Week 4 picks

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Holy crap. I went 5-1 last week, my best weekend for making picks EVER except for my 5-0 week back in March of 2012. Of course, the only one I got wrong was the one I most wanted to be right – the Toronto/Buffalo game.  A whopping seven games this weekend, so I have lots of opportunity to make a huge jump in the percentages, and lots of opportunity to drop back under .500.

Once again, I gave my picks on this week’s Addicted to Lacrosse show.

Record: 7-4 (.636)

Game
Comments
Pick
CAL @ EDM Edmonton looked really good last weekend, and they’re at home again. Rush4
COL @ VAN Iannucci playing against his old team makes this an interesting game, but I still have to go with the Stealth. I’m starting to feel the same about betting against Tyler Richards as I am about Matt Vinc. Stealth4
MIN @ PHI Philly lost their game against Buffalo last week but they have to feel confident about their 2nd half comeback. Minnesota has yet to prove that they can score without Ryan Benesch. Wings
TOR @ ROC I hate to pick against my team, but like I said, I also find it hard to pick against Matt Vinc. Knighthawks5
VAN @ CAL I have no explanation for this pick. This will be really good game and I can see either one taking it. Stealth4
BUF @ COL Buffalo looked really good in the second half of their game against the Rock. That plus their OT win in Philly will give them confidence. Bandits4
PHI @ MIN Minnesota’s home opener, and they’re playing against their former teammate, who they also saw the previous night. Swarm

Game report: Toronto 10 @ Buffalo 12

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As an NLL fan, I’m glad I drove to Buffalo Friday night for the Rock/Bandits game. It was an entertaining game, and the atmosphere in Buffalo is always fun and loud. But as a Rock fan, I should have left at halftime. Each team played a very good half and a lousy half. The Rock’s lousy half wasn’t as bad as the Bandits’ lousy half, but their good half wasn’t nearly as good as the Bandits’ good half.

I predicted a Rock victory, as did both of my Addicted to Lacrosse co-hosts, 6 of my 8 colleagues at ILIndoor.com, four out of four guys over at laxallstars.com, and ten out of ten at inlacrossewetrust.com. I kind of doubt the Bandits players knew about all of those predictions, but if they did, they wouldn’t have been happy about it. And after the first half, things were going according to plan. The Rock offense was looking good, Nick Rose was playing very well in net, and the Bandits’ offense was kind of sloppy. Toronto’s fourth goal was a beautiful and perfectly executed give-and-go from Stephen Leblanc to Colin Doyle. The Bandits didn’t score in the first at all and only twice in the second, and both of their goals were followed by Rock goals, dampening any momentum they were trying to gain.

6 on 5

And then came halftime, and everything changed. I don’t know what Troy Cordingley said to his team at halftime, but holy crap. Either he gave a compelling speech for the ages and John Lovell did not, or the two teams just swapped uniforms at the half.

The Bandits came out very strong in the third. They didn’t score until 11 minutes in, but then scored four within three minutes. They kept the Rock scoreless for the entire third. Cosmo played like the Cosmo the Bandits thought they were getting a couple of years ago, and the defense was strong. I particularly remember watching Kevin Brownell covering Colin Doyle and making sure he got nowhere near the net and couldn’t even get a decent pass away. In short, the Bandits played an excellent third quarter – possibly the most complete quarter of lacrosse (in terms of offense, defense, and goaltending) I’ve seen so far this year.

The Rock, on the other hand, didn’t have a great third quarter at all. There were a couple of boneheaded defensive plays and the offense couldn’t solve the Bandits D. A number of Rock passes were intercepted, and even Nick Rose got in on the boneheaded action. After a save, he immediately launched a long pass to Jesse Gamble halfway up the floor. This is usually a good idea, but Gamble was covered and was barely able to catch the pass. Kudos to him for catching it at all, but it was a bit of a dumb pass. A second after he caught it, Gamble got leveled by Billy Dee Smith in the hit of the game and the Bandits recovered the ball.

