Category Archives: Predictions

2013 Preview: Buffalo Bandits

Posted on by

BanditsThe 2012 season started off just fine for the Buffalo Bandits. They hosted the rival Toronto Rock and beat them 14-10. The next week they travelled to Rochester and beat their other rivals 12-9. Then the troubles started. Five weeks later, they were 2-6 and their coach was calling them stupid, a bunch of bush leaguers, and questioning their heart. This was a lack of success with which the Bandits organization was unfamiliar, at least lately. The Bandits hadn’t finished below .500 since 1999, and finished first or tied for first in the East in four of the previous six seasons.

Still, after all the drama they went 5-3 in the second half and ended up tied for second in the East (dropped to fourth due to tiebreakers). Anthony Cosmo allowed a mere 7 Toronto goals in the division semi-final, but Nick Rose only allowed 6, ending what was not likely Darris Kilgour’s favourite NLL season. After the season, I predicted “There will be lots of changes coming for the Bandits this offseason” and lo and behold, I was right. Not that this was a particularly Earth-shattering prediction.

Roster changes

Steve Dietrich has only had the Bandits GM job since July but he’s been one of the busiest GMs in the league since then. Gone are Kevin Buchanan and Jeremy Thompson (both traded), Darryl Gibson and Mike Thompson (both retired), Brandon Francis, Travis Irving, Tom Montour, Ian Llord, Angus Goodleaf, and Roger Vyse (released), and former captain Chris White (signed with Toronto). A whole pile of new faces will don the orange and black in 2013, many of whom, strangely, are former Toronto Rock players. This list includes former Bandit (and Rock) Shawn Williams, Aaron Wilson, Jamie Rooney, Mike Hominuck, Glen Bryan, and Derek Suddons. Even Dietrich himself was the backup goalie in Toronto for one season, and goalie coach for one more. There are a few non-former-Rock additions as well: David Brock, Nick Cotter, and Kurtis Wagar.

There are also three rookies on the Bandits roster. Last year the Bandits had two Thompsons, this year they have three Smiths – all defenders. Billy Dee returns for his tenth season in a Bandits uniform, and his cousin Dhane was Buffalo’s first draft pick (5th overall) in the entry draft. Hayden was Buffalo’s second round pick, 13th overall, and is not related to the other two Smiths. The other rookie is Carter Bender, a forward who was taken 18th overall in the draft.

But even given the number of new faces on the team this year, some things never change: John Tavares, who has never played for the Rock (nor any NLL team other than Buffalo), returns for his eleventy-millionth season.

Burning question

Darris Kilgour the GM is gone but Darris Kilgour the head coach remains. Did the Bandits keep the right one?

Prediction

Third in the east because half the team is new, and it will take time for them all to gel together. But if they do that quickly and the Powell/Dawson/Jamieson experiment doesn’t work out, the Bandits could win the east.

Haiku

Many new Bandits
Chugger’s been a busy guy
JT’s still here, natch

2013 Preview: Washington Stealth

Posted on by

StealthAfter winning the Championship in 2010 and going to the finals again in 2011, the Stealth finished dead last in 2012, the only team out of the playoffs. Safe to say that nobody saw that coming. Head coach Chris Hall missed about six games at the beginning of the season but when he returned, nothing changed. Jeff Zywicki missed five games in February but when he returned, nothing changed. Tyler Richards missed three games in February and March but when he returned, nothing changed. The offense was struggling and they traded Paul Rabil for Athan Iannucci, but nothing changed. Things seemed to be turning around in March, when they beat Toronto, split a home-and-home with Colorado, then after losing to the Rush they scored 20 against the Swarm. I started to wonder if maybe the Stealth would gain some momentum at the end of the season and even if they didn’t make the playoffs, go out with a bang. But the bang turned to a whimper as they lost their last four.

Roster changes

I said in my west division wrap-up last year that “it wouldn’t surprise me if the 2013 Stealth isn’t significantly different from the 2012 Stealth” which is a confusingly-worded way of saying that I didn’t expect any huge changes. But I didn’t expect them to do almost nothing. Cam Sedgwick and former captain Jason Bloom both retired and joined the coaching staff, and Kyle Hartzell was traded to Philadelphia. That’s it. Veteran Jeff Zywicki was also cut during training camp, but he’s been battling injury problems for a couple of years; he missed a bunch of games last year and most of 2011.

Burning question

This team isn’t really as bad as they looked last year, are they?

