Category Archives: Preview

2014 preview: Minnesota Swarm

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Swarm

The Swarm were the youngest team in the NLL in 2012. How young were they? Jeff Gilbert was the oldest player on the team at the age of 29. The season didn’t start off strongly, and by early March the Swarm were sitting at 3-7 and tied for last in the West. But suddenly everything just seemed to fall together, and they won three straight by 7, 9, and 14 goals. It looked like the Swarm would finish strong but then they lost two of their last three and did finish last in the west. Thanks to the lousy Bandits season, the Swarm were able to cross over to the East where they crushed the Rock 20-11 before the Knighthawks ended the up-and-down Swarm season in the division finals.

The Swarm are now back in the East division, where they were from 2005-2008. Unfortunately for them, this means that they’ll have to face former star Ryan Benesch more often than they would have if they’d stayed in the West.

2013 season summary

Record 7-9 (tied for 4th in West, seeded 5th)
Home 5-3
Away 2-6
Goals for 219
Goals against 202
Top scorer Callum Crawford (95)
Playoffs Division semi-finals: Beat Toronto 20-11
Division finals: Lost to Rochester 12-10

Roster changes

Obviously the biggest loss is Ryan Benesch, right? On the offensive side of the floor, sure, but it could be argued that trading Evan Kirk and going with Tyler Carlson as the full-time starting goaltender is even more significant. Carlson played 505 minutes last year, about the same as his rookie year. But compare that with Mike Poulin, Matt Vinc, and Nick Rose, all of whom were over 900 minutes. And given that there are two extra regular season games, Carlson is being asked to basically double his playing time from last year.

The loss of Benesch will definitely hurt the Swarm offense – he’s been one of the most dynamic scorers in the league for years and led the Swarm in goals last year. But 2013 was Callum Crawford’s best season ever, Shayne Jackson and “transition players” Kiel Matisz and Jordan MacIntosh are only going to get better, they’ll get a full season of Josh Gillam (19 points in 6 games), and there’s a couple of new kids in town: Logan Schuss and Scott Jones. Given all of that, the Swarm just might be able to get by without a huge drop in offense.

Three young defense/transition players from last year – Jay Card, Corbyn Tao, and Dan Ball – will not be returning this year, but former Rock defender Mike Hobbins joins the team and Swarm fans are anxious to see Jason Noble in action. But the return of Andrew Suitor is likely the most welcome change to the team, after the captain missed eleven games to injury last year.

Burning question

Can Tyler Carlson handle the job of full-time starting goaltender? (See similar question for Evan Kirk)

Look out for

Kiel Matisz. He’s listed under “transition”, but don’t you believe it: he’s a forward. After a 63-point rookie season and runner-up for Rookie of the Year, I can see the man they call Moose challenging Crawford for the team scoring lead.

Prediction

Fourth in the East.

Haiku

The captain is back
Schuss, Noble, and Jones debut
But no more Benesch

2014 preview: Edmonton Rush

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Rush

The 2012 Rush had a sub-.500 regular season but caught fire in the playoffs, making it to their first-ever Championship game. Their 2013 regular season was better – only their second .500 or better season in their eight seasons – but they couldn’t quite match the playoff success from the previous year. But the Rush have shown themselves to be a strong team that nobody takes for granted anymore… except maybe Calgary. During the regular season, anyway. With another strong draft, there’s no reason to think the Rush can’t contend in 2014.

2013 season summary

Record 9-7, tied for 1st in West (seeded 3rd)
Home 2-6
Away 7-1
Goals for 203
Goals against 170
Top scorer Ryan Ward (75)
Playoffs Division semi-finals: Lost to Washington 12-11

Roster changes

In October, captain Jimmy Quinlan announced his retirement. This is a big loss for the Rush. Obviously Quinlan has been a strong player, on offense for a few years (including two 50+ point seasons) and more defensive for the last four, but he’ll be missed for much more than his on-field contributions. Hometown boy Quinlan was one of the first players acquired by the Rush as a new franchise, and he’s been the heart and soul of the Rush for the entire history of the franchise – he is to the Rush what Kaleb Toth was to the Roughnecks. Quinlan only missed one game over his eight seasons in Edmonton. But the former captain will remain with the team in a different capacity. Former defensive coach Devan Wray has retired due to family commitments, and so Quinlan will take over the role of defensive coach.