I have to give props to Steve Priolo. The first time I remember seeing Priolo was in Toronto in 2011, when he got involved in a couple of fights and just played like a complete goon. My first impression stuck with me for a while, so I’ve always thought of him as a big dumb fighter with a lacrosse stick. But even if you don’t count his two goals (on two shots) on Friday, he played a very strong defensive game. It makes me happy when you see players who start off as one-dimensional and gradually expand their skill set until they are much more complete players. Priolo looks like he’s headed that way, and his teammates Billy Dee Smith (who also had a strong game) and Rory Smith are also good examples of this.

In a nutshell, I think coaching was a factor in this game. The Bandits changed their game at halftime and played much stronger in the second half. But not only did the Rock play worse in the second half, they didn’t adjust to the Bandits changes, leading to a 10-4 second half in favour of Buffalo.

Other game notes:

  • Mark Steenhuis’ empty net goal was on a 2-on-1 with brother Billy Dee. BDS carried the ball the length of the floor before passing to Steenhuis who put it away. Smith was being covered by the Rock defender and probably could have scored himself but passed it for the sure thing. Very unselfish play by Smith.
  • Bandits fans: only 11,000 for a game against the Rock? Wow. I was expecting closer to a full house. Haven’t seen this many empty seats at a Bandits game in a long time. (See picture below, taken near the end of the first quarter.) In fact, that was the lowest attendance for a regular season game in Buffalo since 2006. Note that the Bandits went to the Championship in 2006. Probably unrelated.
  • Swennie: “Count it down for me! 1…” Crowd: “2… 3… we want 4!” That’s actually counting up, not down. My son made me add this one.
  • With a minute or so left in the game and the Bandits up by two, the music guy decided to play “We Will Rock You” ironically. Well played.
  • Talking to my son: “Former Rock players on the Bandits: Williams, Benesch, Wilson, Rooney, Bryan, Suddons, Cosmo. They’ve even got our coach from last year.” My son responds “I guess that’s why they’re called the Bandits.” Also well played.

Empty seats

Week 3 picks

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The first of two busy weekend in the NLL – six games this weekend, seven next weekend. I announced all my picks on this week’s Addicted to Lacrosse show but in the unlikely event that you didn’t watch the show (you did, right? RIGHT?), here they are. This will be true going forward – we plan on making predictions on the show every week, and I’ll be posting mine here as well.

Record: 2-3 (.400)

Game
Comments
Pick
TOR @ BUF The Rock looked really good last weekend while Buffalo didn’t. The Rock are 14-6 all-time in Buffalo. That said, Troy Cordingley would love to prove to the Rock that firing him was a mistake, and so he’ll have his team ready to play. I’m going to this game – should be a good one. Rock5
COL @ CAL Calgary did not play like Calgary last week and so they will want to prove to their home fans that they are still a team to be reckoned with. Colorado will attempt to reckon with them. If Dillon Ward starts and plays like he’s done so far this year, this prediction could easily go south. (Get it? Colorado is south of Calgary) Roughnecks
PHI @ ROC Philly looked really good last weekend, but I find it hard to bet against Matt Vinc. Knighthawks
COL @ EDM Toughest game to call this week. Edmonton was 2-6 at home last year and 7-1 away, but I’m betting they can improve on that this year. Rush
MIN @ VAN The Swarm kept the Knighthawks to only 8 goals last week, but I don’t think they can be that strong defensively two weeks in a row. The Stealth are playing their first-ever home game in Vancouver (as a Vancouver team, anyway, they played the Championship game last year and a couple of pre-season games in Langley over the last couple of years) so they’ll want to put on a good show. Stealth
BUF @ PHI After losing their first two (assuming my prediction above holds), the Bandits will be angry and will do whatever they can to avoid starting 0-3. This anger and desperation could result in a debacle where they take a million penalties and lose by a ton, or Troy could pull them together and make them play better. There’s no evidence yet that he can do the latter (Darris certainly couldn’t over the last couple of years), but that’s what I’m going to go with. Bandits

Game review: Calgary 11 @ Toronto 16

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The Toronto Rock and Calgary Roughnecks opened their seasons on Friday night in Toronto, and things couldn’t really have gone much better for the Rock. Captain Colin Doyle scored the first goal of the season four minutes in, and two minutes later, the Rock had a three goal lead. Not only did the Rock keep the lead for the rest of the game, but Calgary only got back within one once, and after the first quarter, the Rock’s lead would never drop below three. The Roughnecks had problems in all areas of the floor – goaltending, defense, taking bad penalties, and particularly the offense, which looked pretty sloppy. Shots were missing the net all night, and other times a Roughnecks player would try to sneak one by Rose through a screen rather than waiting for a  better shot opportunity.