Prediction

No. I think they can battle Colorado for the middle of the pack in the west, but they won’t catch the Swarm or Roughnecks. Fourth in the west.

Haiku

Zywicki, Bloom: gone
Lots of rookies join the team
Return to glory?

2013 Preview: Minnesota Swarm

Posted on by

SwarmI don’t think it’s a stretch to say that the 2012 Swarm season went beyond any but the most optimistic expectations. I picked them to finish last in the West last year (as did others), but a third-place prediction wouldn’t have been completely crazy. But third best offense in the league? Two rookie goaltenders, one of whom ends up with the best GAA and save percentage in the league? Third best defense in the league? Taking out the mighty Colorado Mammoth in the playoffs? Did not see that coming.

Roster changes

I was going to describe the roster changes as “nothing huge”, but Richard Morgan is huge. He’s off to Colorado, Kevin Ross to Philly, and Brendan Doran to Buffalo. But the most important changes aren’t who’s gone, but who’s arriving. The Swarm had the number 2, 3, and 4 picks in the draft, and all three are expected to be on the floor (at some point – Brock Sorensen starts the year on the IR) for Minnesota this year. Sorensen, one of the most coveted players in the draft, is a big defender, Kiel Matisz (I believe that’s pronounced like “Kyle muh-TEES” – pronunciation is important to me) is a big forward, and Shayne Jackson is not a big forward – at 5’9″ he’s eight inches shorter than Matisz or Sorensen – but if you send your big Rich Morgan-type defenders out to cover Matisz, Jackson will just run between their legs.

I wonder if now that teams have had a full season’s look at Evan Kirk, some might have figured him out, at least to some extent. Is he headed for the dreaded sophomore slump? Maybe, but having Tyler Carlson as a #1a goaltender makes that less critical. If they both struggle the Swarm may have trouble, but they have both shown they can start in the NLL. It’s hard to predict that Kirk will have a better season than 2012 (best GAA and best save % among goalies with >150 minutes), but even a small drop would still leave Minnesota with possibly the best goalie combo in the league – if Kirk’s GAA was 15% higher than it was, he’d still be in the top 5.

Burning question

Did the 2012 Swarm overachieve, or are they really that good?

Prediction

I think they are. And if their new crop of rookies perform as well as last year’s crop, 2012 might have been the first of a number of great seasons for the Swarm. Second in the west.

Haiku

Surprisingly good
Rookies did the job last year
Still getting better

2013 Preview: Edmonton Rush

Posted on by

RushAt the end of the 2012 regular season, the Rush were the least likely team to make the finals (other than the Stealth). Despite a strong second half of the season, they were 6-10, had lost two in a row, and faced the 12-4 Calgary Roughnecks in the first round. But the Rush found a way to not only pull off a win against the Riggers, but they did it convincingly, winning 19-11. The next game was even more convincing, a 15-3 drubbing of the Minnesota Swarm which put them in the Championship game for the first time in franchise history. The final game started off looking like it would be more of the same for the Rush, as they led the Knighthawks 5-1 at halftime. But the ‘Hawks scored 8 of the last 9 goals, including 7 in a row, to pull off the comeback. The Rush got farther into the playoffs than they ever had before but I imagine they are still disappointed with the result.

Only one team gave up fewer goals than the Rush in 2012, but nobody scored fewer. Their top two scorers, Shawn Williams and Ryan Ward, were 16th and 28th in the league respectively.

Roster changes

So if your team is struggling offensively but sparkles defensively, what do you do? I know! Trade your top scorer and another veteran scorer who had an off year and bring in transition guys! Sounds dumb, right? Well, maybe not. Yes, losing Williams will hurt, but Wilson wasn’t the offensive threat they expected him to be. Wilson scored just over half the points he had in Minnesota in 2011 and just over a third of what he had in 2010. Scott Evans was also released, though he missed the last few games of the season and the playoffs anyway. But they did get Cory Conway from Calgary, so that will replace some of the offense.

And then there’s Mark Matthews.

The hype around this guy is unreal, and it seems that some people are expecting Matthews to look like John Grant right out of the gate. Obviously that’s a bit unrealistic, but 60+ points is almost expected, and an Adam Jones / Kevin Crowley-type rookie season (75+ points) would not be out of the question. The Rush have also added Alex Turner, who didn’t play last year but picked up 39 points for the Wings in 2011, and rookie Curtis Knight (along with Matthews) has previously played for Rush GM and head coach Derek Keenan in his role as coach of the Whitby Warriors.

