Category Archives: Predictions

Week 5 picks

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4-3 last week. Certainly better than the 0-4 the week before, and pushes my record (.353) up into the “not very good” range, which is way above last week’s “abysmal”. This week, I’m hoping to reach “mediocre”! Dream big!

Record: 6-11 (.353)

Game

Comments

Pick
TOR @ BUF This will be a hell of a game. Thankfully the game is on TSN in Canada, since I’ve heard that the YouTube feeds coming out of Buffalo have been at best problematic and at worst non-existent. No John Tavares for the Bandits, which can only be a good thing for the Rock. I almost hate picking the Rock sometimes because it makes me look like a homer, but in this case, I just can’t not. Rock
MIN @ COL It’s weird – I heard a ton last year about how Chris Levis was the goalie the Mammoth had needed for years and he performed better than expected. Then after only 2 games this year, people started talking about how he’s the team’s biggest question mark. After one more game he’s released, they pick up a guy who’s played all of 9 minutes in his NLL career, and now their goaltending problems are solved? Swarm
CAL @ EDM Calgary didn’t have the greatest first couple of weekends but holy crap, did they make up for it last weekend, winning twice by a combined score of 35-20. Edmonton won’t be a pushover by any stretch, but if the Roughnecks play like we now know they can, there are few teams in the league who can hold them back. Roughnecks
WAS @ ROC Rochester can’t really be this bad, can they? I’m sure I said this all last year about the Stealth, and look how that turned out. But it’s not like the Stealth were a championship-contending team before that! Oh wait, yes they were. OK, I’ve almost talked myself out of picking the Knighthawks here, but I’m going to go with my first impression. Knighthawks

Week 4 picks

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This just gets better and better. After an 0-1 opening weekend and a more positive 2-3 week 2, I was 0-4 last weekend. Maybe it’s time to start flipping coins. The comments on these picks keeps getting harder and harder too – for every reason I can come up with why Team A will beat Team B, I can come up with another for why Team B will win. Plus even if team A has a far better offense than team B, Team A’s offense may have a bad game. Or Team B’s defense may have an exceptionally good game. Or a couple of the players have a cold and while it doesn’t take them out of the game, they may be less effective. Or a whole host of other reasons. Trust me, I can come up with a whole bunch of excuses reasons of why I’m not predicting 100%.

There are a whole bunch of games this weekend, and the only way I can end up at or above .500 this week is to get every pick right. Even one wrong leaves me at 8-9. Unfortunately, I’ve been very busy this week and so I am putting this together at the last minute and don’t have time to put comments in, so I’ll just post my picks. If I get energetic tomorrow, I may revisit this article and put comments in for games that haven’t happened yet.

Record: 2-8 (.200)

Game

Pick
CAL @ COL Roughnecks
WAS @ EDM Rush
MIN @ TOR Rock
PHI @ BUF Bandits
WAS @ MIN Swarm
TOR @ ROC Knighthawks
CAL @ PHI Wings

Week 3 picks

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For a little while there, it wasn’t looking good at all. I was 0-1 after week 1, then I got the first three games of last weekend wrong as well – I was sitting at 0-4, and my next two picks were the only team that missed the playoffs last year winning and a team that went to the championship losing. Luckily Washington came through, and the Rock managed to hold off the Rush, so I’m 2-4. Let’s try and get above .500 this week, shall we?

Record: 2-4 (.333)

Game

Comments

Pick
COL @ CAL Both strong teams, and both lost last weekend. Dane Dobbie missed last week but will be back, while Colorado is still struggling with goaltending issues. Roughnecks
BUF @ ROC Buffalo was hoping to see Billy Dee Smith back for this one, but he hurt his foot so he’ll be out again. Meanwhile, the Knighthawks should have Casey Powell available. As good as Kurtis Wagar has been this year, I have more confidence in Matt Vinc so I have to go with Rochester. Knighthawks
PHI @ TOR Philly beat Buffalo so they’ve got some confidence, but Nick Rose was great last weekend and if I’ve learned one thing doing these predictions, it’s always stick with a hot goalie. Until he’s not hot anymore. Then you shouldn’t have stuck with him quite so long. Rock54
EDM @ WAS I know the Stealth’s newfound confidence will only taken them so far – confident teams sometimes lose – but not yet. Stealth44

Week 2 picks

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So the upstart Stealth knocked off the champion Knighthawks last week, and while this was not a shocker, it’s not what I picked so I start the season on a losing note. Than again, so did a lot of people.