That said, the Riggers did try to make a game of it in the 3rd and 4th, as Jeff Shattler scored four straight Calgary goals and then early in the fourth, Shawn Evans and Curtis Dickson (neither of whom had scored up to this point) each scored to bring the Roughnecks back to within 3 with 10 minutes to play – and of course 10 minutes to score 3 goals is tons of time. But Nick Rose and the Rock D only allowed one more the rest of the way, and the Rock offense never let up the pressure.

Garrett Billings scored one and assisted on nine to lead the game (and now the league) in scoring, and Stephen Leblanc had an excellent game with 5 goals and a couple of helpers. Jesse Gamble is already making me reconsider my Transition Player of the Year prediction (Geoff Snider), and I wondered during the game who would win in a race: Gamble or Steve Toll in his prime. On the Calgary side, Shawn Evans had a goal and seven assists, and Jeff Shattler scored four. I noticed rookies Karsen Leung and Garrett McIntosh a few times but I don’t even remember seeing Tor Reinholdt’s name. He’s on the scoresheet, so he obviously played, but I have no memory of him.

But man, those Roughnecks have some pests, don’t they? Evans, Dobbie, and Snider spent a grand total of 2 minutes in the penalty box, but they were being their usual irritating selves (though if I were an NLL GM, I’d take any one of them on my team in a heartbeat), and Greg (or possibly Jon) Harnett and Andrew McBride also got in on the action. There were no fights but a fair bit of pushing and shoving all night, which is somewhat typical between these teams. However Mike Carnegie was given a 5-minute major for illegal cross-checking which I didn’t think was warranted at all. It looked to me like a good hit – maybe high across the chest, but I didn’t think it was a head hit, and it certainly didn’t look like an intentional head hit.

Next weekend, the Rock travel to Buffalo to see old coach Troy Cordingley, while the Roughnecks host the Mammoth.

Other game notes:

  • Nice to see Ethan O’Connor get his first NLL goal in his first NLL game. Sure it was an empty-netter, but it still counts.
  • Mike Poulin was hot and cold. Mostly cold in the first half and better as the game went on, but he made a few damned impressive saves throughout the game. Nick Rose had a few OMG-worthy saves as well, but let in a couple of softies. Then again, when Jeff Shattler is standing 15 feet from you and winding up like he’s going to put a 100 mph shot through you, you’re getting ready to feel the pain. You’re not looking for a 40 mph change-up that bounces right at your feet.
  • Right at the end of the game, Damon Edwards was running out the last 5 or 10 seconds on the clock, when McBride started hitting him into the boards with some legal but very hard cross-checks – much harder than the situation warranted. When the hits continued after the final buzzer Edwards started shoving back, and a fight almost began. The refs broke it up before anything happened, and a minute later they were shaking hands in the lineup.
  • The Rock cheerleaders had new outfits including denim jackets, but it looked like they decided that each girl would go and buy their own, since none of them matched. Some were longer than others, some were light blue while others were dark, it was weird. Normally their outfits are very co-ordinated.
  • I like the Trainer’s Choice commercial they show on the Jumbotron during Rock games, showing players falling on various parts of their body. The best part is when they show a player falling through the crease. As soon as his elbow hits the ground, the video stops and the word “ANKLE” appears in big letters. This is a sports medicine company.
  • They didn’t show the car rental company commercial that everyone loves. (“A little more to your right, a little back to the left, just an inch more to your right. OK, there. Do it. <BANG>”) I can’t currently remember which car rental company it’s for, so from that point of view it’s a lousy commercial. Makes me laugh every time though.