The Rush lost Derek Suddons (traded) and Steve Toll (CLax) but gained Jarrett Davis and Jeremy Thompson so defense and transition still look good, and Aaron Bold and Brodie MacDonald form one of the better goalie tandems in the NLL, so no problems on that end.

The loss of Paul Rabil means nothing, since neither he nor the guy he replaced, Athan Iannucci, played a single game for the Rush last year.

Burning questions

Should we just give Mark Matthews the Rookie of the Year award now?

Also, will the Rush come back down to Earth after their rise to the Championship game, or did their strong play in the 2012 playoffs give them the confidence the team has lacked for years?

Prediction

By the numbers, Conway + Matthews could offset Williams + Wilson + 3/4 of Evans. But trying to set your offense up to be better than that of the 2012 Rush is not that lofty a goal. As good a goal-scorer as Shawn Williams is, he’s one of the best passers in the history of the league. Can Matthews or Conway or anyone else step up and be that guy?

I’m just not sure about the Rush. Anywhere from first to fifth in the west is possible, but my uncertainty keeps pushing them down. Calgary will be great, Minnesota and Colorado really good, and I don’t think Washington is as bad as last year make them look, which leaves Edmonton. I don’t really see them as a last-place team but someone has to finish last, and I’m just less unsure about the other teams. I’m going to have to say fifth in the west.

Haiku

Lost Williams, Wilson
But wait, help is on the way
Matthews is the man

2013 Preview: Colorado Mammoth

Posted on by

MammothThe 2012 Colorado Mammoth season may be one of the biggest turnarounds in recent memory. It isn’t a “worst-to-first” story, since they weren’t in last in 2011 nor were they in first in 2012. But going from a .313 season to a .688 season in one year is pretty impressive. Of course, John Grant having one of the best offensive seasons ever will help, as will rookies scoring 76 (Jones) and 46 (Lincoln) points. Just how good would this team have been if Mac Allen had played more than 3 games?

Roster changes

No huge trades for the Mammoth. They acquired Richard Morgan from the Swarm and signed free agents Chet Koneczny and Matt Roik. They did trade Derek Hopcroft, who has a very promising rookie season, to the Bandits though he didn’t actually make the team. Oddly, just as they get Joel Dalgarno back after he missed 2012 entirely due to firefighter training, they will lose Ian Hawksbee for 2013 for the same reason. Transition guy Jed Prossner retired, Scott Stewart was signed by Buffalo, and both John Orsen and Jarett Park begin the season on the PUP list.

Two surprising cuts during training camp were forwards Jamie Shewchuk, acquired from the Swarm mid-season last year, and Alex Gajic.

Burning question

Is this John Grant guy for real? I mean really, one pretty decent season and people are all “best player ever”…

Prediction

Third in the west.

Haiku

Grant is the leader
Last year was record-setting
Only one Gajic left

2013 Preview: Calgary Roughnecks

Posted on by

RoughnecksThe Roughnecks will have almost exactly the same team team in 2013 as they had in 2012, when they led the league during the regular season but flamed out (Ha! Calgary joke) in the playoffs. One of the few changes they did make was to fire head coach Dave Pym after three successful regular seasons (finishing second in the West once and first twice) but a total of one playoff win. Pym is now a western scout for the Rock (although strangely, has retained his “RiggerCoach” twitter handle); obviously the Philadelphia Wings missed my article saying that he’d be a good fit there. At least this way, Pym didn’t have to move from Alberta.

So Curt Malawsky will shuffle down the bench to become the head coach of the Roughnecks after being an assistant coach (under Pym) for three years. Malawsky ran the offense and will likely continue that role, while former Roughneck Bruce Codd, who played for the Rock last year, has retired to become the defensive coach.

Roster changes

On the floor, the biggest changes are the addition of Aaron Pascas from the Rock, the departure of Cory Conway to the Rush, and the retirement of veteran Kaleb Toth. Toth scored 50 or more points in nine of the previous ten seasons, and only missed seven games (playing 179) in his entire career before 2012. But he was frustrated by injuries last year and picked up only 8 points in 7 games. Toth is well-respected throughout the league, particularly in Calgary, but will always be remembered by Rock fans as the kid who scored The Goal, the last goal ever scored at Maple Leaf Gardens.

Pascas only has one year under his belt, while Conway has played 5 seasons, averaging twice the points per game that Pascas picked up back in 2011, so this is a bit of a drop in production. But if any team can handle a bit of a production drop it’s Calgary – only the Mammoth outscored Calgary last season, and they only outscored them by one.