Only two teams scored more goals last year than the Rush. But this off-season, they lost a fair number of those. Ryan Ward was an unrestricted free agent and chose to sign with the Philadelphia Wings, so his 75 points are gone. Corey Small tore his ACL during the WLA playoffs, so his 64 points are gone. Between them, Ward and Small scored 49 of the Rush’s 203 goals, or 24%. Mark Matthews was one of the most successful rookies in recent years, and he scored about 20% of the Rush’s goals in his rookie season. So counting on rookies not named Matthews to make up that 24% seems a bit optimistic. The addition of righty forward Robert Church should help (and might help quite a bit – I’ve already seen tweets predicting that he’ll be the Rookie of the Year), but that’s a lot of ground to make up.

Also missing from last year’s Rush are Alex Turner and Jarrett Toll.

Burning question

A few years ago, I thought the Roughnecks were in deep offensive trouble because they lost both Josh Sanderson and Tracey Kelusky. What happened? The likes of Scott Ranger, Jeff Shattler, Dane Dobbie, and some kid named Curtis Dickson all stepped up and produced one of the top offenses in the league (and then they got Shawn Evans). Expecting that level of success from the Rush after the loss of Ward and Small is really optimistic, but can Matthews and Church save the Rush offense?

Look out for

Curtis Knight. After a better-than-decent 46 points in his rookie season, he’s not going to be eclipsing Mark Matthews but could he be the second top scorer on the Rush this year? Sure he could.

Prediction

Third in the west.

Haiku

Ward off to Philly
Jim Quinlan behind the bench
Church and Matthews score

2014 preview: Colorado Mammoth

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Mammoth

After an 11-5 2012 season, the Mammoth looked like 2013 was going to be their tank year (a la the 2012 Stealth) when they started the season 2-7. They decided that goaltending was the problem, and promptly got rid of the old guard (Matt Roik and Chris Levis) and went with the kids (Tye Belanger and Dan Lewis, whose combined age was lower than Roik’s GAA). This proved to be a good idea, as they finished the season 5-2, while Belanger finished 5th among starters in GAA and 4th in save percentage. Acquiring veteran and legend Casey Powell from Rochester in March didn’t hurt either; by season’s end, John Grant was the only Mammoth with a higher points-per-game average than Powell.

2013 season summary

Record 7-9 (Tied for 4th in West, seeded 4th)
Home 3-5
Away 4-4
Goals for 185
Goals against 202
Top scorer John Grant (91)
Playoffs Division semi-finals: Lost to Calgary 15-10

Roster changes

The Mammoth offense got one boost and a couple of big hits in the off-season. They acquired Drew Westervelt, who’s been a 50+ point-per-season guy in Philadelphia for five years. Hopefully he can give a boost to the Mammoth offense, which was the lowest-scoring in the West. But instead of complementing Grant, Powell, and Prout, he’s basically replacing two of them. Just before the rosters were due to come out, Casey Powell announced that he would not be able to play with the Mammoth for some unspecified period of time, and for unspecified personal reasons. Whether he’s out for a few games or the entire season is anyone’s guess. And then when the rosters were announced, Gavin Prout’s name did not appear. The former captain was released, and so the Mammoth are down one Powell and one Prout and up one Westervelt.

Also missing from the roster, Ilija Gajic and Ryan Hotaling, who were both traded away this off-season. Gajic took 275 face-offs and Hotaling took 122. The rest of the roster combined for all of 38 face-off attempts and only 4 wins. For a second I thought this was a big oversight until I remembered who they got in the Gajic trade – Bob Snider. Snider’s only competition for the honour of Best Face-off Man in the NLL over the last three seasons has been his brother Geoff, so I imagine the Mammoth will be just fine in that category.

The Mammoth also traded Rory Smith to the Bandits for Carter Bender. Bender was released during training camp, but Smith had toned down his reputation as a pure fighter and turned himself into a tough defender. In addition, Richard Morgan retired, leaving the Mammoth without a single player over 6’5″. Only two teams allowed more goals than the Mammoth last year, and losing Smith and Morgan won’t help their defense to turn that around.