Addicted to Lacrosse? So are we! Come hang out with us!

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There’s a new lacrosse show in town! Addicted To Lacrosse is a weekly talk show about the NLL done by fans, for fans. It features myself, Melissa Dafni, and Tyler Fitch in a roundtable format, and the three of us discuss NLL news as well as the previous weekend’s games, and make predictions for the upcoming games. We’ve all been big lacrosse fans (and NLL season ticket holders) for many years and love to talk about the game. We make no apologies for being fans of the Rock (Graeme), Mammoth (Melissa), and Stealth (Tyler), but we promise to cover all the games and teams.

The show will air every Monday night at 9pm EST (7pm MST, 6pm PST) and is done live via Google+ Hangout, with the recording available afterwards on YouTube. All previous episodes (including a few we did during the off-season as practice) are available at addictedtolacrosse.com or through the official YouTube playlist. Make sure you follow @LaxPodcast on Twitter, and if you have feedback, you can tweet it to @LaxPodcast or send email to feedback(at)addictedtolacrosse.com. Send us your comments and we’ll read them on the show, and if you send us questions, maybe we’ll add a Q&A segment!

Melissa

Tyler And Kitty

Graeme needs a haircut

We’re looking forward to getting together once a week to talk about the NLL, and we hope you can join us!

Week 2 picks

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The first week of the season had some of the expected and a bit of the unexpected. The expected: Rochester and Minnesota both got great goaltending but the Knighthawks offense was just that much better than the Swarm’s. The unexpected: Colorado had goaltending problems until rookie Dillon Ward showed up, John Grant didn’t record a point until almost the end of the third quarter, and Mark Matthews didn’t score. Also unexpected: Philadelphia impressed, Buffalo did not. Well, given the fact that Buffalo ended up last in the league last year and wasn’t much better the year before, perhaps that shouldn’t have been unexpected. But I really thought the changes the Bandits made would make for a better performance than what we saw.

Record: 1-2 (.333)

Game
Comments
Pick
CAL @ TOR No team in the league scares me as much as Calgary when they come to town. Their offense is just too stacked and the team is just strong top to bottom. That said, the Rock ain’t bad either so I’m going with the home floor advantage. Rock
VAN @ COL The Stealth are right behind the Roughnecks in terms of a strong top-to-bottom team. Tyler Richards is probably the best goalie in the league not named Matt, and they must have some serious confidence in the likes of Tyler Digby and Cody Bremner to keep them in lieu of Dean Hill and the Nooch. Stealth

Week 1 picks

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Last season I went 33-39 in my regular season picks and then 3-4 in the playoffs, which means that your average coin can pick NLL winners more successfully than I can. Let’s see if I can boost my percentage this season.

Record: 0-0 (.000)

Game
Comments
Pick
PHI @ BUF New coach, new scoring leader, opening day after a lousy season in front of the loudest fans in the league, it can only go well for the Bandits. Right? Bandits
MIN @ ROC Schuss, Noble, and Jones will be looking to impress in their debuts, and Andrew Suitor returns. But it’s hard to pick against the defending two-time champs. Knighthawks
EDM @ COL Toughest pick of the week. I think the Rush will have a good season and I picked them to finish ahead of Colorado. But I’m going with the Mammoth in this one anyway. Mammoth

The twelve days of Christmas – NLL style

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On the twelfth day of Christmas, George Daniel gave to me:

Twelve behind-the-back passes
Eleven goals against
Ten minute misconduct
Nine home games
Eight second rule
Seven big defenders
Six goals for socks
Five for fighting
Four air Gait’s
Three loose balls
Two guys named Dawson
And a seven-year CBA!

Merry Christmas to all from NLL Chatter!

Christmas

2014 NLL Predictions

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As I do every year, here are my predictions for the final regular season standings for the upcoming season, and also the major end-of-season awards.