Burning question

Was Dave Pym the problem? Or will the Roughnecks continue their ongoing San Jose Sharks impression of kicking butt in the regular season and underachieving in the playoffs?

Prediction

The current NLL record for most consecutive seasons with 10+ wins is held by both Toronto and Buffalo with five. 2012 was Calgary’s fourth in a row, and I don’t see any reason why they can’t tie the record in 2013. Their offense is outstanding, defense is great, and Mike Poulin is the reigning goalie of the year. First in the west.

Haiku

Dave Pym, Kaleb Toth
Both gone, but no one can get
Through the Poulin Wall

Championship pick

Posted on by

After going 2-2 in the first round, I completely blew the division finals, going 0-2. So it comes down to yet another difficult pick – Edmonton or Rochester.

Edmonton is hot right now, winning two games they weren’t expected to win. Their goalie and defense, which have been great all year, are still great but the offense is the surprising part. It’s only been two games, but after averaging a league-low 10.4 goals per game in the regular season, the Rush are averaging 17 in the playoffs. Can they keep it up for one more game?

Rochester has the best of both worlds – lots of young players like Jamieson, Keogh, and Powless as well as veterans like Vinc (has he really played seven seasons? I still think of him as one of the new goalies on the block), Accursi, McCready, and Cousins. They had an inconsistent season, with two separate three-game losing streaks, but played very well against both Philadelphia and Toronto to earn their way to the Big Game. Can they keep it up for one more game?

Record: 2-4 (.333)

Game

Comments

Pick
EDM @ ROC

I have to take the hot team here. We’ve known their defense and goaltending was excellent since the beginning of the year, and I had a feeling (and I know others did as well) that their offense was better than they were showing. The Knighthawks have Matt Vinc who can certainly steal a game, and Johnny Powless is quickly turning into one of the most exciting players in the game, but Shawn Williams, Steve Toll, and Aaron Bold are all former Knighthawks, and I’m sure they’d love to win a Championship against their former team. (Scott Evans too, but he’s likely to be on the bench.) This may be Steve Toll’s last NLL season, so his teammates would love to send him off with a Championship.

 Rush

Division finals picks

Posted on by

I was 2-2 in my first week of playoff picks. I felt relatively confident in my western picks, Calgary and Colorado, and not very confident on my eastern picks, Toronto and Rochester. The result: I totally nailed the east and totally pooched the west. But that said, who would have predicted both Edmonton and Minnesota upsets? I said last week that I could see Minnesota pulling off the upset in that game, but went with Colorado anyway. I thought that the chances of Edmonton pulling off such an upset were non-zero, but pretty darned small. Obviously, I did not give Edmonton the credit that they deserved. Apologies and huge kudos to the Rush, and kudos to the Swarm as well for their first-ever playoff win. One of these teams will advance to the Championship game, a place that neither has ever been before. This is fantastic not only for these two franchises and cities, but for the league as well.

Of this weeks picks, I feel relatively confident on one (Rock) and not at all confident on the other (Swarm). If last week is any indication, that means I’ll totally nail the west and totally pooch the east.

Record: 2-2 (.500)

Game

Comments

Pick
ROC @ TOR The Rock were 3-0 against the Knighthawks this year. They also have an eight game winning streak against Rochester, and have won ten of the last eleven games (we won’t talk about the previous nine, all of which the Knighthawks won) so that means the Rock will win, right? Sure. Just ask the Roughnecks.
The Knighthawks have the firepower, defense, goaltending, and veteran leadership to beat anyone. But the Rock have more of all of those things. Normally I’d rank Matt Vinc above a rookie starter who’s only started 7 games in his career, but Rose is on a roll and the team has a lot of confidence in him. I think the Rock will ride that wave right into their third straight Champion’s Cup game.		 Rock5_thumb
EDM @ MIN Wow, this might be one of the hardest picks all season. Both teams are brimming with confidence right now and both have hot goaltenders. Minnesota has had the better offense all season, but the Rush put up 19 against the Goaltender of the Year (though recovering from concussion) last weekend. But I can’t call a tie – I gotta pick someone. The Rush lost their last two games of the season and then beat the Roughnecks so that could be a fluke, while the Swarm have won five in a row now. I’m going to have to go with the Swarm. Swarm

Division semi-final picks

Posted on by

My overall record during the regular season was 31-41 (0.431). If I only get three of the seven playoff games right, I’m at .428, so I need to finish above .500 in the playoffs to beat my regular season record. Everyone wants to do better in the playoffs than they did in the regular season, right?