Interesting stat: four Mammoth players had more than 30 penalty minutes last year: Rory Smith, Ilija Gajic, Richard Morgan, and Chet Koneczny. Koneczny is the only one left on the team.

The Mammoth used four different goalies last season, and only one of them is still with the team. Tye Belanger gets the nod as everyday goaltender, while Dan Lewis was released in favour of draft pick Dillon Ward.

Burning question

Gotta couple.

  1. Tye Belanger looked pretty good in his 1/2 season stint as the starting goaltender. Can he pull that off for an entire season?
  2. Will Casey Powell return this season? Will he return to the NLL at all?

Look out for

Sean Pollock. Pollock has been a 3+ point-per-game guy for six of the last seven years. Pollock is a righty, so with Powell and Prout (both rightys) gone, Pollock may see a lot more floor time this season.

Prediction

Fourth in the west.

Haiku

Gavin Prout is gone
No Powell or Rory Smith
Westy takes over

2014 preview: Calgary Roughnecks

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RoughnecksThe success the Calgary Roughnecks has seen over the life of the franchise is surprising, in a couple of ways. In their twelve seasons, they have only missed the playoffs once, and that was in their first year. They’ve only had two seasons under .500. They’ve finished with more goals scored than allowed every season but their first. They’ve finished first in their division five times (2013, 2012, 2011, 2009, 2005). And yet with all that regular season success, they’ve only made it to the Championship game twice, winning both of them.

2013 season summary

Record 9-7 (Tied for 1st in West, seeded 1st)
Home 3-5
Away 6-2
Goals for 222
Goals against 211
Top scorer Shawn Evans (112 points)
Playoffs Division semi-finals: Beat Colorado 15-10
Division Finals: Lost to Washington 14-13

Roster changes

Only the Knighthawks made fewer off-season moves than the Roughnecks. In fact, if it weren’t for injuries, there might only have been one – and that one wasn’t even made by the team: defender Nolan Heavenor announced his retirement. Heavenor was one of those fly-under-the-radar kind of defensemen – no glory (not that defenders ever get much glory) but lots of respect from teammates and opponents alike.

Notable names missing from the announced roster include Travis Cornwall, Scott Ranger, and Pete McFetridge, all of whom are on the PUP list, and Scott Carnegie, assigned to the practice squad. Also missing from last year are Joe Resetarits who was traded to Buffalo, and Aaron Pascas who was released. Additions to the roster include Tor Reinholdt and Karsen Leung, both Mann Cup finalists with the Langley Thunder, and a third goaltender – Peter Dubenski, who will play behind Mike Poulin and Frankie Scigliano.

Ranger is a big part of the Roughnecks offense whose absence will be very much noticed, so I find it odd that they didn’t go with another forward on the roster instead of a third goaltender. Their forwards include the likes of Dobbie, Dickson, Shattler, Veltman, and Shawn Evans, so perhaps they’ve decided that they’re fine on offense, but the only other forward on their roster is Matthew Dinsdale, who only got 7 points in 13 games last year. They can’t be sending out 5 of these 6 guys on every offensive shift, so presumably some of the transition guys (Leung, Reinholdt, and Geoff Snider) will be pulled forward for some shifts until Ranger returns.

Burning question

Which Mike Poulin will the Roughnecks see – the 2012 version (Goaltender of the Year, 10.27 GAA, 78.9 Save%), or the 2013 version (12.82 GAA, 74.2 Save%)?

Look out for

Curtis Dickson. Widely regarded as one of the best offensive players anyway, I can see this 50-60 point guy climbing into the 80-90 range. And not just because there are two more games.

Prediction

First in the west.

Haiku

Roughnecks score a lot
Evans was the MVP
But there’s no Ranger

2014 preview: Vancouver Stealth

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Stealth

The Stealth continue their west coast tour. They did six years in San Jose and four in Washington before moving north of the border, and now we’ll see if Vancouver is really the lacrosse town everyone thinks it is. Even if it is and every game is a sellout, the Stealth will still have the lowest attendance in the league, since the Langley Events Centre only holds 5,500 people. The lowest per-game average in the league last year, other than the Stealth, was Edmonton with 6,714. But Stealth ownership knew that when they made this decision, so presumably the lower arena costs and lower travel costs and who knows what else are sufficient reasons for the move even if they guarantee themselves the lowest attendance. Then again, said lowest attendance of 5,500 a game would still be over 30% higher than they had last year.

