NLL awards: no big surprises except the big surprise

Posted on October 1, 2015 by Graeme

The 2015 NLL awards were announced on Tuesday, only four months after the season ended. This was a dumb idea last year, and it’s a dumb idea this year. I get that they’re trying to raise interest in the league during a quiet time when there’s no other lacrosse going on anywhere, but they can do that with the draft. Handing out the awards the night after the draft marginalizes either the draft or the award, and NLL fans that aren’t die-hard fans probably didn’t even notice. Handing them out during or right after the playoffs makes so much more sense. If you want to have it be a big event rather than just announcing the winners, that’s fine but four months later just doesn’t make sense.

Anyway, on to the winners. With one exception, there were no real surprises in the player awards. Shawn Evans was named MVP for the second time in two years, and deservedly so. Kyle Rubisch won the Kyle Rubisch award again. Kyle Buchanan won the Sportsmanship award after playing 18 games with 0 penalty minutes. Rookie of the Year went to Ben McIntosh, who had an excellent rookie campaign. Josh Sanderson won the inaugural “Pinty’s Wingman of the Year” award, following in the footsteps of the Pinty’s Wingman of the Week award, which unofficially went to the person who picked up the most assists every week.

I’d never even heard of the “Shoeless Joe’s Shot of the Year” award until they announced it – Miles Thompson’s sitting-on-his-butt-over-the-shoulder shot. I can’t decide if that’s an ugly goal that’s also beautiful, or a beautiful goal that’s also ugly.

The exception is the Goaltender of the Year award. Matt Vinc won his fifth in six years, with lots of people wondering why Aaron Bold didn’t get it. I have less of a problem with Vinc taking it. First off, the award is supposed to be based on the regular season only. The playoffs (and the fact that Bold’s Rush won the Championship), the Mann Cup, and the WILC should have no bearing on this award. There’s another reason why the awards should be given out during, not after, the playoffs.

Bold allowed one fewer goal in 13 more minutes but in those extra minutes, he still faced ninety fewer shots than Vinc, and Bold’s save percentage was 2.4% lower than Vinc’s. A very close race, to be sure, and either one could definitely have won it, but to say that Bold should have won because he won three Championships in the same year is just wrong.

The three non-player awards had one gimme, one minor surprise, and one huge one. Terry Sanderson won GM of the Year posthumously, and I’m sure the early death of this much-beloved and respected man played a part in the voting. But he also turned a 9-9 Rock team into a 14-4 powerhouse, the top team in the league. He picked up 50-goal-scorer Brett Hickey off the scrap heap and traded for Brodie Merrill, Brock Sorensen, and Jeff Gilbert to shore up the defense. Posthumous or not, T deserved the award.

Head coach of the year was a bit of a surprise to me, in that I expected Derek Keenan to take this one for the second straight year. Keenan missed the first two games while dealing with the death of his wife, two games that the Rush lost. On his return, the Rush started looking like the Rush of 2014, and Keenan’s influence on that team was obvious. But I don’t want to take anything away from the winner, John Lovell, who also had a great season. The Rock lost only one of their first ten games on their way to a franchise-best 14-4 record, first in the league. Lovell’s leadership allowed the Rock to thrive despite losing Garrett Billings and Colin Doyle, and also allowed the seamless additions of Hickey, Merrill, Sorensen, Gilbert, and Kevin Crowley into the dressing room.

The huge surprise is Executive of the Year. Nominated were Lewis Staats of the Knighthawks, Scott Loffler of the Bandits, and Bruce Urban of the Rush. Wait, what? Bruce Urban? He didn’t really get nominated, did he? Yes, he did. Oh well, he has no real chance of winning it, does he? Yes, apparently he does. And he did.

This is the guy who refused offers from the Oilers to buy the franchise. He complained about the mayor and the city and was called out for it. He effectively threatened the Edmonton fans with relocation during the season. Then once they won the championship, he did move the franchise. Thanks to all of you awesome Edmonton fans for your support during the playoffs! I could sell to the Oilers and make sure the team stays in Edmonton, but screw you, I’m taking my team and getting out.

As Gerry Moddejonge of the Edmonton Sun tweeted, Scott Loffler created the #BraverThanBrave campaign which had the attention (and pulled on the heartstrings) of every NLL player, employee, and fan around the league, while Urban announced a charity event that neither had a winner nor gave anything to charity. Nice.

Maybe this is based on the regular season as well so the actual team movement shouldn’t be considered. But given all the other crap that went on, I can’t believe Urban won. But it was the other executives in the league (AFAIK) that chose him, so perhaps he did lots of stuff behind the scenes that made him worthy. I’m trying to give Urban and the NLL the benefit of the doubt here, but I’m still shaking my head.

My 2016 NLL wish list (Part II)

Posted on June 2, 2015 by Graeme

Yesterday I started my list of things I’d like to see in the NLL next season. Here are some more. Again, remember that this is a wish list, not a prediction list.