Record: 0-1 (.000)

Game

Comments

Pick
BUF @ PHI I’m not sure if this is because I think Buffalo will do pretty well this year or because I think Philly won’t. Likely both. A number of people pointed out that Cosmo’s numbers weren’t exactly stellar last year (12.41 GAA, 75.9 save %), but he had no training camp and started cold in the middle of the season. His GAA and save % in his last five games were 9.36 and 82.3%. Bandits4
MIN @ BUF Just as I think Buffalo will do well this year, I think the Swarm will do better. Adding Matisz and Jackson to an already-strong core will help up front, and once Sorensen is activated, they’ll have an even better back end in front of two of the best young goalies in the league. Swarm4
TOR @ CAL Two of the strongest teams face off in each team’s season opener. Calgary’s 5-2 in their last 7 home games, though the Rock are 6-1 in their last 7 away games. Considering the firepower on both of these teams, this one will come down to goaltending. Nick Rose, in his first full season as an NLL starter, has yet to face his former Roughneck teammates while Mike Poulin is coming off a Goaltender of the Year season. I have to give Calgary the edge here. Roughnecks5
WAS @ COL After the disaster that was the 2012 Stealth season, the team has to be pretty pleased with their opening game against the defending champs. They looked more like the 2010 or 2011 Stealth and Colorado might be the victim of that confidence boost. Stealth4
TOR @ EDM As bullish as I am on Minnesota, I’m not so much on Edmonton. The Rush’s problem has always been offense and Mark Matthews will certainly help to make up for the loss of Shawn Williams, Aaron Wilson, and Scott Evans but he can’t do it all. If Corey Small, Ryan Ward, and Zack Greer don’t bump up their offensive numbers, the Rush could lose a lot of 9-7 games. Rock5

Week 1 pick

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Last season was the first one where I made predictions on each and every game. I picked 31 winners out of 72 games, or 43%, which means that if I flipped a coin for each one rather than looking at the teams and players and doing some actual analysis, I would probably have had a higher percentage.

My goal for this season is to beat last season, and if all goes well, I might even hit the elusive 50% mark.

Record: 0-0 (.000)

Game

Comments

Pick
ROC @ WAS On IL Indoor, Ty Pilson broke down this game, and ranked both teams even on defense, goaltending, coaching, and intangibles. He gave the Knighthawks a slight edge on offense. I might have ranked the Knighthawks goaltending a little higher than that of the Stealth, but otherwise I agree with Ty. It’s a testament to the parity of the league that you can have a game this even between last year’s champions and the only team that didn’t make the playoffs.
I think the Stealth will be better than last year, but I have to give this one to the defending champs.		 Knighthawks

Seeing the future: Lacrosse predictions for 2013

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Just as it is tradition to look back over the previous year at the end of December, it’s also tradition to look ahead and make predictions for the upcoming year. I don’t have a crystal ball but I do have a frying pan that looks kind of like the Mirror of Galadriel from The Lord of the Rings. After breakfast today I gazed deep into the bacon grease, and here is what I saw:Graeme's magic frying pan

  1. Shortly before the MLL season begins Casey Powell will announce that he will retire from the MLL after this season, confusing people who thought he had already retired. He will call the season his “farewell tour” and play one game as a member of each team.
  2. Paul Rabil will fall in love and get engaged. He will then announce that he’s moving his foundation’s headquarters and all of his lacrosse clinics to his fiancée’s home town of Edmonton. Once he does this, his fiancée will laugh maniacally and remove her face mask, revealing that she is actually Bruce Urban.
  3. After the Philadelphia Wings finish with a 5-11 record and out of the playoffs, GM Johnny Mouradian will admit that his plan of bringing in American field lacrosse players was a failure. He will announce that next season, they will bring in American soccer players instead. At the entry draft in October, he almost drafts Freddy Adu before being reminded that Adu was born in Ghana.
  4. Dane Dobbie will have a breakout year, scoring 57 goals and 55 assists for 112 points. However, he will be given no MVP consideration because he finishes fourth in scoring on the Roughnecks.
  5. Mark Matthews will set a league record with 86 goals, and will also pick up four assists. Unfortunately, the Edmonton Rush score 90 goals on the season.
  6. The NLL expands to Montreal, but the new franchise is immediately put on hiatus while the government of Quebec argues whether “lacrosse” is still a French word or has been used by English-speakers for long enough that it’s not really French anymore and has to be replaced by something else.
  7. Rhys Duch is traded to the Colorado Mammoth in a blockbuster. The Mammoth immediately start looking for a new arena announcer after Willie B’s head explodes.
  8. The NLL announces that NLL Chatter is the first-ever winner of the new “National Lacrosse League Blog of the Year” award. At the awards ceremony, commissioner George Daniel starts to hand me the award, but pulls it back. He then turns into my 12th grade English teacher Mrs. Johnson, who says “You use too many commas!” All of the lacrosse players start chasing me with their sticks, and I can’t yell or move my feet. Then I wake up in a cold sweat.

