’s unquestionable. But is he the league’s MVP? Some would argue yes, others may disagree. The Roughnecks are certainly campaigning in that direction. But you can’t just look at the points and assists records, there are other things to take into consideration. Let’s examine the pros and cons:

Pro: Outstanding offensive numbers:

Set a new record for points in a season with 130
Tied record (set the day before) for assists in a season with 83
6th in league in goals (48), 1st in shorthanded goals (5)

Con: Some numbers not so great:

Only 4 power play goals, second-lowest among Calgary forwards
Only one forward (Cody Jamieson) spent more time in the penalty box
0 face-off wins
0 saves

Pro: Team player: led his team from 0-6 start into the playoffs

Con: Is he really a team player? He played ZERO games as backup goalie. Corbyn Tao has him beat there.

Pro: Three cute daughters, including twins born last year

Con: That was last year. Nothing this season. Plus, his wife arguably did most of the work

Pro: Already has his name on the trophy so getting the engraving spelled correctly won’t be an issue

Con: Already has his name on the trophy. NLL doesn’t like to give the MVP award to the same player more than once

Pro: First in every category among Shawns in the league.

Con: Middle of the pack among current or former NLL players named “S. Evans”, when listed alphabetically

Pro: If the other team has quick transition, can play pretty good defense

Con: Steals valuable playing minutes from Roughneck defenders

Pro: Proved that you don’t need to be big to be a great offensive player

Con: Josh Sanderson proved that years before

Pro: Good lookin’ dude.

Con: No cool braid like the Thompson boys.

Hmmmm… looks like the jury’s still out.

(Photo credit: 120 Sports)

2015 Predictions revisited

Posted on May 13, 2015 by Graeme

As many sports bloggers do, I made predictions at the beginning of the season. But as many sports bloggers don’t do, I’m going to go back and see what they were and how I did. I covered some of these on last week’s Addicted to Lacrosse show. I recently had to submit my votes for the IL Indoor annual awards, so for each of the awards below, I’ve listed my pre-season prediction as well as my post-season votes.

Standings:

East

Rochester
Buffalo
Toronto
Minnesota
New England

West

Calgary
Edmonton
Colorado
Vancouver

Three correct out of nine. I wasn’t nearly as optimistic with the Rock as I should have been. I was also far too optimistic with the Roughnecks, but so was everybody else.

Annual Awards