All games are available on YouTube – The NLL Live experiment was OK. I complained about it a lot and there were technical glitches, but if they do it again next year, I’ll complain and grumble some more but still get it. But it would be way better for existing fans and to try to pick up new fans if the league went back to YouTube for ALL games. Yes, maybe the league made a few bucks from NLL Live because people had to pay to watch the games, but I’m guessing the number of people who ended up watching games this year was far less than in previous years. Some die hards like me paid for it, but my A2L co-host Melissa, a similar die-hard (you might say she’s addicted to lacrosse), decided it wasn’t worth it. If she’s not going to pay for it, you’re not going to get any new fans that will.

A major TV deal – Duh. This has been on every NLL fan’s wish list for two decades. It doesn’t have to be all the games on NBC, ESPN, or TSN, but at least one or two a week on one of those networks would be good (as long as the rest are on YouTube). And get actual lacrosse guys to do the play-by-play and commentary. Guys like Teddy Jenner, Jake Elliott, and Jason Gregor out west, and Brian Shanahan and Andy McNamara in the east. Not Chris Driscoll.

The Blue Cross Arena gets a new hi-def system installed – It’s good that Vancouver and Rochester are three time zones apart, since games in both the LEC and the BCA are rarely on at the same time. If you were able to switch back and forth between feeds from these two arenas, the difference would be night and day. And not just regular night and day – night and day in the Sahara Desert, where there are no lights with a thousand miles at night and blinding sunshine during the day. LEC feeds are almost always crisp, clear, and high definition while feeds from Rochester are generally terrible. Maybe Santa Styres will leave a new video setup under the Knighthawk tree this Christmas.

Expansion – I think the time is just about right for the NLL to expand. There are more than enough good players to put together another good team, maybe even two. But unlike the Jim Jennings era, the $3 million expansion fee should be step 1 of many, not the only entry criteria. We need committed owners who understand that this is an investment on which they may never make profits but are willing anyway – or NHL ownership, in which case they might actually make a profit. We need a ton of market research on the location. We need a good arena deal. We need a lot of marketing and pumping the new team & brand around the new city – preferably for months before the season starts. There’s a ton to consider. Ideally, all of that can get done in time for the 2016 season, which means they need to start pretty soon. But if not 2016, definitely 2017.

Better social media – The NLL needs to hire Paul Tutka now as Marketing VP or Special Consultant or something and just let him go wild. He’s been tweeting ideas for making the NLL better since last year and is up well over 100 now. Most of them have nothing to do with the product on the floor, but deal with how the league handles Twitter and Facebook, pictures and videos they post, how their web site is organized, things like that. I can’t say I agree with 100% of them, and some of them are vague “Do this better” sort of suggestions, but I do agree with most of them. But I believe social media is a big part of Tutka’s current job, so he’s the expert, not me. He obviously knows lacrosse and the league better than most, so I think his expertise would be invaluable.

A better relationship with other lacrosse leagues – This might be a pipe dream based on how things have always been, but a guy can dream, can’t he? The NLL, MLL, MSL, and WLA all adjusting their seasons to allow players to play in any combination of them (well, maybe not MSL and WLA). Each promoting the others, giving ticket discounts and such. Each talking positively about the others. Wouldn’t it have been cool at the first Rock home game to have the Rock congratulate Miller, Doyle, Gamble, etc. on their Mann Cup victory?

The way it is now is simple – we don’t talk about you, and you don’t talk about us. We’ll all just pretend we’re the only lacrosse league there is. I have even heard that NLL execs are not allowed to mention the MLL by name. I find this difficult to believe, but in a press release this past season (that might have been about Jeremy Noble, I don’t remember), the NLL referred to “the field league” without saying “MLL”. This is simply childish.

Toronto wins their second of four straight championships – I’ve been trying to figure out how I can spin this to be good for the league in general and not just here because I’m a Rock fan. But I can’t. It probably wouldn’t be good for the league as a whole, actually. But it’s my wish list so shut up.

What did I miss? What’s on your wish list?

My 2016 NLL wish list (Part I)

Posted on June 1, 2015 by Graeme

As we wind down the 2015 NLL season, we take some time to look back at the season and reward those who did well. There’s talk of Champions, MVPs, and a bunch of <whatever> of the Year awards, and I’ve done my share of that on this blog, on IL Indoor, and on Addicted to Lacrosse. But now I’m going to look ahead to the 2016 season, beginning just seven short months from now. Here’s my wish list of things I’d like to see in the NLL in 2016. Now remember, this is a wish list, not a prediction list.

There are in no particular order. I started out with 4 or 5 entries, but as I wrote about each one, I thought of another one. Now I’m up to so many I decided to split the list into two.

The Edmonton Rush – I said no particular order, but I think this is still number one. I really want to see the Rush stay in Edmonton. Whether that’s Bruce Urban figuring out a way to stay or the Oilers buying the team, I honestly don’t care though I think the second option would be the best long-term solution.

The Georgia Swarm are successful – I wrote last week about the Georgia Swarm and the challenges that face them. I was rather pessimistic about their chances for success, but I hope I’m wrong.