Despite what my picks for the first round look like, I did not just go with the higher ranked team. Well, I did, but I actually did think about each game.

Record: 0-0

Game

Comments

Pick
BUF @ TOR Of the three possible opponents for the Rock in the first round, this was my least favourite option as a Rock fan. I was hoping the Rock would face Rochester while the Wings disposed of the Bandits. Then the Rock could take out the Wings and head to the final again. It doesn’t matter how bad the Bandits were in the early (or even mid) part of this year – they played pretty well at the end, Cosmo seems to have found his stride, and the team is playing with confidence. This could be a really close game, going back and forth all night and finally solved by overtime, or it could be a blowout, one way or the other. None of those options would surprise me. Rock5
PHI @ ROC On March 23, the Wings were 7-4 and in first place in the East. Since then, they’re 0-5 and have scored 10 or fewer goals in 4 of those games. They’re outta time to turn things around – it’s now or never. The Knighthawks aren’t exactly flying into the playoffs either, having lost four of their last six. But one of those wins was against the Wings and the other was against the powerhouse Roughnecks, so things aren’t all bad. Knighthawks5
EDM @ CAL I like the Rush. Aaron Bold is my Goalie of the Year choice, Rubisch (my Defender of the Year choice) and Corbeil are two of the best defenders in the league, and Shawn Williams and Steve Toll are two of my all-time favourite players. Could they beat the Roughnecks? Could their defense and goaltending shut down the potent Calgary offense long enough for their forwards to put a few by Poulin? Sure, it could happen. But it won’t. Roughnecks
MIN @ COL I wanted to pick the Swarm, and I kind of hope I’m wrong. The Swarm have surprised and impressed me (and many others) this year, and I wouldn’t be shocked if they did pull off the upset, though I would be surprised. Sure, they beat the Mammoth last weekend, but Colorado was missing Gavin Prout and had nothing to play for in that game. Prout is back this weekend, and the Mammoth are not going to take this one lightly. Mammoth4

Week 17 picks

Posted on by

So this is it, the last week. I’m way under .500; best I can do is 32-40, but I could also end up 28-44. Yet another .500 week would put me at 30-42. Still, that’s not too much worse than some of the IL Indoor guys, and depending on this week’s games, it might even be better than some of them. But remember when we start the playoffs, we’re all tied at 0-0…

Record: 28-40 (.412)

Game

Comments

Pick
TOR @ EDM Toronto is playing for home floor advantage while Edmonton can’t change their playoff position. Nick Rose had a bad outing against the Mammoth but rebounded and played pretty well against the Stealth last weekend. Edmonton has the lowest-scoring offense in the league, so this might be another opportunity for Rose to bump his confidence going into the playoffs. That said, the Rush beat the Mammoth last weekend so maybe let’s not count our chickens and all that. Rock
COL @ MIN Apparently Gavin Prout will miss this weekend, although the Mammoth said that about John Grant after the weekend he missed and he played anyway. The biggest question of this game is: will it be Evan Kirk or Tyler Carlson that gives up John Grant’s 116th point of the year? Or will they say “Sorry, Mr. Grant, not on my watch”? Given the season Grant’s had, that would be rather surprising, but surprising things just keep happening in the NLL this season. Mammoth
PHI @ ROC I really wanted to pick Philly just because I can’t imagine them going into the playoffs on a five-game losing streak. But I couldn’t imagine the Bandits going on a six-game losing streak, or the Stealth missing the playoffs, or the Mammoth going from 5-11 to 11-4 in one year, or… The Knighthawks have owned the Wings this year, going 2-0 with a combined score of 33-20. Knighthawks
BUF @ WAS I know, I know, I said I was done with the Bandits, but holy crap, Anthony Cosmo was great last weekend. And the one before. The Stealth are playing for exactly nothing while the Bandits are shaping up for the playoffs. Bandits

Previous weeks:

Week 1 – 0-1
Week 2 – 2-2
Week 3 – 2-2
Week 4 – 2-4
Week 5 – 2-2
Week 6 – 1-3
Week 7 – 2-2
Week 8 – 1-3
Week 9 – 2-2
Week 10 – 2-4
Week 11 – 1-2
Week 12 – 1-5
Week 13 – 5-0
Week 14 – 2-2
Week 15 – 0-4
Week 16 – 3-2