After a crappy 2012 which saw the Stealth finish dead last and miss the playoffs, they rebounded in a big way in 2013, not only finishing tied for first in the division but heading to their third Championship game in four years. They got about as close as you can get to “worst-to-first” in a year, but lost a one-goal final to the Rochester Knighthawks.

With appearances in three Championship games in four years, the Stealth have become an elite team. If they had won just one more of those games (or not finished last in the one other season), the word “dynasty” might even be floating around. Can they continue this high level of on-field success?

2013 season summary

Record 9-7 (Tied for 1st in West, seeded 2nd)
Home 5-3
Away 4-4
Goals for 193
Goals against 192
Top scorer Rhys Dych (97)
Playoffs Division semi-finals: Beat Edmonton 12-11
Division Finals: Beat Calgary 14-13
Finals: Lost to Rochester 11-10

Roster changes

When the rosters were announced on December 16th, the Stealth’s list was the first I saw, and was my first “holy crap” of the day. Athan Iannucci and Dean Hill, Washington’s #3 and #6 scorers last season, were both released while three rookies made the team. Hill is a veteran of eight seasons, while Iannucci is a former MVP and 100-point player. That said, it’s not like the Stealth released Gary Gait; Nooch only scored 100 points once and his second-highest total was 61. But he averaged 46 points over the last two seasons while Hill averaged 38, so the Stealth must have a lot of confidence in the likes of Cody Bremner, Tyler Digby, and Sean Lundstrom.

Also hoping to add to the Stealth goal totals will be Alex Gajic. Gajic is returning from injury, having missed all of 2013 and most of 2012, but he scored 48 points in each of the previous two seasons with the Mammoth. Alex joins his brother Ilija as the second and third Gajic transplants from Colorado, as Nenad did the same thing two years ago. Nenad only lasted three games with the Stealth in 2012, so here’s hoping Alex and Ilija have better luck.

The Steath will have a new face-off man this year, as Bob Snider was traded. Snider took 96% of the Stealth’s faceoffs last year, winning 61% of them, so whoever takes his place has big shoes to fill.

Also missing will be Tim Henderson. 2nd Lieutenant Henderson graduated from West Point in May and found out in June that he was being deployed to Afghanistan, and so will be unavailable to the Stealth at least until he returns. I don’t know how long his deployment is, but my buddy Google tells me that nine months would likely be the absolute minimum. So he’ll be out until at least March, and that assumes both the shortest possible deployment and that he’s ready to play the instant he returns. Probably safe to assume he won’t be playing in 2014 at all.

Burning questions

I have a couple of questions for this team, one on-floor and one off:

  1. Was releasing Iannucci addition by subtraction? Or will the Stealth be looking for more offense?
  2. Can the lower mainland sustain an NLL team if the ownership is completely on-board (which the Ravens’ ownership was not)? Can an NLL team survive on only 5,500 attendance (best case) per game?

Look out for

Lewis Ratcliff. After two 90+ point seasons, Ratcliff’s production dropped to 76 points in 2012 and 67 in 2013. IL Indoor ranked him 45th on their top 50 players, which means they think there are 44 players in the league – an average of five players per team – better than Ratcliff. That would have been unbelievable only two or three years ago. Is Ratcliff on the downside of his career at the ripe old age of 32? Or did he just have two substandard years? Almost everyone on the Stealth had a substandard year in 2012 – did it simply take Ratcliff an extra year to get back to form? He tweeted recently that he needs glasses – could a 20:20 Ratcliff get back to 90 points?

Prediction

Second in the west.

Haiku

Moved to Vancouver
No Snider but two Gajic’s
Iannucci’s gone

Presenting your 2014 Boston Blazers

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Blazers

As I have done the previous two years, here’s what could be the tenth NLL team, made up entirely of players not currently on an NLL team. These are players who were released, are on practice rosters, or are otherwise unaccounted for on the final rosters released today. It does not include those on the IR, PUP, or holdout lists, or those who have retired. As the NLL teams had to do, I came up with 20 players, and because there were some pretty decent players cut from this list, I added a practice squad as well.