All players return healthy – Tons of players missed time during 2015, both regular season and playoffs, due to injuries. My wish is that all of them return healthy and 100% for 2016. This includes players who missed the whole season like Kyle Sorensen, Matt Beers, and Curtis Knight; players who missed the end of the season like Callum Crawford and Andrew Suitor; and Cody Jamieson who got hurt in the playoffs. Even Garrett Billings seemed mostly better when he returned but played 8 games and only scored 5 goals. He only had as many as 6 points once in those eight games. This is uncharacteristic for Billings.

We see better lacrosse when all these guys are healthy.

Earlier season – I haven’t decided whether I’d prefer a 16- or an 18-game regular season. I think I’m fine with both. But the season is ending too late – just two years ago, the finals ended on May 11. This year it will be at least June 5th and possibly June 13th. That’s just too long, particularly for players who play in the MLL, MSL, or WLA who’ll miss a good chunk of the season. The MLL season started on April 12, so Toronto and Edmonton players who are also in the MLL (Kevin Crowley, Zack Greer, possibly others) will miss two full months (over half of the season) before they’re available. It’s certainly not up to the NLL to make things easier for other leagues, but they could start their season in early December and get back to finishing up in early-mid May. Speaking of that…

Shorten playoffs – I’d like to see the first and second rounds as single-game elimination (though as a Rock fan, I’m glad that’s not how it is this year), and the finals as the best of 3. Ideally, two of those three would be in the same weekend, but I’m not sure how to do that without a brutal travel schedule in between or back-to-back games in the same city on the same weekend, which would likely result in terrible attendance for at least one of those games.

Reduce bye weeks if possible – Jamie Dawick talked about the this in a recent interview. Three teams from each division means a bye in the first round, and since the Rock had a bye in the last week of the season anyway, the semifinal with Rochester was their first game in over three weeks. And as we discussed on A2L, the Rock weren’t allowed to practice during the playoff bye week, which is silly. Dawick said the lack of games was a huge disadvantage, especially since they were playing the Knighthawks who had played twice in between the last two Rock games and had several practices. It would be nice if something could be done to even this out a bit, though I haven’t been able to come up with a solution.

John Tavares retires – This is not exactly something I want to happen, but something I think probably should happen. John Tavares is probably the best lacrosse player in the history of the NLL. He has an unbelievable 24 seasons in the league – Josh Sanderson and Colin Doyle would have to finish the 2021 season before they’re even tied, and John Grant could score 100 points four times (starting at age 41) and still not catch up. He has so many amazing numbers that I could do a full month of @NLLFactOfTheDay just on Tavares. But Father Time has finally caught up with JT and I think it’s time he hung ’em up. The Bandits are in good hands with Ryan Benesch and Dhane Smith leading the offense, so now’s the right time.

More coming tomorrow.

Georgia: The next big NLL success?

Posted on May 30, 2015 by Graeme

The NLL has announced that it’s returning once again to the place where box lacrosse franchises go to die: the American south. The Swarm are moving from Minnesota to Georgia to become the Georgia Swarm. Presumably the name was not changed so that all the t-shirts and swag that just says “Swarm” or “Hive” doesn’t have to be thrown away.

There’s no way to know how successful this franchise will be until they actually start playing. And by “successful” here, I’m talking about the ability to keep a team in that city for more than a couple of years. Success on the floor will help, but there are two problems there: (1) the Swarm haven’t had much of that over the past few years, and (2) as I mentioned the other day, lots of other NLL teams have folded despite on-floor success.

Let’s take a look at the available data to see if we can make our estimate of success a little more educated.

The NLL has some history in the south, but most of it isn’t so good. There have been five NLL franchises over the years that are south of Denver, Colorado:

San Jose Stealth – The Stealth were in San Jose for 6 years after Albany and before Washington. Their average attendance was 4707 per game. This is only higher than 8 other NLL teams in history – but 3 of those 8 are the Albany Attack, Washington Stealth, and Vancouver Stealth. San Jose also has the honour of hosting the game with the lowest reported attendance in league history: 1437 people came out to watch the Stealth beat the Edmonton Rush 14-6 in 2008.

Arizona Sting – The Columbus Landsharks played 3 seasons before moving to Glendale, Arizona, where they played for 4 years as the Sting. Despite never finishing higher than 9-7, they went to the Championship game twice, losing to the Rock in 2005 and the Knighthawks in 2007 (in the infamous circus game). In attendance, the Sting averaged 6216 per game, right about in the middle of all NLL franchises. For the 2007 Championship game, their last ever game, they managed to pull in almost 10,000 people which is quite respectable.

Anaheim Storm – The Storm played 2 years in Anaheim after a couple of years in New Jersey. They were pretty darned awful though, going 1-15 in 2004, their first season, but improving to 5-11 in 2005. At 4790, their attendance was just higher than that of the San Jose Stealth, but as we know that’s not saying much.

Orlando Titans – The New York Titans spend 3 seasons in the Big Apple before moving to Orlando, where they only lasted one year. On the floor they had success, finishing 11-5 and making it to the Eastern Final where they lost to the Rock. Their attendance was higher than that of both the Sting and the New York Titans at 7035; in fact that puts them in the top half of NLL teams.