Final Standings

East

  1. Rochester
  2. Toronto
  3. Buffalo
  4. Minnesota
  5. Philadelphia

West

  1. Calgary
  2. Vancouver
  3. Edmonton
  4. Colorado

 

Individual Awards

MVP

Winner:  Garrett Billings. He’s been right up there in MVP voting for a couple of years, and I think this is his year.
Short list: Cody Jamieson, Mark Matthews

Goaltender of the Year

Winner: Matt Vinc. I may just pick Vinc every year until he retires or The Next Matt Vinc arrives.
Short list: Tyler Richards, Aaron Bold

Defensive Player of the Year

Winner: Kyle Rubisch. Like Vinc, I’ll likely just keeping guessing Rubisch until someone else rips the award away from him.
Short list: Mike Grimes, Rory Smith

Transition Player of the Year

Winner: Geoff Snider. This is who I think should win. If I were to pick who I think will win, it’d be Jordan MacIntosh. But MacIntosh isn’t strictly a transition player, and for some reason this really annoys me. This is similar to Jeff Shattler a couple of years ago – was he the MVP: yes. Was he the transition player of the year: in my opinion, no.
Short list: Jesse Gamble, Brad Self

Rookie of the Year

Winner: Robert Church. This award is almost always a tough one. It’s a crapshoot which rookies will quickly adapt to the NLL and which will not.
Short list: Logan Schuss, Jason Noble, Cody Bremner, Karsen Leung

Les Bartley (Coach of the Year)

Winner: Chris Hall
Short list: Troy Cordingley, Derek Keenan

GM of the Year

Winner: Steve Dietrich
Short list: Doug Locker

2014 preview: Rochester Knighthawks

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Knighthawks

I guess you could say the Knighthawks had a successful 2013 season despite their mediocre 8-8 record. I’m going to go out on a limb and and call back-to-back Championships “successful”. I’m sure they’d like another 12-4 or 11-5 season but as long as they get into the playoffs, perhaps they don’t really care. After an off-season of minimal change, I see no reason why the Knighthawks won’t have another successful season in 2014, but will it be as successful as the last couple? Last season, Rochester became the fourth NLL team to win consecutive Championships, joining Buffalo, Philly (twice), and Toronto (twice). Can they become the first team to do it three straight years?

2013 season summary

Record 8-8 (2nd in East)
Home 3-5
Away 5-3
Goals for 179
Goals against 165
Top scorer Cody Jamieson (89)
Playoffs Division semi-finals: Beat Philadelphia 10-8
Division finals: Beat Minnesota 12-10
Finals: Beat Washington 11-10

Roster changes

Almost none. Only two players on the announced roster weren’t on the Knighthawks last season. Angus Goodleaf begins the season on the PUP list, so the Knighthawks brought Mike Thompson out of retirement as Matt Vinc’s backup. GM (and owner) Curt Styres also signed former Knighthawk Mac Allen from the Mammoth as a restricted free agent. Allen is formerly one of the league’s top defenders and was named to the All-Star team in 2011, but only played in a total of six games in 2012 and 2013 due to injury. If he’s healthy again, Allen will be a welcome addition to an already strong defensive core.

But one of the players missing from last year’s roster is surprising. Mike Accursi is 11th all time in scoring, and only needs 11 points to tie the now-retired Blaine Manning. But he can’t do that if he’s playing on the Boston Blazers (or sitting in the front office, as it turns out). Rory Glaves, Matt Hummell, Jimmy Purves, and Jon Sullivan were also released by the Knighthawks.

Burning question

In my opinion, neither the 2012 Knighthawks nor the 2013 Knighthawks were the best team in the league, but they have two Championships in those years so that’s arguable. Obviously “Can they do it again” is question one. But right behind that is this: How much better can Matt Vinc possibly get? Will the Goaltender of the Year award be Vinc’s to lose for each of the next five years? Or more?

Look out for

Joe Walters. It’s going to be hard to stand out when you play with the likes of Dan Dawson and Cody Jamieson. But hometown boy Walters played very well in their exhibition game against the Rock, and could emerge as their #3 scorer.

Prediction

First in the East.

Haiku

Second straight season
Knighthawks are defending champs
Gonna try for three