This is, quite honestly, a pretty damned good team. Sure, there are lots of veterans and players that might have lost a step, and they may not match up against the 2007 Knighthawks or 2005 Rock, but when you have teams barely over .500 winning the Championship, a team like this could do very well. In a ten team league, I doubt I’d be picking the Blazers to finish last and they could easily make the playoffs. It’s hard to believe that every player here is unemployed.

Forwards

Mike Accursi
Joel Delgarno
Scott Evans
Dean Hill
Derek Hopcroft
Athan Iannucci
Gavin Prout
Roger Vyse
Luke Wiles

Transition

Kyle Hartzell
Jarrett Park
Paul Rabil
Jarrett Toll

Defenders

Scott Carnegie
Rory Glaves
Ian Hawksbee
Mike McNamara
Jeff Reynolds

Goaltenders

Dan Lewis
Brandon Miller (technically still a franchise player in Philly, but he meets all the criteria above)

Practice Squad

Ryan Hotaling
Brendan Thenhaus (has appeared on both of the previous lists)
Aaron Pascas
Neil Tyacke

Presenting your 2013 Boston Blazers

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BlazersOne of my earliest articles on this blog was a list of players that would be playing in the NLL had the Blazers not folded. This list came from players who I thought were good enough to play in the NLL but were not on NLL rosters. Just like last year, this year’s list includes players who were cut or appear on practice squads, but not those who are injured, are on holdout lists, or have retired.

Forwards

Alex Gajic
Derek Hopcroft
Cam Sedgwick – Oops, retired
Brett Hickey
Jamie Shewchuk
Brendan Thenhaus (interestingly, appeared on last year’s list too before being picked up by the Rock)
Roger Vyse
Jeff Zywicki

Transition

Tom Montour

Defenders

Brendan Doran
Travis Hill
Ian Llord
Eric Martin
Kevin Ross

Goalies

Angus Goodleaf
Chris Seidel

NLL 2013 team previews in haiku

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A list of my 2013 season previews of each team in haiku forum, along with links to the longer form for each.

Buffalo Bandits

Many new Bandits
Chugger’s been a busy guy
JT’s still here, natch

Philadelphia Wings

Rabil, no Dawsons
Transition – or midfielders?
This is box, not field

Rochester Knighthawks

Few changes, but big
With Powell and the Dawsons
The champs have improved

Toronto Rock

Who will protect us?
Pat Campbell retired, but
Scott Evans is here

Calgary Roughnecks

Dave Pym, Kaleb Toth
Both gone, but no one can get
Through the Poulin Wall

Colorado Mammoth

Grant is the leader
Last year was record-setting
Only one Gajic left

Edmonton Rush

Lost Williams, Wilson
But wait, help is on the way
Matthews is the man

Minnesota Swarm

Surprisingly good
Rookies did the job last year
Still getting better

Washington Stealth

Zywicki, Bloom: gone
Lots of rookies join the team
Return to glory?

2013 Preview: Toronto Rock

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RockThe 2012 season was a transition year for the Rock, as the first year of the post-Bob Watson era. As transition years go, finishing first in the East is probably a better result than fans had a right to expect. As the only East team that finished above .500 however, perhaps the Rock capitalized on weak years from the other East teams.

As it turned out, the Matt Roik era lasted just over 1/2 a season. I thought they gave up on Roik a little too quick, but I have to say I’ve been impressed with Nick Rose thus far. I’ve talked to a number of Rock fans who are concerned with the goalie situation for some reason, but Rose went 6-2 in a Rock uniform. The fact that Rose was both Goaltender of the Year and league MVP in the WLA this past summer may hopefully convince skeptical Rock fans that finding a “real” #1 goaltender is a problem that the Rock don’t really have.

Roster changes

A number of changes here and there but the core is the same. Gone are Glen Bryan and Bruce Codd, as well as backup goalie Pat Campbell. Former Bandits captain Chris White joins the defense and rookie Kyle Belton, who played forward during the Edmonton scrimmage and scored three goals, is listed as a defender. Zac Boychuk looks like the backup goaltender, and if you’re a Rock fan but not a WLA fan, you may be interested to know that the first-team and second-team WLA All Star goalies in 2012 were none other than Nick Rose and Zac Boychuk.