Charlotte Cobras – The Cobras spent a single season, 1996, in the league and finished 0-10, losing each game by an average of 10 goals. They had the lowest average home attendance of any team in NLL history, at 2760. Two of the ten lowest-attended games happened in Charlotte.

(Note that Philadelphia almost made this list too: Philly is north of Denver by approximately twelve miles.)

So the Titans and Sting did reasonably well attendance-wise, but the others really didn’t.

Now let’s look at the pros and cons of this situation.

Pros

Rent will be much cheaper at the Gwinnett Center than at the very expensive Xcel Energy Center. Expensive rent is what killed the Blazers, Wings, and New York Titans, and is a major factor in why the Swarm moved and why the Rush may also be moving. If the Swarm don’t have to get rid of players as soon as they become expensive, they might have a chance.
Atlanta is a major airline hub so travel may not be all that bad. Travel to Mohegan Sun is likely a nightmare and Saskatoon wouldn’t be much fun either.
The MLL held their Championship game in Atlanta in 2014, and pulled in over 8,000 people. They are also considering expansion to Atlanta. Of course, field lacrosse popularity in a region rarely seems related to box lacrosse popularity in that region. Right Baltimore? Syracuse? Albany? Charlotte?
The team has lots of young talented players and four first round picks in next year’s entry draft, rumoured to be one of the best ever.

Cons

Atlanta is not known as a great sports town. In 2014, Forbes Magazine listed Atlanta #1 on their list of “Most Miserable Sports Cities” – and it wasn’t their first time at the top of that list. I wrote recently about how NHL ownership of NLL teams seems to be a pretty good model. The NHL has failed in Atlanta twice and currently has no team anywhere near there.
Hopefully travel isn’t bad since every player will be a fly-in. They had a bunch of players move to Minnesota in the past, but that has dwindled in recent years. I suspect they’ll get fewer players willing to move to Georgia.
The team won’t be playing in Atlanta, they’ll be playing at the Gwinnett Center in Duluth, about a half-hour from downtown Atlanta. This is the same setup as the Chicago Shamrox, who played in Hoffman Estates, IL. The Shamrox lasted two seasons. Interestingly, the Shamrox owner’s main reason for folding the team was that it was too hard to run things in Chicago from his home in Atlanta. This kind of suburban setup also didn’t work for Anaheim (outside of Los Angeles) or the Washington Stealth, based in Everett rather than Seattle, and it’s also how the current Vancouver Stealth are set up. The Stealth were last or second-last in attendance for the last 2 seasons (though they apparently have a great deal on rent in the LEC so the low attendance isn’t a problem).
The Arlottas still own and run the team. These are the guys who traded Benesch, Watt, Suitor, and Bilic, among others. They’ve had twelve first-round draft picks in the past four years – almost half of them aren’t on the team anymore. (The Rock, heading to the finals this year, have had one first-round pick in those same four years.) But with that many first rounders, they’ve got to be good now, right? Well, they haven’t made the playoffs in two years. That type of mismanagement isn’t likely to change.

Is is possible the Georgia Swarm will thrive and be a successful franchise? Sure it is. Maybe the cheaper rent will be enough of a change that they don’t have to trade players once they get good and start asking for the money they deserve. Maybe Georgia will turn out to love box lacrosse. But it seems to me that the odds are against them. Call me pessimistic, but I give them two seasons in Georgia before they either move again or fold.

The NLL is a niche league. Get used to it. (Part II)

Posted on May 27, 2015 by Graeme

Yesterday, I talked about how I have given up on the idea that the NLL can be the next major North American sports league. There’s just too much team turnover and financial issues that are unrelated to the product on the floor that I’m no longer convinced this is a problem that can be fixed. But I had an idea…

A possible solution

What if the NLL looked to the NHL for ownership of all new franchises?

The top 3 teams in the NLL in terms of attendance are the Mammoth, Bandits, and Roughnecks – the only NLL teams owned by NHL teams. The advantages are much lower costs – all of the non-lacrosse-specific employees (ticket sales, marketing, HR) could be shared between the two teams – and cross-promotion. Buy Sabres tickets, get a deal on Bandits tickets and vice versa. They could have Bandits ads during more heavily-watched Sabres games on TV. Even NHL stars doing ads – “I played lacrosse growing up and it made me into a better hockey player. You should check these guys out”. With costs fairly low, the NHL teams can pump the NLL teams enough to boost attendance to the point that they’re making money, and in return, the NLL teams get to continue to exist. Win-win.

There has been talk of the Oilers offering to buy the Rush from Bruce Urban but he’s turned them down on a number of occasions, and now their relationship is bad enough that they may not make such an offer again. I don’t know if the Stealth and Canucks have ever had any discussions. I also have no idea what kind of relationship the Flyers and Wings had, but with the talk that the NLL may return to Philadelphia, maybe that’s something that could be explored. The rumours for the Swarm moving to Nashville include the possibility of Predators ownership which might end up being a good thing for the Swarm, even if it sucks hard for the fans in Minnesota.