2013 NLL Predictions

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As a lacrosse blogger, it is my solemn duty to post my predictions for all the major NLL awards. It’s a responsibility that I take seriously, and so after at least 45 seconds of consideration per award, here are my choices.

Final standings

East

  1. Rochester Knighthawks
  2. Toronto Rock
  3. Buffalo Bandits
  4. Philadelphia Wings

West

  1. Calgary Roughnecks
  2. Minnesota Swarm
  3. Colorado Mammoth
  4. Washington Stealth
  5. Edmonton Rush

 

Individual Awards

MVP: Dan Dawson. Runner-up: Garrett Billings

Goaltender of the Year: Anthony Cosmo. Runner-up: Aaron Bold

Defensive Player of the Year: Kyle Rubisch. Runner-up: Paul Dawson

Transition Player of the Year: Jordan MacIntosh. Runner-up: Paul Rabil. Yes, Rabil.

Rookie of the Year: Mark Matthews. Runner-up: Kiel Matisz

Les Bartley (Coach of the Year): Troy Cordingley. Runner-up: Joe Sullivan

GM of the Year: Curt Styres. Runner-up: Steve Dietrich

2013 Preview: Toronto Rock

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RockThe 2012 season was a transition year for the Rock, as the first year of the post-Bob Watson era. As transition years go, finishing first in the East is probably a better result than fans had a right to expect. As the only East team that finished above .500 however, perhaps the Rock capitalized on weak years from the other East teams.

As it turned out, the Matt Roik era lasted just over 1/2 a season. I thought they gave up on Roik a little too quick, but I have to say I’ve been impressed with Nick Rose thus far. I’ve talked to a number of Rock fans who are concerned with the goalie situation for some reason, but Rose went 6-2 in a Rock uniform. The fact that Rose was both Goaltender of the Year and league MVP in the WLA this past summer may hopefully convince skeptical Rock fans that finding a “real” #1 goaltender is a problem that the Rock don’t really have.

Roster changes

A number of changes here and there but the core is the same. Gone are Glen Bryan and Bruce Codd, as well as backup goalie Pat Campbell. Former Bandits captain Chris White joins the defense and rookie Kyle Belton, who played forward during the Edmonton scrimmage and scored three goals, is listed as a defender. Zac Boychuk looks like the backup goaltender, and if you’re a Rock fan but not a WLA fan, you may be interested to know that the first-team and second-team WLA All Star goalies in 2012 were none other than Nick Rose and Zac Boychuk.

On the offense, Jamie Rooney was sent to the Bandits along with Bryan for draft picks. I liked Rooney – I thought he was a dynamic scorer and a welcome addition to the Toronto offense. The Rock also traded Aaron Pascas, who had a pretty good rookie season in 2011 but did not play in 2012. Dan Carey finally had to give into the concussion problems he’s been facing for several years and retire. It’s always unfortunate when a player has to end his career early because of injuries.

Shortly before training camp began, the Rock picked up Scott Evans, who was tossed onto the scrap heap by the Edmonton Rush after they benched him at the end of last season and throughout the playoffs. The message was clear – smarten up and don’t play selfish or you don’t play at all. Evans apparently didn’t get the message and showed up to camp out of shape. I did think at the end of last year that the Rock needed more grit and toughness which Evans can provide in spades, but I’m still not sure about this signing. If Evans does smarten up and provides some offense (and doesn’t expect to be the #1 forward – he’ll be #6 at best), it might be OK. But if he’s contributing two points and six penalty minutes per game, he’s not worth it. I’d keep Evans on a short leash. That said, he did score four goals in the Rock’s pre-season game in Montreal.

There’s been no word on the status of Phil Sanderson, who missed six games last season due to a concussion. There were rumours that his injury was career threatening though the Rock said back in November that he’s “expected to be ready for camp”. He did not play during the scrimmages with Edmonton or Rochester, and begins the season on the IR.

Burning question

My burning question for the Rock concerns Nick Rose, but it’s not “Can Rose be the guy?” because I believe he can. Rock fans were lucky to have seen Bob Watson, possibly the best box lacrosse goalie ever, for so many years. The problem is that they got used to having him back there and now any goalie that plays for the Rock is compared to him. Having a goalie that’s not as good as Whipper isn’t a glaring weakness, it just puts the Rock on a par with other teams. The burning question: will Rock fans come to realize this and get behind Rosey?

Prediction

Second in the east.