On the offense, Jamie Rooney was sent to the Bandits along with Bryan for draft picks. I liked Rooney – I thought he was a dynamic scorer and a welcome addition to the Toronto offense. The Rock also traded Aaron Pascas, who had a pretty good rookie season in 2011 but did not play in 2012. Dan Carey finally had to give into the concussion problems he’s been facing for several years and retire. It’s always unfortunate when a player has to end his career early because of injuries.

Shortly before training camp began, the Rock picked up Scott Evans, who was tossed onto the scrap heap by the Edmonton Rush after they benched him at the end of last season and throughout the playoffs. The message was clear – smarten up and don’t play selfish or you don’t play at all. Evans apparently didn’t get the message and showed up to camp out of shape. I did think at the end of last year that the Rock needed more grit and toughness which Evans can provide in spades, but I’m still not sure about this signing. If Evans does smarten up and provides some offense (and doesn’t expect to be the #1 forward – he’ll be #6 at best), it might be OK. But if he’s contributing two points and six penalty minutes per game, he’s not worth it. I’d keep Evans on a short leash. That said, he did score four goals in the Rock’s pre-season game in Montreal.

There’s been no word on the status of Phil Sanderson, who missed six games last season due to a concussion. There were rumours that his injury was career threatening though the Rock said back in November that he’s “expected to be ready for camp”. He did not play during the scrimmages with Edmonton or Rochester, and begins the season on the IR.

Burning question

My burning question for the Rock concerns Nick Rose, but it’s not “Can Rose be the guy?” because I believe he can. Rock fans were lucky to have seen Bob Watson, possibly the best box lacrosse goalie ever, for so many years. The problem is that they got used to having him back there and now any goalie that plays for the Rock is compared to him. Having a goalie that’s not as good as Whipper isn’t a glaring weakness, it just puts the Rock on a par with other teams. The burning question: will Rock fans come to realize this and get behind Rosey?

Prediction

Second in the east.

Haiku

Who will protect us?
Pat Campbell retired, but
Scott Evans is here

2013 Preview: Rochester Knighthawks

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KnighthawksThe Knighthawks won the NLL Championship in 2012, so obviously they don’t need major changes to their team in 2013, right? Well, what if they add two of the last four NLL MVPs? Have they just made a very good team better, or have they messed too much with the chemistry of a team that was already successful?

Rochester did win the title in 2012, but that doesn’t mean they were the best team. Remember that the Knighthawks finished the regular season 3rd in the East with a 7-9 record, and only won two games in a row once during the regular season. I suppose they did win three in a row when it counted – in the playoffs – but they were not nearly as dominant a team as, say, the Knighthawks team that won the 2007 championship.

Roster changes

Similar to my Philadelphia report, I had this section all done, saying that other than Powell and Rabil, the Knighthawks haven’t made all that many changes. Then they made the Rabil deal and that all changed. On offense, they’re adding Casey Powell and Dan Dawson and losing… nobody. On transition, they added Joel McCready, but lost Jarrett Davis in the first Rabil trade and Jordan Hall, Joel White, and Robbie Campbell in the second. On the defense, Pat McCready retired but Paul Dawson replaces him. Goaltending, Vinc and Henhawk, is unchanged from last year.

Burning question

Take a decent team and add Casey Powell or Dan Dawson and they’ll be better. That’s almost a given. But what happens when you add both? In addition, the Knighthawks were better than decent, and already had a legitimate number one scorer in Cody Jamieson.

By taking a good team and adding (or attempting to add) two superstars, Curt Styres may have been trying to re-create the “Shaq-Kobe” Lakers or “LeBron-Wade-Bosh” Heat. But the Boston Blazers had “the Big Three”, including both Powell and Dawson, and did not bring a championship to Boston. In fact, they never even won a playoff game. My burning question for the Knighthawks is whether Cody Jamieson is still the offensive leader of the team, or does he step back for Dawson?

Prediction

Not sure how I can predict anything other than first in the East for the Hawks.

Haiku

Few changes, but big
With Powell and the Dawsons
The champs have improved