If they do make a change like this, they’d have to add a grandfather clause since nobody wants to get rid of Styres or Dawick as owners (and I’m not sure I want MLSE running the Rock). The Black Wolves ownership is a little different – there’s no NHL team within 100 miles (Boston is just over 100 miles northeast), but it’s not clear they’re really out to make money directly from the lacrosse team. The Black Wolves owners also own the Mohegan Sun casino where they play, and their goal, first and foremost, is to bring people into the casino. They might be quite happy to lose a bit of money on the team in order to do that.

But let’s face it: nobody is going to consider you a major sports league when you have teams in Langley, Uncasville, Saskatoon, and quite honestly, even Rochester. I know Rochester has been looked at as the Green Bay Packers of the NLL, since both of them fall into the “not even big enough to be a secondary market” category. But if you’re trying to get the president of the New York Rangers to take your call about expanding to the Big Apple (again), mentioning that one of your most successful teams is in Rochester may not help your case.

Don’t get me wrong, I love the Knighthawks (as much as a Rock fan can, anyway) and really want the team to stay there, which brings me to my final point.

Silver lining

Despite what might sound like despair above, I am not giving up on the NLL. I will still be tweeting, facebooking, blogging, and podcasting about it. That will not change. What does seem to have changed is my belief that someday lacrosse players will have one job and only one job – that of lacrosse player. As long as the NLL exists, we will still be talking about weekend warriors and how Joe Laxalot is a teacher / firefighter / stockbroker / whatever during the week. There will likely always be teams moving or folding because the owners don’t want to lose money for years before the team gets good or they still can’t get people into the arena despite success on the floor.

Could it be that this is the death knell of the league? I’ve seen lots of comments saying the league only has a couple of years left before it folds entirely. That could be, but given that not all NLL teams are having these attendance and financial troubles, I’m going to remain optimistic. The NHL option would be great for the NLL but how much incentive is there for the NHL owners to get involved? I imagine it would only be marginally interesting for some NHL teams and not interesting at all for most.

The silver lining here is that the NLL is still a great league full of great players and is still a lot of fun to watch and follow. Are they one of the big five leagues? No, but who cares? Other than issues like “Joe Laxalot can’t play this weekend / season because of work commitments”, it’s not a huge deal. With the Rush and Swarm we’re talking about relocating, not folding; as long as the league isn’t contracting, maybe it’s OK if it doesn’t grow. Yes, there will be team movement, but we’ll have to be content with the league in the places it’s in and not turn up our noses at options like Saskatoon. It’s a smaller market but the lacrosse played there will be just as good.

And I really do hope the league can still grow. But that hope is quickly turning into a wish – something I want to happen, but can do nothing about.

The NLL is a niche league. Get used to it. (Part I)

Posted on May 26, 2015 by Graeme

OK, that’s it. It’s over. Everybody out of the pool. With the Swarm announcing that they’re moving and the Rush announcing that they’re probably moving, I think I’m done with the whole idea of the NLL becoming the fifth major team sport in North America.

For years my hope has been that eventually, the NLL would be up there with the NHL and NBA as one of the major sports leagues in North America. Take hockey, mix in some basketball rules, take the ice away and what’s not to love, right? It’s bound to grow until the players are making millions and everybody knows about lacrosse!

But it never happened. The hope has always been there but reality is setting in, and I am now convinced that it’s not going to happen.

The problem

The bottom line: You can’t be a major sports league with this much team movement. But you can’t get rid of the team movement until you become a major sports league. Obviously there’s a problem there. The alternative is to have a bunch of committed owners who know they are likely to lose money but keep going anyway. The more Curt Styres’s and Jamie Dawicks the league has, the better. But even that isn’t enough. Bruce Urban is just as committed to his team, but look at where the Edmonton Rush are: top of the standings but near the bottom of the attendance list, and on the verge of relocating because they can’t draw enough people.

A few different solutions have been tried. You can’t be a big-time league without teams in the biggest cities, right? New York, Los Angeles (Anaheim), Chicago, Philadelphia, Boston – all failed. Maybe we should try the smaller but still big markets: Phoenix, Baltimore, San Jose, Pittsburgh – all failed. Even supposed lacrosse hotbeds like Syracuse, Vancouver, and Albany have tried and failed. Vancouver was given a second chance, but has come in last or second-last in attendance in each of the last two years. And now they’re talking about Saskatoon, Saskatchewan, a place that most Americans can’t say, let alone find on a map.

There are two categories here. Some of them folded because nobody wanted to see a losing team so attendance was low, and I guess ownership wasn’t willing to give it enough time to get better. Anaheim, New Jersey, Ottawa, and Charlotte (among others) all failed but their teams sucked so it’s at least somewhat understandable. But then there’s the second category, that of teams that failed despite success on the floor. Albany, New York, and Portland each went to the finals. Arizona did it twice. Washington did it three times and won one of them. Boston never got to the finals but were a very good team for three years. It’s frustrating because we can’t say to prospective owners “Yes, you’ll lose money for a couple of years but once your team gets good, you’ll be fine” because there are too many examples of where that hasn’t been true.

Now we have the same thing happening to both Minnesota in the first category (haven’t made the playoffs in 2 years, have only finished above .500 once since 2008) and Edmonton in the second (one of the best teams this year, arguably one of the best in NLL history last year).