Haiku

Who will protect us?
Pat Campbell retired, but
Scott Evans is here

2013 Preview: Buffalo Bandits

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BanditsThe 2012 season started off just fine for the Buffalo Bandits. They hosted the rival Toronto Rock and beat them 14-10. The next week they travelled to Rochester and beat their other rivals 12-9. Then the troubles started. Five weeks later, they were 2-6 and their coach was calling them stupid, a bunch of bush leaguers, and questioning their heart. This was a lack of success with which the Bandits organization was unfamiliar, at least lately. The Bandits hadn’t finished below .500 since 1999, and finished first or tied for first in the East in four of the previous six seasons.

Still, after all the drama they went 5-3 in the second half and ended up tied for second in the East (dropped to fourth due to tiebreakers). Anthony Cosmo allowed a mere 7 Toronto goals in the division semi-final, but Nick Rose only allowed 6, ending what was not likely Darris Kilgour’s favourite NLL season. After the season, I predicted “There will be lots of changes coming for the Bandits this offseason” and lo and behold, I was right. Not that this was a particularly Earth-shattering prediction.

Roster changes

Steve Dietrich has only had the Bandits GM job since July but he’s been one of the busiest GMs in the league since then. Gone are Kevin Buchanan and Jeremy Thompson (both traded), Darryl Gibson and Mike Thompson (both retired), Brandon Francis, Travis Irving, Tom Montour, Ian Llord, Angus Goodleaf, and Roger Vyse (released), and former captain Chris White (signed with Toronto). A whole pile of new faces will don the orange and black in 2013, many of whom, strangely, are former Toronto Rock players. This list includes former Bandit (and Rock) Shawn Williams, Aaron Wilson, Jamie Rooney, Mike Hominuck, Glen Bryan, and Derek Suddons. Even Dietrich himself was the backup goalie in Toronto for one season, and goalie coach for one more. There are a few non-former-Rock additions as well: David Brock, Nick Cotter, and Kurtis Wagar.

There are also three rookies on the Bandits roster. Last year the Bandits had two Thompsons, this year they have three Smiths – all defenders. Billy Dee returns for his tenth season in a Bandits uniform, and his cousin Dhane was Buffalo’s first draft pick (5th overall) in the entry draft. Hayden was Buffalo’s second round pick, 13th overall, and is not related to the other two Smiths. The other rookie is Carter Bender, a forward who was taken 18th overall in the draft.

But even given the number of new faces on the team this year, some things never change: John Tavares, who has never played for the Rock (nor any NLL team other than Buffalo), returns for his eleventy-millionth season.

Burning question

Darris Kilgour the GM is gone but Darris Kilgour the head coach remains. Did the Bandits keep the right one?

Prediction

Third in the east because half the team is new, and it will take time for them all to gel together. But if they do that quickly and the Powell/Dawson/Jamieson experiment doesn’t work out, the Bandits could win the east.

Haiku

Many new Bandits
Chugger’s been a busy guy
JT’s still here, natch

2013 Preview: Rochester Knighthawks

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KnighthawksThe Knighthawks won the NLL Championship in 2012, so obviously they don’t need major changes to their team in 2013, right? Well, what if they add two of the last four NLL MVPs? Have they just made a very good team better, or have they messed too much with the chemistry of a team that was already successful?

Rochester did win the title in 2012, but that doesn’t mean they were the best team. Remember that the Knighthawks finished the regular season 3rd in the East with a 7-9 record, and only won two games in a row once during the regular season. I suppose they did win three in a row when it counted – in the playoffs – but they were not nearly as dominant a team as, say, the Knighthawks team that won the 2007 championship.

Roster changes

Similar to my Philadelphia report, I had this section all done, saying that other than Powell and Rabil, the Knighthawks haven’t made all that many changes. Then they made the Rabil deal and that all changed. On offense, they’re adding Casey Powell and Dan Dawson and losing… nobody. On transition, they added Joel McCready, but lost Jarrett Davis in the first Rabil trade and Jordan Hall, Joel White, and Robbie Campbell in the second. On the defense, Pat McCready retired but Paul Dawson replaces him. Goaltending, Vinc and Henhawk, is unchanged from last year.

Burning question

Take a decent team and add Casey Powell or Dan Dawson and they’ll be better. That’s almost a given. But what happens when you add both? In addition, the Knighthawks were better than decent, and already had a legitimate number one scorer in Cody Jamieson.

By taking a good team and adding (or attempting to add) two superstars, Curt Styres may have been trying to re-create the “Shaq-Kobe” Lakers or “LeBron-Wade-Bosh” Heat. But the Boston Blazers had “the Big Three”, including both Powell and Dawson, and did not bring a championship to Boston. In fact, they never even won a playoff game. My burning question for the Knighthawks is whether Cody Jamieson is still the offensive leader of the team, or does he step back for Dawson?

Prediction

Not sure how I can predict anything other than first in the East for the Hawks.

Haiku

Few changes, but big
With Powell and the Dawsons
The champs have improved