The league can’t afford the bigger markets because rent at the big-name arenas is too high. This was a big part of the problems for New York, Philly, and Boston, and also the reason that the Chicago team was based in wherever-the-hell-it-was outside of the city. This is also a big concern for both the Swarm and Rush. Even the Toronto Rock have talked about moving because the rent would be cheaper. But they also know that attendance would plummet, so Jamie Dawick keeps coughing up the big coin to stay at the ACC. The Mammoth, Bandits, and Roughnecks get away with it because they are owned by the same people who own the arena.

Say, that gives me an idea…

Continued tomorrow

Getting in sync

Posted on May 18, 2015 by Graeme

On Saturday night, we saw a goal scored by the Toronto Rock that shouldn’t have counted. Brett Hickey’s buzzer-beater at the end of the second quarter seemed to have gone in a split-second after the buzzer, but the referees who reviewed it couldn’t find definitive proof that the call was wrong, so they had to allow the goal. I don’t fault the refs for this call since they didn’t have sufficient information to call off the goal. But I have a proposed solution to that problem. Quite honestly, this seems like a fairly obvious solution, so there may be a perfectly good explanation for this that I am not aware of, or some huge drawback that I’m missing.

During the last 30 seconds of each quarter of an NLL game, any reset of the shot clock causes it to be disabled. Usually it’s set to 30 but does not run. I have heard countless broadcast announcers mention this: “With fifteen seconds left in the quarter, the shot clock is off.” But this has two significant drawbacks:

Players cannot see the game clock as easily as the shot clock. In some arenas, they may be able to look up at the ribbon board or another display board above the net that’s showing the game clock, but it’s not as close to their field of vision as the shot clock. The “rule” for determining how much time you have left before you must shoot is given by: “Look at the shot clock unless there is less than 30 seconds left in the quarter and the shot clock has been turned off, in which case look at the game clock.” This inconsistency is confusing and unnecessary.
In the case of a goal that’s scored near the end of the quarter and challenged, the referees are much more likely to have the shot clock available in the replay video than the game clock. We saw this with Hickey’s goal on Saturday. This goal was called a goal on the floor and even though it seemed that the ball went in after time ran out, there was no conclusive evidence and so the call on the floor stood. The shot clock was clearly visible in the video but it said 30 and was not moving, so it was of no value.

I propose that when a shot clock reset is signaled by the refs within the last 30 seconds of a quarter, the shot clock should become synchronized with the game clock. For example, if the referee signals that the shot clock should be reset when there are 17.3 seconds left in the quarter, the shot clock would start counting down from 17.3, exactly in time with the game clock. This eliminates both of the problems I described above:

Players could then simply watch the shot clock like they always do and know how much time is left before they must shoot, regardless of how much time is left in the quarter. There’s no “watch this clock unless it’s off in which case watch this other clock that’s harder to see”, it’s always just “watch the shot clock”.
The shot clock is much more likely to be in the frame when the officials are examining the replay to see if the ball went in on time.

This would require no extra work on the parts of the referees or the shot-clock operator. The software could be programmed so that when a shot-clock reset is indicated and less than 30 seconds remain in the quarter, the shot clock would be set to the current remaining time on the game clock.

Alternatively, a light could be installed behind the net, next to the goal lights, that is set to come on as soon as the game clock reaches 0. If in the replay, that light is on before the ball goes in the net, the goal does not count. Oddly, there does appear to be a green light behind the net in Rochester that came on once the time reached 0. This light was either ignored or not seen by the officials, as it clearly came on before the ball entered the net. Note the picture below (tweeted shortly after the game by Brad MacArthur, though I added the red circles) showing the light on and the ball not yet in the net.

For the record, I am a fan of the Toronto Rock. This is not an angry Knighthawk fan saying Toronto’s goal shouldn’t have counted. (This is actually a Toronto fan saying that Toronto’s goal shouldn’t have counted.) I am making this proposal not as a Rock fan but as a lacrosse fan, in the hopes that we can make it easier to get the calls right as often as possible.

As I said, there may be a perfectly good reason why this is not possible. But as far as I can see, this is a fairly simple solution that solves two problems, makes things easier for players; officials; and fans, and has no drawbacks that I am aware of.

Shawn Evans: Best player, MVP, or both?

Posted on April 8, 2015 by Graeme

Shawn Evans is having an amazing year. He’s currently 4th in the league in goals, 2nd in assists, and first in points. He’s averaging 7.5 points per game, and is on pace for 135 points, blowing the current record of 116 out of the water. The next closest player in points is 16 back (in one more game) and the next closest in points per game is almost a full point behind. He’s leading the league with 5 shorthanded goals, the same number or more than three teams. He is leading the Roughnecks in points by 31. So he’s a strong candidate for MVP, right?

Well yes, except for the fact that the Roughnecks are in last place in the league and are currently in last in the West, which could mean no playoffs for the Roughnecks for the first time since their debut season in 2002. Can you give the MVP award to a player on a team that doesn’t make the playoffs?

It has happened once in the NLL. In 2001 John Tavares won his 3rd MVP award for (guess who?) the Buffalo Bandits. That year, he set the points record of 115 which stood for over 10 years and outscored the Gait brothers (who tied for #2) by 25 points. But the Bandits were 5th in the league with an 8-6 record, a game out of 4th. Only 4 of the 9 teams made the playoffs at that time, and the Bandits just missed. There were four teams below them in the standings. Six of the 9 teams make the playoffs now, and there ain’t nobody below the Roughnecks.

It’s hard to answer the question of whether Evans is deserving of the MVP award until you decide what MVP really means, and this comes up near the end of every season as well as every baseball season, hockey season, any sport that features an MVP award. The CFL wisely calls theirs the “Most Outstanding Player” award, so they don’t need to define “valuable”. But we do. Should the MVP award simply go to the best player? Or it it truly based on how “valuable” the player is to their team?

Maybe the award just go to the top scorer; that’s certainly been the trend of late. The last three MVPs (Jamieson, Evans, Grant) were also the top scorer of the year.

Actually, it’s not just a recent thing; it’s been the trend all along. There have been 21 MVP awards given out by the NLL. The winner has been either #1 or #2 in the scoring race 16 of those times (and #3 once). In fact, a purely defensive player has only won twice – Steve Dietrich in 2006 and Jim Veltman in 2004. Chicks dig the long ball.

By that standard, Evans is the MVP, almost without question. But is he actually the most “valuable” player? Does he mean more to his team than anyone else? That’s harder to argue. A player being “valuable” to his team implies that his team had some significant level of success, or their value wouldn’t be much. The Roughnecks could have missed the playoffs and ended up last with or without Evans. Would the Rush be where they are without Mark Matthews or Aaron Bold? What about the Rock without Josh Sanderson? Or the Knighthawks without Matt Vinc?

But if history is any indication, “Most Valuable Player” is simply the name of the award. If it was truly named after who receives it, it should actually be called the National Lacrosse League Best Offensive Player Unless No Offensive Player Has A Really Standout Season And A Defensive Player Does award. The season isn’t over yet and so we can’t say for sure but for my money, Evans is at the top of the short list, regardless of how the Roughnecks finish.

Top 5 non-surprises of 2015

Posted on March 25, 2015 by Graeme

Earlier this week, I listed the top 5 surprises of this season, so now it’s time for the top 5 non-surprises. Here are things that happened that we probably could have foreseen.

5. Ben McIntosh and Miles Thompson having strong rookie years

The #1 and #2 picks in last year’s draft, big things were expected from McIntosh and Thompson and they have not disappointed. Coincidentally, both are sitting at 43 points right now (McIntosh has one more goal and one fewer assist) though Thompson has played one more game than McIntosh. In fact, they only differ by 2 in power play goals, by 11 in shots, by 4 in loose balls, and by 1 in penalty minutes. They’re having the same season. Big question I can’t answer yet: how on earth do we pick between them for Rookie of the Year?

4. Edmonton playing strong defensively

The Rush are giving up an average of just under 10 goals per game, ½ a goal better than anyone else (and 5½ better than the Stealth). Aaron Bold’s GAA of 9.36 is the lowest of anyone who’s played more than 19 minutes (hi Angus Goodleaf!) and he’s 5th in save %. Still, even with these outstanding numbers, Bold’s GAA is half a point higher than last year and the team is allowing 1.2 more goals per game than last year, which just tells you how amazing the 2014 Rush were.

3. Brett Hickey scoring a bunch

Brett Hickey’s career stats before the 2015 season: 5 goals, 5 assists, 9 games, 2 Stealths (Washington in 2012 and Vancouver in 2014). So far this season: 33 goals, 15 assists, 13 games. But as I said in the Top 5 Surprises article, Hickey has been lighting up the WLA for two years, finishing in the top 10 in scoring twice. I certainly thought he’d improve on his 1.11 points per game pace, and I read a number of tweets and blog articles before the season talking about how Hickey was going to light up the NLL as well. I have to admit that I didn’t expect these kind of numbers, but the fact that he’s doing well is not a big surprise.

2. Jeremy Noble traded to Colorado

We knew that Noble wasn’t going to play for the Knighthawks. We knew that he lives in Denver and plays for the Outlaws in the MLL. And we knew that the Mammoth had an interest (and who wouldn’t?). So it was almost just a matter of time before this deal got made, and as I said on Addicted to Lacrosse a couple of weeks ago, it looks like a good deal for both teams. Another big question I can’t answer yet: could Noble be the Rookie of the Year after playing at most 9 games?

1. Dhane Smith emerges as an offensive star

Over his two NLL seasons, Smith has shown himself to be a great offensive player, but the Bandits decided to use him on defense and transition a lot. This was not a terrible decision; he’s very good in that role as well. (And it’s not the first time the Bandits have done this – they made Mark Steenhuis a transition player after a 50-goal 101-point season followed by a 90-point season.) But when they chose to have Smith play a primarily offensive role this season, we all knew the effect he’d have and the numbers he’d put up. And Smith has delivered. After two seasons averaging a little over 3 points per game, he is currently averaging 5.38 points per game and is tied with Ryan Benesch for both the team lead and 4th on the overall scoring list. This surprises me not at all.

Top 5 surprises of 2015

Posted on March 23, 2015 by Graeme

We’re about halfway through the 2015 season, and many of the unusual things that always happen at the beginning of the season have sorted themselves out. Nobody’s winless. Nobody’s undefeated. Nobody’s on pace for 180 points. But as always, there are a few things left over that have not sorted themselves out. Here are the top 5 surprises at the mid-way point of the 2015 season:

5. John Tavares’s scoring drought

Due to injuries, John Tavares has only played 7 of the Bandits’ 13 games so far this season, but that’s not the surprising part. What’s surprising is that he only has 17 points. Tavares has averaged 5.8 points per game over 23 seasons and is not only less than half that this year, his 2.4 points per game is a drop of 3/4 of a point per game from last year.

4. Johnny Powless’s scoring drought

When Johnny Powless was brought in to Vancouver, they billed him as the Next Big Thing, the offensive superstar-to-be that was going to help them win Championship after Championship. Of course they didn’t explicitly say those things, but the implications were clear. After 10 games, Powless only has 7 goals and has only scored more than one in a game once. Not only is he nowhere near the league leaders in points, but he’s third on the team, tied with Corey Small who’s played three fewer games in a Stealth jersey. He does have 31 assists, good for 2nd on the team and 14th in the league. This is not to say Powless has been a bust in Vancouver, but if you were expecting him to light up the nets and become half of the one-two scoring punch with Rhys Duch, that’s not what’s happened.

3. Toronto not missing Billings or Doyle

Nobody would deny that Garrett Billings was one of the league’s top players over the last few years, or that Colin Doyle has been one of the best ever. So a team with a .500 record who loses those two players and replaces them both with one guy from the Vancouver Stealth scrap heap will suffer, right? Actually, just the opposite.

I’m certainly not arguing that the Toronto Rock is a better team because they are without Billings and Doyle. But it’s safe to say that they’ve dealt with the losses rather well. The emergence of Brett Hickey has been a somewhat unexpected windfall – I say “somewhat” because Hickey has been in the top 10 in WLA scoring for the past two years, and finished 4th in scoring last year. It’s not as if nobody expected him to do well in the NLL, but Hickey’s on pace for 45 goals and 66 points. I’m sure many people are not surprised by those numbers but I was. Pleasantly.

Rob Hellyer had a breakout season in 2014 and hasn’t just continued that strong play, he’s exceeded it. Hellyer is averaging 6.62 points per game, third in the league behind Shawn Evans and Mark Matthews, and a full two points per game higher than last year. Stephen Leblanc and Kasey Beirnes are each averaging a half-point per game higher than last year, Kevin Ross is only 2 points behind Beirnes and has played 13 games compared to last year’s 2, and of course Josh Sanderson is having an outstanding year as well, on pace to be his best since 2010.

Rob Hellyer got injured this past weekend and there’s been no word on his status, but talk immediately started about the possibility of Garrett Billings returning to the team. I also heard a rumour today that Colin Doyle may be back before the year is out. But if none of those things happen and Hellyer is back by next weekend, it seems unthinkable that Billings and Doyle could sit out an entire season and not be missed.

2. Who’s not playing

You could make up a team with all the players not playing in the NLL this year for various reasons and it’d be a damn good one. The aforementioned Billings and Doyle are obviously two of the biggest names, but there are lots of others. We’ll start with Matt Beers, Kyle Sorensen, Tim Henderson, Alex Gajic, and Kyle Belton – and that’s just the Stealth. We also have Mike Grimes, Curtis Knight, Garrett Thul, Jamie Rooney, Scott Jones, Cam Flint, Jimmy Purves, Matt Roik, and half of last year’s Philadelphia Wings.

Lewis Ratcliff retired after 4 games, and Athan Iannucci was released after being benched for a few. Shawn Williams was signed by the Rock and then cut before the season began, but I happen to know that he’s been working out and keeping in shape, hoping for a phone call.

An impressive list. And that’s not even including the big-name players who retired after last year, including Ryan Ward, Tracey Kelusky, and Scott Ranger.

1. Calgary in dead last

I think the most surprising thing about the 2015 season, hands down, is the Calgary Roughnecks. They began the season 0-6 thanks in part to a brutal start by Mike Poulin, who had a GAA over 17 after three games and lost the starting goaltender’s job. It’s not as if the team was completely terrible; they lost two in OT and another by a single goal. All the time, Shawn Evans was at or near the top in scoring but neither Dane Dobbie nor Jeff Shattler exceeded 5 points in a game until their 7th or 8th game.

They seem to have pulled it together since then, having won 3 of their last 5 including a 20-9 blowout of the early-peaking New England Black Wolves. Poulin has pulled his GAA down to 13.75 after a few good starts. But the team is still 3-8 so they’d have to almost run the table just to end up at .500.

No team who’s started the season 0-6 has ever made the playoffs in the NLL. But given the Stealth’s inconsistency so far and the fact that they only have to finish higher than one team in the West, it’s still not out of the question for the Roughnecks.

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